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We have a few of these types of threads now and they a re a credit to the forum and I will post mine each-day as well rather then clogging up the forum with my bets. My bets for today are below with my stakes and hopefully I will make a profit long term if not from the outset. Please feel free to leave any comments on the races Im playing and hopefully I can follow in the footsteps of the robster, seeyou something and Liddelwise who are having much success.
Best of luck all
Portfolio of bets
3.35 Leicester – novice chase
The Selection in this race He’s Our Lad under Miss Rachel Green for the inform Anthony Hollyball yard who have been making the frame with regular occurrence in the last few weeks and their runner here can go well in a race where on form he looks to have around 9lbs in hand over his rivals. The right handed track of Leicester should be ideal for this horse that has 2 wins and 5 place efforts to its name in 12 runs so is mightily consistent. The Taunton run last time has him as reversing the form with Alpha Way and with conditions improving underfoot he should go close with spring ground perfect for him and at a price of 5/2 he rates as a decent bet today.
He’s Our Lad 3pts win @ 5-2
2.40 Musselbrugh – Novice Handicap Chase
Bally Macduff is the selection in this novice handicap at an each-way price and that may come as a surprise to many as he was comprehensively beaten by Red Tanber over course and distance on his last run, however that rival has gone up in the weights by a considerable amount and Bally Macduff has been eased, it was the Charlton horse first run over fences for some time and was once 2nd here in a novice chase race of level weights over 3M, however he is as effective over 20F as the 24F he contested back some time ago as he displayed when 2nd over CD over hurdles time before last and the yard are starting to show some signs of form with the stable star running well in defeat against simonsig yesterday. Bally Macduff is worth ago e/w at a price at 10/1and he can shake up Red Tanber who looks a major player in this.
Bally Macduff 1pt e/w @ 10-1
3.45 Musslebugh – Handicap Hurdle
Simply Ned & Don’t pay the ferryman are going the right way at the moment, whilst Red Jade is a unexposed rival, these 3 do look like they may make up the first 3 home unless Beidh the Annusso can bounce back to form on this better ground having shaped with promise last time out over this course and distance when 3rd to Don’t Pay The Ferryman, the swing in the weights coupled with the better racing conditions should bridge the gap between the two, plus it is wise to note the flying form of the Lucinda Russell yard at the moment after they hit a hat-rick at Ayr the other day. Don’t Pay the Ferryman is likely to be hard to beat, but he did have a hard race at the weekend when up in the firing line all the way in a ultra competitive handicap hurdle here, he did stay on well and is certainly on top of his game, he should go close but when I can make a case for Beidh the Annusso and he is nearly 3 times the price I think it is wise to give it ago.
Beidh the Annusso 1pt e/w @ 10-1
3.55 Southwell – 6F Claimer
This looks like it should well fall easily in the lap of Ishiamiracle in my view, She finally won a race at the 11 time of asking and hasn’t since gone on like you would have expected her to have as she has always had a ability, today she sets a fairly decent standard for this race with her only win coming over 5F at this track, this might be a furlong further but given the way she won that day she should be much more then capable of beating these over 6F today, Faraway is the biggest danger but Ishiamiracle has much to much in hand over that rival if on a going day. 2/1 to find out I think is a fair price given that she should be too good for these inferior rivals at today’s weights.
Ishiamiracle 2pt win @ 2-1
7.45 Kempton – 2M Handicap
The Mark Johnston yard has a strong hand with the Mare winning last time and is the choice of Joe Fanning who I would imagine did have a say in which horse he would ride on first look but then again I wouldn’t be put off by Adam Kirby being booked for the ride around Kempton on Stable mate Exemplary who looks to be well handicapped for this tonight given his rivals performances over 2M and is only not favourite in my view due to the fact he ran over a inadequate trip last time when beaten 7L by Layline over 12F a couple of Saturday back. If you look back to the 2M effort he posted 12 months ago he is the best horse in the race at the weights today with Bennelong a threat if proving too stays this far. Dark Ranger is likely to give him the most to do after 2 good efforts over CD recently, but I will take Mark Johnston 2 string on jockey bookings to win this at around 11/2 e/w
Exemplary 2pt e/w @ 11/2.
Best of luck all
Best of luck all
Portfolio of bets
3.35 Leicester – novice chase
The Selection in this race He’s Our Lad under Miss Rachel Green for the inform Anthony Hollyball yard who have been making the frame with regular occurrence in the last few weeks and their runner here can go well in a race where on form he looks to have around 9lbs in hand over his rivals. The right handed track of Leicester should be ideal for this horse that has 2 wins and 5 place efforts to its name in 12 runs so is mightily consistent. The Taunton run last time has him as reversing the form with Alpha Way and with conditions improving underfoot he should go close with spring ground perfect for him and at a price of 5/2 he rates as a decent bet today.
