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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
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selections plural
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I messed up with the thread title, chav, should have been something with 'guesses' in it
 Obviously I try to pick them at prices, but at this rate I may resort to picking shorties! |
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I was only jesting about picking a Jardine runner if he had one in against mine, it was only in that particular race, at a big price, I thought Star Of Spring was worth risking given it had looked at Hamilton as though Jardine would get a win out of her at some point.
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george i think its a good thread mate.only on the wind up
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cheers chav, unfortunately it's been bereft of winners in the main (though you wouldn't have done badly had you followed mackies
 ), but hey, here's hoping... |
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Oceane, 2 pts EW @ 13-2, 4.20 York
Oceane looks a horse at the top of his game at the moment, two starts back doing best off a slow pace to come out on top over 1m6f at Ascot, and last time in the 2m5f handicap at Glorious Goodwood, perhaps being a shade unfortunate not to follow up, having travelled noticeably well throughout but then having to wait for a run in the straight before running on strongly for 3rd. The draw could have been kinder, but off just a 1lb higher mark, hopefully he can at least go close here. Storm Cry, 1pt win @ 9-1, 4.55 York Sizeable filly who may be improving with racing as she strengthens up; she may not have beaten much last time out over 6f at Ripon, but she impressed with the manner of her victory, making all and powering clear for an emphatic win; she goes handicapping off 79 and who knows, but given her scope, it could underestimate her. An obvious concern here is trap 20 given how races have been tending to pan out on the sprint course at York this season. Keiba, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 9.10 Kempton Bit of a tentative one this; he caught my eye last time over C/D in a race where the pace held up, seemingly travelling well at the back of the pack but not getting the clearest of runs; he didn' t exactly motor home when in the clear but he wasn't given a hard time either. He cost £90,000 at the breeze-ups last season, so fair to he's been a disappointment thus far, but he's down in the weights and in grade here, with cheekpieces given a go, and interesting to see if he can build on that latest effort which might have offered some promise; draw could have been kinder. |
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Blinkers certainly had an effect anyway
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unlucky mackies, a bit lit up there
Good to see a high drawn horse run well, though it doesn't look any advantage |
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wd george
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Great stuff George. 2pt job
 Didnt look in doubt 3 out, thought for a minute he wasnt going to go past! |
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Cheers, my first winner since the old king was still on the throne
 Thought the Jardine hoss was gonna win for the sec  |
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Georgy
nice |
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This multi selection thing is the way forward
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WD GB
Must be the chav influence |
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WD with Oceane
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Thanks, I was forgetting what it was like to pick a winner
chav, I think it's what's known in the business as dart throwing |
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wd George
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ta striding
Typical, I don't take one EW (for a change) in a 16+-runner handicap and it goes and places But I was worried about the draw and thought it would be all or nothing  |
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Astrophysics, 1pt win @ 14-1, 8.10 Hamilton
Astrophysics finished runner-up in the Flying Childers as a juvenile and was rated as high as 105; it's been pretty much downhill ever since, however, there were signs on his latest start over 5f at Pontefract that he may be finding his level again, on just his third run for Linda Stubbs; held up from a wide draw in a race where the winner made all, he caught my eye travelling nicely but didn't get the clearest of runs in the straight and wasn't given a hard time. A further drop of 2lb to a rating of 70 allows him into this 0 - 70 contest, and while his outside draw may not be ideal, a chance is taken at a double figure price that his latest start signified an upturn in his form. |
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Hang on, wrote LS in me notes and getting mixed up
Soz, not Linda Stubbs, Lynn Siddall |
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Barnacle Bill, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 6.20 Killarney
Barnacle Bill shaped nicely on his recent return to the Flat and handicap debut in a 15f race at Leopardstown dominated by unexposed / progressive 3YOs; he was given a rating of 84 on the back of his maiden win last season, but was quickly dropped to 80 following a disappointing run in a rated race at Gowran where he finished last of 10, beaten 38l, but presumably something was amiss that day and he wasn't seen again for 5 months, when contesting a couple of hurdle races (including a Grade 3) on heavy ground in late winter. His recent return to the level was remarkable in that he took a keen hold for most of the race yet left the impression he would have finished a lot closer but for meeting interference and losing his position as the field turned into the straight; hopefully that run will have taken the freshness out of him and not left its mark on this relatively quick return to action. Barnacle Bill has to prove hmself on what is likely to be quicker ground, but with no unexposed 3YOs to worry about this time, hopefully he has benefitted from his recent reappearance and can be competitive here. |
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Good luck George
Im going for a repeat performance from Chill the Kite today. Last years win is from the same mark is engrained on my memory as one of the most remarkable wins ive seen and the clock backed it up. |
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Good luck with CTK, mackies.
