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Replies: 617
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 27 Jul 18 17:03
It's probably top again with that 72 figure from November, ie 0-75 class, down in 0-60 now.
By:
ProSniper
When: 27 Jul 18 17:05
Grin
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 27 Jul 18 17:06
Mind the cliff, Snipey! Right, here's Wolv, Sun:

    29/07/2018 Wolverhampton 13:20 6f20y 0-55 3yo+ 6                                                           
                                                               
    8        Gettin' Lucky        66        Chel_6_3   03May18        48        Wolv_7_5   09Jul18        46        Newc_5_6   12Jan18   
    12        Ingleby Molly        63        Wolv_6_3   08Jun18        52        Newc_7_5   24Jul18        51        Wolv_5_3   13Jan18   
    10        Burauq        62        Kemp_6_2   16Jan18        61        Wolv_6_2   11Aug17        60        Kemp_6_3   05Jan18   
    3        Evanescent        62        Ling_7_2   24Jan18        54        Ling_8_9   30Dec17        48        Wolv_7_8   14May18   
    4        Culloden        61        Chel_5_2   29Mar18        61        Wolv_5_3   05Apr18        61        Ling_5_10   23Dec17   
    11        Billy's Boots        58        Kemp_5_2   03Oct17        58        Ling_6_4   19Jul17        56        Wolv_5_5   08Jun18   
    2        Soldier Blue        58        Newc_7_6   30Jun17        58        Wolv_7_7   18Jul18        56        Wolv_6_5   06Jun18   
    6        Prezzie        54        Ling_8_1   21Jun18        48        Chel_8_7   07Jul18        45        Wolv_6_6   14Aug17   
    9        Henrietta's Dream        51        Newc_5_5   29Jul17        51        Wolv_6_6   09Jul18                   
    7        Blistering Dancer        47        Wolv_6_8   13Dec17        46        Ling_6_4   26Feb18                   
    13        Felstead Knight        42        Ling_6_8   14Feb18        41        Ling_7_6   24Jan18        38        Kemp_6_8   24Oct17   
    1        Coiste Bodhar                                                   
    5        Time Medicean                                                   

                                                               
    29/07/2018 Wolverhampton 15:20 7f36y 0-60 3yo 6                                                           
                                                               
    3        Chloellie        66        Kemp_6_4   04Jul18        62        Kemp_6_1   04Apr18        62        Wolv_6_2   30Apr18   
    6        Javelin        62        Wolv_9_4   18Jul18        57        Wolv_7_9   30Apr18        53        Wolv_7_4   25Jun18   
    1        Medici Oro        62        Wolv_7_1   09Jul18        54        Chel_7_5   31Jan18        52        Newc_6_9   19Oct17   
    7        Elite Shadow        62        Kemp_6_2   03Feb18        51        Newc_6_4   16Feb18        51        Kemp_7_11   18Apr18   
    8        Strategic        59        Chel_7_5   01Dec17        57        Wolv_7_3   09Jul18                   
    2        Ventura Crest        55        Chel_8_6   07Jul18        51        Newc_8_5   19Apr18                   
    9        Nikita        54        Wolv_6_4   02Jul18        52        Wolv_7_4   09Jul18        46        Kemp_6_6   13Dec17   
    4        Foxrush Take Time        53        Newc_8_4   19Apr18        47        Wolv_7_3   18Nov17        47        Newc_8_8   28Jun18   
    11        Angie B        52        Newc_7_8   12Sep17                                   
    5        Jazz Magic        50        Newc_7_4   24Jul18                                   
    10        Magic Ship        49        Newc_6_9   19Oct17        41        Newc_7_9   10Oct17        39        Wolv_8_6   02Jul18   
    12        More Harry        31        Wolv_12_7   14May18        24        Kemp_7_13   22Nov17                   
By:
ProSniper
When: 27 Jul 18 17:18
Gettin Lucky Plain another cliffy hoss. Parachute at the ready for the weekend.. Excited
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 28 Jul 18 00:05
9.1% SR? WALOFS
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 02:43
What I found years ago is obvious to everyone regarding Southwell that it's very much a specialist surface so whenever doing those meetings concentrate heavily on the form there and the suitable pedigrees mainly AW dirt and other course proven down the lines.
I realised though that the surface can be so different from one meeting to the next that was causing alot of the big form turnarounds especially between extremes of riding on the fast and slow side you'd get runners that were specialists in each and also didn't perform the best either despite having course form.
Another thing is they rarely change the going description nowadays despite the surfaces riding slower or quicker which you can judge only in hindsight unless it's been very cold you can second guess that they'll harrow deeper and it'll ride slower.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 02:53
What do you make of the Southwell times from Jan 5th this year? I think they sometimes change the distances around without telling us.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 02:58
What you say there is basically true, but I'm sure it's become more inconsistent now than it was back in the day, whenever that was.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:00
I'm doing these examples off memory not an aftertiming parade just examples of scenarios:

