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~ FLAT JOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIP 2012 ~ who wins iyo?
~ FLAT JOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIP 2012 ~ who wins iyo?
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His stats wouldn't put me off. Only 23, improved immeasurably over the winter and there's been a massive change in the landscape re the jocks jobs.
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I'm not as convinced as some that Hanagan's and De Souza's winners will drop too significantly just because of their new jobs. It might dictate which meetings they go to but they will both still pick up plenty of outside rides by going there and De Souza will more often than not be on the ones at the alternative meetings so can still pick up the kind of lower level rides he was previously getting anyway.
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if hughes cant win it this year he will never win it..he could take 6 weeks holiday and still win it..
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For my money,Hughes gets too many bans.S de S to win it.
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right, now Cheltenham has finished the real stuff is just around the corner.
you have all had long enough to finalise who is going to win and as no aftertimers are allowed lets stick up our fancies for posterity BEFORE the start of the season, Two picks each WINNER: BEST OUTSIDER: go........... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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WINNER: K FALLON
BEST OUTSIDER: N CALLAN for moi | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cant fancy Fallon at any price,was surposed to be going all out the last 2 years and couldnt win it,was only 2 behind at one stage last season and ended up 3rd 20 winners behind Hanagan.
Think Hughes is a good thing to win his first title if the pending ban is not reciprocated by the BHA,if it is I think Moore wont have to put himself out too much to win it back again,would almost certainly have won it last year but for his injury at Goodwood. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fanning or Crowley.
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Best outsider Adam Kirby.
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kirby............top jock, wrong crowd.
fallon tom eaves | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Don't know, but Luke Morris will win it in 2013!
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good shout blackbarn
stick up 2 for 2012... too I will put you up first on the 2013 spreadsheet! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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De Souza, Dettori, Barzelona no chance as they will be tied to Godolphin and they done give a monkeys until June.
Moore is effectively Coolmore number 1 so no chance. Hughes too heavy and hannon due a bad year Fallons to lose and I dont think he will. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What is the thinking behind "Hannon due a bad year"? Assuming you put some thought into it before posting!
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herblington
17 Mar 12 23:06 Joined: 01 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 575 | Blogger: herblington's blog De Souza, Dettori, Barzelona no chance as they will be tied to Godolphin and they done give a monkeys until June. Moore is effectively Coolmore number 1 so no chance. Hughes too heavy and hannon due a bad year Fallons to lose and I dont think he will. This notion that Hughes is too heavy is absolute rubbish,for the last 3 years he has ridden at 8st6lbs,and Hannon has a massive string this season,its a two horse race imo between Hughes and Moore. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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right
love luke morris but cant quite see it on the turf WINNER not sure OUTSIDER callan and james doyle | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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VFAN - put someone up as a win - me spreadsheet dont do - not sure
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Hughes for me, and young Luke for the outsider. Just a question of when he gets that decent job. Re not sure on turf - won a Gp 1 or does french turf not count!!
Sorry to bore those of you who have heard this story before!!. First saw Luke practising whip pull thru's on the ironhorse in the Newmarket Racing Museum on Ces day in 2005. Got him to sign my cigarette packet (long time ago!). He was practising who whole time we were in the museum (well over an hour!) went back and he was still practising his whip action. Another visitor to the museum gave me a tip for his horse that afternoon - Rod Millman! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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go on then james doyle for a laugh (more than good enough doubt he will get rides)
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De Souza for me. Think he`ll get plenty of outside rides,he`s good,young and hungry.
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Hanagan in a walkover.
