Morning All / Afternoon AIS

Interesting write up again Andrew  and WD with the Boxing day lay

Was majorly disappointed with elegant escape yesterday as my 10/1 EW  voucher went up in smoke, add that to a number of favourites who didn't run as expected at Kempton over the two days made for a good few days for the books

Have to mention the valley as we got our revenge for the game at Ashton Gate
a player Happy will know from orient Bonne made the difference this time and I thought well deserved as we have suffered with an terrible injury list. Your boys are on a bad run now.

I fancy Thyme hill, not nap material but more because I dont fancy the opposition especially the Cashal Man being a 7yo and seems like one of those horses that gets placed a lot (especially when i have backed it) however according to chapman has been backed from 9/2 to 5/2 so what do I know

GL all today

28 Dec 19 11:26Joined: 26 Mar 19 | Topic/replies: 3,386 | Blogger: mymumsfinethankyou's blog
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lots of MENTIONS and football snippets ,   hes scared to death ,   incidently am i blocked or not blocked ,

ohh seems im not banned nor binned nor pied , just my usual  happy chatty helpful stuff ,

ahh happy so tell me which of AIS snippets yr punting today , hes vague as usual ie no bets indicated , unless you can read the runes and tell me different ,

my leavings been predicted for months ,,,  still here it seems , can i have the date im going please

you will need bell book and candle fronter ,, dream on ,

lets start a thread of (in)famous Michaels

Deciding on the Saturday shortie was difficult and to be honest i didn't fancy much at all, but the pin has fallen on Tricomlee (1.30 Leicester) at odds around 1.84

Played Trincomlee in 2 TB P market had me swetting  buckets

Belated Merry Xmas,Andrew and all.
Obviously I don't post often,but just popped in to say I enjoy your thread and I am looking forward to the 2020 one.Going to wait till then to block the three amigos,they are hilarious.
Come across as a spurned suitor,if he can't have you nobody should.

Early Happy New Year.

Good evening Guys and Girls,

Many thanks for all comments since my last post, much appreciated.

Looking back on my earlier Saturday thoughts, not my finest hour by any means, in fact i made a right Pigs ear of it, although it wasn't all a negative of course and i did state a couple of the races were for watching rather than betting.

Summary of my selections (original text in italics).

Concentrating on this race, Kemboy, the winner last year is favourite, and on form rightly so, but i would be a layer around 2/1 this afternoon. He had a prep race last year, but due to legal issues wasn't allowed to run (enforced by the HRI) so fitness has to be taken on trust even though runners from the stable generally are, but for a horse who likes to lead and on the soft/heavy going expected, it's a big ask first time out.

Although several beaten runners from this race last year re-oppose, i feel it's a better field.

For such a big stable it's surprising Willie has only won the race twice, conversely Noel Meade, who runs Road To Respect (beaten last year) has won it on 4 occasions.

My only real success, i actually sent the poster Bitbybit a WhatsApp message stating i had laid it (3.05) in the morning, but it was a risk. Easy in hindsight to say i should have posted it, but i didn't, so end of story.

In the other Grade 1 at the meeting, Apples Jade goes for a hat trick of victories in the Christmas hurdle and whilst she has run poorly in recent outings, i wouldn't want to be laying her here with her 4/4 win record at the course, but at the same time i wouldn't back her either. I don't like the probably favourite either and suspect the winner will come out of the first two in the betting, but i think it's a race to watch without a bet.

Nothing really to comment on, i was right and wrong about Apples Jade, right about Bacardys (who was favourite at the time of posting) but wrong by thinking the winner would come from outside the first two in the betting. It didn't matter anyway as i thought it a race to watch.

I'm not convinced Thyme Hill is the good thing in the Challow at Newbury and would be a layer rather than a backer, but again i feel it's a race to watch.

Again i felt it was a race to watch, but i got it wrong anyway.

Deciding on the Saturday shortie was difficult and to be honest i didn't fancy much at all, but the pin has fallen on Tricomlee (1.30 Leicester) at odds around 1.84. Ran well at Newbury to finish 3rd LTO in similar class, fading close home, but has a furlong less to travel today. The field doesn't appear to have a lot of strength in depth and i think she could be better than these. Trainer and jockey current form is good.

Finished runner up @ 8/11 (beaten 6L). no excuses, i simply got it wrong, but backing novice hurdlers where are lot of the field are unexposed always comes with a risk, this was such an occasion. The winner had run well enough in previous races to be considered, but obviously not by yours truly, and yes i did back the runner-up (albeit small).

2 other small lays made the afternoon profitable, albeit by the princely sum of £43.83, enough to keep my daughter in German sim cards for a couple of days. I wasn't enamoured by the days cards anyway, so it was actually a result. 

My EW selection was also difficult and i narrowed it down to two in the same race (Newbury 1.50) One For Rosie and Now Look At Me, finally deciding on the latter at odds around 12.5 on here. Lightly raced, consistent and although he needs to improve, he has a light weight that will be a benefit on the soft going. Ran well LTO and may have won but for losing a left fore shoe.