He’s Our Lad 3pts win @ 5-2
2.40 Musselbrugh – Novice Handicap Chase
Bally Macduff is the selection in this novice handicap at an each-way price and that may come as a surprise to many as he was comprehensively beaten by Red Tanber over course and distance on his last run, however that rival has gone up in the weights by a considerable amount and Bally Macduff has been eased, it was the Charlton horse first run over fences for some time and was once 2nd here in a novice chase race of level weights over 3M, however he is as effective over 20F as the 24F he contested back some time ago as he displayed when 2nd over CD over hurdles time before last and the yard are starting to show some signs of form with the stable star running well in defeat against simonsig yesterday. Bally Macduff is worth ago e/w at a price at 10/1and he can shake up Red Tanber who looks a major player in this.
Bally Macduff 1pt e/w @ 10-1
3.45 Musslebugh – Handicap Hurdle
Simply Ned & Don’t pay the ferryman are going the right way at the moment, whilst Red Jade is a unexposed rival, these 3 do look like they may make up the first 3 home unless Beidh the Annusso can bounce back to form on this better ground having shaped with promise last time out over this course and distance when 3rd to Don’t Pay The Ferryman, the swing in the weights coupled with the better racing conditions should bridge the gap between the two, plus it is wise to note the flying form of the Lucinda Russell yard at the moment after they hit a hat-rick at Ayr the other day. Don’t Pay the Ferryman is likely to be hard to beat, but he did have a hard race at the weekend when up in the firing line all the way in a ultra competitive handicap hurdle here, he did stay on well and is certainly on top of his game, he should go close but when I can make a case for Beidh the Annusso and he is nearly 3 times the price I think it is wise to give it ago.
Beidh the Annusso 1pt e/w @ 10-1
3.55 Southwell – 6F Claimer
This looks like it should well fall easily in the lap of Ishiamiracle in my view, She finally won a race at the 11 time of asking and hasn’t since gone on like you would have expected her to have as she has always had a ability, today she sets a fairly decent standard for this race with her only win coming over 5F at this track, this might be a furlong further but given the way she won that day she should be much more then capable of beating these over 6F today, Faraway is the biggest danger but Ishiamiracle has much to much in hand over that rival if on a going day. 2/1 to find out I think is a fair price given that she should be too good for these inferior rivals at today’s weights.
Ishiamiracle 2pt win @ 2-1
7.45 Kempton – 2M Handicap
The Mark Johnston yard has a strong hand with the Mare winning last time and is the choice of Joe Fanning who I would imagine did have a say in which horse he would ride on first look but then again I wouldn’t be put off by Adam Kirby being booked for the ride around Kempton on Stable mate Exemplary who looks to be well handicapped for this tonight given his rivals performances over 2M and is only not favourite in my view due to the fact he ran over a inadequate trip last time when beaten 7L by Layline over 12F a couple of Saturday back. If you look back to the 2M effort he posted 12 months ago he is the best horse in the race at the weights today with Bennelong a threat if proving too stays this far. Dark Ranger is likely to give him the most to do after 2 good efforts over CD recently, but I will take Mark Johnston 2 string on jockey bookings to win this at around 11/2 e/w
Exemplary 2pt e/w @ 11/2.
Best of luck all
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Exemplary A decent winner for me tonight, thanks maybe by a poor ride on the runner-up, even though I think the ride by Kirby was very good. Don't paythe ferryman done me no favours y holding off my selection, Maybe Red Tamber should have been my selection but it was worth ago. The Novice chase I got horriablly wrong on my ratings, never easier these novice chases and the claimmer I think the horse just is one of those not to entirly trust. Anyway onwards and upwards hopefully.
P/L +8.25pts |
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wd wc keep it going.
