difficult to lay decent amount which raises a red flag

so the only way is to try to get horse a decent weight than back it accordingly

Manxy am I allowed to put another site up on here,tho I,m surprised that no one else has said anything as it,s a very popular site.If it,s ok I,ll put it up hope the guys ok with me doing it.

MullahOmar
28 Feb 13 11:00
Joined:  12 May 10 | Topic/replies: 359 | Blogger: MullahOmar's blog

The BF market is a far greater guide to a horses chance than any form book analysis, especially in the bottom 80% classes of racing.

Your form study may still yield tiny profits at the top end of racing the rest is a complete waste of time FACT.


Utter rubbish as if you don't research every single race at all levels which has to be done with a computer

you wont know what the results of form and betting on exchanges can yield in the form of profits

and I can tell you because I do take the great time to research this that lower grade racing is as profitable

and as fair as the higher grade racing but my friend the harder the races are to work out then the harder one has to try

to find the profit a very simple equation but profound and relevant to any sports betting.

i think people inc. MullahO leap to the conclusion that every market move on the AW is inside info/stable money....there's plenty of that around but there are also many other forces on the Betfair market these days and these markets are easily affected...form boys will move the market too if the bookies make a rick

"mixed messages" with the form today iyo

bf, having spent 6 yrs playing the fool on here, i now have to start posting sensible stuff to show i'm not a complete looser (sic) ...i fear the horse may have bolted tho.

bf looking forward to your chelt ratings each day

Will a rating star be born?

Form is ever changing , and the trickery and skullduggery is ever strengthening , i feel the form book is becoming pretty redundant tbh

off course good prize money and blue type will stregthen the case but 90% of the dross requires only a dart

Onlookers summary was pretty concise although mayhave looked condescending to someone who spends a few hours aday trying their best and still not making it pay,it is like he mentioned its a natural aptitude that 99% of punters will never have.Even at the lowest level on the aw the form is incredibly consistent for the ability of the horses running,when punters on here say they aren't machines i actually think they are as near as you will get.Form is incredibly accurate especially when you're looking for value as regards prices,there's no doubt the proliferation with all these meetings has taken loads of betting opportunities away with so much uncompetitive racing.But there are always opportunities in all sorts of racing whether its turf/aw/nh and there always will be for a small %,also punters who think betting in better class races think they will do better.The value will nearly always be in bread n' butter racing so you're talking handicaps day in day out with horses probably rated between 65-90 books make far bigger mistakes on those rated handicaps,at that point most races become less value and more competitive.
As for group races i rarely bet in them unless i've got 2yr olds that i've got clocking decent times and 3yr olds similar and i never bet in older horse group races and very rarely touch the bigger meetings with big handicaps.There are so many more races with bigger ricks in the lesser races.

xmoneyx
28 Feb 13 18:17
Joined:  12 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 7,606 | Blogger: xmoneyx's blog
bf looking forward to your chelt ratings each day

Will a rating star be born?

I will admit I am very temped to put up some ratings but I would have to spend a full week working on

converting my current formulations for the NH racing as I have altered everything completely to try and

get in the top ten of the AW contest of which I am bobbling around eitgh place currently.



I have given up the ghost with flat racing on considering more than 1 runner unless of course its a

bigger field and better odds which is what the NH at Chelts level would allow for.


I would like to push the boat out further and supply the best lays at the sub 8.0 price in races as

Cheltenham is a gold mine for layers...



I will attempt to study the top NH venues of the last 12 months worth of races and if all goes well based

on logical decisions and if the material is of possible value I will then consider some better informative

race cards with ratings for all runners in probable chance values and high lighted best lays and backs

but only if I know that I can produce a profit for members as I certainly don't want to lead folk down

the garden path and if I feel I cant make the grade I will shelve any attempt at providing ratings

for this most difficult of venues.

How many hours a day do you put in ?

I put quite a lot of hours in but never enough to get everything done as the task list

for the implementation of ratings and formulas can go as large as your imagination

but as small as your limitations in resources and time being the greatest constraint.

I actually view everything I have created so far as just a useful experiment into

the study of race prediction and the real work will probably take another 12 months

as the learning curve is a long and shallow one that never levels out in a matter of

short months.

Im not including you bf , building a spaceship and nuclear fusion cannot be counted in your time btw

thegiggilo comments to me look spot on and the plain fact is if you bet in a top flight race

it can be a closed shop for profit as take every race that Frankel raced in and you would

need to back Frankel big and no other "profit out" as even the place market for other runners was only ever playing

for 2nd and 3rd places for a third odds!

Bf you really need to stop this mate , it will cause an overload somewhere , and you may find yourelf leaving the house with an axe one night screaming "im not taking it anymore "

If you even have a passing acquaintance with the formbook, it should be
obvious what will start fav, and if you have a clue how to read a race,
you should have a likely price, all the posters on here telling us how
good they are, yet no one has stepped forward

ohyouknowdoya   

I will respond to you - as I have just returned to thread.

As giggilo pointed out earlier ... The best bets are NOT always in the Best Races.

As for stipulating one race, on Saturday, as your emotive challenge.

There are 41 different RACES on Saturday  - and I, like many others, will NOT be trying to 'turn a Profit' on the day - on just ONE race.

There are also, as you will acknowledge - 7 days in the week, and 52 weeks in the year ....

- and PATIENCE is a virtue, too.

There'e no emotive challenge ffs, just amusing reading all the implied experts,it's simple if you have a clue what
you are talking about, it should be transparent to you what will start fav, and the likely tissue price.
Nothing to do with best prices, if you can read form as you proclaim, it should be easy, pm me if you prefer.
Example if you have it a 3/1 shot, and books go 5s, well you got yourself some value

Hav'nt looked a sticks race for 6 years!