THANKS  Andrew 

Horray some bolly added to my order from Waitrose

Well done yet again.

In your write up you refer to Suzie Best as being the wife of trainer John Best. Actually I think you'll find she's the wife of the notorious Jim Best. An easy mistake to make though !

I have read this thread since it started without laying any of them unfortunately and have to complement Andrew on an excellent and hopefully for some a profitable thread

Thanks for the comments guys

Ghost, Cavier and bubbly ? Give me Beef steak and Red wine any day

Prosniper, i'm happy for Mart to remain as the forum daddy, I don't need a pedestal

Posy, well spotted and thanks. I guess as soon as i saw 'Best' my immediate thought was 'is this a plot' LOL I was completely mistaken there, John is a fine trainer.

Maine lobster tomoro

wd again Andrew

Thanks for all the comments guys and gals.

Rose Berry was a little slow at the start, although she quickly joined the field in 3rd place. She was rousted along before 2f out, and although staying on well enough, never looked like winning at any stage. The track didn't appear to inconvenience her. She may win the a small race over further on summer ground later in the year, but may be a little high in the handicap at the moment.

The two i suggested could win needed a photo to separate them, the heavily backed Super Julius just losing out to another well backed horse Mr Pocket by a short head. Ross Berry drifted in the betting close to race time. The others didn't really get into the race.

Daily profit £50
Running total profit (9/9) £450

Another lay tomorrow

Summary of the 9 lays with finishing position and industry SP as follows :

Monday - Washington DC @ 2.60 - 3rd @ 6/4f
Tuesday - Cristal Spirit @ 3.25 - 2nd @ 7/2 (drifted)
Wednesday - Scorpion Side @ 2.76 - 2nd @ 15/8 (beaten 31L)
Thursday - Getareason @ 2.52 (inc. reduction factor) - 3rd @ 7/4
Friday - Melon @ 3.69 (inc. reduction factor) - fell @ 11/4
Saturday - Mr Adjudicator @ 3.56 (inc. reduction factor) - 2nd @ 100/30 (drifted)
Sunday - Sailing Home @ 3.4 - 2nd @ 3/1 (drifted)
Monday - Tamkeen @ 3.15 - 5th @ 9/4
Tuesday - Rose Berry @ 3.45 - unplaced @ 7/2 (drifted late)

Some outstanding work here AIS, Keep her lit good man.

Andrew went to the same finishing school as Mart

Ghost, Mart never finished school

Good Afternoon Andrew
Good Luck with 10/10

Thanks Foyleswar

5 turf/AW meetings in UK and an AW in Ireland today, mostly typical mid-week fare, but 3 Black type races at Ascot adding some quality, including the 2 mile Sagaro stakes, won by the much loved Persian Punch and Double Trigger in the 90's, and named after the 3 time gold cup winner at the same track.

One of the lower grade meetings today is at Bath, a wonderful, historical city. The course is idiosyntratic, and like Brighton, often features 'regulars' that like its quirkiness. One of them is Jagonary in the 7.20 who has already run there 20 times, including its last 7 runs no less. It's also entered there next week, so that could make it 9 consectutive runs at the same course if it misses a Chepstow entry on Friday. Is this a record ? Maybe one the forum gurus can shed light on it.

OK, down to business and looking through the cards, i feel that today is a day for backers, rather thsn layers, and a few of the odds on favourites look good. I haven't really seen a stand out lay (at least meeting the ball park 5/2 odds or less constraint) but this thread is for consecutive daily lays, so I have to abide by my own rules. I did consider Torcedor at Ascot, but it has drifted to 4.8, although it was 3.9 earlier this morning and as low as 3.3 last night.

When deciding a lay, the primary consideration is obviously a logical reasoning why, and ideally have at least a couple with form chances running for you, or if not (i.e. a small field, or one that lacks depth) be reasonably confident of one that will win (as opposed to could win if that makes sense).

My lay today is my riskiest selection to date, in what immediately appears as a 2 horse race in a field of 4, but i feel the very likely favourite will win.

5.00 Brighton Swiss Time

A filly with sprinting pedigree, she finished 4th in a class 5 novice stakes at Windsor LTO. Settled from just off the pace, joined the field that almost raced in a straight line across the track at the 2f marker, and stayed on in the last furlong, but without looking the winner. The field of 9 were mainly newcomers although 3 had run previously. The first 5 home finished in a heap (covered by 1.75L) and the form of those that had run (and since) is lack lustre to say the least. Swiss time drifted from 6/1 to 8/1, and generally speaking, if a Hannon 2 year old is ready, they are backed, although it looked as though she knew what was required in my opinion.

The horse I feel reasonably confident will win the race is the speedily bred colt Tin Hat who ran really well LTO. He showed a lot of early speed and stayed on very resolutely all the way to the line, but was beaten a head behind Kinks, who had the advantage of a previous run.

Tin Hat finished 3.75L ahead of Steeve and he won a class 4 at Salisbury yesterday. Kinks has won again in a class 4, and is now rated 92 by Timeform (no BHA rating) so the form looks solid enough.

Eve Johnson Houghton has a good record at Brighton, and had a winner at Nottingham yesterday with jockey Warren Greatrex on board (same combination today) although Tin Hat is only her second 2 year old to have run this season.
 
Windsor 5f is flat and almost straight, but the sprint at Brighton is the opposite, with a sharp bend, undulations, and an uphill finish, so a new experience for Swiss Time, although this may not necessarily be a negative to her of course. Tin Hat ran at Bath, and horses that run well there also tend to do so at Brighton, a similar course in some respects. The uphill finish and tad longer trip will also suit him.

Both runners will improve of course, but i feel the Windsor race looked very ordinary. Kinks is undoubtedly a good winning yardstick, and Lihou only just beat him a head after running in the Brocklesby, a race that has thrown up several winners including the Mick Channon trained Izzer who has won again. Tin Hat concedes 5 lb to Swiss Time, but at this time of the year, it's not a significant disadvantage. She has stall 1, with Tin Hat on her outer in 5, but i think he is the speedier type, will cross to the rail quickly and make the running.

If Tin Hat doesn't run how i expect, then my lay is a very firm favourite to win unless one of the newcomers show some promise. Bill Turner knows a thing or two about training sprinters and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise of the day if his speedily bred Coach Trip won. It's interesting that Luke Morris is booked and he rides the course well. Good luck all.

Lay @ 3.15

02-May-18
12:22:05    17:00 Brighton
Swiss Chime - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:124219256406 | Matched: 02-May-18 13:20:57    Lay    3.15    50.00    107.50
50.00
Matched

Going great guns Andrew well done I've backed tin hat today my only bet today as I think it will take some beating good luck with your lay another very good write up

Thanks Kev,

We all know good things come unstuck sometimes, look at the first Ascot race for a typical example, but I really like Tin Hat today.

Dicey, laying a Hannon 2 yr old,bit GL

holly doyle - 7 for trainer 14 days, ?

Good write up,Andrew,having just got home and had a look ,Tin Hat is a sound fav especially Greatrex has positive stake amount for 2 yr olds turf

Hard to judge what will handle Brighton.. GL