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AW speed ratings

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By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 30 Jul 18 14:47
1000GNS Laugh
Will get a mile standing on it's head had plenty in the tank shame there wasn't a decent class 2/3 on the card for some more perspective but could easily be a 90's horse now.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 14:54
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this one lining up at Ling on good friday.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 30 Jul 18 14:56
Update at Goodwood going stick 6.7 good/g/f in places on the RC.
My going stick data says otherwise Crazy
Agree 100% his campaign will be interesting given the good prize money on the AW I'd be plotting down that route.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 15:55
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing,

What method do you use to store your ratings and therefore how do you get them into the very neat formats above?
n.b I make jorvik prince 3pts (1pt = one length = 0.2s @ 1mile) in wolv 6.15
W6.50 Agree, loads on same top rating
w7.25 Energia top rated by 2pts
w9.00 Sir Gnet top rated by 3pts
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:00
All done in excel, CW. Gimme a few minutes and I'll put up an example from yesterday.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:03
And thanks to T2R's thread on Labs Chat for how to post the tables from excel on here.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:14
    29/07/2018        14:50        Wolverhampton (AW)_Visit mymedsuk.com Maiden Stakes_(Class 5) (3yo+) (7f36yds) 7f Standard To Slow_1st £3,752.02 2nd £1,116.50 3rd £557.96 4th £278.98_    12 ran Winning time: 1m 27.20s (slow by 1.10s) Total SP: 113%_                                                                         Var:        6.6                7f36yds        2        5        0        1540   
    1        (2)                Documenting 9/4F        5    9-7         Kevin Frost        Jason Watson5        79        Soon led, quickened clear over 2f out, shaken up inside final furlong, comfortably (tchd 2/1 and tchd 5/2)        84                        84.30279898        84                29/07/2018        Documenting        84        Wolv_7_1   29Jul18   
    2        (8)        4½        Solar Gold (IRE) 4/1        3    9-0         Charles Hills        Callum Shepherd        79        Prominent, chased winner over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no impression (op 5/)        77        4.5        4.5        77.26726599        77                29/07/2018        Solar Gold        77        Wolv_7_2   29Jul18   
    3        (4)        2¼        Wilbury Twist 100/30        3    9-0         Roger Varian        David Egan                Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace (op 4/1 tchd 3/1)        74        2.25        6.75        73.74949949        74                29/07/2018        Wilbury Twist        74        Wolv_7_3   29Jul18   
    4        (5)        6        Spiced 16/1        3    9-0         William Haggas        Liam Jones                Held up, headway 2f out, not trouble leaders (tchd 10/1 and tchd 18/1)        64        6        12.75        64.36878883        64                29/07/2018        Spiced        64        Wolv_7_4   29Jul18   
    5        (9)        7        Brexiteer (IRE) 7/1        3    9-5 b        Brian Meehan        Franny Norton                Prominent, shaken up over 2f out, weakening when hung left well over 1f out (op 10/1)        53        7        19.75        53.42462639        53                29/07/2018        Brexiteer        53        Wolv_7_5   29Jul18   
    6        (11)        hd        Hateel (IRE) 9/1        3    9-0         William Haggas        Martin Harley                Held up, shaken up over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (op 6/1 tchd 8/1)        53        0.1        19.85        53.26828122        53                29/07/2018        Hateel        53        Wolv_7_6   29Jul18   
    7        (1)        nk        Zillion (IRE) 125/1        4    9-7         Sue Gardner        Megan Nicholls5                Held up, never on terms (op 66/1 tchd 50/1 and tchd 150/1)        53        0.25        20.1        52.87741827        53                29/07/2018        Zillion        53        Wolv_7_7   29Jul18   
    8        (10)        2        Gracie Stansfield 200/1        4    9-7         Tony Carroll        George Downing                Slowly into stride, held up, never on terms (op 100/1 tchd 250/1)        50        2        22.1        49.75051472        50                29/07/2018        Gracie Stansfield        50        Wolv_7_8   29Jul18   
