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Good luck with Balgarry WC, Robsters put it up as well!
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2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap
At a very big price I quite fancy the chances of Nigel Twiston-Davies Petitflour whose form figures maybe a little hit and miss but looks very much overpriced with the return to these conditions and looks laid out for this handicap today. William Twiston_Davies comes in for the ridewith old brother Sam taking the ride on stablemate Kayf Armis who was well held of levels with Restless Harry Latest. PetitFour use to be involved in those kind of races and it was oly back at the Hennessy meeting when he went well behind Big Bucks at Newbury in which he helped force the issue before fading towards the end of the race, with the pace angle at Cheltenham being a strong pointer in the racing this week and Buena Vista likely to give a bold sighter from the front maybe this time to set the race up for Our Father, I feel Petitfour can track the leader and get first run here today. The horse has been dropped a further 2lbs in the handicap for a prep run at Warwick in which he lumped top weight around under Sam Twiston-Davies and just weakened out of it before the home run in, Withe the 7lbs claim he carries just 145lbs today whch will see him a stone better off at the weights with thehillofuinsch & 10lbs with Barwell Bridge. The large field a bonus for this 10yo and he has solid course form to his name and with improving conditions to his liking I feel his chance is better then the large prices on offer. Selection - PetitFour 1pt e/w @ 50-1 (SJ) 59-1 win & 9-1place on betfair |
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2.40 Ryanair Chase Grade 1 21F
Most probably the most competitive grade 1 race of the entire festival with no less then 9 grade 1 winners involved in the race and Albertas Run will be looking to land thi race for the 3rd time today. However even though the ground is likley to be very much in his favor once again he is a year older and in a 3 runner affair in which we last saw him, he made vry heavy work of seeing off Pure Faith as his main rival Master Minded ran well below what he is capable off, so maybe that race isnt the best to judge him on. I feel his win over Kalahari king 12 months ago will see its form turned on its head this time around with not the 2nd but the 3rd Rubi Light looking like a improved opponent as he has reached 7yo now, the latest win in ireland was impressive and he is certainly likely to go well with a strong pace to give him a lead with thanks to little josh. Riverside Theatre is another who comes here in good form having beaten Medermt in the VC chase latest and if he want such a progressive horse right handed I would most probably take him to confirm the form, but im not sure if this track pays to his strength and it will be no surprise to see Medermit around this track reverse the form. Medermit was favourite for last year's Arkle in which he was beaten by Captain Chris having no be able to muster the pace to land a blow, however the two horses have had contrasting 12 months and Medermit ran well at this track when a close 2nd in a handicap of 157. he has once again improved along comparison with the Alan King Yard and comes out on top on my ratings to land this today. Somersby is another who has a chance and was joint 2nd with Riverside Theatre as he is another who is better at Ascot. I do feel if this was ran at Ascot then both Somersby and Riverside Theatre would fight out the finish, but as its at cheltenham I do believe Medermit has the engine to reverse the form and at 8-1 is my bet for this. Selection - Medermit 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (SJ) |
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3.20 Cheltenham - World Hurdle Grade 1
The feature race on day 3 of the festival and Paul Nichols will be looking to land yet another feature race with the champion stayer Big Bucks who has seen off all before him and is a short price to do so yet again today, however Nicky Henderson who has had a festival to remember so far will be looking to land the 2nd feature race of the week after finian’s Rainbow victory yesterday in the champion chase. The horse has yet to run over 3M but given the way he has gone so far this season he looks to get strong in his races and has genuine turn of foot that could worry big bucks who just gallops them into the ground, until the last race that Big bucks ran I was convinced he was on his way down from his lofty perch and could be beaten this year, however the last run he put together at this track was as good as I’ve seen him and he looked back to his best after maybe looking a little bit suspect before hand, that day he had Dynaste beaten in 2nd as the Pipe yard adopted new tactics to try and reverse the form and it didn’t quite pay off, what actually happened was that Big Bucks got a even better response that day and won with a bit in hand, last year Big Bucks only won by a few lengths after Ruby Dropped his whip but he was expected to win that day with ease, I feel that the inclusion of Oscar Whisky into the mix may just give Big Bucks more to think about as he has a rival in the race who has as much class as him and his 4 performances so far over 20F have been all quite fetching. If Oscar Whisky doesn’t beat him today I feel at Aintree it will be the case as I see him the one to lower big bucks colors. Dynaste I feel is the e/w horse in the race. Selection – Oscar Whisky 1pt win @ 9-2 (365) 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap (Grade 3) 21F Race that a big price usually springs a surprise in and this year’s it looks as open as any. Crack Away Jack looks to have a good chance given how he has been laid out for this race by Champion Trainer Paul Nichols and was staying on well when making a mistake at a vital moment over 16F at this track. The step up in trip should see him go well and he is a few pounds better then that form he showed and is respected. However at a big price I like two in this handicap and the first one is Tartak for his new handler Tim Vaughan who I feel is worth a cheeky punt on at a massive 66-1. This horse is classy on his day and has the ground perfect today underfoot to carry the large weight burden on his shoulders. The booking of Richard Johnson should be seen as a positive as maybe a forceful ride is what the horse needs, he has bags of ability and the change of stable may just do the trick and get him to return to form here in which he would be well handicapped given he was running in the ryanair just 12 months ago and wasn’t disgraced behind master minded at Aintree the following race, 66-1 price is very big for a horse that if he was to perform would not be the most shocked winner of this handicap. The other horse is Gilbarry for Jonjo O’Neil as he was quite a smart horse when landing a grade 2 novice event at Ayr and now finds himself running of 137 in handicaps after showing very little throughout the season, however he has often shown his best form during the spring and on ground such as this and has a touch of class about him, he also should adopt a more positive running style today given how the ground has raced so far at this festival, he is a horse that is best when allowed to run freely and off this mark they hopefully will allow him more rein to run free and has a chance I feel. Selection – Tartak 1pt e/w @ 66-1 (VC) & Gilbarry 1pt e/w @ 33-1 (365) |
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3 Races at cheltenham and hopefully a chance to turn around the poor form.