Moonlight Venture 21/1/16 won over 7f they called it standard but the track rode st/slow (RP -0.33) 5.45 above standard
Ran again 14/2/16 7th btn 7 3/4l over 7f standard again though (RP 0.0) 2.89 above standard
Turned out quickly 16/2/16 7f won by 7l track riding st/slow imo. (RP -0.16) 3.38 above standard but there was a crosswind that warped the times the rest were varying slow times.
Others involved at the time were running way below form on these days in particular and the above winning distance shows a marked preference for the slower surface for Moonlight Venture.
There are others but this is knackering work,also found that the Soft ground turf runners did perform better on the slower days but not so much on the others despite what is the common opinion.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:01

Jul 29, 2018 -- 2:53AM, womenandthosewithnointerestinracing wrote:


What do you make of the Southwell times from Jan 5th this year? I think they sometimes change the distances around without telling us.


2 minutes

By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:03
might take longer than that to get to the bottom of it, esp at this time
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:05
The strange thing about that date is that I thought some of the times were too quick so I timed them myself and actually came out with a quicker time still.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:06
The thing that stands out for me instantly is that the weather was heavy cloud and rain so I presume that the surface would've been compacted which as you know can happen speeding it up,the RP allowance is +0.52/f.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:07
Those 6f times are a bit iffy but there was a light crosswind and depending on how long they face it or have it behind them can balls up any calculations.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:12
Nothing out of the ordinary on the stewards report regarding distances etc. other than they have the official going as standard Grin
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:12
Even more iffy if you time them yourself, and ok the surface/wind would have been conducive to a very fast time, but the variances are absolutely wild compared with what you'd get on poly/tapeta. Seems impossible to do reliable figures there now.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:14
And the straight 5f course has always been problematic.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:16
Mightn't be a bad thing to leave Southwell punting wise all the usual obvious ones are shortened by 6pm the day before mightn't be the goldmine it once was.
The biases on the 5f course are a nightmare alone without the gales warping the allowances.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:19
Well I'll carry on having the odd punt there, but non speed fingers based. I'll stick to C,K,L,W for those.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:21
Floodlights coming in soon, more cards to play with.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:24
Another thing I'm going to do is start backing the top 2 rated, not just the top 1.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:24
Aye got to use more lateral thinking at Newcastle/Southwell for value but especially Newcastle.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:25

Jul 29, 2018 -- 3:24AM, womenandthosewithnointerestinracing wrote:


Another thing I'm going to do is start backing the top 2 rated, not just the top 1.


Has the top rated per track made any difference? Or top c/d?

By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:26
Newcastle I'll go back to having the odd punt on hold up types on the round course.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:29

Jul 29, 2018 -- 3:25AM, DenzilPenberthy wrote:


Jul 29, 2018 --  3:24AM, womenandthosewithnointerestinracing wrote:Another thing I'm going to do is start backing the top 2 rated, not just the top 1.Has the top rated per track made any difference? Or top c/d?