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Thanks S & C
Friday's Cards I will start with the rearrange meeting of Newbury as I have a couple of fancies for tomorrow, the other cards I will put up once I have gone through them in the morning. 12.40 Denman Chase A race for the dual Hennessy Winner and Paul Nichols I would imagine would quite like to win this race and its strange that they didnt decide to go to war with Kauto Star who pitted his wits against Denman but I can only imagine that they are quitely confident that What a Friend or Tidal bay can come good in this and If I was to pick one of those it would be What a friend for this even though th jockey booking would have you thinking the other way around, but Daryl Jacob rides What a Friend as I would imagine it will be his ride in the Gold Cup or even Grand National as Ruby obtained elsewhere so I wouldnt be jumping of Tidal bay as What A Friend is the biggest danger. However this is LONG RUN day as he has no Kauto against him and with What A Friend the biggest danger in my eyes to him he has it all covered to win in good fashion, Failure to win this and Kauto Star will be odds on for the Gold Cup, The Giant Bolster for me isnt good enough and all the others are held on form including Burton Port who makes his return since runner up in the hennessy to diamond Harry back in 2010. Long Run 4pts win @ 4/7 13.15 Betfair Hurlde Third Intention is my pick in a wide open handicap and yes the form of the yard is some concern with no winners in a month but its not like they all have run without any conviction. There is plenty of unexposed types in this handicap with many making handicap debuts such as Zarkander, But The Tizzard's have plotted this horse for today with a top weight carrying performance at Taunton last time in which only the novice Ranjaan could beat him recieving weight and to be fair the weight told that day, he comes here without that penalty on his back and should be spot on for today in which the lightly raced Zarkander is very well weighte with him on the truimph running, I think Third Intention has come on from his novice days and the same cant yet be said about Zarkander and If I was rate the race on what they have shown on formlines then Zarkander comes out 5th best at the weights, however he has improvement still likely and a champion hurdle entry, the other returning horse Solantino could give my selection more to think about off 148, but Third Intention carrying 10 stone 6lbs looks like he could really go well here and at the price with unknown improvement on the favourite he is my fancy for the race. Third Intention 1pt e/w 16-1 2.25 handicap Hurdle Stow should go well in thi for the Venetia Williams yard and was going to be my selection, however I really do think the staying division could be a decent division this year for the novices on wat I have seen and Emma Lavelle Gullinbursti is very much likely to take a lot of beating in this having ran into a top novice and a fancy of mine for the Neptune next month Rocky Creek at Doncaster. He proved last month at Doncaster that he stays the trip well and should have enough for a novice to win off 134 I feel. Noel Fehilly is a top booking for the yard (17-72) and is a bonus over the ok Jack Doyle, so I would imagine more assistance from the saddle will help this horse. Gullinbusti 1pt win @ 10-3 Best of luck all |
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3.05 Fakenham – handicap Chase
I was all set to give Temple Lord ago on his next run after going in the eye catcher book for his ascot run where he was set to go close, I’m certain this horse is well handicapped but the 3M even round Fakenham I’m having some concerns about him getting home so I will put off backing him until he is ran over 20 Furlongs (festival winner maybe if he gets in at the weights). The selection in this race is the top weighted OGEE who is better than this level and looks back handicapped to go well, The first day handicap at the festival could once again be the placement for this horse after going close 2yrs ago, he is nicely handicapped of a mark of 130 and a win here should see him in at the weights next month. OGEE 2pts e/w @ 8/1 2.10 Sandown – handicap chase Another top weighted chaser has a decent chance on return to the track after nearly a year off and that is beat the boys who can deny Alan King’s Midnight Appeal here. The horse has often done well around here and finished 2nd to course specialist the late Eric Charm’s here 12 months ago, he often goes well around here and is best caught fresh and I feel he can take this after being dropped 5lbs in the handicap since the last time we saw him on track. Against him both Upham Atom & Midnight appeal are dangers with the latter the preferred as his conqueror last time Fruit O’Rooney has gone well again since. If Loch Ba proves he stays then he could have a say as well. Beat the boy’s 1pt e/w @ 16-1 2.50 Lingfield 13F Handicap Kishanda should go well under Hayley Turner today, however I think the race will pan out nicely for El Liberator too follow up the success last time over 12F, this extra furlong I feel should suit as he will stay further and improve for the more emphasis on stamina rather than speed. The change in jockey is a slight negative as Jimmy Fortune strength was underlined last time, but I don’t think it will be required with el Liberator being on a winning mark and back in form over a trip that should suit. El Liberator 1pt e/w @ 9-2 6.15 Wolverhampton 12F Handicap Small runner affair in which quite a few of these will be trying to make the running and the unexposed queen of Denmark should this time sit and wait to pounce under Joe Fanning, I think she is the best horse in the race that is open to more improvement to come and she should win this tonight on route to better things and that is reflected in the price. However if Boa and Pertemps Network really pour it on I could well see the 9yo Accumulate swoop late to win this under Adam Kirby. However this looks like Queen of Denmark to lose and she is taken too come out on top. Queen of Denmark 2pts win @ 4-5 6.45 Wolverhampton 12F Handicap Another 12F handicap on the card and one for much slower tricky types and it sometimes pays to stick with a horse that knows how to win or has at least won a race and Imperial Fong went well behind Celtic Charlie at Lingfield last time and has also ran with credit here over the winter, tonight looks like they have found a chance to add a handicap to the seller she won back in September at Warwick and the yard are in good form at the moment. This is a poor race in which only 7 wins have been recorded between 12 of them in a combined 237 runs so small stakes advised. Imperial Fong 1pt e/w @ 15-2 |
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Long Run & El Libarator winners on the day, a return on Ogee as well in the placemarket, little bit agrived by Beat the boys who ran no race and Third Intention was well held but slightly below par, Zarakander has trainned on and Midnight Appeal was a missed bet
 The evening bets were poor, Brunston was a easy winner and Imperial Fong the jock lost his position down the back straight on the rail and then didnt have any horse to get himself out of the hole, stayed on up the home straight but was allways never on terms so maybe next time at lingfield in a similiar type of race. Gullimbursti was a gallent 2nd. Return today +1.5pts Overall +9.75 |
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Very impressive post,Well done.
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WD Well Chief
top write up, as per norm! |
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Busy day ahead of me with several races I like.