    9        (6)        1¾        Royal Rattle 100/1        3    9-5         John Norton        Paddy Aspell                Pushed along early in rear, shaken up over 2f out, never dangerous (tchd 250/1)        47        1.75        23.85        47.01447411        47                29/07/2018        Royal Rattle        47        Wolv_7_9   29Jul18   
    10        (3)        2¼        Domestic Way (QA) 16/1        3    9-2         Marco Botti        Marc Monaghan3                Led early, chased winner until shaken up over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (op 14/1 tchd 11/1)        43        2.25        26.1        43.49670761        43                29/07/2018        Domestic Way        43        Wolv_7_10   29Jul18   
    11        (12)        18        Rivendicato 50/1        3    8-11 w2        Joseph Tuite        Nicola Currie3                Slowly into stride, outpaced (op 40/1 tchd 33/1 and tchd 80/1)        15        18        44.1        15.35457563        15                29/07/2018        Rivendicato        15        Wolv_7_11   29Jul18   
    12        (7)        9        Maximum Vision 200/1        3    9-5         Clare Ellam        Hollie Doyle                Slowly into stride, outpaced (op 100/1 tchd 250/1)        1        9        53.1        1.283509642        1                29/07/2018        Maximum Vision        1        Wolv_7_12   29Jul18   
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:16
I'll cut some of that out to fit better.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:17
    29/07/2018        14:50        Wolverhampton (AW)_Visit mymedsuk.com Maiden Stakes_(Class 5)                                                                 Var:        6.6                7f36yds        2        5        0        1540   
    1        (2)                Documenting 9/4F        5    9-7         Kevin Frost        Jason Watson5        79        84                        84.30279898        84                29/07/2018        Documenting        84        Wolv_7_1   29Jul18   
    2        (8)        4½        Solar Gold (IRE) 4/1        3    9-0         Charles Hills        Callum Shepherd        79        77        4.5        4.5        77.26726599        77                29/07/2018        Solar Gold        77        Wolv_7_2   29Jul18   
    3        (4)        2¼        Wilbury Twist 100/30        3    9-0         Roger Varian        David Egan                74        2.25        6.75        73.74949949        74                29/07/2018        Wilbury Twist        74        Wolv_7_3   29Jul18   
    4        (5)        6        Spiced 16/1        3    9-0         William Haggas        Liam Jones                64        6        12.75        64.36878883        64                29/07/2018        Spiced        64        Wolv_7_4   29Jul18   
    5        (9)        7        Brexiteer (IRE) 7/1        3    9-5 b        Brian Meehan        Franny Norton                53        7        19.75        53.42462639        53                29/07/2018        Brexiteer        53        Wolv_7_5   29Jul18   
    6        (11)        hd        Hateel (IRE) 9/1        3    9-0         William Haggas        Martin Harley                53        0.1        19.85        53.26828122        53                29/07/2018        Hateel        53        Wolv_7_6   29Jul18   
    7        (1)        nk        Zillion (IRE) 125/1        4    9-7         Sue Gardner        Megan Nicholls5                53        0.25        20.1        52.87741827        53                29/07/2018        Zillion        53        Wolv_7_7   29Jul18   
    8        (10)        2        Gracie Stansfield 200/1        4    9-7         Tony Carroll        George Downing                50        2        22.1        49.75051472        50                29/07/2018        Gracie Stansfield        50        Wolv_7_8   29Jul18   
    9        (6)        1¾        Royal Rattle 100/1        3    9-5         John Norton        Paddy Aspell                47        1.75        23.85        47.01447411        47                29/07/2018        Royal Rattle        47        Wolv_7_9   29Jul18   
    10        (3)        2¼        Domestic Way (QA) 16/1        3    9-2         Marco Botti        Marc Monaghan3                43        2.25        26.1        43.49670761        43                29/07/2018        Domestic Way        43        Wolv_7_10   29Jul18   
    11        (12)        18        Rivendicato 50/1        3    8-11 w2        Joseph Tuite        Nicola Currie3                15        18        44.1        15.35457563        15                29/07/2018        Rivendicato        15        Wolv_7_11   29Jul18   