2.05 County Hurdle Grade 3 handicap As per usual a race that is as tough as they come and one that could even see Dee ee Willias bounce back to form as on his old form from way back in April 2010 he would hve to be considered as a bet but he showed very little on his return to suggest it was anytime near in the offering. The other rank outsider hell's bay has got ability but has been seen over fences in which he has lost his way and this is most probably a spin around to get some form back in but on his best chase form he would be well treated over hurdles. The likes of StarLuck and Clerk's Choice are likely to go well with solid graded form to their names and the former returned against binocular last time at Wincanton and was given a tender ride, while the latter was pulled out Fontwell National Spirit hurdle last time and has been kept fresh with this in mind. Novice hurdle ifyouletmefinish looks the best of those stepping into handicap company today and is respected, Whilie the Irish raiders Dirar & Sailors Warm are likely to run their usual race and hope to bring some joy to the irish who have had a terriable festival in term of winners so far. However the two I like against the field are firstly the well fancied RAYA STAR who ran with much credit in the betfair hurdle behind the champion hurdler fast dinisher Zarakander and looks a tough customer that is needed for these types of races and Paul Nichols Edgardo Sol who can be forgiven the last run at Taunton as the stable was under cloud and should give a much better account of himself here today. The son of kapgarde often runs well at this track and the yard often do well in this event. The run behind Bally legend here in december was a decent performance on the book and he has a ideal low racing weight once the claimmer 7lbs is taken of the back of the horse and at a bst priced 33-1 he has a decent chance I feel. Selections - Raya Star 1pt win @ 11-1 (general) & Edgardo Sol 1pt win @ 33-1 (General) |
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3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup Grade 1
The blue ribbon event of the meeting and one that sees one again the match up of kauto Star versus Long Run who will be looking to reverse the form this time around after Kauto Star landed the betfair chase and the King George this season and Long Run finished 2nd, the confidence boosting win at newbury has him covering Burton port who was having his first run for over a year and was in the recipet of weight that day as Long Run had to carry his penalty for winning this race last year. I Feel with the problematic prep of Kauto star, coupled in with the fact he isnt as good around cheltenham as he is at kempton, it should be Long Run reversing the form in a race that really has thse two as the standout two. Burton Port could be the improver but I feel he needs quite a bit of improvement to land this event today and maybe the 8yo will be better in 12 months time as Long Run starts to regress as 8yo french bred that can be quite often the case with these types that peak at a young age. What A friend is likely to go well today under Daryl Jacob and can take the 3rd spot just ahead of Burton port who beaten him last time at newbury but once again I felt What a friend was a little bit lacklustered in the finish and will have come on for that run. Weird Al, Synchonised, Midnight Chase and time for rupert are the next best in that order. Selection - Long Run 3pt win @ 2-1 |
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5.15 Grand Annual Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Nicky Henderson has had a festival to remember and to win this handicap at the end of the meeting if he has landed the cheltenham gold cup for the 2nd season would be a dream come true for him and he has set out his stool to win this today with 6 runners in the field and his Tanks for that has solid handicapping form around here that would put him right in the mixing pot under Bary Gerghaty for this and the 9yo is lightly raced enough to record a personal best and land this, however his stable mate Erdicate really catches the eye in this handicap as this novice on hurdles form has a very solid chance as he has a bit of pace about him that would stand him in good stead on this quick spring ground, David bass takes the ride today and he gets in nearing the bottom of the weights which counts for a lot in a handicap as fast and furious as this one. Astracad won well here in a small field event and has been laid out for this race by the owners who won this a few years back and he is lightly raced to do himself justice and looks to be the best handicapped horse in the race with much in his favor. Ultimate is consistent and won the other day at Doncaster in which a few fences were bypassed due tolow sunset and he is in form and should run a honest race at a bigger price, whilie Nina Carberry has a chance on Idarah who starts to come to hand around this time of the year. Oiuseu Du Nuit should run his usual race around here and has place claims, whilie Free World once with Paul Nichols has some very decent form in the book if you look far enough back to have a say but that is quite unlikley. Kumbeshwar, king Edmund & Renard all have ran well this season and could run a respectable race, however I will give Eradicate & Astracad a go in this handicap. Selection - Astracad 1pt win @ 10-1 (General) & Erdicate 1pt win @ 14-1 (General) |
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happy gold cup day chief - think midnight might sneek a place and if the race falls apart as it dose - could even win it,obviously long run will probably hose up,but if outsiders are every going to win it ,this years seems a weak one.big price worth an e.w
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Good Luck Well Chief just dodging in to see how your fairing...I like Astracad myself, but will just be watching the GC, I do think with the current form of the stable Long Run is the one they all have to beat, and don't necessarily think it will be the duel everyone is expecting.