2.25 Ascot Handicap Chase This looks a trappy handicap with a few question marks to be answered and the Novices could well go well but it looks a handicap for the more hardened campaginers to come out on top so I have passed Penny max over which could come back to bite me if he continues he continues to improve as he is sixth best but not far off the top on my calculations. Pearlysteps looks like he has a race in him and choose Haydock over Ascot last time and this time comes here, the claimer is back on top so there is every hope he will go well as his wins have come right handed, against him there are a couple that keep bugging me, first one is Massini Maguire who would only have to reporduce run over C&D here in 2010 to land this when with the Hobbs yard, but the first run for the Pipe yard was a shocker even if the ground may have been against him and the yard have just seem to have lost their edge this week back from the freeze, the other is exmoor ranger who won the same race as Massini Maguire but in 2011, he is most probably a few pounds lighter in comparison to that rivals run but it was more recent and he stuck on ok last time at Sandown against a well handicapped rival, the last one is Cappa Bleu who didnt run to badly in the welsh National, he came back well from a lay off at newbury and could be the one if in the same mood. I think the winner will come from these 4 and I just think Exmoor Ranger could be the one as he loves it around here and goes well around here and Pearlysteps who looks primed to strike but I think will find the ground against him in the final 1/4. Selection - Exmoor Ranger 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Betfair chase should see Riverside Theatre take all the beating if overcoming the absence from the course, whilie Kauto Stone was just outclassed in the tingle creek by sizing europe, he has to prove this trip is within his stamina and it improves him, Medermit I think is below this level and a fit well riverside theatre has him beaten and maybe imsingingtheblues can be a big price placer in this race as he is finally showing his ability and stays well around here, Cant see Gauvain beating Riverside theatre on running 12 month ago and was very average here last time behind Somersby. There are too many probables, a fit Riverside Theatre would be the selection but I dont know and 2/1 isnt a price I would want to find out with as Kauto Stone would only needto find 4lbs improvement over this extended trip and Im Siningthe blues would be the call for a place bet but I think it could be just for one place and 5/2 isnt my cup of tea on that bet when Gauvain & little Josh are within 2lbs of him on my calculations. I will pass this but I hope RIverside theatre returns to form and watching brief for the end of season festivals for me. Thats Ascot bets done, Was going to play the handicap hurdle but it is far too packed with unexposed horses to risk my hard earned on, Smad Place caught the eye last time and could follow up but has a very big task conceeding that much weight to the impressive Swimcombe Flame who should go close in this even though I think she had her race last time, she should be hard to beat off this mark, Valid Reason looks a nice type now he got his act together after a poor debut and is open to all sorts of improvement, Orzare is likely to go well on these terms but I think Smad place will confirm placings and King Edmund is well handicapped on chase form and has no weight after the useful claimmer takes 5lbs off, 25-1 could be a big price but this looks a race im going to pass on. |
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2.45 Haydock Rendlesham Hurdle
Featherbed Lane was unlucky in the Lazarote hurdle when James Best lost his whip and looks a horse who is a battler and he may need them quailities today in this staying hurdle race in which he contest 3M for the first time under conditions that are not likely to be as tough as usual at Haydock, this isnt a overally strong grade 2 hurdle, but its quite open, I be surprised if Reindeer Dippin is good enough despite the course being a happy hunting ground for horse and trainer so far this season and I dont see Powerstation being anyting other then placed in this as he leads the Irish challange in this race which should be easier then his other commitments this side of the pond in the past. Cross Kennon won this last year but fences have left its mark and he looks a shadow of himself based on ascot run, Benny Be Good ran with credit over hurdles last time but seems to be better over fences now at 9yo. Restless Harry is my selection in this race of the back of a average run at Cheltenham last time, he is better over hurdles and will be kept over hurdles, they must be glad to see no Big Bucks in this line up and evn though Featherbed Lane is potentially a better horse, the stamina is confirmed for the Robin Dickin runner and I cant see himnot going close in this, he is 5lbs better then his nearest rival with only the favourite above him on form who hasnt got confirmed stamina and is 6/4 to see if he stays is not for me and he isnt clear enough on my ratings to be backed at that price. Restless harry 2pts e/w @ 5/1 3.20 Grand National Trail Neptune Collonges has to conceed weight away over a trip that should be more to his liking but I found Ruby Walsh had to keep him up to his work last time at Sandown and young Harry Derham will have his work cut out to concede weight to some smart staying types.Welsh national winner Le Beau bai I cant see winning this on drying ground and Giles Cross I think will reverse the form here today with Denis O'Reagan in the saddle again while Le beau Bai I think will confirm form with Sona Sasta who ties in the form to the warwick chase. Major Maralaky was my selection in the Warwick race and he flew late that day after getting caught out on the sharp term when they kicked and I think the pace of the race wasnt as strong