Sample size too small, also I have in the past felt I've gone too far down the over -filtering alley.

By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:30
The ones where I saw an obvious bias was the hold ups over the straight mile but what they started doing was going too slow so everything that needed cover and a fast pace pulled like trains,but when you've got horses like Testa Rossa improving the way it did it had to have something going for it.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:31
But wrt to the 2nd rated, these have outperformed the top rated so far, and backing 2 per race obviously cuts down the losing runs. But I'll continue to account for just the top rated here as that's what I sayed the rules are at the start.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:32
Testa Rossa equally as good over 10f, and on the round course they'll win from behind however slow they go (this years plate excepted)
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:35
Thanks I'll keep that in mind as haven't been watching so much racing or betting you miss those edges that you'd otherwise be aware of.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:38
Well I haven't actually continued to watch Newc through the summer so don't take as gospel. No Ebor market on here, I was just looking out of interest because I was wondering how much Mr Bloom still thought he had up his sleeve.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:39
Can I be so bold as to advise FC's and Ex's with your top 2's they've been profitable for me the last few years and I'm sure they will be for you also.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:43

Jul 29, 2018 -- 3:38AM, womenandthosewithnointerestinracing wrote:


Well I haven't actually continued to watch Newc through the summer so don't take as gospel. No Ebor market on here, I was just looking out of interest because I was wondering how much Mr Bloom still thought he had up his sleeve.


Boat missed here 5/1 looked too big so left the race,originally they were talking of Melbourne Cup glory so off 107 could still be ahead that t1t Charlton coupled with the price managed to sway my judgement.

By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:44
Not keen on the FCs route (even if I could get them on to more than a few pence). Have I missed something re Withhold? Ebor entry but not listed on the oddschecker.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:47
https://www.racinguk.com/news/melbourne-cup-could-be-next-stop-for-withhold

I'd just written a paragraph Crazy
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 03:51
Roger Charlton does not believe Withhold needs to run again before the Melbourne Cup in November.

Aussie Jim choking on his fosters at that statement.

Anyways, gn from me and if you don't hear from me tomorrow then it's probably the wee little forum sheriff going through with his promised crackdown.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 03:54
Sticking with Bloom that Flaming Spear was a bit naughty yesterday played up at the start then pulled like a train and didn't find has a Steward Cup entry hood next me thinks.
Aye no problem I'm sure all will be sorted peer pressure might induce some redemption goodnite.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 14:03
30/07/2018 Lingfield 13:50 6f1y 0-85 3yo+ 4                                                           
                                                               
    1        Kasbah        80        Ling_5_6   12Dec17        79        Ling_6_2   30Dec17        79        Ling_6_4   19Jan18   
    5        Big Time Maybe        73        Wolv_5_1   28Oct17        72        Wolv_5_2   31May18        71        Kemp_5_1   03Oct17   
    7        Roundabout Magic        73        Ling_5_1   23Dec17        67        Ling_5_2   12Dec17        64        Wolv_5_6   07Feb18   
    4        How Far        70        Wolv_5_4   05Apr18        61        Chel_6_4   26Apr18                   
    2        Giant's Treasure        67        Wolv_7_3   25Jun18                                   
    3        Monks Stand                                                   
    6        Akbar Shah                                                   

