All the best Andrew.

Don't worry I like looking at other peoples opinions but I always back my own, well on the aw at least, it's my speciality ( I lose less on it anyway!!)

Good luck with your lay

Documenting,safe play,in 2 TBP.

yes ,,all the best andrew ,,,

... Aye, and you Nap just got beat ... AGAIN. !!! 

VWD andrew...

BOOOOOOOOOM

very well done on the lay happy

Lay Post

Wolverhampton 4.55 - Documenting.

A 6 year old gelding trained by Kevin Frost at Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Staffordshire.

A regular runner on the AW this season, the surface obviously suits him, 4 wins from 12 as opposed to a record of 0/6 on turf.

Not the most consistent over his 18 races and although running well enough recently, his mark has remained static at 105 in his previous 3 races (his highest rating) and a lot of it down to an easy win over 7f in February (coming from off the pace).

Oddly enough the trainer drops him in trip that is a little surprising considering his decent record over 7f.

Has never won over 6f.

Won well LTO (odds-on) but it was a class 3, a lessor field than he meets today (runner-up only rated 88) and he's never won in class 2 (today's grade).

A half decent field of 6 runners, all of them specialist sprinters and winners over the trip, 4 of them over the course. Only the outsider could really be ignored and 3 of them are rated 100 or more, so layers have several running for them.

Corinthia Knight has won off marks of 103 and 105 and will surely go close if he can reproduce one of these runs, although I wouldn't want to back anything in this race.

Obviously a risk, trainer/jockey in form, is best in at the weights and has been well supported, but I feel he will not be winning this afternoon.

Lay @ 2.48 (ref my 11.57 post).

Good luck all.

Excellent again Andrew - thanks

Well done Andrew, feel I was beaten by the unknown quantity, such is life!!

Well done Andrew,

That halved my losses on Cyrname.
So no harm done today.

Well done again Andrew.

Good evening Guys and Girls,

The Christmas festivities are almost over for another year, although we still have the NY to look forward to of course and i guess most will still continue work vacation until January 2nd at least.

In Sweden the 6th is also a public holiday, as it is in some German states, Bavaria included, although i will only be going to the office for odd hours on occasional days before the 13th anyway. My daughter returns to Australia on 9th (sadly) and i go to Sweden on 10th for half a day in the Saab office and a catch up with friends weekend.

OK enough of my travelogue and on to a summary of the lay selection.

Documenting was well backed down to 11/10 and layers watching live were probably concerned a furlong out when he looked the winner and must have been short IR (i watched the video replay earlier) but thankfully a White Knight, Summerghand finished with aplomb to win by 1/2L, albeit a little cosily. Considering he was 4L behind Documenting at the 2f pole, he did well to win. I didn't expect Documenting to lead, although he did show good early pace, but i wouldn't be surprised if he reverted to 7f next time out.

I needed this lay to be beaten for more than financial reasons (laid on here) as there are only 5 racing days left before i start the new thread and i would like to finish in profit, even if i can't replicate previous levels.

Many thanks for the comments post race, much appreciated.

Matty,

Today i got it right, but there were times in the past when i didn't, and you did. It's just opinions anyway. Hope you had a good day in other races.

Happysandwich,

WD on retrieving 50% of your Cyrname losses, small steps remember.

All,

My Thursday thoughts from earlier this morning (10.06) (in italics below) achieved mixed results, but were profitable overall at least. My post race comments follow each selection as always.

The day we've all been waiting for since Saturday evening has finally arrived, after 4 blank days of UK racing, the sport of Kings returns, more in quantity that quality, although the graded cards in Ireland and Kempton certainly supply the latter, including the KG (2.45). I mentioned my thoughts on this race several days ago, but to reiterate (and save typing) here is part of it.

Looking further ahead to the KG on Boxing day, i guess many of us are eagerly waiting for this race in what racing media appears to be promoting as a duel between Lostintranslation and Cyrname.

They could be correct (although i don't see it that way) and although Harry will almost certainly be riding the latter, i keep going back to review form of his stablemate Clan Des Obeaux, winner of the race last year and it could be argued maybe against a better field (at least at the time). Native River (rated 176) was well beaten in 3rd, and there were 2 others in the 170 and up range.

I think 7/2 is a little on the short side and with only 7 runners, EW is restrictive, but if i do bet on the race, he will be my win selection, albeit small for an interest.

