WD striding

Hi all, hope all is well. On my honeymoon, but thought I'd look in and have a little on Alexandra M to help with the expenses. 2.3 on the exchange? Has everyone gone SDS mad? Not for me. Think I'll get back to the sun and my lovely wife. Adios amigos

date	course	class	selection	BFSP	Stake	pos	rnrs	dist	race return	total returns	staked	ROI
19/04/2017	Beverley	4	Election Day	6.28	10.00	2	6	6l	-£10.00	-£10.00	£10.00	-100.00%
24/04/2017	Pontefract	5	Pennington	10.48	10.00	8	8	30l	-£10.00	-£20.00	£20.00	-100.00%
01/05/2017	Bath	4	Poets Society	5.67	10.00	4	8	2.25l	-£10.00	-£30.00	£30.00	-100.00%
01/05/2017	Beverley	4	Yorkee Mo Sabee	28.40	5.00	9	10	14l	-£5.00	-£35.00	£35.00	-100.00%
05/05/2017	Musselburgh	4	Thomas Cranmer	8.28	5.00	1	9	nk	£34.58	-£0.42	£40.00	-1.05%
06/05/2017	Newmarket(R)	2	Abareeq	15.80	10.00	4	9	3.25l	-£10.00	-£10.42	£50.00	-20.84%
06/05/2017	Goodwood	5	Alexander M	11.50	10.00	2	12	0.5l	-£10.00	-£20.42	£60.00	-34.03%
07/05/2017	Newmarket(R)	2	Final	13.50	10.00	5	12	4.25l	-£10.00	-£30.42	£70.00	-43.46%
07/05/2017	Hamilton	5	Hamster Jam	23.00	10.00	2	11	1.25l	-£10.00	-£40.42	£80.00	-50.53%
10/05/2017	Chester	2	Emilia James	7.47	10.00	4	10	2.75l	-£10.00	-£50.42	£90.00	-56.02%
19/05/2017	York	1	Izzy Bizu	14.38	10.00	11	13	11l	-£10.00	-£60.42	£100.00	-60.42%
19/05/2017	York	4	Dominating	20.11	10.00	8	11	17.5l	-£10.00	-£70.42	£110.00	-64.02%
19/05/2017	Hamilton	3	Yorkidding	5.80	10.00	3	8	sh,nse	-£10.00	-£80.42	£120.00	-67.02%
21/05/2017	Ripon	5	Musbaq	12.34	10.00	5	7	17.5l	-£10.00	-£90.42	£130.00	-69.55%
22/05/2017	Carlisle	5	Il Sicario	5.10	10.00	5	8	3.5l	-£10.00	-£100.42	£140.00	-71.73%
26/05/2017	Bath	6	Pennington	24.00	10.00	13	13	22l	-£10.00	-£110.42	£150.00	-73.61%
26/05/2017	Musselburgh	4	Star Of Lombardy	9.80	5.00	4	9	7.5l	-£5.00	-£115.42	£155.00	-74.46%
26/05/2017	Musselburgh	5	Kiribati	20.00	5.00	6	8	15l	-£5.00	-£120.42	£160.00	-75.26%
27/05/2017	Haydock	2	Rusumaat	7.47	10.00	1	11	2.5l	£61.47	-£58.96	£170.00	-34.68%
29/05/2017	Redcar	2	Rainbow Rebel	12.42	8.00	2	9	6l	-£8.00	-£66.96	£178.00	-37.62%
29/05/2017	Redcar	2	Beardwood	15.00	2.00	5	9	9l	-£2.00	-£68.96	£180.00	-38.31%
31/05/2017	Nottingham	5	Dominating	3.20	20.00	1	7	4l	£41.80	-£27.16	£200.00	-13.58%
06/06/2017	Wetherby	6	Pennington	34.72	3.00	10	10	34l	-£3.00	-£30.16	£203.00	-14.85%
08/06/2017	Ripon	5	Powerful Love	7.00	10.00	8	9	39l	-£10.00	-£40.16	£213.00	-18.85%
08/06/2017	Ripon	5	Gold Merlion	16.46	5.00	5	7	18l	-£5.00	-£45.16	£218.00	-20.71%
09/06/2017	Goodwood	5	Alexander M	7.84	5.00	2	8	1.25l	-£5.00	-£50.16	£223.00	-22.49%
09/06/2017	Goodwood	3	Berengaria	5.19	10.00	5	5	10l	-£10.00	-£60.16	£233.00	-25.82%
14/06/2017	Haydock	4	Storm Cry	5.10	10.00	3	8	1l	-£10.00	-£70.16	£243.00	-28.87%
17/06/2017	York	2	Poets Society	50.91	5.00	4	18	1.5l	-£5.00	-£75.16	£248.00	-30.30%
17/06/2017	York	2	Poets Society	8.00	5.00	4	18	1.5l	£33.25	-£41.91	£253.00	-16.56%
17/06/2017	Sandown	3	Comedy School	34.05	10.00	8	8	8.5l	-£10.00	-£51.91	£263.00	-19.74%

selections	31
wins	4
expected wins BFSP	3.27
avg odds	14.49

Comedy School was supposed to be half stakes but didn't specify so given full stakes.