    12        (7)        9        Maximum Vision 200/1        3    9-5         Clare Ellam        Hollie Doyle                1        9        53.1        1.283509642        1                29/07/2018        Maximum Vision        1        Wolv_7_12   29Jul18   
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 16:17
so you do all the calculations and store in excel? i store my rating within raceform interactive, but cant seem to export them easily to excel
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:18
    29/07/2018        14:50        Wolv                                                                Var:        6.6                7f36yds        2        5        0        1540   
    1        (2)                Documenting 9/4F        5    9-7         Kevin Frost        Jason Watson5        79        84                        84.30279898        84                29/07/2018        Documenting        84        Wolv_7_1   29Jul18   
    2        (8)        4½        Solar Gold (IRE) 4/1        3    9-0         Charles Hills        Callum Shepherd        79        77        4.5        4.5        77.26726599        77                29/07/2018        Solar Gold        77        Wolv_7_2   29Jul18   
    3        (4)        2¼        Wilbury Twist 100/30        3    9-0         Roger Varian        David Egan                74        2.25        6.75        73.74949949        74                29/07/2018        Wilbury Twist        74        Wolv_7_3   29Jul18   
    4        (5)        6        Spiced 16/1        3    9-0         William Haggas        Liam Jones                64        6        12.75        64.36878883        64                29/07/2018        Spiced        64        Wolv_7_4   29Jul18   
    5        (9)        7        Brexiteer (IRE) 7/1        3    9-5 b        Brian Meehan        Franny Norton                53        7        19.75        53.42462639        53                29/07/2018        Brexiteer        53        Wolv_7_5   29Jul18   
    6        (11)        hd        Hateel (IRE) 9/1        3    9-0         William Haggas        Martin Harley                53        0.1        19.85        53.26828122        53                29/07/2018        Hateel        53        Wolv_7_6   29Jul18   
    7        (1)        nk        Zillion (IRE) 125/1        4    9-7         Sue Gardner        Megan Nicholls5                53        0.25        20.1        52.87741827        53                29/07/2018        Zillion        53        Wolv_7_7   29Jul18   
    8        (10)        2        Gracie Stansfield 200/1        4    9-7         Tony Carroll        George Downing                50        2        22.1        49.75051472        50                29/07/2018        Gracie Stansfield        50        Wolv_7_8   29Jul18   
    9        (6)        1¾        Royal Rattle 100/1        3    9-5         John Norton        Paddy Aspell                47        1.75        23.85        47.01447411        47                29/07/2018        Royal Rattle        47        Wolv_7_9   29Jul18   
    10        (3)        2¼        Domestic Way (QA) 16/1        3    9-2         Marco Botti        Marc Monaghan3                43        2.25        26.1        43.49670761        43                29/07/2018        Domestic Way        43        Wolv_7_10   29Jul18   
    11        (12)        18        Rivendicato 50/1        3    8-11 w2        Joseph Tuite        Nicola Currie3                15        18        44.1        15.35457563        15                29/07/2018        Rivendicato        15        Wolv_7_11   29Jul18   
    12        (7)        9        Maximum Vision 200/1        3    9-5         Clare Ellam        Hollie Doyle                1        9        53.1        1.283509642        1                29/07/2018        Maximum Vision        1        Wolv_7_12   29Jul18   
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:21
Yes, all calculations in excel, I copy the results in from racingpost.com and sort out all the relevant stuff from that (see that big string in column C in the first example), then my output is the last 4 columns shown here which I c&p values onto another sheet and sort/filter it as I wish.
By:
woundedknee
When: 30 Jul 18 16:22
you aint arf a clever bstard
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:25
Plenty cleverer than me I should fink.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 16:31
CW, what figure did you give Documenting yesterday?
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:11
113 on my scale which is roughly 78 on your scale. my top absolute top ratings work out at 120-125 normal class 4 handicap about 106.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:12
i awarded him 103 for his wolv debut in may aswell
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:13
so did you award 84 from the above then?
