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Andrews' Daily Nap Lay

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Replies: 9,573
By:
Cork Langer
When: 29 Apr 18 22:32
sings in an ABBA tribute band, gigs are few and far between though, which is why he has resorted to laying to make ends meet
By:
Willie Shafter.
When: 29 Apr 18 22:34
sounds interesting..aint you tried punting to make a living?
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 29 Apr 18 22:34
LOL Cork
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 29 Apr 18 22:51
Willie, yes very interesting and i get around, Sweden is not the only country i've worked in outside England (left in 1984).

As for punting for a living, we both know it's really difficult pre-race, backing or laying, although i've never tried IR at an exchange office or on track as you do. In the days of Frankel and Sprinter Sacre i did make some decent money, but it wasn't my source of income, and backing shorties is not always the road to riches, the 'unbeatable' Minding at 4/11 in the Irish 1000 guineas cost me a few bob to reinforce that. I think i'm reasonably knowledgable about the game, although there are many on here that could say the same, but irrespective of that, i don't need to punt for a living as long as i can get a work contract.
By:
Willie Shafter.
When: 29 Apr 18 23:01
yes pre race punting on sport is almost impossible to win long term,its a strange game becos when things roll for you they roll,when the tide turns its unforgivable,nothing suprises me anymore ive seen everything,you'll no sooner lay 7 losers than lay 4 winners on the trot,discipine and staking plan is the key,unfortunately lots of people ive worked with over the last 10yrs or so are really struggling now as most cant get rid of the betting shop instinct,they only learn the hard way.
By:
zipper
When: 30 Apr 18 02:58
backing   odds on shots  you only    need to look at the prem comp on here   every month

some guys have a 80%  hit rate  but  finish up  losing say  5 points ....
By:
zipper
When: 30 Apr 18 03:48
willy  6 of  MAY  go  to  have   scan     re  do I have a brain    the    dock  is not  ....ok  lets seeLaughLaughLaugh
By:
zipper
When: 30 Apr 18 03:52
hes  not  sure...  I have a brain    ...lets  see
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 10:31
Hey zip what ya doing up at 3 in the morning? You have a stoppy back down the local?
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 30 Apr 18 10:37
... judging by the state of his posts i would say AFFIRMATIVE george. Happy
By:
Willie Shafter.
When: 30 Apr 18 10:39
zip been watching susan and steven through the glory hole.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 Apr 18 11:35
you could be laying dancing on a dream 5.50 southw?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 30 Apr 18 12:20
Willie, i'm a freelance design engineer, working on aerospace/defence system projects.

Yes I used to do that.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 30 Apr 18 12:58
The last of my 8 consecutive days 'fun' challenge to select a daily nap lay. There are several meetings today, 5 flat in UK and a NH in Ireland, and around 20 races with runners priced at 5/2 or less (my preferred odds limit for the sake of this thread).

2 of the meetings are on AW tracks that i'm not a fan of, and the Irish one at Kilbeggan, a track with such tight turns that jockeys get dizzy, and the going will probably be described as heavy to waterlogged in places.

Currently £350 in profit after 7/7 successful lays, so there will still be a decent return even in the event of sods law and i fail today. I narrowed it down to 3 lays last night, but a couple have drifted to the low 4's, so i'm relying on the other, that wasn't my first choice.

3.30 Thirsk Tamkeen

A progressive 2 year old in 3 average maiden races last year, not beaten far in each. The form of those that have run since is patchy to say the least, but the better of them appears to be the winner Three Saints Boy, who has won again, albeit in a small novices race at Pontefract. Generally races prominently, but looks very one paced, and being a Kyllachy colt may be better suited to a shorter trip, although it will not be a problem today. Also entered in a handicap on Thursday, and the fact it runs in another maiden today could be a positive or a negative as far as laying it is concerned. Fitness has to be taken on trust and the betting may provide a clue, at the moment he is vying for favourtism.

His main rival could be Bacacarat who has a similar profile, but has probably made more progress and has already run this season, so should be fit. He finished 3rd in that 7f race, that looked a decent field, and was staying on well, so will like the 8f today. The winner, Porth Swtan is a good yardstick and was only beaten 1/2L by King Rufus who is rated 103.

