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PRICEWISE 59 losers in a row
PRICEWISE 59 losers in a row
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Anybody who reads Segal’s weekly column in the Weekender knows that the guy is a guesser. Every week he keeps coming up with drivel whose knowledge would not better any newbie to the sport.
He says he does not do speed figures or compile his own handicap and has never indicated time spent in the paddock. His race reading skills are no better than the average punter. He does not compute his own tissue. His only edge as such is he avoids overbet horses who may have gone up too much in the handicap. Hardly the basis for his huge following. You can forget any statistical analysis of his record. The simple fact is the man lacks expertise in any area. Follow him at your peril. |
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I think Duncan Idaho is spot on. Your stake on any bet must reflect how much value you think you are getting. If on any given bet you felt there was great value it would be a missed opportunity not to try and cash in . Contrary to a lot that's written there is no such the value - there's my value and your value - and by applying what we think in that regard we try to get ourselves in front . If you have what you consider a value bet - you must act in the knowledge that the where and when of your next value bet is uncertain
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The game is full of punters who have found a method that generates a level-stake profit. The only thing that keeps them losing is their wilful refusal actually to bet to level stakes.
On a separate note, recognizing the difference between a losing run that is a blip and one that signifies that your method is no longer working owing to changed circumstances is one of the hardest decisions a full-timer has to make. It's simply no good to assume that your method has been sound in the past and that the future and your betting bank will take care of themselves. Life changes and the game changes with it. |
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you can easily have a sound selection process that makes a reasonable roi% with pure level stakes, however yes you can make more money by staking according to your view of their value but your view of their value doesn't have to very far out for you to then lose money by staking according to that view.
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I recall reading that Tom does do his own speed ratings.
I also recall reading that the chap that does the racing post ratings(handicap) does not bet. (Steve Mason I think) |
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Staking should reflect the difficulty of the race and the horse you fancy. If you fancy a horse in a Maiden or a Stakes race you might make it a 6/4 shot - you therefore bet 40 Units. In a tough handicap you may make it a 4/1 shot. You therefore bet 20 Units and so on.
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Unless you make zero effort to shop around, most punters will be effectively betting to a marginally underround book these days. Bet to level stakes and you must have a reasonable chance of turning out a profit over a long enough period.
The fact that most don't is down to the throwaway tenner on the 20/1 winner in a race full of dangers being followed by an even monkey on the certainty which jettisons Ruby Walsh at the last. |
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surely by identiying so called value,[ personaly a very subjective subject ], the bigger the rick made by bookmakers [ ie the bigger the value in your opinion] the bigger the bet,whats the point in having the same size bet where you think the bookies made a small rick as compared to when you thinks he,s made a huge rick
in the old days was known as the bigger the odds the bigger the bet,the pro,s now alegedly put these odds down to someone knowing something they dont and instead of increasing their wager they leave well alone |
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Stow
Are you sure about the SF's? I cant recall a single occasion where he has said something like 'based on my speed figures I fancy... etc. I more than happy to defer if I am wrong. |
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over the last few months he,s thrown into write ups little snippets like , he,s giving up
working out the draw betting on the ground ,good horses go on most ground etc so he,s basicaly only backing horses that he thinks are chucked in,hence why lots of his tips are predicted well in advance on here |
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yes, there was a transcript in the post a no. of years ago of interviews with both of them. I probably have it tucked away somewhere
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Thanks Stow
I am much relieved !!! |
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% of the Bank is same as level stakes in my book. Let's say it's 2% and your bank is £1000. That's commencing stakes of £20 - to sustain a LLR of 50. If the Bank increase to £2000, your 2% now equates to stakes of £40 - still allowing a LLR of 50. The stakes increase when Bank does, they never decrease. So after a LR , when the winner arrives your re still on at the same stake.
Betting to ' value' is something I personally don't cater for. If my selection fits my kpi 's it's a bet, whether it's 3/1 or. 10/1. Although my priority of bets ( only H'caps) is with Class 1 - 3 races at Grade 1 courses. I will also be ( if rules fit) to a selection running in a Class 6 race at Pontefract. Over many years of keeping records, I have found that in the long run , it pays to bet where the criteria fits. I've looked at reducing bets and betting only in higher grade races. But over time bigger profits accrue by including lower grade races too. I know this approach wouldn't suit many on here, but by adhering rigidly to the 'system' it removes the 'emotiveness ' of choice, which often ( in my experience ) can lead you to either back the wrong horse, or have more or less money on. As I say, this won't find agreement, but it works for me. And as a result the last 9 years of betting, have produced very different results than the previous 30 !  |
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What if all your kpi's were met except the price facts. What is it was 11/4 instead of 3/1?