as he liked, I think he will get the toe into the race required this time and Paddy Breenan is once again pairedup with the horse, he is likely to reverse the form with Fredo I feel today as they were out the handicap that day too and with drying ground likely to suit I think the pair will fight out the finish with Giles Cross in 3rd. Mon Mome looked gone last time as he went from travelling well to emptying very quickly when yard was flying and mohayer needs to prove he stays. Major Maralaky 1pt e/w @ 16-1 3.55 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle This is a tricky affair with many of these having been ran in chase races of late and the return to hurdles for quite a few of them, there are a few unknown quantities in this race in terms of novices and Grand Vision is eye catching with Tom O'Brien on top whilie Houblon Des Obeauex is likely to go well again after winning on first attempt over 3M last time out at cheltenham on new Year's day. James Ewart yard are in good form and his Sa Suffit went well behind Dynaste over hurdles back on betfair chase day and has a chance on that running, however that day links me too both the selections I have in this race and the first one won that day over fences in the shapr of Tarimnbleu who reverts too hurdles after doing his winning over fences for the time being and David Pipe s a master of these types to return to hurdles and Tamrinbleu is 11lbs lower then his chase mark of 150 in which he was well beaten off, a loser over hurdles at 1/10 in his novice hurdle days he has always been thought of as a decent hurdler and at 25/1 he is worth ago at his favoured track in a race fullof possiabilites. the other selection is Houblon Des Obeaux who has more to offer over 3M after winning at Cheltenham last time, he is going the right way and caught the eye when finishing behind any given day on the same card that has been favourable mentioned, he proved that 3M would suit and this track in particular will suit. Tarmarinbleu 1pt e/w @ 25/1 & Houblen Des Obeaux 1pt e/w @ 9/1 |
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Wincanton
3.45The Kingwell Hurde Binocular would have been a maxbet if it wasnt for the addition of starluck in this race as Binocular I feel has the course specialists Nearby & Celestrial Halo covered here and its the 8lbs he has to concede to starluck that could have him beaten, the thing is starluck has been off a whilie after flopping over fences and could well be slightly below his former best in which at the weights he would be fairly tied with Binocular. The Henderson horse has his knockers who arent convinced by him but he won the cristmas hurdle against rock on ruby who handed the likesof raya star a beating at newbury then time before giving more weight away then Zarakander did, so in a way he most probably beat the best champion hurdle chance from the Nichols yard, you can discount the fighting fifth run he always comes up short in that race, but I think Binocular may still be the best chance Henderson has of a champion hurdle against the fly, the drying ground will have no excuses for Binocular tomorrow,any give then starluck has more of a chance but he doesnt have timmy murphy this time ontop and with no offence to tom cannon that is a negative for Star luck as Timmy Is his perfect jockey. Binocular 2pt win @ 8/13 3.10 Handicap Chase Marodima shouldnt be able to run them all ragged today, he should get headed inmy view and the mare Easter Meteror is improving well and could be ahead of the handicapper on debut, however I cant see hunt ball being beaten here as he continues to progress at a rate of notes and I cant believe he lost at Plumpton 2 runs back as he has improved further and holds the likes of Inside dealer on course run last time and recieves weight alround, a strong pace should help this strong travelling type. All for free has a easier task then last time and this is more his level, based on sandown run where he stayed on behind Hold Fast he should get the trip and can give Hunt ball the most to do, Flaming Gorge failed too complete last two times but has ability. Hunt Ball 1pt win @ 7/2 2.35 Vetreans Handicap Mount Oscar has form to land this at the oldest age in this handicap and is respected, however the two I like is first Frankie Figg for the Nichols yard who always land a race at Wincanton and the claimmer takes 7lbs of his back and this ex howard johnson horse who saves his best for aintree over this trip can go close in this handicap having only ran right handed forthe 2nd time in hs career at Taunton where he ran into a prgressive rival over a trip short of his best, he caught the eye that day and has been dropped to a winning mark so I think he will be well suited to this track and the right handed nature of the track isnt a negative. The other is Only Vintage who has jumping issues but was impressive 2 runs back and has the right handling in Timmy Murphy to get into a rhythum with his jumping, the last runcan be discounted as it was just one of those days for the horse, when he is good he is very good and when he isnt he is awkward, expect better showing today. Frankie Figg 1pt e/w @ 8/1 & Only Vintage 1pt e/w @ 14/1 |
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Well done WC, superb effort to devote so much time to these write up's and enjoyable reading someone's well calculated thoughts.
That 2.25 Ascot where Massini's bugs you some, just a note, it's win in 2010 was with Pipe, it had already gone from Hobbs' at the time, don't want ya losing money should it win on a misread! As it goes I think you're totally right, since the freeze that yard's horses haven't run a yard and after his shocker last time out I think he's best left well alone today...think your selection looks a very solid e/w bet and is overpriced as you have stated. Best of Luck today. |
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Thanks Studious1 and best of luck with your bets.