Well backed (down to 6/1) and that's about the only positive. I guess i could use false mitigation and state he fell at the last (he actually did) to make it look better, but at the time he did, i think the winner was already back in the unsaddling enclosure. Enough said.

I noticed MMFTY and Cardenden had posted twice during the morning/afternoon respectively, but as they are both blocked i've no idea what was typed, nor am i remotely interested in knowing, but i imagine they were giving an opinion on a race before the off.

Lucky Luciano,

Well done with Thyme hill, at least one of us can interpret form, hope you made a few bob.

As for Bristol City, a topsy turvy game by all accounts, but well done to Charlton.

Correct, a very poor run and it's hard to explain why. We may have been lucky to beat Fulham away 5 games ago, but we were going through a decent run at the time, now it's 4 losses on the trot. Luton at home tomorrow and whilst we must surely be favorites, you couldn't back them.

Happysandwich,

Try Trincomalee, Tanglefoot is on a par with me at speeling.

Gdrj,

Many thanks and likewise, belated festive greetings to you and your loved ones.

Have a nice evening all, what's left of it.

More tomorrow.

.... He used to follow me until i started posting on the deadline. !!

just reading the posters latest wire from the front ,

what is ist of all noticable is how few now not only bother to read this increasingly apologetic thread , but also how few now say unlucky andrew ,

    the pressure in spite of his protestations has inevitably got to him ,  it stated with his lays which became bets , then football snippets then travels with my kid , in a desperate attempt to keep hold of his declining followers ,

NUTKINS pointless thread yesterday got more hits ,


so lets see what the calm , sven like figure said ;

after the race  it was all confident pre race until the wheeels fell off on every one of his selection or what are now becoming increasingly his MENTIONS .  its better that way as if they win you can cheer if the lose and the vast majotity do he skips over them ,  just mentions the odd one to keep you muppets interested so he can keep the charade going ,


SO on a day of all the horses loseing he adds ,

NOT ALL NEGATIVE OF COURSE ???  what can he mean by that guys and gals

then adds SENT BITY A TEXT about two other SMALL lays during the afternoon  which gave me a small profit of 43.83


so thats ok then ,  you lot if you followed him and i hope after months of this dross you didnt .


he made a small profit  but you followers werent given a chance to follow his profitable bets as he kept them to himself , 


, i think we all agree his new thread is way way overdue and perhaps this one needs binned the sooner the better ,

im now getting embarrased for the guy esp the way hes involving his family  just to divert attention frm what his totality of failings are ,

give it up andrew , or just say its a news sheet for a few followers and stop making claims the selections are the golden graille

  we both know yr bottles gone

tell the lie with a wink of the eye cos tommorrow you will be back on the site ,   cmon neville give it up

Lay Post

Kelso 12.50 - Commis D'Office

A 7 year old Califet Gelding (French bred) trained by Venetia Williams at Aramstone, Herefordshire,

Dam was unraced. 5 offspring, nothing of note although most lightly raced.

Appears to have had issues since June 2016 with 2 lengthy breaks of 236 and 714 days respectively. Had wind surgery in between the breaks (July 2018).

5 runs for Venetia since transferring from France albeit only average form.

PU in the first two, albeit in class 3 and 2 handicaps.

Ran better in a class 2 handicap on his next run finishing 3rd of 8, but 2 didn't finish, 1 was tailed off and he was carrying a light weight, 14 lb and 27 lb less than the front two respectively.

It was a similar scenario for his penultimate race, dropping down to class 4 (9/5f) finishing runner-up. A small field of 7, but 2 didn't complete and he may not have finished where he had if one hadn't gone at the 2nd last fence.

Made 2/1f LTO and ran to a similar level in same class (4) but was a well beaten (21L) 4th of 8. Dropped a lb to 120 as a consequence and i feel his mark is still on the high side for what he has actually achieved.

Has been backed on occasion (as today) although not really looked as though the confidence was warranted.

Back up to class 3 this afternoon.

Not the most fluent of jumpers (never fallen) and Kelso fences are not so easy. It's also a course (flat/sharp) that requires stamina in adverse conditions.

Fitness has to be taken on trust has he hasn't run since April (260 days).

A small field of 4 runners, but a tricky handicap where only 7 lb separates top and bottom (he being the lowest rated) and his 3 rivals are CD winners, each of whom are in with a chance of winning.

Anything that is backed from this stable in soft conditions is a risk, but i feel he will not be winning.

Lay @ 2.84.

Good luck all

but dont fret andrew all will be forgiven when yr lay does the bizz , thats how it works doesnt it ,,   well done ais , you da man ; all the losers you put up gone in a blink ,   the dream goes forward again ,  you rely on the next bet to win   after that alls forgotten cept of course by me

….. but i feel he will not be winning.

I’ll drink to that Andrew.

Thanks

Well done again Andrew!

Unlucky again Kemo!

.. 340k .. oops.

nice one Andrew ,cheers.

Happysandwich,

Lampus is at his regular Sunday afternoon Cornish Pasty tasting club.