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:14
I pondered it yesterday for some time and decided to stick with giving it a big fat 84. I think the track was riding according to the official description Standard to Slow yesterday.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:18
my going adjustment was +0.00 so quite fast, maybe thats why mu number is smaller.
my ratings for all races were 98 104 95 113 100 107 98 96
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:19
The distances justify giving it a big figure I think, 4½, 2¼, 6
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:21
undoubtedly, i cant disagree with you. as you can see quite a bit of head scratching for me:

                                                                                v standard projected    actual

9008x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV6F20Y    OLDER    N    6    75.1    -1.43    102    0    98
9009x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M5F219Y    OLDER    N    6    185.2    -0.32    101    0    104
9010x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV7F36Y    2B    N    5    90.4    -1.25    0    0    95
9011x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV7F36Y    OLDER    N    5    87.2    1.13    0    0    113
9012x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV7F36Y    3B    N    6    89.4    -0.53    99    0    100
9013x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M4F51Y    OLDER    N    4    159.2    -0.35    100    0    107
9014x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M1F104Y    3B    N    6    122.2    -1.02    0    0    98
9015x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M1F104Y    3B    N    6    122.7    -1.43    0    0    96
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:23
only time will tell, if you will pardon the pun
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:28
One factor that may cause a discrepancy is that I don't bother with 1¾+ any more, and I see that your fig for OFIF is higher than the other class 6s.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:28
*1¾ miles +
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:33
9008x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV6F20Y    OLDER    N    6    75.1    -1.43    102    0    98 ___ 63
9009x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M5F219Y    OLDER    N    6    185.2    -0.32    101    0    104 ___ N/A
9010x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV7F36Y    2B    N    5    90.4    -1.25    0    0    95 ___ 55
9011x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV7F36Y    OLDER    N    5    87.2    1.13    0    0    113 ___ 84
9012x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV7F36Y    3B    N    6    89.4    -0.53    99    0    100 ___ 64
9013x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M4F51Y    OLDER    N    4    159.2    -0.35    100    0    107 ___ 70
9014x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M1F104Y    3B    N    6    122.2    -1.02    0    0    98 ___ 59
9015x    WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)    WOLV1M1F104Y    3B    N    6    122.7    -1.43    0    0    96 ___  56
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:35
One anomoly i have noticed is the raceform speed ratings for 2m races are massively adjusted downwards by about -10pts for some obscure reason. I tend to try and use competitive handicaps at shorter distances to obtain my projected numbers.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:39
i see that your ratings are not purely linear like mine. i.e you differences to my figures vary between 39 - 40 pts. anyway i am in no way saying your rationale is worse than mine btw. its great to have the opportunity to discuss speed ratings with other compilers.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:41
i mean 29-40 pts. sorry
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:46
Cool Good to have a 3rd reader of the thread CW.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:52
well i have now compiled ratings from 1-1-2017, using standards for 2017 and then switched to projected method for 2018 as i had enough back ratings. so ready to go to war as they say. GB AWF only , which to me is by far the best medium for speed ratings
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 17:55
You doing Southwell as well? As mentioned a few pages up I decided to can it and stick to poly & tapeta.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:57
yes i am, although i exclude 5f races. anyway its a one -off surface so probably a good idea to avoid.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 17:59
i may have a small bet on Sir Gnet in 9.00 at wolv tonight, my first speed rating related bet of the year.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 18:02
btw i think your scale pretty much agrees with the scale used by nick mordin in 'mordin on speed'. I just used 0-140 scale, mainly so i could compare with raceform speed ratings, although mine are generally about 6pts higher it seems. doesnt really matter as we are all just looking at relative numbers afterall. i do think this is potentially profitable as i dont think many punters use speed ratings, even today.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 18:07
5f has always been difficult at Southwell, but I find it unsatisfactory to omit a sprint distance, whereas I'm happy to omit the staying races.
Allez Sir Gnet!
The scale diverges a bit from Mordin. I tailored it specifically to poly/tapeta courses after analysing 2 years worth of collected times by grade.
By:
Celtic warrior
When: 30 Jul 18 18:11
how long have you been using your system for betting and what have been the results? I used my system quite prfitably between 2009-2013 before a stressful job took its toll. now have more time to concentrate on it
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 18:18
I developed this particular method about 3 years ago. Had a decent run for a bit, then a less good run after upping the stakes, also I may have been guilty of over-filtering a bit. So this time, having tweaked the method slightly, less filtering and the bets fed in by a bot that stakes bank/200. As I say I'm testing in public, so this started at the beginning of the thread in June.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 18:18
*beginning of July, sorry.
By:
womenandthosewithnointerestinracing
When: 30 Jul 18 18:21
Cool WD Den
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