2.50 Lingfield The mare Crystal Gal has ability but has a few question marks against her, she is around 20/1 and might be worth trying at a big price to find out if she is as good on pollytrack as she was on turf, the one that really takes the eye is Mr Willis who finished 3rd here last time and the time before wasnt beaten far behind Loyalty, he looks certain to go well on these terms today and if getting the run of the race can reverse the form with that rival. There is plenty of pace on for him to aim at and he should be finishing with strongly, luck is always needed round lingfield and Marc Halford gives this 6yo a good ride on a few occassions without winning, hopefuly today is the day. Hazzard County is closest on my calculations to Mr Willis and is another who should finish well under Laura Pike but I think she may not find enough. Its a open race and Mr Willis looks to have a decent chance, but Im not going over the top at 7/1 Mr Willis 1pt e/w @ 7/1 3.25 6F Handicap Nubar Boy, Waterloo Dock and Cut the cackle all has claims, but Mark johnston yard are in fine form at the moment and a return to pollytrack should do the trick for Joe Le taxi under Joe Fanning, I see Joe Getting a nice position from draw number 4 and then kicking of the turn and being hard to peg back in true Mark Johnston style, he is well handicapped and suited to trip, going and course so has much in favour and at 9/2 is worth a bet here today. Joe Le taxi 2pts win @ 9/2 Best of luck all |
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Cracking read WC! Much appreciated especially with the time it takes to research and do race previews. Well done
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Great thread Well Chief.
You deserve a few winners after those previews today. As an aside did you write previews on Stow Judge's site a few years back ? |
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Well Massini Maguire did win the race and I cant believe I put myself off the horse!! Riverside Theatre returned well but over the long term I think I will win when not totally convinced. Starluck wasnt as good as old and Binocular maybe should have been a max bet but he still won so good stuff, Hunt Ball won again and has now doubled his first handicap mark, amazing stuff from the trainer. Mr Willis is looking hard to win with and Tarimnbleu ran a fantastic race, just wondering what the place return was on that horse on here as he drifted to 33/1!!!
Restless harry was a deserved winner, was worried for a moment when cross kennon was involved but a win not to be denied. Return on the day +11.30pts Overall +21.05pts |
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Nice thread Well Chief, profit going very well..
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Thanks billy, Monte I am him, hope STow still going great guns.
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Cracking start WC
Nowt carp about that profit Keep flushing them winners out  |
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2.30 Staying handicap
Tony McCoy should see Spot the ball home in front in this handicap chase after twice the horse being denied over fences, however he remains in good health having won over hurdles in between and with the boss now a non runner he should have enough to beat Killcommon pride who has improved for the more testing stamina races in his last two runs. These two deserve there place at the head of the market with Iona Days also a non runner,allways Bold hasa point to prove but could run better this time over this trip then when last seen at Hereford where he was disappointing. Spot the Ball 2pt win @ 7/4 3.00 Handicap Chase Millo Milan takes a big drop in class after finding the grade 2 company too hot to handle last time and should show more at this level even though the handicapper hasnt given him any help at the weights and on my ratings I make him 3rd best behind Gentle Bob by 1lb who won a easier handicap here last time out and represents a horse with much in favour here. However this looks like a perfect chance for the Mare Douryna who has been running very well of late and round off the weekend for the trainer in good style as he had a hatfull of winners yesterday. Brenden Powell keeps the ride having got a tune out of her last time behind niceonefrankie who continues to improve, she stays and jumps well and looks to have a solid chance, rimini goes back over fences unde Richard Johnson and is respected but needs to stay the trip. Douryna 2pts e/w @ 9/2 Market Rasen bets to come |
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2.40 19F handicap hurdle
Sir Tantuallas Hawk has claims in this but most probably will find a couple too good and has only ever contested one right handed run which was here and he was well tailed off, Atagalance is starting to look like he could be of interest and im sure there is a ahaydock handicap for him sometime soon so one for the notebook for me. Kandari can win this if still retaining old ability after a long time off the track, the market will tell us as he is likely to be involved here. The McCain horse Dorabelle who has strong claims in this race given her form in class 2 handicap hurdle races, she can bounce back to form after two poor efforts as she often starts to come back into form once the weather starts to improve with spring conditions a big bonus. River Dragon loves it around here and a reporduction of the last two runs here would have him getting his head in front and he is very consistent so u know what to expect and can give Dorabelle the most to do. Dorabelle 1pt e/w @ 7/1 3.50 Handicap Chase I had this down as between Accordingtolawrence & Heavnly Chorus on form and the former could well win this race as he has the talent, however he does like to down tool quite quickly and isnt one to trust, however the booking of Tom Scudermore suggest a strong display from the horse today over CD he put up his best effort to date, so maybe the last run can be discounnted as he wouldnt be the first horse to dislike the left handed Southwell track, espcially given his form right handed. Heavnly Chours has Richie McGrath booked for the ride and she has a chance for a yard that does well at this track and the Jock is riding really well at the moment. The only other that was of intrest to me was Earl Grez who returns after a lay off to contest this and I think there will be other days for that horse, its a trappy affair and bets are best kept small. Accordintolawrence 1pt e/w @ 8/1 Best of luck all |
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Good to see you back on here posting WC, and also a good idea to get your selections on one thread, so folk can look back and see the quality of your selections. Quite fancied Mr Willis myself but would have wanted to have a claimer on top taking off 5lbs but was still a good run, well done again. Hopefully with your good self and Robster taking the time to put up your thoughts will make the forum worth reading again.
