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The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
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*That search was dropped a stone or more and stuffed 15-30l last time out
As stated ridiculously small sample size but it certainly doesn't pour cold water over a revival with today's runner either! |
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The 3 could take or leave for various reasons at the prices all won today.
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that last 2yo was quite incredible managing to win doing that zig zagging across the track
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Curlew River very unexposed with the age allowance again stepping up to 1m4f at Brighton today after it's Leicester success over 10f in the same class, this is a decent prize for the class and should give a very good account of himself. The course stats for this type are good, the sheikh has a very good record in these 3yo+ (3yo's) in the class and the top weight and follow up stats are strong too.Hopefully settles better than the only time joe was aboard previously when lost all chance in a better race on the aw.
think the current price of near 5/1 on here for this sort is ok today with all the profile ticks. Mistime was due to take her chance in Titi Makfi's GG race last week but ruled out late with a self cert. Not many would be sent to GG without being race fit with such a profile and this is obviously a less hot contest today but my gut feeling with this jockey booking (nothing against him) suggests other days may be a better proposition, Franny is off to Haydock for one ride for Tony Carroll this afternoon and SDS is on the current betfair market leader in the race. The profile has plenty to be positive about generally, these layoffs would not put me off even this far into the season with unexposed handicappers (first run at trip today) but I'm banking on my gut feeling being right and today not being the day. 3:30 Brighton Curlew River (£15), current odds 5.8 |
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 not as fussed about leaving tother one today now. |
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good work SE
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WD Stride
Clawing it back  |
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Cheers Hatters/Wonders
Ravenhoe the only other this evening. Has got it's class, trip (course should suit too) and is in it's usual hcp range to win. But has taken advantage of pretty weak contests and it would surprise me somewhat if enough including the 2 lto winners misfired as I think they would have to for Ravenhoe to prevail on ground that hasn't been seen as optimum. Overall hcp record is 3-40 and all 3 wins have been against races made up of non winners lto. 2 placed efforts from 23 runs against any winners lto in it's races isn't great to say the least. |
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WD
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Am out tomorrow should be back about 3:30 Plenty of likely looking types but not sure come race time how many are going to appeal at the prices, My chum Highly Sprung still potentially has 6-8lbs to play with imo, missing this at Redcar still smarts tbh had been banging on about what it needs and then managed to not commit at a decent price. Had to inject his own pace plenty early enough last time and should get something more solid to run at dragging him into the race as he likes, the Brighton finish on fast ground should be ideal over 6f. Yorkidding been freshened up and really should run a big race in that field, Berengaria has had experience of better class but is still pretty unexposed on fast ground, like today's winner another Sheikh runner in a class 4 3yo+, not as strong for me as today's and all about price. Will see the state of play when I get in tomorrow. |
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Passing on Berengaria though not the easiest of leaves with a lot of the same characteristics as yesterdays winner at track.
Form not really stacked up enough for me this year looking at what's come out of it's races, you'd have expected better after last season's efforts and could easily get back on track today. |
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Highly Sprung has to be selected today, I thought that once it got conditions off it's mark before the last win that it could easily get a couple of quick races landed and I still think He should be well treated here with optimum looking conditions again and SDS up.
There should be a decent pace to sit off and I'm hoping a strong late SDS drive can get him home again and gain some compensation for me missing it at Redcar. If he can't land the spoils I'll put this horse down to one that got away this season! 4:10 Brighton Highly Sprung (£25) current odds 4.7 |
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On a real poor run with Johnstons runners but cant see past Highly Sprung here, if this doesnt go close I'll just give up.
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great stuff
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justra complete non event
be interesting if that run gets put behind was just never in it from the start. but This is one that has beaten me this season and I won't be following anymore. |
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Town Charter the one that catches the eye most today. Notebooked after HQ run at big odds when never in the race but steadily keeping on in a class 2 off 87 nearly grabbing 2nd behind parfait who is clearly different gravy (won off 100 back at HQ subsequently).
Redcar was disappointing upped to the mile when not really settling, didn't have anything late left in the tank. Chester held up from a wide draw before marked late gains back over 7f, a typical chester run with a poor draw. Ayr was a shocker when well fancied, front running but went out like alight. Ripon in today's class over today's trip didn't get the clearest of runs or going early enough before making late gains off 83 just out of the places. Last run didn't seem to pick up at Newcastle on the tapeta over 7f and has dropped another couple of lbs. A horse that may well just not be quite putting it in but definitely seems to appreciate a bit of cut and the mile trip has on a few occasions looked to be what's probably needed now. Has come down quite significantly in the ratings since the promising HQ run and on a going day in today's class is probably worth a final chance imo at 5/1+ will see nearer the race what the market is looking like |
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3:50 Redcar Town Charter 7.0
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woof woof
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last chance saloons must be about 0-20
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You putting a lid on that one se? Must admit, it went in my notebook after the Parfait run, but managed to swerve it since.