                                                               
    30/07/2018 Lingfield 16:50 5f6y 0-55 3yo+ 6                                                           
                                                               
    3        Spin Top        68        Chel_6_3   02Nov17        66        Chel_6_5   18Jan18        61        Wolv_5_7   29Nov17   
    2        Ask The Guru        67        Ling_5_7   23Dec17        64        Wolv_5_1   12Feb18        64        Ling_5_1   19Jul17   
    6        Flowing Clarets        62        Ling_5_2   18Jul18        50        Ling_6_8   17Nov17                   
    8        Celerity        60        Wolv_6_3   16Mar18        59        Wolv_5_4   08Jun18        53        Wolv_6_4   24Mar18   
    7        Deer Song        59        Kemp_5_1   03Oct17        59        Kemp_5_2   26Jan18        54        Kemp_6_7   05Jan18   
    5        Hurricane Alert        59        Chel_5_3   15Mar18        56        Ling_5_2   04May18        56        Chel_5_3   29Mar18   
    1        Archie Stevens        59        Kemp_5_3   18Oct17        56        Wolv_5_6   10Mar18        53        Wolv_5_6   31Oct17   
    9        Dollywaggon Pike        52        Ling_5_5   04May18                                   
    10        Prince Rock        44        Kemp_7_11   27Jun18        35        Kemp_7_12   27Sep17        30        Kemp_6_10   09Oct17   
    4        Toni's A Star        43        Wolv_5_9   23Sep17                                   

                                                               
    30/07/2018 Wolverhampton 18:15 6f20y 0-75 3yo+ 5                                                           
                                                               
    8        A Sure Welcome        72        Wolv_6_1   11Nov17        72        Wolv_6_2   09Dec17        68        Wolv_5_1   21Apr18   
    4        The Amber Fort        72        Wolv_6_2   24Feb18        71        Wolv_7_3   17Jul17        69        Wolv_7_2   05Feb18   
    2        Delilah Park        72        Wolv_7_2   05Mar18        64        Wolv_7_1   29Nov17        63        Kemp_6_4   13Apr18   
    6        Varsovian        71        Wolv_6_1   10Jul18        71        Ling_7_3   02Feb18        69        Wolv_6_4   24Feb18   
    10        Jorvik Prince        71        Wolv_5_1   22Dec17        71        Chel_5_3   31Jan18        69        Chel_5_3   22Mar18   
    7        Central City        70        Wolv_6_1   09Sep17        70        Ling_7_7   03May18        63        Wolv_7_2   20Nov17   
    1        Katheefa        70        Wolv_6_2   16Jul18        69        Newc_6_2   29Jun18        29        Newc_6_1   04May18   
    9        Our Man In Havana        69        Kemp_6_2   27Jan18        69        Wolv_5_4   13Jan18        67        Wolv_5_2   28Oct17   
    5        Kamra        69        Wolv_5_4   26Feb18        67        Wolv_5_3   24Mar18        65        Chel_7_3   28May18   
    12        Nibras Again        69        Chel_7_2   12Apr18        64        Chel_7_5   28May18        62        Kemp_8_7   16Aug17   
    3        Lexington Times        68        Newc_6_6   20Mar18        60        Wolv_6_6   05Apr18                   
    13        Invisible Storm        65        Wolv_6_4   14Apr18        64        Wolv_6_1   18Jul18                   
    11        Royal Connoisseur        63        Wolv_6_1   09Jul18                                   

                                                               
    30/07/2018 Wolverhampton 18:50 7f36y 0-65 4yo+ 6                                                           
                                                               
    2        Showdance Kid        71        Wolv_7_2   23Sep17        67        Wolv_7_3   02Apr18        66        Chel_7_1   06Apr18   
    3        Pushkin Museum        70        Wolv_6_1   04Jan18        66        Wolv_6_3   11Jul17        65        Wolv_6_4   10Jul18   
    4        Viola Park        69        Chel_7_2   08Dec17        67        Wolv_7_1   14Feb18        67        Kemp_7_2   13Dec17   
    1        De Little Engine        69        Chel_7_1   06Jul18        67        Wolv_7_3   18Jul18        66        Wolv_7_1   09Jul18   
    12        Nellie's Dancer        69        Chel_6_2   07Sep17                                   
    9        Grey Destiny        67        Wolv_7_1   13Dec17        67        Wolv_7_2   27Oct17        64        Wolv_7_4   08Jan18   
    11        The King's Steed        66        Wolv_8_2   21Oct17        63        Ling_8_3   04Apr18        62        Chel_8_1   31Mar18   
    8        Pass The Cristal        64        Chel_7_4   28Sep17        61        Chel_8_1   06Oct17        60        Chel_8_4   15Dec17   
    6        Artscape        61        Kemp_6_5   24Oct17        48        Wolv_7_8   10Jul18                   
    7        Tennessee Belle        59        Chel_8_7   26Sep17        59        Kemp_8_7   22Aug17        45        Chel_8_4   05Apr18   
    5        Counter Spirit        48        Kemp_7_3   16Aug17                                   
    10        Alqalsar        38        Wolv_7_8   09May18                                   