If i had to lay one of the two main protagonists, it would be Lostintranslation, simply as i think Cyrname is the better of the two (2/2 at Kempton). Colin's runner is without doubt a classy type, and i do like him, but i'm not totally convinced the form of his last 2 wins makes him as short as 13/8 in a KG field, even though the runner up LTO, Bristol De Mai is rated 170. Both are good jumpers, although the fences here are fairly easy, but if the going is heavy, the latter's stamina will certainly be tested (never raced beyond 21f) however i don't envisage this will be an issue.

Only 5 in the field now and Clan Des Obeaux has drifted out to 11/2 in places and at 1/4 odds (2 places) now appeals as an EW bet, or even better, maybe in the 2TBP. I would still be a layer of Lostintranslation at anything under 2/1, but it's riskier now with the NR.

Clan Des Obeaux won very easily (21L) at 11/2, although to be fair i feel the winning distance was exaggerated as the runner-up didn't jump as well as he can and clearly didn't stay. I watched the race and thought CDO was the winner before 3 out.

Lostintranslation was beaten some way out and never really threatened to win.

In terms of 'real' bets this was a good result for me personally, backing the winner at SP (small) via my UK brother (who will be happy to get a drink out if it) backing at @ 2.62 in the 2TBP (small) and laying Lostintranslation @ 3.05 several days ago (both bets on here).

My EW selection is Rocco (2.10 Wetherby) at a general 7/1, who is upped in trip and has a winnable weight (runs off 133 as in his previous race). Still relatively lightly raced, and although only winner of a sole chase could have been 2/4 (fell at the last in one) and has run well in the other two, specially LTO. The move up in trio is certainly a positive.

Made far to many mistakes and although racing prominently for a long way, faded from 4 out and was PU.

For my Saturday shortie (successful at 9/4 last week) i'm going with Cloudy Glen (1.40 Market Rasen) who has yet to win in 2 novice chases, but has run well enough and may have been a little unfortunate LTO (beaten a neck) when the latter stages turned into a flat race on heavy going with the last fence omitted. The winner is no slouch anyway having won 4 out of his previous 5 now and with Hugh back on board I feel compensation awaits. Available at 11/8 with most books.

Fell at the 5th.

Across to the Emerald Isle, I think Fakir D'Oudairies (2.20 Leopardstown) who gave an exhibition round of jumping for a novice LTO (probably one of the best seen so far) will beat Laurino. Mind you, it's not 2 horse race by any means with Notebook in the field, so a lay of Laurino is the preferred bet.

Laurino ran poorly and didn't look to be going that well from an early stage.

Samcro, who I felt strongly would have won but for falling LTO (Fakir D'Oudairies won) has a chance to redeem himself over at Limerick (2.40) and unlike the previous paragraph, this is probably a two horse race, so Samcro is selected for the win.

Samcro jumped well enough and although threatening 3 out (looked to be the winner) he didn't find much. The hype bubble surrounding him is well and truly burst, there were no excuses today, he was well beaten. Unfortunately i backed this one on here as an interest, albeit only small.

More tomorrow.

Enjoy the evening all.

Would be interested to see how Samcro was post race,went out like a light in the straight.

profitable ,,, your imagining your bets again , after the race ,  you make them up ,  more real bets as opposed to unreal ones ,  yr in paralel dimension ,  and now happy is saved ,  or at least hiw wintet fuel allowance is ,   P/L if you do lsp show another loss , theres a surprise, you keep forgetting yr losers ,  just like toby , are you the same poster

Good morning Guys and Girls,

A late breakfast whilst reviewing todays' generally lacklustre cards. More later.

punchestown 26 Dec 19 21:39
 
Would be interested to see how Samcro was post race,went out like a light in the straight.
Correct, it was odd. He looked like the winner 3 out and went from travelling well to zilch, almost as though it wasn't the same horse.

Smirnoff and Glasgow,

Exactly, it really eats him that it's not all about him on here and rather than do a little bit of form reading (he doesn't by his own admission) he prefers to slate everyone who has an opinion, preferring the safer option of after timing, although even that is diminishing lately, it was only 3 winners yesterday.

kemo sabe 27 Dec 19 00:02

profitable ,,, your imagining your bets again , after the race ,  you make them up ,  more real bets as opposed to unreal ones ,  yr in paralel dimension ,

Which bets do you want me to post ?

By the way, it's parallel.