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unlucky george, your horse hammered the other ones up the far side/centre
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1.7 in the run Stevie and not even placed
Yeah, looked like the draw did for him on first impressions |
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Two against the field in the 6.20 at double-figure prices
Zeteah, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.20 Wolverhampton Bit of a leap of faith required for this one; the notebook run came over C/D last September when she was runner-up to Clary, who went on to win her next two starts and ended up rated 12lb higher, with a subsequent winner behind her in third. Zeteah didn't get the run of things that day, being shuffled to last place and ending up with a bit to do before finishing her race of well to chase home the well-handicapped winner. She hasn't offered much since, having run only once more in 2015 before a six month break and the five runs this season haven't suggested a win is imminent, including over C/D (though that run came on her reappearance and might have been needed). She's just out of the handicap here but she's well handicapped on that C/D run from last September and interesting to see if a return to Wolverhampton prompts a better effort. Just Fred, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 6.20 Wolverhampton I selected Just Fred when he ran at Salisbury recently having thought he shaped a bit better than the bare result on his penultimate start at Brighton, and then been prepared to overlook the run at Chepstow on account of the 7f trip having been too sharp / not handling the track; he let the side down but it's possible track position and ground weren't ideal either at Salisbury (and I note that Infiniti, who also disappointed in that race, has since come out and run much better); he clearly has his limitations, but as he has previously shown a glimmer of ability on the AW, I'm going to give him another chance, racing on Tapeta for the first time. |
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Unlucky last night George.
Good luck today, ive not looked at the Wolves card yet as ive spent too long going round in circles on the Nunthorpe. A cracking renewal imo. One I do like today in spite of what looks a poor draw on the face of things is Doctor Parkes at Sandown. His three career runs there have all been excellent and recently he has shaped like there is a race in him. Likely to be ridden for luck today but if he puts it all together he can take this at a tasty price. |
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Good luck with Dr P, mackies
hopefully the rain holds off for him |
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Pearl Secret, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5 PLACES
Pearl Secret is my crazy EW selection for the Nunthorpe with 5 places on offer; he hasn't always had things go his way at the top level, including in this race last year when done no favours by the delay as he boiled over, yet didn't run badly in circumstances having been dropped in from a wide draw and left with a bit to do; it was a similar case in the Abbaye last season when done no favours by the draw, but running creditably to finish as close as he did having been dropped in. He looked in good nick on his latest start in the Group 2 sprint at Glorious Goodwood, when never seeing much daylight and shaping a good bit better than the bare result; of course he could just be the ultimate late-headway monkey, but that's probably being a bit harsh on a horse who has won 7 of his 24 career starts; and while he could probably do with the rain getting in, he has shaped as though he has one of these biggies in him when the cards fall right. |
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I gave him some consideration George. But then I did with most of the field!!
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GL with Zeta GB
My groat is on it too |
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Good luck to us both, madhatters
I'm intrigued that they're persevering with her, and maybe she'll rediscover some form at some point (hopefully tonight!), though given the stable, no surprise if it coincides with the application of cash to the betting markets! |
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Hurdling beckons
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The last time that Zeteah won was at salisbury where the explanation was the mare benefited from being held up off the pace.
Today they went from the front and may have gone a bit quick, also no tongue tie today or last few runs. But really you'd expect better. still might pop up sometime when the money is down no doubt. |
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will be interesting to see how your previous notebook horse biotic gets on over a mile at sandown tomorrow george.
could have e/w chance if there is a good pace on, notice they've kept the tongue tie on too and you just wonder if there is some kind of breathing problem as hasn't been finishing races all that strongly. |
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Failing to spot the tongue tie being missing really is a shocking schoolboy error, given she was wearing it for the win and the notebook run
Who knows, if she is being lined up for a punt, maybe it'll be in some crappy class 6 or 7 during the winter, but if they get her back to the form of that run last September, she should be up to winning one of these, with or without the tt. As for the other one, he showed a bit more, but it was just a bit All things considered, another crock of sh*t |
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Drop to a mile looks worth a go Stevie, because as you say he hasn't been finding at the business end, and it was disappointing last time that he couldn't even get past Compton Mill who appeared to have done plenty and was a sitting duck.
Suppose the MJ horse may go forward from the inside trap and Unison was prominent last time, so there should be some pace on to run at, but I've removed him from the notebook and won't be getting involved! |
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Wall Of Fire, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.50 York
Wall of Fire ran in the same Glorious Goodwood 12f handicap as a few of these and came of worst, but that doesn't tell the full story as he was short of room around 1.5f out before trying to make headway when hampered and squeezed out inside the final furlong; perhaps it was just late headway against horses who had been in the heat of the race and were slowing down, but that said both Shraaoh and Mister Blueyes had also been towards the rear and they're a lot shorter in the betting today. Wall Of Fire seems to have improved for stepping up in trip having been successful when upped to 10.5f at Haydock in July and he looks worth a crack at this 14f trip on the evidence of the Goodwood run. He wears blinkers and can take some driving along, so I'm not sure he's the easiest, but this longer trip may enable him to travel more kindly and he seems verstaile regarding ground conditions. |
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Good luck George
Oceanographer struck me over the winter as a horse than might land a big pot and takes my fancy in the Ebor. I think Poyle Vinnie has a good chance to get back to winning ways at Chester too. |
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GL George and Mackies
Looks wide open the ebor, I've gone for Siesmos 32 on here. I think he retains a fair amount of ability and I think 14f on good ground is just about ideal. In a race where nothing looks very well handicapped then I've thrown a small amount on him. |