                                                               
    30/07/2018 Wolverhampton 19:25 7f36y 0-80 3yo+ 4                                                           
                                                               
    3        Nezar        75        Kemp_7_2   13Jun18        74        Wolv_7_1   24Mar18        73        Kemp_6_2   07Nov17   
    9        Executive Force        73        Chel_8_6   21Jun18        70        Chel_8_8   07Jul18        60        Chel_8_8   15Mar18   
    11        Energia Flavio        72        Wolv_7_2   24Mar18        72        Wolv_7_2   31Aug17        72        Wolv_8_3   28Mar18   
    10        Al Reeh        70        Chel_7_7   25Jul17        68        Kemp_8_10   23May18        67        Kemp_8_7   04Jul18   
    7        Kommander Kirkup        66        Newc_6_2   19Oct17        50        Newc_6_13   03Nov17                   
    5        Art Echo        66        Wolv_7_1   10Jul18                                   
    1        Cape Icon        62        Kemp_7_10   22Aug17                                   
    2        Chaplin Bay        61        Newc_7_1   30Mar18        57        Newc_7_2   01May18        51        Newc_8_8   24Jul18   
    8        Glenglade        58        Chel_8_6   24May18                                   
    12        Sebastiano Ricci        55        Wolv_7_5   16Jul18                                   
    6        Mudawwan        38        Kemp_8_12   04Jul18                                   
    4        Evening Attire                                                   

                                                               
    30/07/2018 Wolverhampton 21:00 1m142y 0-65 mdn 3yo+ 6                                                           
                                                               
    1        Sir Gnet        71        Wolv_9_3   18Aug17        70        Wolv_8_2   14May18        70        Wolv_9_2   09Sep17   
    3        Admiral Spice        70        Wolv_9_3   14Apr18        62        Newc_8_3   19Sep17        56        Newc_7_4   12Sep17   
    10        Noneedtotellme        68        Wolv_7_6   16Mar18        63        Wolv_8_3   09Apr18        62        Wolv_8_2   28Mar18   
    8        Ganton Par        61        Wolv_6_6   18Jul18                                   
    5        World Breaker        60        Kemp_8_8   07Nov17        57        Kemp_8_4   11Jul18        46        Wolv_8_5   28Apr18   
    7        Good Impression        55        Kemp_10_2   26Jan18        43        Ling_12_5   26Feb18        41        Ling_12_4   17Feb18   
    6        Putto        52        Kemp_8_6   04Apr18        45        Wolv_8_7   10Mar18                   
    2        Mabaady        35        Wolv_7_9   10Jul18                                   
    9        Lazizah        0        Chel_8_9   07Sep17                                   
    4        Agadeer                                                   
    11        Wavepoint                                                   
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 15:07
Just looked at the 320 thought I'd spin up a few quid singles/combos as the prices are fine.
Stuck in Elite Shadow on his Kempton run,Chloellie top rated ran well from the rear last time unexposed at the trip and have slung in Jazz Magic on his Newcastle run was comparable to Ingleby Molly (same C/D and day) looked like he can do better,no biggy if they bombGrin
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 29 Jul 18 15:12
GL Den. I'll be throwing Javelin in as well now.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 29 Jul 18 15:14

Jul 29, 2018 -- 3:12PM, womenandthosewithnointerestinracing wrote:


GL Den. I'll be throwing Javelin in as well now.


Pardon the pun.

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