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if
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toms not well
taking him to doctors in morning its bad 2 nd itis please god he lives |
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your a bookmaker or bookies rep obviously,
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I'd have looked as early as possible when prices came up. Would wait if 11/4 was the best, to see if it drifted. Nearer the race time. If 11/4 was strong, I'd take it. But not any lower. Average price of winners over a year comes out around 6/1. So majority of bets are greater than 3/1.
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I was thinking you'd say if 11/4 you wouldn't take it. Was going to say, well you're catering for value subconsciously, but you never!
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ilikewavingatbuses
ilikewavingatbuses 31 Aug 15 11:22 Joined: 06 Jun 09 | Topic/replies: 29,374 | Blogger: ilikewavingatbuses's blog User McCoy Carp • August 29, 2015 7:12 PM BST A run like this is inevitable bearing in mind the price of the horses he selects but it doesn't make it any easier to stomach. He or The Racing Post should offer some insight and explaination as to why these losing runs happen as how you deal with them is THE most important thing in becoming a successful punter. Goodwood use to be my favourite place to bet at, then this year I went through 1 winner out of 80 selections and they wern't all big priced runners like Segal tips. I lost £7500 there including £3500 at the main meeting. I would never have thought a run like that was possible. One saving grace with me now is I don't chase, but it's taken me a long time to become disciplined in that way. I am constantly searching the net for help with these losing runs and at the moment have started reading "The Drunkards Walk" which Hugh taylor recommended - but it's quite hard work. It's the despair you feel, lack of info and people to talk to when you hit these runs. Don't assume he's near to tipping a winner. Look at that losing run Mark Jonhston went through over the winter, 100+ runners and no winner. One of the most incredible things to have ever happened in racing yet more or less ignored by the press. But then look at the summer he has had and how things have changed! Laugh What part of this do you find funny exactly? |
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m johnston turf 2011 -£244,45,
2012 -£ 63,25, 2013 -£278,13. 2014-£207,74. 2015+£ 42,44.  |
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Him and Hannon been my best source of profit this year.
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Facts I am not sure of you..
Keep profit records of course but what has something that happened ten years ago have to do with today... I cannot get on anymore with any firm (yawn) and so rarely bet apart from a scutch of triple the odds one winner guaranteed prices Lucky 15's on Saturdays and festivals in the shops.. The Seagull had the right approach... Access to the best prices, trainer in form,trainer notes in the rancid paper before it was published and complete access to the rp database.. But it is not happening for the lazy ba stard and he should put a bit more work into it.Times are changing |
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It's not profit records that happened 10 years ago It's reassurance that what happened 10 years ago, happened 9 years ago, 8 years ago, 7,6,5,4 etc, etc. I.e that the ' rules ' of selection choice,are as relevant today as they historically have been since they were first devised. hth.
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Not sure as I am yesterdays man as regards betting and the rules are changing all the time..
Lucky I banked enough and never went wild in my halcyon days... |
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McCoy Carp
31 Aug 15 17:39 ilikewavingatbuses ilikewavingatbuses 31 Aug 15 11:22 Joined: 06 Jun 09 | Topic/replies: 29,374 | Blogger: ilikewavingatbuses's blog User McCoy Carp • August 29, 2015 7:12 PM BST A run like this is inevitable bearing in mind the price of the horses he selects but it doesn't make it any easier to stomach. He or The Racing Post should offer some insight and explaination as to why these losing runs happen as how you deal with them is THE most important thing in becoming a successful punter. Goodwood use to be my favourite place to bet at, then this year I went through 1 winner out of 80 selections and they wern't all big priced runners like Segal tips. I lost £7500 there including £3500 at the main meeting. I would never have thought a run like that was possible. One saving grace with me now is I don't chase, but it's taken me a long time to become disciplined in that way. I am constantly searching the net for help with these losing runs and at the moment have started reading "The Drunkards Walk" which Hugh taylor recommended - but it's quite hard work. It's the despair you feel, lack of info and people to talk to when you hit these runs. Don't assume he's near to tipping a winner. Look at that losing run Mark Jonhston went through over the winter, 100+ runners and no winner. One of the most incredible things to have ever happened in racing yet more or less ignored by the press. But then look at the summer he has had and how things have changed! Laugh What part of this do you find funny exactly? You had 80 bets in 5 days 35 races so average of over 2 picks a race,yet you weren't chssing and expected to win,think it's pretty obvious why he was laughing... |
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thegiggilo -
I read it as 80 bets at ALL Goodwood meetings this year - Hence - Just 1 Winner giving, "a £7,500 loss," (at around £100 per bet) - - and a, "£3,500 at the main meeting," (at £100 per race). |
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^ * and a, "£3,500 LOSS at the main meeting,"
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Don't think it really make's that much difference even if he mean't that..