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given up or taking a break ?
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2.40 Newbury
Dom D’Orgeval – Course regular in his twilight years but has the ability to go well at this level having fallen to his winning mark over fences of 119. On his day is very talented and is well in on his best hurdling form which he has shown to that level over fences in his career even though he has often found one too good, a stiffer test of stamina in terms of trips maybe would have been more to his liking, but the spring ground and drop too this level in which he is 2 wins & 3 placed efforts from 8 running’s is good enough to believe he is overpriced for this even with the doubts over recent form. 1pt @ 33-1 Sound Stage – 2 recent runs at Sandown has suggested that he is ready to strike again after really catching the eye last time out and James Best has ridden him well on both those occasions. The drying spring ground is ideal for this horse who has become a bit hard to win with as he has only 2 wins to his name at 9yo, however his form at Newbury suggest he is likely to build on the recent encouraging signs and there has been money for him this morning as I got some 6-1 last night. 1pt @ 6-1 4.25 Newbury Gibb River – Nicky Henderson can continue his recent flux of winners with Gibb River who can be forgiven his no show at Ascot last time. The better conditions underfoot should also suit this gelding who has had time off to freshen up in which he does need time between his racing, the lack of real competitive in this handicap should suit him and he has a turn of foot that should see off those that are more like stayer’s such as stable mate Petit Robin, Topolski and Kandari who all would prefer a stiffer test in my view. 1pt win @ 9-2 Tony Star – Another that has a good chance today is Philip Hobbs Tony Star who hasn’t been seen since flopping at Cheltenham in which he didn’t give his true running, the 100+ day absence from the course could well have done him some good and he looks visibly handicapped in my view to give a good account of himself. The run behind Dinuer at Wincanton the time before isn’t terrible and he should be well suited to this small field run affair today. The last time he ran at this track he ran into a horse well below his actual mark in Empire Levant, This time around he looks to have found himself a fair test in terms of opponents and can take advantage if Gibb River was too under perform. 1pt win @ 12-1 4.10 Lingfield Haadeeth – Won a few weeks back when the money was down over course and distance and that was quite a catching performance I felt. Today paired with the same jockey up top I feel he can go well once again. The last run wasn’t his true running, but he should get his favored inside rail from draw box 1 and go close off a mark 3lbs higher than his highest all weather winning mark. The yard is going well at the moment and in a trappy affair he should run well again and has every chance of confirming running with Hatta Stream I feel. 1pt win @ 8-1 Kyalladdie – Jamie Spencer gets on well with this gelding that is talented on his day and maybe better then all these in the race today. Hopefully he will be putting his best foot forward with a liking for polly track. His form around Lingfield isn’t sparkling in terms of wins at the track, but he has run with credit at this venue in the past. The sharp six should be right up his street and Jamie Spencer should negotiate the wide draw I feel to give him every chance, he was just my pick over Baby Strange as one of the selections. 1pt win @ 5-1 Back from a break after cheltenham Current p/l +15.76pts |
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Got to be a mistake with a win only on Dommy ?
Few E/W would have kept you ticking over WC Banging on the door again ![]() |
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Yeah Madhatters Im loving a close 2nd at the moment.