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Well Chief
Great effort with this thread and agree with the other posters that these type of threads are a positive for the forum... 3.55 Tamarinbleu was 7.71 for the place 2.50 I had it between 4 or 5 and had the winner in there but couldn't be confident but it was quite a messy race ... The Stewards held an enquiry into possible interference approaching the final furlong. Having heard their evidence and viewed recordings of the race they found that MR WILLIS, placed third, ridden by MARC HALFORD, had interfered with MIA’S BOY, unplaced, ridden by Ryan Clark. The Stewards found Halford in breach of Rule (B)54.1 and guilty of careless riding in that he allowed his horse to drift right. They suspended him for three days as follows: Saturday 3, Monday 5 and Tuesday 6 March. [Ryan Clark, the rider of MIA’S BOY, unplaced, reported that the gelding suffered interference in running.] good luck ... |
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Usual very informative write ups Well Chief the 2.40 is hugely difficult with most of the protaginists open to improvement I am down to 3 but leaving the same out with reluctance my three are El Dancer 21lbs lower than when winning a Grade 2 hurdle at Chelters tho 2poor runs latest,Dorabelle could have a lot of improvement and stable going great guns,Elsafeer tho can,t work this stable out small dutch of those 3. good luck all.
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Thanks guys,
Differcult day today, Two 4th places and 1 third placed horse and a well supported unseatted horse. Anyway -10pts on the day. Time to move on. Carlisle have some decent races for a Monday, I have had a look at them and will post my findings tonight, Wolverhampton I will do in the morning. |
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A pleasant thread, I never back em but always read, wd so far, well Chief.
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3.05 Racing Wellfare Handicap Hurdle class 3 20F
Tenor Nivemais sets the standard on the book at the weights after a very impressive 32L win over Stormy Weather two runs back, but he has to prove that he has stamina to get home in these tough conditions as he failed to get home at cheltenham, now that could have been down to the conditions being a little on the lively side as he improved massivly for cut in the ground, he has around 6lbs in hand of his closest rival in this race and is open to improvement and the stamina issue can be chanced with a price of around 17/2, The Venetia Williams yard are still in good form and the Jockey rides this horse well so he has to make the shortlist as a possiable. The closest horse I have to him is Dusky Bob who finished 2nd last time to the stout staying and improving Grand Vision last time and is certain to be popular with that form line to his name, he gets lumps of weight which is a bonus in the conditions and is a stout stayer he looks for intense in purposes the solid choice each-way at 6-1. There are some improvers in this handicap to consider as it is a tough handicap and Quimte De Chatelet is interesting for a yard that has done well in the past at this track with their limited runners heading north, he could go well again having led them all a merry dance, however he is the most exposed horse of the leading fancies and with 11lbs hike is vulnerable i feel. Graffite best form over this trip came in his novice days, he ha been running over shorter more recent. The two less exposed horses are Glean Na Ndochairs who has been improving for further and the same can be said for Knockando who has improved for the extra few furlongs of late, the drop back with him is a bit of a surprise, but the yard are flying and always respected with their runners at this track. Dusky Bob 2pt e/w @ 6/1 |
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good luck well chief, nice write up. you've got me tempted :)
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3.40 Cumberland Handicap Chase Class 3
Do It For Dalky is the early favourite in what looks a very open handicap and I think Do It For Dalky is in the grip of the handicapper now as this looks a tough race for him to win unless he finds further improvement as a 10yo and is 1-1 over this trip around here so you can see how he would be subject to favourable support. The Stablemate however is veru interesting despite the pulled up on the last two tries, that is concerning espcially given that Bold Ransom who left him behind on the most recent run is in this race albeit 12lbs different at the weights, the run back here in october has him as the one to beat as he meets Horsham Lad on 9lbs better terms. It is a chance to back him as his best runs have come right handed in the main, but he did seem to enjoy it here last time and the yard have a superb record in handicap chases around this track including bigger priced winners. I cant back My Boy Paddy given the yards performance on Saturday in which at least 4 of their runners were tailed off before half way through the race and the 14yo Victory Gunner needs a personal best at 14yo which I cant see happening at the weights against these rivals. The Mare Overlady has some claims as she is in form, but she isnt the type I would rush to back on following up at 7/1. Horsam Lad isnt overly exposed 1t 8yo and could still find more form to overcome the weight turn around with Vamizi, he is a nice price at 9/1 for this with conditions and track to suit, the added bonus of Paddy Brennen retaining the ride adds to his claims and he and Bold Ransom look two solid types for this race without any question marks against their names and the first mentioned in the main being a solid enough jumper. Horsham Lad 1pt e/w @ 9/1 & Vimizi 1pt e/w @ 20/1 4.10 Handicap Chase The top one is interesting on only his fourth run for the yard but has to improve on what he has shown so far and the price is more reflected on the stable then the horse ability in my view. This I feel is between the Lucinda Russell pair Et maintenant & prosecco and they are closely matched in the market as well. They have very similair profiles withmost of their winning being over the minimum distances, however the former has proven to enjoy this longer trip and has form atthis track over this distance which has him a solid type for this handicap given the confidence booster he had last time at Ayr. At a price of 5/1 I see him a solid bet for this handicap and he can continue the run of horses that deny his stablemate. Et Maintenant 1pt e/w @ 5/1 Best of luck all |
