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How do the form book boys make it pay

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Replies: 209
By:
racingstar
When: 26 Feb 13 21:50
"I have

only scrapped the surface as I look forward to developing something top secret this year of which even

the nature of I do not wish to disclose".
ROFFL.
By:
lazarus2
When: 26 Feb 13 21:51
reading form is so boring and so last decade
By:
hello :-)
When: 26 Feb 13 21:53
like your humour fraudy
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 26 Feb 13 21:54
It was once thought that a computer could never match the human mind at problem solving tasks and for instance

the game of chess is a perfect example of a great task of problem solving as grand masters have been able to

beat computers at chess for some considerable time but this all changed when deep blue was created and though

Gary Kasparov beat deep blue the first time round, the second time he was so stretched and disappointed at his

failed attack plan that the computer then exploited, that he resigned from playing against deep blue for obvious reasonsWink
By:
Born Unlucky
When: 26 Feb 13 21:58

Feb 26, 2013 -- 9:51PM, lazarus2 wrote:


reading form is so boring and so last decade


What is the way forward iyo?Plain

By:
racingstar
When: 26 Feb 13 22:01
Unfortunately for you,BFF,you are not horse racing's version of Deep Bluue.
You are more like,shocking pink.
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 26 Feb 13 22:17
Wow, just placed cattericks races in the relevant form book and this is a classic example of

how a computer using accurate effective measurements can beat a human using its preffered method

of rating form, now I personally looked at the first winner at big odds and totally dismissed

it as a very poor horse, but the rating app has calculated that one of its last six runs is actually

the second best from line on offerShocked

    2:20 »     
    Winstone70    
    Cara Court56    
    Fred Bojangals109 p    
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 26 Feb 13 22:27
cara court was well in simply because I can calibrate stayers relative to running at greater distances than race distance

and make alterations to values relative to weight also of course and this runner had great range relative to these factors.

You may ask how do I know what weight and distance does to a runners mark, well the answer comes to you when you can look

at hundreds and thousands of races and you alter these factors relative to findings, I do look forward to letting

the computer do all this "calibration work" in the near future as I intend only to create the next generation of software

to do this and almost anything there after the computer will assert it self as important...
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 26 Feb 13 22:31
how much did you have on cara court?
By:
hello :-)
When: 26 Feb 13 22:33
Giggollo is the only man in the uk who can make it pay , he will be along shortly with his sunglasses on
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 26 Feb 13 22:48
racingstar
26 Feb 13 22:01
Joined:  22 Oct 08 | Topic/replies: 1,577 | Blogger: racingstar's blog
Unfortunately for you,BFF,you are not horse racing's version of Deep Bluue.
You are more like,shocking pink.


I have see enough interesting results to invest the hard hours to create the equivalent of Deep Blue

for horse race result prediction this year god willing...Love
By:
11kv
When: 26 Feb 13 22:49
By: manxy Date Joined: 09 Oct 10
Blogger: manxy's blog
Add contact | Send message When: 26 Feb 13 21:48 Joined: Date Joined: 09 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 7,190 | Blogger: manxy's blog
thats interesting bf, got anymore m8.



Mischief
By:
Studious_1
When: 26 Feb 13 22:54
Laugh lol at the lads with the 'FFS' comments - another thread where the mysterious ratings with more hijackings than on a Somalian trade route appear.

BF I've never once written a thing relating to your posts.  However this last rating you have made has got me curious.

One of the last 6 runs was rated as the 2nd best piece of form in the race?

I can't presume this was the run where the horse Unseated at the first fence.
Or the run where it was pulled up virtually at half way.
Can't be the run where it's beat 100Lengths+
Doubt it's either the run where it's beaten 48lengths at Limerick.

So it must be one of the horses two runs at mighty 'Cregg' in Ireland where it was beaten by just the length of a couple of cricket pitches rather than the proverbial football pitch....

However apparently your 'rating app' found reason to award it the 2nd highest rating on recent form.  There is nothing accurate about whatever measurement it used - it's something far more mystical and exponential that it's encoutered, called 'Luck'.

I'm sure many have said this already - I know you don't or haven't yet committed real money to any of your ratings - that's why you highlight their apparent virtues on here rather than via an uplift to your personal fortune - the advice is, retire while you're level and start again on something with more merit and variables that are far more quantifiable, leading to far more accurate findings and hence useful, you will probably find tennis or football far more agreeable than racing.

Good Luck.
By:
racingstar
When: 26 Feb 13 23:00
You pair of dipsticks will need more than "good luck".
Goodnight.
By:
manxy
When: 26 Feb 13 23:04
fank fuuk for that, a right gobshyte him
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 26 Feb 13 23:19
careful Studious1, bf's posse of sexually boxed after-race ratings will be after you firing abuse, like they did to me at the last hijacked thread...
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 26 Feb 13 23:22
careful Studious1, bf's posse of sexually boxed after-race ratings fans will be after you firing abuse, like they did to me at the last hijacked thread.....I've had a long day counting today's winnings. Real money, not monopoly money.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 26 Feb 13 23:23
Hayden Joined: 15 Jan 02
Replies: 7496 26 Feb 13 16:05   


Before you debate any further you need to come up with a definitive answer to " What is reading form and how do i put it into practice "

Every punter i've ever met has stated they read form but you could get the top 16 form readers in the country and ask them for a form selection in a 16 runner handicap and they'd come up with 8 or 9 different horses , it means different things to different people unfortunately.


