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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
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Replies: 1,155
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Like buses GB
WD  |
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Please say you done the double! VWD
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Quids in George! Well done
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It's funny Stevie, even when this thread wins I f*cking fume, I was putting them in EW doubles last week to try and pull the thread out of the mire and of course when I don't...
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Cheers btw
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As I always say George, keep the faith. The prices you aim it you will have frustrating runs. Weeks like this make it all worth while though! Haven't picked anything myself today so a lovely little bonus following the thread
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Thanks mackies. A couple of nice days like today and Saturday make doing the thread worthwhile, even if they are dropping out the back of the telly a lot the rest of the time!
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Great stuff George, not looked in for ages, picked a good day.
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Cheers saddo, luckily the rain had an affect, unlike much at York last week!
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I am several days behind agin, not seen York yet
 . I never notebook winners but was taken with the finishing effort of Monsieur Valentine at Brighton lto. Bad race but would have won comfortably with a clear passage, and the hoss really took some pulling up. Goes at Brighton in the last. |
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VWD George, on a roll!
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Good luck with MV, saddo.
The point about York was that they didn't water, so there wasn't the farce of having rain on watered ground, and it showed in the times which remained fairly rapid, even allowing for the effect of the wind. Cheers stewarts, patience is a virtue!  |
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You might want to back Bingo George in that race after today's results.
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Great stuff George I'm not surprised given the amount of winners on this this thread that didn't run their races for whatever reason
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Cheers Fl, nice to hit a little purple patch!
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Very well done there George
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Ta striding
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wd George
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Excellent tipping George
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Cheers Virgin and pumphol, if only it could last...
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Coolfitch, 1pt win @ 9-1, 5.10 Newbury
It didn't look the strongest of nurseries that Coolfitch won two starts back over 5f at Carlisle, but it has worked out well with three susequent winners coming out of the race, and Coolfitch seemed to win with a quite a bit in hand, travelling strongly but having to wait for a gap from well over a furlong out until inside the furlong, before quickening smartly to put the race to bed. She was returning from a 6-week break that day and it's quite possible the race came soon enough just six days later under a 6lb penalty over 6f at Hamilton, when she was noticeably on edge before the race and did herself no favours in the race itself over the extra furlong, racing too keenly before weakening inside the final furlong. She's returning here from a 3-week break here and hopefully will be more relaxed than she was at Hamilton, while the return to 5f should suit; one query regarding her chance is whether she wants the ground on the quick side, but the two times she has raced on good to firm previously came in stronger company (Listed race at York and the Hilary Needler at Beverley) than she meets here. Captain Bob 1pt win @ 12-1, 6.50 Newbury Captain Bob probably caught a few eyes on his penultimate run at over 5f at Beverley, held up some way off the pace, meeting some trouble over 1f out, before running on well to just miss third despite not being knocked about; he was sent off favourite on his latest start over 6f at Yarmouth, but failed to settle and paid the price late on. He's now 11lb below the mark he won off (over 7f) for his previous yard back in June 2014 and the signs this season suggest he should be up to going close off this mark when racing more efficiently. |
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St Mary's 1pt win @ 14-1, 8.10 Chelmsford
Goldenfield, 1pt win @ 11-1, 8.10 Chelmsford Now the fav has come out and the race looks more open, St Mary's makes a bit of appeal on this step up to 10f; the notebook run was her second start, over a mile at Windsor, when she stayed on strongly into third, suggesting in line with her pedigree (she's a granddaughter of Oaks winner Casual Glance) that longer trips will be more suitable. St Marys was then sent up to Thirsk for a mile maiden on what might have looked like a third run for a mark, but she only went and won, pulling clear with the evens money fav (who's rated 86 and has since won a maiden). That obviously didn't do her mark any good and she was given a rating of 82, which looked beyond her on handicap debut at Kempton over a mile, though she wasn't disgraced behind a winner who returned to winning form off his reduced mark, with a couple of unexposed sorts ahead of her in second and third. The assessor has eased her 2lb for that run and she is of interest upped in trip to 10f on both pedigree and run style; there will hopefully be some pace on, with Goldenfields a possible pace angle, and he too is of some interest with the possibility he could dictate from the front. Goldenfields found a Glorious Goodwood handicap too much for him on his latest start but prior to that had been progressing well on a decent surface (defeat two starts back at Windsor when only 3rd of 5 came on soft ground). It could just be a mark in the 80s is beyond him and he's 20lb higher than when last seen on the AW, but one of his AW runs at Wolverhampton reads a lot better now than it did at the time, particularly as he probably did too much in front, as the winner was Sark, who went on to win the Doncaster handicap in which Red Verdon was an unlucky second, with subsequent winners in third and fourth. Another positive for Goldenfields is the form of his trainer, who has sent out five winners in the last fortnight. |
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Unlucky yesterday George
Red Stripes has got cliff horse written all over him for me but I cant ignore him today 7lb lower than his Goodwood run 2 lengths behind a subsequent top handicap winner and a group 1 fourth, especially with the plum draw and a returning 7lb claimer who gets on well with the horse Good luck today |