It's not a 2 horse race by any means, the lightly raced Valdolobo and The Navigator both ran well as 2 year olds, specially the latter who stayed on well behind the 2/5 favourite Stephensons Rocket, who had previously finished 2nd to the subsequent listed winner Crossed Baton. I can't see any of the 4 outsiders winning, but i wouldn't discount Slipstream. Good luck.

Lay @ 3.15

30-Apr-18
11:19:15    15:30 Thirsk
Tamkeen - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:124014253968 | Matched: 30-Apr-18 11:58:37    Lay    3.15    50.00    107.50
50.00
Matched
By:
Lampus
When: 30 Apr 18 13:04
G/L Andrew  in Sweden
from Lampus in Free  Cornwall
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 30 Apr 18 13:23
Won't be free for long if Corbyn gets in Lampus.

He's got Cornwall pencilled in to take the population of Somalia.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 30 Apr 18 13:27
Good luck Andrew, l fancy Baccarat myself
The Newbury race he ran in a length behind promschema who hosed up the other day looks good.
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 30 Apr 18 13:42
All the best man with the great christian nameHappy

Obviously all shrewdys where christened AndrewLove
By:
eldar
When: 30 Apr 18 13:50
GL for the full set Andrew

Just from curiosity what were the other two which didn't make the cut?
By:
ladycarla
When: 30 Apr 18 13:51
Good luck AIS this one for a clean sweep Cool
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 30 Apr 18 14:00
Thanks for the comments guys

eldar, the other two were in order of preference ....

3.15 Wolverhampton Ortiz - it was 2.62 last night !
6.30 Kilbegaan Brosna George. This one drifted without being matched but is not trading at 3.3

Glasgow, same thinking ExcitedGrin

Lampus, i'm president of the Free Cornwall society, Stockholm branch Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 14:01
Good luck Andrew

I've included Slipstream in an EW multi, thought he up showed up OK for a fair way at Newbury before being left behind by the pair who might have been advantaged by drifting stands side; wants this for a mark, but hopefully will strip fitter and some better ground will help.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 30 Apr 18 14:03
Thank you ladycarla
By:
eldar
When: 30 Apr 18 14:05
Thanks Andrew.

GL
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 Apr 18 14:06
wouldn't lay maktoum gl though Mischiefclose call
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 30 Apr 18 14:10
Good luck George, as you say, could be running for a handicap mark, although not discounted and is an EW squeak if those that haven't run this season don't perform.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 Apr 18 14:28
dr crippenGrin
By:
Lampus
When: 30 Apr 18 15:19
Happy
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 30 Apr 18 15:34
Very well done Andrew.
By:
Lampus
When: 30 Apr 18 15:34
Great  Laying  Andrew  HappyHappy
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 30 Apr 18 15:34
Cool unbeaten nap lays champ.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 15:36
Mission accomplished, well done Andrew
By:
eldar
When: 30 Apr 18 15:36
Unplaced. The perfect finale Happy

VWD Andrew
By:
roder2
When: 30 Apr 18 15:38
WD Andrew, top class laying
By:
Movewiththetimes
When: 30 Apr 18 15:40
Brilliant AIS top stuff Cool I've took 6/5 on Mr buttons fancy it to follow up even giving the weight. You should carry this thread on even if it's a weekly lay, well done again.
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 30 Apr 18 15:42
Great stuff well done mate.Happy
By:
Basil_the_don
When: 30 Apr 18 15:46
Top bombing Andrew VWD
By:
rob22
When: 30 Apr 18 15:53
Well done Andrew,top laying.
By:
Knight Commander
When: 30 Apr 18 15:59
Brilliant laying Andrew. Top notch Happy
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 30 Apr 18 16:27
Thanks for the comments guys.

Is it George B or Delta that use the term 'a pleasing thread' Grin

Mwtt, good luck with Mr Buttons in the 5.50. On breeding, you're definitely on the right one, and he has experience of the fibresand that the filly, Dancing On A Dream doesn't. His win has been subsequently endorsed by Arthurs Spirit who won LTO, beating Dancing On A Dream 3L, albeit receiving 5lb.

Against him (as you noted) can he concede 11 lb to an early season filly ? This is a lot of weight and equates to a tadge over 3.5L. On a line through Arthurs Spirit, it will be very close, and i wouldn't be surprised if the camera was needed. Not a race for me, but if i had to play, i would be with yours.
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