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The best tipster of the modern era once went around 70 selections without a winner...hey, sh*t happens!
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70 Or a 1000 losers makes little difference how good or bad results are unless you're betting them yourself and using your own money,it a million on any of these tipsters make a success of punting infact I wouldn't even be sure they even bet...
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How many tipsters are winning at sp or have ever won at sp over a large sample of bets over x amount of years,zilch..
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How many tipsters are winning at sp or have ever won at sp over a large sample of bets over x amount of years,zilch..
Given the effect Sir Tom and Sir Hugh have on the price, that is hardly relevant to judging their ability. Lesser known tipsters might, until their record becomes widely appreciated and then they too will shorten SP. |
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I've never been a winning punter, but this year, I decided to spend a lot of time at it, subscribe to a ratings system and record all my bets. I play in a lot of races and sometimes bet 2 or 3 in a race. Before I went on the losing run at Goodwood, my last winning bet there was King To Be, 2nd May, £120 @ 6.07 placed on here. I'm not going to recount them, but I think I had 63 consecutive losers there before Belvoir Bay scored for me at the main meeting, £80 @ 6/1 (888) then another 17 or so losers for me until Brittleton won on 28/8, £349.84 to £200 on here after commission, won 2/1.
I use a "variable" level stakes plan, with £250 on an even money shot (think I've probably had 2 of these all year, one won, one lost)£200 @ 5/4, £100 @ 2/1-3/1, £80, 7-2 - 7/1, £60 9/1,10/1, £50, 11/1-20/1, £40, 25/1, £30 33/1 etc. This isn't hard and fast, sometimes I will double my bet if I'm strong on one or put more on if the horse drifts. My 2 biggest bets this year were Osaila at Royal Ascot, which I came on here and told everyone about beforehand, £200 ew @ 14/1 and £100 win, just got up on the line to win @ 13/2 and Fields Of Athenry, same bet @ 11/1 which luckily for me, 365 & Coral paid 5 places. I've also had £500 win on Air Force Blue for the 2000 Guineas. My yearly figures are: Jan: £+3645.49 Feb: £-2396.25 March: £-1913.71 (inc: Cheltenham festival, lost £2509.52) April: £+7758.17 May: £-130.07 June: £+1767.96 July: £-1319.80 August: £+4604.49 For the average stakes I'm betting at I thought a £5000 bank would be enough, but it's not. Although the above figures don't show it, there's a period where I went from being £11000 up on the year, to less than £3000 up. SJ closed my account more or less straight away, Boyles have effectively done the same (when I try to place a bet it comes up, "a risk assessment has rejected your bet" or something like that) I'm restricted to "recreational" betting (whatever that means)with Betway, & limited stakes with most of the others apart from 365, BV, Coral, & 888 - the last two named, bets often get referred to traders but normally taken for my average stakes I want to get on. If you mainly play outside of the short priced range, which I do, then you are incredibly naive if you think that a losing run like Segals or my Goodwood run won't happen and how you get through them, is in my opinion the key to becoming a successful punter. Any other questions feel free to ask. |
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As I've stated before. The key to not letting the inevitable long losing run, is to have a sufficiently large enough Racing Bank. I bet level stakes ( a fixed % of the Bank). I personally would not subscribe to variable stakes. As to putting large amounts on short priced Favs. - road to ruin imo.
Good luck with your betting McCoy, you're obviously doing something right. Keep detailed records of type of bets, reasons for selection, race types etc. look for positive patterns, and weed out the negatives. Personally I think you're betting on too many horses in all sorts of different races. Be disciplined and selective. Good luck again |
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Mccoy Carp, that betting bank is way too small for those stakes. I would suggest your betting bank should be at least 5 times bigger to be betting those stakes.
Have a read of this website http://www.learnbetwin.com/betting-bank-and-bankroll-management/ |
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Well actually double the betting bank would be ok for your normal bets but the 200 e/w on 14/1 does seem a bit risky to me. Otherwise looks like you're doing ok.
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My stakes are 2% of my bank - a 50th.
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Yes that should be ok facts, all depends on what edge you have and strike rate. If you had say 20% winners at average odds 5/1 then that would be about right.
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Not far off Stevie, a tad better strike rate, and around a point higher average odds.
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