Good luck today guys   


13/14 of them would be wrong and two or three would have the same pick and those 2/3 are consistently picking the same horses!Cool
By:
mepoor
When: 26 Feb 13 23:47
hi guys just some fun but looking at form and studying is along crueling task that wee all do, well most do i hope on forums.
but the easy way to look at form sticks out like the proverbial sore thumb and actually works to, to at least get a run for your money and its no master mind either, so here is four horses running tomorrow with form in the book current that should all run well and why.

bangor 3 20 herdsman  this horse is bang in form and is now handicapping is running better than ever, lightly raced for 8 he could get the treble.

wincanton 3 00 father probus  again a horse bang in form won then run good  race of this mark so hes bang in form and should go close.

wincanton 4 00 gizzet  this horse was running of higher marks but last four runs running of same mark and finally got head in front, and running of same mark again could double up.

lingfield 3 40 killimore cottage  again a horse bang in form since handicapping it and risen again but he just keeps improving and could get four timer quiet easily.

so ther form horses all who could win and there is a reason apart from that why i gave they four and not some others , thats for later.
By:
TiptheOdds
When: 27 Feb 13 00:04
I think your system is as good as any mepoor. Going for horses in proven form and potentially improving.

Also, I think I´m right in saying that there is statistical evidence (no, I´m not Willo) to suggest that last time out winners especially in handicaps tend to go off at better odds than their win ratio suggests they should.
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 00:05
Studious_1, All i am able to tell you is that in respect of how a human tries to evalute a form line

in a basic and fuzzy manner compared to a computer using formulations tested and adjusted over meg-chunks of data is like this.

"One mans poison is another computers meat"
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 00:06
and vice versa
By:
manxy
When: 27 Feb 13 00:07
thanks
By:
manxy
When: 27 Feb 13 00:08
always informative bf, dont let the trolls put you off.
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 00:14
Hi Manky, it is very difficult to get folk to understand how useful computers are at rating horses

and sites like horseracebase and others do indeed open up this wealth of data that points to profit.



They say that you can lead a horse to water... but the average punter uses a computer to do his shopping , watch porn

and message his fellow beings while never escaping the layers and mickey mouse markets grip, fact....
By:
Dr Gonzo
When: 27 Feb 13 00:20

The level I am at now is pretty high and my latest carnation results are quite good but I know I have only scrapped the surface as I look forward to developing something top secret this year of which even the nature of I do not wish to disclose.


You should scrap the lot, not just the surface YSDC Laugh
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 00:42
Dr Gonzo I have yet to hear any sign that you are capable of intelligent comments other than

a quick copy and paste, followed by a quick insult, followed by a round silly grinning face that I imagine

is quite accurateCool
By:
manxy
When: 27 Feb 13 00:46
ya m8 gandolf as bin missing awhile, looks like his mouth finlly hung him, or clicking report so many times, got him noticed.
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 00:50
I reported him for cyber bullying as he can be a very nasty person sometimes

and it hasnt gone un-noticed by many, good riddance I say.
By:
hello :-)
When: 27 Feb 13 00:53
hello :-)
26 Feb 13 22:33   

Giggollo is the only man in the uk who can make it pay , he will be along shortly with his sunglasses on



1.01 landed LaughCool
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 00:56
I dont mind the jokers and funny comments as I am pretty thick skinned and can see the funny side but getting constant

abuse and lies thrown at you and being bullied is wrong and thankfully social networks

are catching up with these folk that abuse the forum and other members.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 27 Feb 13 01:00
hello :-) Joined: 09 Sep 09
Replies: 8906 27 Feb 13 00:53   


hello :-)
26 Feb 13 22:33   

Giggollo is the only man in the uk who can make it pay , he will be along shortly with his sunglasses on



1.01 landedLaughCool

Form upheld again!!LoveShocked
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 01:02
lol, right on cue, nap landedWink
By:
manxy
When: 27 Feb 13 01:11
i couldnt click report bf, on anyone, but i dont things on the net seriously enough to get wound up
By:
genelec
When: 27 Feb 13 01:14
Gonzo Laugh I wonder if Garee's carnations are shocking pink too Confused
By:
ebulGery
When: 27 Feb 13 01:34
the thing is b/f..you do not bet do you
so you do not have to show a profit do you?

still, because you dont you may be the most sensible person on hereConfused

the rest of us have to wrestle with the emotional side of gambling

Happy when we win
Sad when we lose
By:
hello :-)
When: 27 Feb 13 01:41
Bf is unavailable , it takes time does perfection and this new solar system wont build itself


And you can be sure bf wont be resting on the sunday
By:
poorpup
When: 27 Feb 13 01:52
has martyn escaped again ?Shocked
By:
ebulGery
When: 27 Feb 13 02:17
Laugh hello
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 27 Feb 13 02:49
Yes Hello I study and evolve my work most days including Sundays.

I currently am working on research that can point to predicting as accurate a estimation of winning chance and even

the chance of a horse finishing in any position. Here is a test sample for Kempton, 80 races and quite enlightening...

    Rank        Ran        Win        SR%        W ret        place ret        AvBsp        Av Predicted Strike Rates   
    1        81        23        28.40        56.73        4.26        5.99        32   
    2        80        16        20.00        28.27        22.65        6.77        20   
    3        76        18        23.68        28.57        -13.29        5.81        13   
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