Switch back to good ground & up dist for Laureate makes it worth a look

Lucky dip with the other 2
GL

That was just poor, was in the right place the way the race was run but didn't pick up, perhaps a well deserved break, should be competitive in races like this as mark comes down.

yes nice run hatters wd nearly defied the glitch

Some strong stat pointers for the 5:35 at Royal Ascot today. It's a tough gig here and many of the yard's go off at huge prices in these tough hcps so the 1-50 record in these big money class 2 3yo hcps is only to be expected (avg odds 49.52). It's interesting to me that on profiles at other meets where the yard does better than the market expects in these big money class 2's (certainly up to 40- 75k prizes), I have none of these in my DB to have run at the royal meeting so far until this race today.

Mister Manduro and Bear valley share characteristics putting them in a in a 3-9 (0.54 expected) group for this sort of profiled race from a general sample of 5-87 (4.16 expected). Winning lto and the already in the book at conditions progression actually puts sofias rock behind both for me (SR has gone up 15lb since first of 2 wins at trip and no lto winners have managed to collect in 21 attempts from the general sample in these valuable class 2 3yo hcps).

Mister Manduro has not won at the class yet and looks on the upgrade with it's mark with no exposure at the distance, these 2 factors score higher than Bear Valley but BV is still dangerous on many of the other factors i look at for races such as this so I think a saver is probably a decent shout. You have to say SDS on MM also can't do confidence too much harm but the sheikh's runners are rarely to be overlooked when unexposed at distance.

5:35 Royal Ascot Mister Manduro, current odds 10.5
5:35 Royal Ascot Bear Valley, current odds 27.0 (£5)

MM's a nonner striding

MM nr  a great result for the books ,they had it short in anticipation and now everyone gets a short back and sides .

win win ,what a result

yes B&B i knew the other entry but the reason given today was the ground, ground likely to be the same tomorrow

A real clash of top festival class 2 stats for big money vs normal run of the mill class 2 stats coming up in these 2 races

Rusumaat and sofias rock would qualify in the latter group but are weak in  the former.

sticking to guns and leaving them both

what could possibly go wrong

BV ran a very sound race there for the place (think 3rd)

should be able to find a decent hcp this season

winner different gravy unfortunately

Quite like the look of Monticello on 2nd seasonal run making the journey down to HQ this evening, tried in better company over shorter and should have more to offer over a trip this season.Back on a better surface and had a chance to come on from last run at a meeting that has been successfully targeted.

6:20 Newmarket(july) Monticello current price 8.0

Town Charter was eye catching last time but not lost on market and happy to pass at price.

Still a bit undecided on a couple at Ascot, will post nearer time if playing.

group2 dropped 1 furlong

MJ targeted the final 2 races on the Ascot card before, 7 wins in the Queens Vase in it's various guises including a runner in the Edinburgh cup en route, Namibian was 3rd in that race behind stablemate Eternal Heart before reversing the form to take the QV at Ascot nto over the extra distance, interestingly the market at Ascot had them firmly in the right order for the reversal with Namibian going off favourite and in general the market does get the yard's runners right when the price differential is clear in high profile events.

AOB has started getting success in this race recently and like all the big hcps here they are devilishly tough but with MJ's history I'm going to split stakes on his 2 pretty unexposed runners for a bit of interest.

The Duke Of Edinburgh stakes has also seen yard success with 3 winners, Fox Hunt the last in 2011 took in the same Epsom race tasting success like Soldier In Action before taking the Ascot prize off a 4lb higher 99 rating.Soldier In Action was looking well handicapped again but I left him lto thinking Goodwood was the likely big target this season. 105 is back to his highest mark and on balance is probably going to prove just beyond this horse making these big hcps a tough proposition. Then again 15 turf races for a 4yo is not inconceivable that this term some further improvement can be squeezed and another big  run in one of these big money hcps can be landed.At around 25/1 I think it's worth finding out if the horse has reached it's ceiling today, again for smaller stakes.

5:00 Ascot Time To Study (£6), current odds 9.4
5:00 Ascot Mister Manduro (£4), current odds 17.0

5:30 Ascot Soldier In Action (£5), current odds 27.0

and the distance was the same today shirley

yes i was aware thanks platini, the 2 runners will have no problem with the trip.

I'm starting to think MM is a Goodwood horse now

Ascot like epsom meet starting to look like the Permian show

market suggetsing SOI is too high in the ratings now

gl Platini

At least the other meets have not been raining winners during Royal Ascot, been plenty turned over at pretty low odds this week.

Hope the HQ runner can do the business later, need a winner.

MJ will be making hay at Goodwood, as always. Money to be made there.

*event