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Red Stripes
  cost me a fortune on one of his occasional wins - why that day gl mackies .... |
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6.40 Kemp MUKAABRA 9-1 e/w on the back of it's debut win on a/w
Unlucky on the win yesterday George ... gl |
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Good luck mackies and Virgin
Coolfitch ran on well for third and finished with running left in her, but on quick ground wasn't able to reel them in. Goldenfield dictated as expected and had his chance but the fav was too strong; the filly St Mary's ran OK I thought, but I felt she was never in a good spot, a bit wide and off the pace, but she stuck at it and perhaps may be worth another chance, particularly against her own sex. Captain Bob, not sure about him after that, unless he'd prefer slightly easier ground (both wins on "good") |
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Inishmacateer, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.00 Down Royal
A bit on the speculative side this one, particularly as the notebook run came on better ground; she's a 5YO mare who's only had nine starts and appears limited as indicated by her lowly rating, but she caught my eye a little on her latest start at Down Royal in a race won by Catwilldo (whom she meets here on 13lb better terms after claims are taken into consideration), being denied a clear run and losing whatever chance she might have had. There were a few 'firsts' going on at Down Royal, her first run at 5f, her first run in a tongue tie and her first run on a sound surface on turf; if it was the latter that might have been the catalyst for an improved showing then this evening's surface is going to be an issue; a first time hood is added and the tongue tie is retained; she's drawn on the outside in 14 which wouldn't appear to be great, but apparently the stats show it may be a slight advantage. |
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* 6.00 Bellewstown
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Good luck George with Inishmacateer, just looked back at that last race, did not get the best of runs but probably just got tapped for toe at the business end hence the squeezing out but did look to still have something in the tank at the end, quite possibly it wont like the conditions but on the other hand a stiffer five on this ground may well help, you would not want to be on easy ground say over seven but quite possibly it may help over the minimum, I make it 15lb better of with Catwilldo & fully see your reasoning for backing this one.
Good luck |
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Cheers for your thoughts, pumphol, you've pretty much summed it, it wasn't one where I was thinking she'd definitely would have gone close but for the interference, but it's caught for my eye as they trying a few different things and it looked she had running left in her at the line. However, as you say, it could be she lacked the pace to take the gap when it was there and that's led to the trouble in running.
Apologies, it is 15lb, could make all the difference! Good luck with your picks today. |
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I've just had a look back to refresh my memory instead of just referring to what I'd written.
There was never a gap there, it's just a question of what she would have found had there been daylight and if she would have had the pace to have been able to go with the principals. Whatever, she shaped better than the bare result and at a big price is worth at least one chance to see if there was something there to build on. |
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MUKAABRA
10-1 Lost pics 5 times in the race and missed from the bend but market says a winner  |
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Nice one Virgin
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Ta George
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Well done Virgin
Unlucky George. Inishmacateer ran a good race. |
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Amateur riders races on the AW wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea but Fujin Dancer makes plenty of appeal for me at 12s in the first at Wolves. Good luck today.
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Good luck with Fujin Dancer, mackies
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[bXenon, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.45 Wolverhampton[/b]
Xenon makes a little EW appeal at 16-1; the notebook run was her second start, over 5f at Lingfield (AW), when from the widest draw she was dropped in and I noted her travelling strongly but found found herself on the inner in the straight and didn't get much of a run before going on at the finish; mixed messages from the form of that novice event, though the winner hasn't been disgraced in Listed company since and the third has gone on to win a maiden. Xenon's limitations have seemingly been exposed in two starts since but she has faced relatively stiff tasks, with the novice she was 5th in at Chelmsford having been won by Equimou, who has since gone on to finish runner-up to Mrs Danvers in Listed company, while the third has since finished runner-up off a mark of 78 to an unexposed one of Sir Michael Stoute's; her latest start and nursery debut came in class 4 comapny against males and she was out of the handicap. Xenon has been dropped 2lb to a mark of 62 and this drop to class 6 company looks more realsitic, though that said there look to be a few in here who might have been hiding their lights under a bushel or will be seen to better effect in nurseries / on the AW, but at a price, a chance is taken on Xenon. |
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Xenon, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.45 Wolverhampton
Xenon makes a little EW appeal at 16-1; the notebook run was her second start, over 5f at Lingfield (AW), when from the widest draw she was dropped in and I noted her travelling strongly but found herself on the inner in the straight and didn't get much of a run before going on at the finish; mixed messages from the form of that novice event, though the winner hasn't been disgraced in Listed company since and the third has gone on to win a maiden. Xenon's limitations have seemingly been exposed in two starts since but she has faced relatively stiff tasks, with the novice she was 5th in at Chelmsford having been won by Equimou, who has since gone on to finish runner-up to Mrs Danvers in Listed company, while the third has since finished runner-up off a mark of 78 to an unexposed one of Sir Michael Stoute's; her latest start and nursery debut came in class 4 company against males and she was out of the handicap. Xenon has been dropped 2lb to a mark of 62 and this drop to class 6 company looks more realsitic, though that said there look to be a few in here who might have been hiding their lights under a bushel or will be seen to better effect in nurseries / on the AW, but at a price, a chance is taken on Xenon. |