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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
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Fair point mackies and the fav is 3lb 'well-in' anyway. My main concern is that travels better than he did at Ayr cuz he wouldn't want to be getting too far behind round there.
I see the trainer still owns him too, never a good sign imo, we'll see! |
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A few hes kept in his colours have done well over the years. Verinco springs immediately to mind.
Today I like Golden Thread, Hurricane Alert and I feel if Sir Hugh wasnt on holiday then Poppy in the Wind would be favourite. I think she might even have a pacemaker and Ms Doyle is well worth her claim. Good luck. |
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Can see the logic with this one George, the jock's interpretation of the last run (patchy slow ground) seems spot on to me as had plenty of speed over 6 the previous run and the finishing effort suggests this trip could be fine.
MJ's could probably get 10f already, will be interesting to see how it handles any early pace pressure, don't think a kick finish would suit it back in trip today. |
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Good luck with your three, mackies. The one that nutted mine on the line the other night had been a St Hugh project.
Cheers for those thoughts, striding. I was kind and said he was 'green' at Hamilton rather being blunt and describing it as 'hanging', and the way he went at Ayr did put a seed of doubt in my mind, but hopefully the better ground today will see him travel more kindly. He's into 3s with a 20p R4. |
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gl
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Unlucky George
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MJ's did pretty well there imo not got the necessary gear change at trip. Smart's disappointing there George ul
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backing blind , favs 6/7,chevely stud 14 days.
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Thanks for that, db59
Disappointing, even for allowing for being a bit free on the outer. Another one that can be safely removed from the notebook. There's always tomorrow... |
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Like a trainer on the cold list, it's fair to say I could use a winner!
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Mister Musicmaster, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.50 Newbury
It wasn't so much the run itself that my caught my eye on his latest start over 7f at Chepstow, it was more the fact that they were running him over that trip when there was a more suitable 1m (last five wins at this distance) handicap just half-an-hour later with the same rating band; as it turned out, he didn't shape too badly, keeping on well inside the final furlong over a trip sharp enough, with a subsequent winner just ahead of him; he meets the winner Corporal Maddox on 6lb better terms. He hadn't been in much form prior to that, though he did run well on a couple of occasions in the spring, including when finishing close up at Windsor in early May off a 4lb higher mark than today's. Mister Musicmaster isn't getting any younger and he's had plenty of racing, but he's shown enough this year to suggest there could be another handicap in him, and this isn't a race with any unexposed ones in it, so off a 3lb lower mark than when scoring over course-and-distance last summer, a chance is taken at a double-figure price. |
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Good Luck George, like the name lets hope he's tuned up
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Cheers Breeding'.
Hopefully Steve Drowne can hit the right notes on him  |
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Hard working Jock deserves a winner
We need a smiley update |
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Gl George.
Red Stripes has me a bit excited today. Dropped 6lb from his run in a much better race at Goodwood. Have a look at the Goodwood run! |
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Good luck with RS, mackies. See what you mean about the run. I've tended to think of him as an AW horse, but tbf, he hasn't had many chances on turf.
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Somebody To Love, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 2.15 Newmarket
Somebody To Love makes a little appeal at a double-figure price on this drop back in class to nursery company; this 100,000 gns breeze-up buy was fairly impressive on her debut at Sandown in June, overcoming a slow start and trouble in running to win going away, in the style of a filly who looked sure be competitive at a higher level. Fair to say she hasn't lived up to those expectations in two starts since when upped in class, but those two runs are easy enough to excuse, on the first occasion in Listed company when failing to cope with heavy ground, and last time at Group 2 level when attempting to come from the rear in a race where it looked a distinct advantage to race close to the pace. Somebody To Love is in calmer waters here and although she has to concede weight all round, she looks worth at least one more chance to build on that impressive debut success, with her pedigree (half-sister to two 10f winners) and how she shaped last time suggesting this step up in trip to 7f should be fine. |
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Good luck George
Cornwallville for me today. |
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Good luck mackies. Unlucky yesterday, that could have gone better from the jock's point of view imo.
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Note to self: be wary of 6-figure breeze-up meatballs who are 'impressive' on debut.
Perhaps Someone To Love will be joining War Department up norf in the near future.... |
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Nice one mackies, VWD!
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Thanks George
Think he could be interesting at Ayr depending on what the handicapper does |
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Sunday's two selections are very much on the speculative side, or to put it bluntly, are a bit 'guessy'
 Raaqy, 1 pt EW @ 25-1, 3.45 Pontefract Raaqy looks up up against it on official ratings but she's of a little interest at a big price on this drop in trip to 6f; her season started well enough when finishing runner-up over a mile in a conditions race at Ascot in April (the third went on to win a Listed race to give the form some substance), but she has severely compromised her chance in two starts since by racing too freely, including last time in Listed company at Ascot when tried in a hood. She did win over an extended 6f on her debut last season at Doncaster, and although longer trips shouldn't be a problem on pedigree (by Dubawi and out of 1000 Guineas winner Natagora), her refusal to settle has been an issue since. Perhaps the drop to sprinting smacks of being a last resort, but if it helps her settle better and race more economically, interesting to see if she can be more competitive at the business end and belatedly build on her early promise. Shepherd's Purse, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.10 Dundalk I selected this horse on his first two runs this season and typically he went and won on his third start when I didn't ; the story was he'd been quite a useful 2YO who didn't really go on as a 3YO, but I thought there was enough in some of the runs to suggest he could be competitive at a lower level.The two runs since his win at Gowran Park in June have been disappointing, but they came in £60K Premier Handicaps at the Curragh and 5f might have been sharp enough on the first occasion; this looks slightly easier on his AW debut, and being a half-brother to a dual Polytrack winner, interesting to see if the surface suits; cheekpieces applied; drawn wide. Also 1 pt double  |
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* 1 pt EW double
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well done mackies.
bit of trivia regarding cornwallville was he ran in a group 1 in france...and his next run was in a claimer(i must lead a very boring life ) |
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4th for Shepherd's Purse, when ya luck's out...