3.50 Bangor Railway Dillion 138 French Ties 137 Wake Board 136 Restern D'Armour 136 Premier Sagas 135 Calistio Moon 129 Railway Dilion at 5-1 looks the play as he looks a progressive type who will apperciate the drop back in trip today with 22 Furlongs last time out stretching his stamina, the quicker conditions couldowever be a problem for the McCain yard who are in good form at the moment. French Ties is another who looks handicapped to go well today based on the win last time at Newbury and has more in his favour, However Wake Board was subject of a lot of support last time out and should be more suited to the trip today and has been supported over night, He had conditions to suit and a big run under Daryl Jacob is expected. Selection - French Ties 1pt @ 5/1 & Wake Board 1pt @ 3/1 3.30 Kelso Freddie Brown 139 Time out 133 Indian Groom 132 Shadrack 130 Mr Syntax 130 Captain Paulie 126 Bene Lad 135 Freddie Brown is clear choice inthis small field handicap and has quite a bit in his favor over his rivals today and should take all the beating, the next best is Time out who has progressed well so far this season but the weight he has to concede to Freddie Brown is quite significant and he can follow the clear choice home I feel. Selection - Freddie Brown 2pt win @ 5/2 3.40 Newbury Mon Parrin 161 Pearlysteps 159 Ouzbeck 158 Ikordu Road 156 Swimcombe Rock 155 On Burrowed Wings 152 Quotico Du Poyens 152 Benny be Good 149 Faasel 146 Ethopia 141 Mon Parrin has the class to win this on his way to Aintree and should take all the beating, however Pearlysteps has the ability to land one of these and his two runs at haydock suggest he shouldn't be discounnted lightly, however his stable seem to be struggling for form at the moment and both those runs were on testing gruelling conditions at Haydock so maybe he could be below his best. Ikordu Road has a lot in his favor and comes here of the back of a good win at doncaster and should go well again here with the track likely to play to his strengths. Ouzbeck has everything to run upto form today and shaped with promised behind Maurfo jere last time at 7/1 he is taken to find the 3lbs needed to beat the favourite. Selection - Ouzbeck 1pt e/w @ 7-1 3.25 Lingfield Soorah - 126 Black Spirit - 126 Myplacelater - 122 Cai Shen - 121 Circumvent - 119 Junoob - 116 Suits Me - 116 Loyalty - 115 Lyssio - 114 Emerald Wilderness - 112 Sooraah needs to prove she stays the trip but this is quite a sharp 10 furlongs so there is every chance that she will stay the trip, whether she will stay it well enough is to be seen bu with Ryan Moore booked for the ride she could well be hard to beat if she does, however Black Spirit has proven stamina and if he acts on polly track he will be a major player in this and at 10/1 to find out it looks worth a play. The mare myplacelater starts for new stable and is interesting as she could improve for the change of handling now she is with a top yard of Richard Fahey he does well with Mares in the past. Cai Shen for the Richard Hannon yard should go well n a open event with plenty of questons to be answered and my two against the field are black Spirit & myplacelater who both have the stamina and ability to win this race. Selection - Black Spirit 1pt win @ 10/1 & Myplacelater 1pt win @ 11/1 |
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Best of luck today Well Chief.
You've hit the bar a few times lately. |
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Got one over the line WC
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3.55 Wincanton Class 3 handicap Hurdle
A 130+ Performance is required to land this handicap hurdle today and six of the runners are able to record a effort of that or better, so its quite a competitive affair today and with 3 places up for grabs maybe the best bet is to go each-way or dutch two runners. Perpetually - Has two quailifing runs and could well be better then his current mark as he is unexposed with only 3 runs over hurdles for a six year old so there could be more to come from the horse. The lesser of his two runs which would have him as winning this was over 16 furlongs at Haydock under similiar ground conditions as today and the only factor that was the same that day was the ground, but he did travel like he was by far the best horse in the race before idling in front over the last in which he held on to make it two from two over hurdles, the next run was much better even though he didnt win as he ran with credit over 21F at Cheltenham with ground maybe not as quick as he liked and his stamina dropped out over the last furlong, that effort was by far the form pick in this race and the drop back a furlong suggest coupled with quicker ground and a easier test of stamina on a flatter galloping track should see him go well and it will be disspointing if he doesnt at least place in this today. Minella Special - Has ran twice here to a level that would have him figuring in this handicap today if he was to prove to be s good over the further trip today as they were over 16 furlongs in more testing conditions, on breeding this trip and ground should prove sufficent for the horse and he should run up to form, the concern has to be the 3 runs over this trip have been average to say the least as they have come on better ground and unless his new trainer has found the key to the horse he is passed over for a stronger staying type. Themilanhorse - Has one runs to his credit that has him a a likely winner of this race and once again with those who have passed its the most recent of runs suggesting that he is improving and could go well in this handicap today after the Ludlow race he won had a few nice types in behind and he was ridden out to win that a tad easily and the 5lbs rise should not be a problem to overcome as he is improving. There is a lot of factors similiar to this race as to the one he won and the shorter trip in comparison to the win at Ludow shouldnt be a problem and everything is in place for a big run. Santera - Comes into this handicap as a horse who has lost her way slightly but is very talented, her performance at kempton behind Caroles Legacy is superb form in the context of this handicap and that was over a longer trip, she has never really ran to that level since or before and she peaked there, she also has good form when winning here over 22F on rattling ground the time before and that is another performance that would have her involved in this handicap at the weights as well so at a double figure price she has claims, the most recent run at sandown suggested a return to form is on the cards as that was the best run since 2010 and she has has claims in this, but she may just find one or two just too quick in the finishing kick and her best hope over this trip and this level is if they make it a strong staying test. She has each-way claims. J'Adhere - The run back two runs where he finished behind a 100-1 shot was his pick of form and he just gets in as recording a effort capable of