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Perhaps a bit free over a mile again there PHS but It was a bit of an iffy one trust wise, not one I'm going to follow down any further.
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Permian put down
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Poor Permian
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La Casa Tarifa just 3lb higher than winning a similar race ratings wise at course 3 starts back.
well fancied at cramped odds but blew the start at Nottingham then quite likely got bogged down at Goodwood with no market interest on the day in better company. Back at Ripon this one is tempting around 5/1 |
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I'm going to pass but not an easy one to swerve here
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phew, the thing that put me off most was very few of these ones with ?? top answer seem to be bouncing back, certainly not many I've given the benefit anyhow
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*to answer
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SDS good record on these follow ups in the lower classes for yard and top rated horses in such races.
Bonnie Arlene been round the houses trip wise, looks better on turf and should get this trip round here. Price is just about ok imo. 4:00 Ripon Bonnie Arlene (£20) |
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last one of the shorties for the season that one.
doesn't really look like it stays but it's been chopped and changed so much in trip god knows. that was rank anyway |
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A couple of interesting ones today.
The nursery runner Go Now Go Now has some strong angles. class 5 nurseries with a win lto 10-22 (6 expected). Runners remaining in this class from last run that placed lto and see just a 1/2f change in trip are 5-5 (1.2 expected) 2yo nursery runners in the class in August are 10-27 (5.29 expected) PJ is 10-37 on turf 2yo's (5.17 expected) Nepeta started out at last season's GG showing a bit of promise, mdn was landed on 3rd start and some of subsequent from has been patchy regards it's depth but in relation to a race of this sort of class it would often be more than adequate for a horse that should be better over more of a trip this season. The layoffs up to around 6 months don't seem to be a problem but this sort of layoff isn't as strong to hope it's going to be fully wound up today and I have no idea why this has been kept from the track so it has obvious risks attached. I was hoping to find the Beverley air powers of revival to be in evidence with this sort off the layoff but there are none in my DB. Filed under the interesting but risky sort that has definitely not paid off on here this season so far. Valley Of Rocks has been a bit of a character and may well have his own ideas, very keen at times when on the front end before more recent patient tactics which saw a win that at the time I thought could see some further progress (seemed to show a good attitude to get up from unpromising position at Leicester). It looks very much now that he took advantage of them coming back that day in a weak race (19lb lower than today's average OR) and since then has not figured in similar looking races as today's. I can't really see why VOR would have any decent claims against a few of these that should be more capable in the class. |
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Stats on Go Now above ave all round
A shoe in then Nepeta worth a go Ground change a concern but who knows level after layoff Bring on the sun Average field Valley up against a hard rock with up in class GL |
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Going to have a look at these markets on the first 2 hatters
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Get that man some stilettoes
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Good one for the profiles
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Just had to get some air for a few mins.
Confession... thought GNGN race was 4:10  Good that it won for the stats but hardly a consolation, can't afford fook ups like that with the state of play! Not playing any others now. very frustrating but have to get on with it. |
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Morning Suit & Blues today
Drop back & better ground (hope) GL Nepeta ran like a cat nipped his energy |
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No profile pluses today.
Thought Poets Society would like today's stiff test at HQ, the valuable york race 6f when staying on better than anything having raced prominently and getting tapped for toe in today's class (first 5 all won since).Handled soft at chester keeping on again late when headed over 5f.Yes managed to scrape a win at HQ over the minimum but to me that was in spite of conditions and the class was the key. You would think at first glance that this race may be a bit hot but that york run is in the back of the mind still. This conditions mix today could be just the ticket and the low weight may really help in conditions. It's certainly not a confident pick but 17/1 worth a poke, probably last chance to land a race like this if hunch is correct that stern test will suit now. 2:45 Poets Society, current odds 18.0 like so many if the hunch is wrong, he's probably out with the washing! Gl with yours Hatters |
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nice 2yo winner earlier Austrian School
very green but won cosy at the post. some nice 2yo's again this term. |
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should have stuck to the profiles
that one was weak quite a quiet outing on the wrong part of the track |