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Bumped into a couple of group class performers on a going day George. I thought for a good while Moviesta would win a group 1 but it didnt quite happen for him. A good pick unlucky.
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Best Boy, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 4.45 Thirsk
Best Boy makes some appeal on this first attempt at 12f; he ran a strange sort of race on his latest start over 10.5f at Haydock, tracking the pace and travelling nicely but soon being outpaced in the straight and looking like he was going to be well beaten before staying on well in the final furlong to close on the principals and seeming to finish with running left in him, suggesting perhaps he could have done with a stronger pace or he needs a longer trip. That 5-runner affair didn't look the strongest of races, but this is a slight ease in grade for him and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb; also looking back through his form, it's not the first time he has shaped as though worth a crack at this longer trip; his latest run was just his second of the season and he should be at peak fitness now. Be Bop Tango, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.15 Thirsk Be Bop Tango is of a little interest off his falling mark and on this first attempt at 7f; he caught my eye back in April at Pontefract when not getting the clearest of runs round the inner and shaping a little better than the bare result; he hasn't built on that effort in two runs since, but he faced a tough task in a higher grade on his next start and his latest race was dominated by some in-form sprinters. He has to prove he still has something to offer having been mainly disappointing since winning his maiden (though was highly tried after in his juvenile campaign), but this looks a little easier for him back against his own age group and he's now 13lb below his initial mark and 7lb below the mark he ran off at Pontefract; a first-time visor is applied. Also 1 pt EW double . |
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I did notebook Pickett's Charge on his latest start (also runs in the 3.15) having endured a troubled passage up the straight over a mile at Thirsk, and that race worked out really well; he hasn't run since and is dropping in trip here, but if he returns in the same form then he's clearly a big danger.
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Hillcrest Fire, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.20 Roscommon
This may be a warm little maiden for Roscommon on a Monday afternoon, with a seemingly well supported Bolger-trained debutant heading the betting and newcomers from the Harrington and Mullins yards that don't seem without support themselves, but at 16-1, Hillcrest Fire makes a little EW appeal. I thought there was definite promise on her debut at Cork over 6f, when from an outside draw she missed the break and looked pretty clueless in rear before catching the eye with her finishing effort; she did race a little awkwardly and given she was hooded for her debut, what may be perceived as greenness may in fact be temperament, but at this early stage I'll put it down to inexperience. She's out of a Darshaan mare who was a 12f Listed winner, so her pedigree doesn't lack for stamina and this extra furlong can only help, and while she may be one for further down the line when there is more emphasis on stamina, I thought there was enough in her debut run to make her of interest here, in the hope she has gone the right way mentally from it. |
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It could be going better, I'll grant you that. Be Bop Tango tanked along in the first time visor and traded around 4s IR, but then couldn't quicken for toffee and just kept on one pace out wide. Best Boy just did what he had done at Haydock and kept on when it was all over, while Hillcrest Fire was well supported in the market, but only made laboured progress into 4th and probably is a bit iffy.
All things considered, another crock of sh*t. |
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Athassel, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 6.20 Tipperary
For someone finding winners hard to come by, perhaps picking 7YO 29-race maidens rated 45 is the last thing I should be doing, but Athassel makes a little EW appeal at a price; presumably there'd been an issue as he didn't reappear until June at Cork, but as was his way for much of last season he made up a lot of late ground to threaten for a place; his latest run is easy enough to excuse over a longer trip as he never saw much daylight in the straight at Killarney. Some of his form from last season doesn't read too badly, notably two runs at this course over a slightly shorter trip, when finishing a length behind Plough Boy who's now rated in the 80s, and also when only a length behind another big improver Northern Surprise (who admittedly seemed to improve for racing on Polytrack, but he also went on to win again on turf off a 5lb higher mark). Clearly Athassel isn't one to be going overboard about, but his reappearance run suggested he's still capable of being competitive in these handicaps and on his best form from last season he'd have an EW chance here. |
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Unlucky George. Got no sort of run at any stage.
Line of Reason looks interesting today in a very tricky race. I think I narrowly prefer Robot Boy, any improvement for the headgear would see him win. Always a bit of guesswork with first time headgear though. |
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That's how it looked mackies, but that's how it tends to be with him, given how he's usually ridden. Maybe one will fall into his lap one day, and he's run well at Dundalk before, so they've got that option too.
Good luck with Robot Boy |
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Thursdays selections:
Oceane, 2pts EW @ 13-2, 4.20 York Storm Cry, 1pt win @ 9-1, 4.55 York Keiba 1pt EW @ 16-1, 9.10 Kempton |
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I can't even get the day right
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nor the format
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^ 1.01 landed
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we are now in contentious territory george where the original directive to pick one horse has morphed into three.
are you pricewise please? |
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it may have escaped your attention that ian jardine has a runner in the 4.20 which is usually a mitigating factor in your selections.
not wanting to go over old ground though.  |