winning this event, there however needs to find out that he performs as goos over this further trip as the 16 furlongs he won over and there has been some signs that the further trip will suit him as he won over 20 furlongs but the opposition was below this level so maybe a minor role is best bet for him. Revani - Handicap debutant is interesting, Te latest run over 20 furlongs was a let down in soft ground behind the useful cotton mill who was running well at cheltenham before refusing at a hurdle and the run prior to that Revani recorded a fair effort in which he wasnt a factor for the race but stayed on readily that day over 16 furlongs behind the useful broad back bob, cinders and ashes and Ted Spread and that was his only attempt on better racing ground which he encounters today, he should come on from those novice events now he takes on handicap company in which he has a fairly judged mark by the handicapper and the Nick Williams yard are starting to take shape and a winner could well be on the cards for him today. On breeding he is worth another crack at this trip with the better ground and trainer does well at this track. Verdict - Open race in which the top weighted Perpetually is likely to go well with the easier stamina test and no surprise to see him favourite for this handicap today, themilanhorse deserves respect and is a close 2nd in the market and while both have a decent chance in this race, the biggest fly in the otiment is the lightly weighted and raced Revani who is best priced 4-1 and a bet to nothing even though he has prove he stays which the suggestion is he will. J'Adhere has unexposed types against him, while Sandera is the more classy rival of the two and has stamina on her side and could be the each-way play for those who are prepared to take the chance that this will turn into a true run affair.My selection is Revani on handicap debut each-way. Selection - REVANI 1pt e/w @ 4-1 Best of luck all |
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4.30 Towcester Handicap Hurdle class 4
Required performance to win this handicap is 122+ I feel and just five of today’s runners are capable of achieving that rating to win this handicap in which General Ting whose form has come over a mile shorter is a non-runner so that just leaves four qualifiers to go through in what is now a hard 8 race. Chac du Cadron – Has 3 qualifying runs already in his short career to take this and no surprise to see him at the head of the market with the likely hood that there is more to come, each of the runs have come with many factors relating to today’s race and all have been within the circumference of the stamina needed to win under today’s conditions. The best of those runs was of course the most latest in which he finished 3rd in a competitive affair at Doncaster behind Allthekinghorses and Corkage who has since franked the form of that race. The way he stayed that day suggest that the change to this more challenging of courses. The first two of his runs was under more testing conditions at Uttoexter and Southwell which his stamina came into play under those conditions in easier fields then his ability to win and the stronger field coupled with better conditions suggested last time that he would once again run well, he will need this more tougher test of stamina in a muddling affair to run up to his best and he is likely to take all the besting with very little against him. Counting House – Formally very decent but hard to know just what of that ability is still retained as he has been very hit and miss since returning from a absence. The run at Newbury last spring however has him as qualifying as a potential winner in this handicap and he is the biggest danger to the favorite on ability. The run at Newbury was a returning run in which Jason Maguire rode him to victory and the same jockey appears on top today at a track he has a good strike rate on. The last run at Cheltenham was in a much better race then this and he has been given time since to overcome that run in which he never factored in and was disappointing. His record fresh is respectable while the yard has a good record in handicap hurdles at this track and the ground shouldn’t be a problem for the horse having won on spring ground in the past and handled going also with firm in the description. Father Probus – has come into form at the right time and his last run gives him a chance in this handicap under the eye catching booking of Timmy Murphy. A more proven type then the favorite it’s hard seeing him have enough improvement to beat the favorite in this handicap today and he will be hoping that Timmy can give him a tactical ride to victory. The ground does suit and the trip shouldn’t be a problem. The run at Taunton last time he finished in front of Teenage Kicks under Paddy Brennen and the reuniting with Timmy Murphy today could well confirm that form as the time before he won under Timmy guidance. The better ground is preference to this horse and if his stamina lasts out on this stiffer track he may just confirm the form of latest run at Taunton. Teenage Kicks – has actually two runs that show he has the ability to win at this level and the first one of those was over two furlongs shorter then this around Fontwell in a novice hurdle on good ground and he is most probably best judged on the latter performance in which he won at Worcester over 3M on rattling ground, he is getting ready to get some prize money throughout the summer months again and comes here of the back of a fair effort at Taunton behind Father Probus, That suggested to me that he is coming to hand and can once again go well in handicap company today, He is very closely matched with Father Probus on latest running and even though he is 3lbs better off at the weights he could struggle to reverse it here, even though he has won on his only start at this track sometime ago. Verdict – The two top weighted horse are very much likely to take the beating in this handicap with Chac Du Cadron clearly going the right way, however Counting House looks to be very much laid out for this handicap today with tougher targets lying in wait for the horse given past tasks set for the horse and this being a class race that they returned to the winners enclosure with under Jason Maguire last time. Of his 13 runs, 11 have been in better class races then this and his record right handed reads as one win and two placed efforts from five runs, Granted he is now 9yo and maybe his best hurdling days are behind him but he has the class to shake up the strong fav and with very little strength or depth in the race he is the each-way alternative at 4-1 as a bet to nothing. Teenage kicks and Father Probus can fight out the tri-cast. Selection – Counting House 2pt e/w @ 4-1 |
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Counting House is now 3-1 general, sorry I didnt get it up earlier been having right problems with internet, some have got even bigger then 4-1 on this turning into a gamble.