Its not even close. Now with the Sheik´s army behind him, he is sure to be at all the top meetings north and south. And will be riding in every race at every meeting. Will have rides from every trainer in the country including Tregoning, Both Dunlops, C. Hills, Gosden, Fahey, Ryan, and Stoute. Basically every trainer in the land bar Hannon. As i said.... A walkover. Bonk | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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bonk 18 Mar 12 14:10
Hanagan in a walkover. Its not even close. Now with the Sheik´s army behind him, he is sure to be at all the top meetings north and south. And will be riding in every race at every meeting. Will have rides from every trainer in the country including Tregoning, Both Dunlops, C. Hills, Gosden, Fahey, Ryan, and Stoute. Basically every trainer in the land bar Hannon. As i said.... A walkover. Bonk Nice big fat retainer, quality not quantity, time to spend with wife and young kids, all reasons why Hanagan won't be riding in every race at every meeting. As for the trainers listed, Tregoning  Hanagan had more winners than he had runners last year. Both Dunlops (John and Harry  ) has he ever rode for them? C.Hills ditto, Gosden I believe has a stable jockey, Fahey ok but as first jock to Hamdan he's going to be riding mainly the Southern tracks so apart from the big Northern meets probably not that many rides, Ryan...see Gosden and Fahey, and Stoute has stable jockey and a very poor year by his standards to recover from. So until the season starts and you can see where and how often Hanagan is riding you couldn't back him with counterfeit   | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lets continue this conversation the last week in October.
Don´t ever think that a retainer will stop Hanagan´s Hunger. I´ve backed him the last 4 years for the championship. Did you . Collected twice at huge prices. As well as making a +43.00 euro profit on selected rides. Did you Tony McCoy has a retainer much larger and that has never stopped him from pursuing championship after championship. With all your cleverness, your obviously not someone who has ever taken part in sporting events. Otherwise you would know that it ain´t "all about the money, money".  It´s pride, self confidence, adrenaline, and hunger to be the best. Create a legacy...if you will. Well....I know you won´t, but here´s to trying!!!! As i said. A walkover. Bonk | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fallon to win because he is probably still the best and most trainers know it.
Frankie to Retire because he definitely is not the best anymore and Godolphin know that. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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fanning to win the championship, incase anyone hasnt realised....he has all of the johnson rides.....de sousa wont have that many godolphin rides .....hanagan wont have the best season replacing hills ..........ryan moore has no intention of riding everyday to win the title so he has no chance!
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Fanning doesnt have all of the Johnson rides. Hanagan will be riding some!
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I am a big Hanagan fan - 7s available and seems good value, but a saver on Fanning at 16s or 20s as well. Cant have anybody else for reasons others have given. Something to think about is for the last few years one of the favourites has suffered an injury spoiling their chances.
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Calm down Bonk its only my opinion. I've topped a thread on Antepost for you.
You say Hanagan won't be affected by the retainer, he'll still be slogging his guts out for 6 rides at Wolverhampton on a wet Saturday night after 6 rides at Newmarket. I say I wouldn't want to put money on that until he actually goes and does it. You say he wants to create a legacy, well he's a two time champ so no-one can say it was a fluke. And as for your assumptions about me, well you couldn't be wider off the mark if you tried. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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P.s. 7/1 is not a huge price, 40's and 66's big prices yes, 7's not so, HTH
Be lucky | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Re Hanagan - Here are some stats and guesses.
He will have at most 400 rides for Hamdan in the 2012 Flat Season, and have possibly as many as 70 winners. If the RP numbers are correct, Dickie was 56 from 368 last season (virtually all for Hamdan). PH had 478 rides for Fahey last year yielding 77 winners so similar win ratio and but hundred more rides(on worse horses?!) Differences will be that PH's win ratio will probably be higher than Hills's; the Sheikh may have a better season next after last years worst since the early 90's; and the big one, will PH have the will, freedom and opportunity to take over 700 outside rides (yielding 100 winners) as he did last season. All very interesting!! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Meant to add, Hanagan WILL BE riding for Hannon - Hamdan has sent him 10 2yo's (8 colts and 2 fillies) - Only one of these is home bred (Nayef x Natagora!!!!!), the others cost a total of over £2m. Six are named and registered to run and five of these already have race entries.
There's another 20 wins for PH  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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That would be an interesting market.