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4.30 Southwell 14F class 3 Handicap
The race today the winner should be able to run to a ability of above 95 and there are six horses in this handicap that have produced a performance good enough to win this handicap, however most of them over further or shorter then today's trip. The quailifiers are as follows :- Boss's Destination - Is very well handicapped on turf form for his fibresand debut and the Alan Swimbank yard are currently in good form at the moment so there is everychance that he will be fit to run his race today despite his 0-3 record when fresh, however his best perfrmances have come over 2M in heavy ground at Thirsk and 2M at York in a competitive affair behind bow to no One. The run at Ayr behind Taikoo can be forgiven as that was not his running, betteris expected and on breeding the fibresand should be to his liking. Captain Bellamy - Unlike Boss's Destintion has very little to prove as he seeks his fifth win on Fibresand and comes here fit and well from a winter of success on this surface. The most recent win was a personal best under Jimmy Fortune and that was over 2M around here, the drop back in trip shouldnt be a problem as he is often placed just off the pace so if he is good enough he should have a chance to win this. However this is much tougher then he has been contesting and even though he recieves weight alround he does need to find more improvement which he is entitled too do so. Robert Winston is the latest jockey to be paired with this horse and he has a good record with the trainer so there is hope that he can bring up the hatrick and a fifth straight win on this track. Marsh Warbler - Classy hurdler on his day and wasnt beaten that far by Celestrial Halo over hurdles earlier in the season so he comes back to the level in good form despite being outclassed at Kelso latest behind Simonsig. He has won on this surface when seen in october and was a comfortable winner that day, the further trip should play to his strengths and Brian Elison has a strong record at Southwell with a 20% record in all age handicaps. Big Chance on the book I feel despite the 7lbs rise in the weights. Bedouin Bay - Quite a hard horse to figure out as he has form in the book that would suggest that he is more then capble at this level, however he is quite hard to win with a little one paced. He does stay this trip despite shaping well over 12 furlongs, but he wasnt beaen that far over 14 furlongs behind Adimirable Duque at Wolverhampton who he meets on better terms this time around, however he was easily beaten last time over 12F against the same rival and Im struggling to see him reversing the finishing places. Admirable Duque - looking to make it 3-3 at this venue and the last win was quite catching how he has progressed on this surface beating a useful yard stick who he meets again today and should confirm the form again, the change in jockey is positive one as young Egan is well worth his 7lbs claim and this horse can only lose on merrit today with him in the saddle. Takioo - Finished behind Benioun Bay at this track over 2M in a bumper latest and has to concede weight to that rival over a shorter trip today, he is a stayer through out and will be relying on a stronger pace as his best performace came at Ayr over 17F in the mud in which he had boss's Destination tailed off in behind, if this turns into a stout staying event he will have a good chance, but the likely hood is he will be outpaced when they kick for home off the turn for home. Course specialist but they have come at a lower level around here, this is tougher. Verdict - Plenty of decent types in this handicap today and Boss's Destination at the weights could have a big say if fit and ready to go but there is likely to be better chances when up in trip on this surface before returning to turf. Admirable Duque is likely to go close in this handicap and should be thereabouts despite the 7lbs rise in the weights. Bedouin Bay and Captain Bellamy also have claims, but for me the winner is likely to be Marsh Warbler who is a grade 1 hurdle winner who won on his last start at this track in decent style and will apperciate this tougher test of stamina. Selection - Marsh Warbler 2pt e/w @ 9/2 VC Best of luck all |
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8.15 Kempton - Street Power 1pt win @ 9-2 (billy's & PP)
The 3rd to Dandy Nichols Thunderball off a mark of 82 has him well in at the weights for this all weather handicap as that rival has gone on since to win again. Since that run Last March Street Power has been kept to the all weather in which he dropped 10lbs in the handicap in which he then came with a sustained run down the outside over course and distance to win going away in a class 5 handicap and showed a return to form. His form in the first half of the year outweighs his form latter on in the year and the quick turnout for a horse quite lightly raced in recent years suggest there is still more to come from the horse who is 6lbs higher but still 10lbs lower then his highest all weather winning mark. A bold show is predicted again here tonight and even though there is a unexposed Hamden horse looking to bring up the hatrick and a unexposed horse from he Gosdon yard, I feel Street Power can build on last weeks win and go in again. |
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Neat layout WC, but little punctuation ...?
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4.30 FFOS LASS Class 3 handicap Hurdle - Mountianous @ 7-1 Boils
Nigel twiston-Davies Gelding by Milan catches the eye for this handicap hurdle today as he is a regular atthis track having had five runs under rules and four have come at this track and he has progressed nicely at this venue through out the winter and the likely hood is that there is more to come from the horse who was a winner over 2M here and then followed it up well when doing it the hard way and making all in heavy conditions to beat Rimini here back in Jan of this year and the form of the race he won has a patch look to it but you can only beat what you are up against and he did it nicely enough. The stable have found their feet again and his one run away from this track at Ascot was a hot race in which Smad Place who ran well off top weight went well in the world hurdle at Cheltenham just 2 weeks ago and the form of that race is sure to stack up well with several runners from that handicap running well at Cheltenham next time out against some smart and inform rivals. This return to his home track should suit him massivly and the quicker ground being a unproven quantity just means the price is bigger then you would have expected for a horse with a unexposed solid profile against quite a few exposed types. He is well worth another crack at it today and he makes appeal at the price for me to turn my poor form around. 4.50 Newcastle Class 3 handicap Chase - Beneficial Reform 5/2 VC Billys Beneficial Reform picked up a easy novice event latest at Doncaster a track in which he does his best running at in his short career, however the return to handicap company with that win under his belt means that he is now 18lbs higher in the handicap then when he was last successful in handicap company at Doncaster back in November last year. Since that handicap win he jumped many ragged at Doncaster over a extended trip of 26 Furlongs in which he was fighting all the way to the line but was beaten by a Hennessy Gold Cup runner up Air Force One that day who refound his form and was subject of much support, this stiffer test of a track over 3M based on that form shouldnt be a problem for the horse seeing out the trip once again in a small field. The run at Kelso he fell far too early to give any running and he regained the lead last time out to gain a confidence boosting novice win in which the runner up cant really be judged on his run in the midlands national which he never jumped and travelled in as he was held up under restraint to get te trip. Beneficial Reform is going the right way and I feel he can just get the better of Fabalu of Donald McCain. Mr Crystal has claims from the foot of the weights if he stays the trip. Will Have a 1pt Double on the pair as well. Best of luck all |
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3.15 Doncaster - Lincoln (Heritage Handicap)
Races quailifed for finding the winner 16th April 2011 - Newbury 1st Light from Mars 2nd Pintura 3rd Lowther 6th Brae Hill This victory for Light from Mars was recorded when with Dandy Nichols and he now finds himself running for yet another handicap mastero John Quinn who has saddled winners in this race in the past and Light from Mars held on all out to win this day from Pintura who is owned by the same owner and Light from Mars finds himself better off at the weights today which suggest with a straight mile very much in his favor he has the chance to confirm the placing under similiar conditions. Lowther finds himself 1lb better in at the weights today with Light from Mars for 1/2L defeat this day and the same applies to Brae Hill who continues the strong hand in today's handicap for the owner. The more recent runs for both Lowther & Light from mars suggest that Light from mars is more likely to find his best form then the former who is having his first run since tailing of behind African Story in Meydan. Pintura has a eye catching jockey booking in Jimmy Fortune based on this meeting in whch he had laura Pike and a 5lbs claim and Jimmy could well bridge the weight reciept and on the owner colours looks the first choice, however for me Light from Mars is still capable and has slipped to attractive mark of 95 for this and he is best caught early in the season. 6th May 2011 Chester 2nd Pintura 3rd Lowther Pintura just failed on these sharper 8 furlong and was being caught by Lowther who hung left on the tght turn and maybe was the better horse out of the two. the 9lbs Lowther was conceeding this day didnt really come into play as the tight track does help weight carrying performances in comparison to the stiffer and more galloping track, howver for today's match up Lowther if returning to form should very much benefit for the change in weights despite the apparent improvement Pintura had shown throughout the season as a 4yo and while there is a angle to suggest that he can conceed the weight today to Lowther I feel if Dandy Nichols can get Lowther back into form then he has a very good chance today but he has got to trap much better then he has so far in Meydan as he continues his bad form from the Alan Bailey yard. 2nd April - Doncaster 2nd Brae Hill 7th Lowther 8th Light From Mars Last years run had Brae Hill coming out on top of those who reappear in this race and Brae Hill finds himself worse of at the weights based on this run. However Light From Mars can be forgiven as he finished 3rd of 11 on quite possiablly the slower side of the draw, while Lowther didnt have a clear run at a vital time and was always battling to make up the ground, it is also worth noting that this run wouldnt have come in either of these two top 4 runs in the last 12 months which suggest to me that both can be forgiven the defeat to the Fahey runner who has to overcome a 100+ day absence like he did last year to be placed so should be ready once again to go at the first time of asking, he does have course form as one of his best efforts and could