How many rides will Paul Hanagan have during the 2012 Flat season? I'd probably be a seller at 1,000-1,050 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nirnaeth Arnoediad
so taking in all of the above.. ur winner/best outsider is.. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Last seasons totals.
Jockey Min Weight Wins Rides Strike Rate Level Stake Win Prize Total Prize Paul Hanagan 7-12 165 1133 15% 311.50 £871,365 £1,508,066 Silvestre De Sousa 7-12 161 1001 16% 136.45 £752,016 £1,217,930 Kieren Fallon 8-6 145 901 16% 137.84 £1,002,218 £1,851,084 Richard Hughes 8-6 130 713 18% +29.71 £1,771,219 £2,652,063 William Buick 8-3 100 582 17% 16.53 £1,824,040 £2,481,138 Jamie Spencer 8-5 100 603 17% 88.77 £1,062,239 £1,753,142 Ryan Moore 8-7 94 504 19% 143.71 £1,032,097 £2,598,952 Tom Queally 8-6 91 656 14% 131.68 £1,851,001 £2,531,472 Neil Callan 8-6 78 655 12% 107.13 £546,439 £976,292 Tom Eaves 8-6 74 784 9% 187.83 £282,488 £470,011 Frankie Dettori 8-8 72 367 20% 7.39 £1,684,110 £2,231,104 Phillip Makin 8-6 71 588 12% 173.22 £582,033 £774,504 Robert Winston 8-5 69 526 13% +28.33 £361,740 £528,941 Adam Kirby 8-10 69 531 13% 9.66 £325,765 £572,466 Seb Sanders 8-8 69 551 13% 149.52 £293,631 £478,636 Jim Crowley 8-6 67 614 11% 101.46 £428,595 £693,062 Luke Morris 7-13 62 804 8% 357.14 £218,919 £440,904 Dane O'Neill 8-6 61 598 10% 193.33 £265,281 £558,260 Martin Harley 8-3 58 439 13% +9.29 £149,473 £243,910 Joe Fanning 8-2 57 371 15% +101.61 £295,664 £420,357 Ted Durcan 8-6 57 458 12% 107.46 £360,576 £576,999 Hayley Turner 8-2 56 367 15% +31.19 £701,298 £830,661 Frederik Tylicki 8-6 56 516 11% 11.13 £266,676 £381,758 Cathy Gannon 7-12 56 610 9% 219.26 £157,625 £318,202 Richard Hills 8-6 55 364 15% 139.72 £313,757 £833,878 Graham Gibbons 8-5 55 518 11% 93.28 £256,133 £427,954 P J McDonald 8-4 55 521 11% 93.65 £181,932 £284,309 George Baker 8-13 54 428 13% +59.04 £311,810 £546,738 James Doyle 8-7 53 493 11% 48.32 £148,037 £225,356 Jimmy Fortune 8-7 53 525 10% 93.46 £558,129 £923,627 Kieran O'Neill 7-7 51 397 13% 28.66 £153,194 £258,588 David Allan 8-6 50 495 10% 129.64 £282,967 £520,817 Martin Dwyer 8-4 49 471 10% 118.30 £305,205 £504,745 Eddie Ahern 8-6 48 442 11% 81.70 £527,048 £750,571 Harry Bentley 7-9 47 379 12% +44.78 £199,937 £286,801 Pat Dobbs 8-7 46 302 15% +14.51 £236,180 £340,996 David Probert 7-12 45 426 11% 127.68 £315,880 £486,876 Richard Kingscote 8-3 44 373 12% 11.98 £223,771 £329,323 Steve Drowne 8-6 43 453 9% +45.13 £252,083 £588,024 Daniel Tudhope 8-9 42 363 12% 52.25 £286,811 £460,178 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... Provided by: Racingpost | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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a low winning year tho FrankRA and also so much merry go round since
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Kieren Fallon - hopefully and purely to prove a point. Luke Morris to prove another sometime thereafter - plenty of time for that one though.
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