well confirm these placings, but Light from Mars who was having his first outing last season and is at his best once race fit (one win fresh at lower level) I feel can reverse this run. Sandown 2nd July 2nd Start Right 6th Man of Action 16th Light from Mars The godolphin pair lined up in this handicap in which Start Right whilst in trainning with Luca Cumani came out on top and now in the royal blue of Godolphin he looks to be the 2nd string against that same rival on the colours. This day they had Light from Mars well beaten off who rapidly fell away and this was not that rivals running as he would had found sandown not fully to his liking as he will today and the fact he is better off at the weights today it is interesting to see just how it pans out here. Godolphin dont usually have horses in early season handicaps and these two both are capable performers on their day. Start Right is better off at the weights and was well in command of his new stablemate this day and has the first time visor on today which is another eye catcher, Dane O'Neil gets the leg up on Start Right and he is 5-18 for the trainer which is decent in all accounts. Man of Action may have improved more then his new inmate having been more lightly raced and he has course form that I will elude to soon, But judging on the purchase, the visor, the jockey booking and the weight advantage from this day I feel Start Right can comfirm the form, both have returned from runs in Meydan. 10th Sept Doncaster 1st Man Of Action 2nd Eton Forever 7th Mia's Boy A smaller field affair the today's Course handicap and Man OF Action was a very impressive winner this day and won with a shade of ease from today's antepost Favourite Eton Forever with Mia's Boy back in 7th never really involved in the race. The weights today have Eton Forever carrying 1lb less and Man of Action carrying 5lbs more then this day, while Mia's Boy has to carry 2lbs more in the handicap and more of less has little chance of reversing this running on those terms and what he showed that day even though he has shown better form since and all his best recent form from the past year having come on the polly track then turf, he is best passed over. Man of Action has a returning profile from overseas while Eton Forever who was a impressive winner at this meeting 12 months ago should be ready at the first time of asking. In terms of improvement Eton Forever I feel needs to find some as Man Of Action who is 5lbs worse was a comfortable winner, but the stronger pace could well see him reverse the form as it will enhance his chances more then Man of Action I feel. 2nd Apr Doncaster 1st Eton Forever 6th Smarty Socks 9th Pintura Eton Forever enjoyed the strong pace on the spring cup at this meeting last year and really left the field tolling in his wake including Smarty Socks who was in his group and left him very one paced even though that rival wasnt the quickest over the first 3rd of the race and may have used up quite a bit of petrol just to get back into the mix. Pintura finished 3rd in his group on the wrong side in which justonefortheroad was the highest finisher in 4th place in this handicap so maybe his performance could have been rated a couple of lbs higher up. Both Eton Forever and Smarty Socks are better weigthed with Pintura and all 3 progressed last season. Based on this run Eton Forever looked in a different level to his rivals and Smarty Socks could well be rated better then this run, however he is high in the weigts now and he progressed over 7F leading more to why he was so comperhensivly beaten when dwelling in this race 12 months ago and always battling his stamina issues. 15th June Ascot 5th Eton Forever 6th StartRight 12th Pintura 24th Brae Hill Brae Hill can be discounted from thi piece of form as he raced in a group of 2 with a outsider and was never a factor in this handicap in which all the pace was with the main group and Eton Forever came out on top of the other two who meet today, Pintura was well beaten off with maybe the tougher mile then newbury & york in which he keeps to his best run with chester was the cause but he is all wrong with both of his other rivals at the weights today based on thi effort but better is expected at doncaster today. On this occassion Eton Forever was always holding Start Right entering into the last furlong and the New Godolphin inmate put up his worse performance of the year in this race so there is a chance he can reverse the form with this track liekly to be more to his liking and the headgear going on for his first UK run for the trainer and even he is 3lbs worse off at the weights for 3/4L defeat, the Cumani horse progressed after this run while Eton Forever was already well on his way for the season in terms of improvement. Verdict - Eton Forever has the course form to land this and it has been the target for the horse and there i every reason to believe he will reverse the form with Man Of Action on their running here last season, However the Godolphin 2nd strong Start Right is likey to go well and can be forgiven his effort at Epsom and Ascot last season as he started to come to hand after that in terms of growing into himself as a 4yo and made steady improvement in the latter stages of the season, he has the visor on today and that could well just help this horse out. Light from Mars should take a close hand in this handicap and has the form in the book to go well, he should be thereabouts having been prepeed for this run and with Lowther looking like he needs to learn how to trap again he looks the best of the more exposed runners in this handicap. The pace angle in the race I believe the high numbers will have it will Light from Mars gettting a toe along from CoCozza who will use his extra stamina to try and stretch it from the front. Start Right is kindly placed among those drawn high and should be nicely plced 4 off the rail. Selections - LIGHT FROM MARS 1pt @ 20-1 VC & START RIGHT 1pt win @ 12-1 General Best of luck all |