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4.25 9 1/2F handicap
My only bet on the card comes in this handicap in which the long returning Aegean King is a favorite for and I can see why given that his best performance came at this track back in April 2010 and has the stronger handling this day of David Probert on the return to the flat and on my ratings I have him highly placed but with a long absence I would want much bigger than the 5/2 on offer, however he is still only 2nd best as there is a horse that is potentially who has put up a 5lbs better performance then that effort that is of interest at around 7/1 today and that is Jamie Spencer Mount Strong Vigilance for the inform Michael Bell yard, this horse has shown very little form of late as is represented in his duck egg form figures, however he has ability to win at this level with one win from 2 runs at this low level. In fact his performances back in spring last year are clear of these on all known form lines. The concern is he has had much in his favor since the spring last year and finished last on both occasions, however the yard is now in fine form and Jamie Spencer is in the saddle again for the ride, both career wins have come at this track and if Jamie sits close to the pace from a favorable middle draw he can pounce with very little pace in this race, at 7/1 he looks a more viable option then the favorite as these two are the best horses in the race at their best and there isn’t any horses that aren’t exposed or rapidly improving. Vanilla Run is best of the rest but isn’t certain to get the strong pace needed and maybe Kyle of brute is the biggest danger having needed the run latest and likely to get a nice position in the firing line. Strong Vigilance 1pt e/w @ 7/1 |
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Very small profit on the day as 3 placed efforts, anyhow on to tomorrow and my findings, hopefully with a bit more luck.
3.05 handicap Chase If Crossguard can transfer his hurdles form to fences then he could well take this trappy affair on chase debut, however I wont be rushing to back Grand Article at single figures odds when he has failed to win in 22 runs under rules and at the weights on my calculation isnt the best weighted horse on form. Kinkeel is hard to win with having won just 5 times in 112 races, however he does run well in the early part of the year and is often turned out quickly to land a race and he wasnt excatly given a hard time when asked to race in what was the most impossiable task at Newbury on Friday, he has had a spin around the track and has been running well suggesting another win isnt too far away. With rain due at the track the ground is likely to be ideal and he stays the trip with two of his wins coming over 19F.He may have not won in seven attempts around this track, but he does know his way around here and at 9/1 is worth ago. Kinkeel 1pt e/w @ 9/1 3.40 Handicap Hurdle class 2 The feature race on the day and not just the card and it has some nice types in it. The ground is likely to be different from Friday where Sire De Grugy ran so well in the betfair hurdle behind Zarakander and given how hot that race was he came out of it with much credit and is a little bit surprising to see him turned out so quickly as that race usually leaves it mark, but he clearly has come out of the handicap well and should be tough to beat as he won a Grade 2 in the mud as well to his name. The biggest bonus for the horse is that he doesnt have to carry top weight in this handicap due to Dee Ee Williams making his seasonal reapperance. Edgardo Sol will have stable doubts over him and I expect him to drift, he needs to find improvement to win this as well on the book. Higgy's Ragazzo Suffered in the ground last time at Sandown and has those question marks here today. Devil To Pay ran well on comeback run around here last time and had the likes of drumshambo in behind, The ground is likely to suit Drumshambo more this time around, however Devil To Pay has proven to enjoy soft ground in the past having ran well on soft ground in his novice days, he has improved his form more then Drumshambo who holds him on Novice form, but Devil to pay is better at the weights on the most recent meeting and the Alan King yard are banging in the winners at the moment. If Nampour can roll back the years he would win of this mark with ease, but he showed very little on comeback run where he may have had things not quite in his favour. Sire De Grugy is very much the one to beat in this handicap, but after a tough run and tougher conditions underfoot the 2/1 is a little bit skinny for me and Edgardo Sol with public knowledge of sickness at the stables isnt the alternative for me. Devil to Pay has improvement in him with slower ground likely to help and a low racing weight, the yard are inform and he has course experience. Devil to Pay 1pt e/w @ 15/2 3.15 Wetherby Class 3 handicap Chase This looks like it is between Strongbow Legend and Wolf Moon and the former ran well at Warwick behind Hey big Spender latest, but that was over a longer trip and when he trotted up in good fashion 3M the time before he was a far superior horse to the others contesting the race, this looks a tougher race over 3M for him to win but he is going the right way. However Wolf Moon is a horse that runs well around this track and looks likely to give another bold account off a nice racing weight of 152lbs and will enjoy the conditions with the forcested rain in the area, he stays the trip well and jumped these fences well when finishing behind Court Red Handed over C&D two runs back, he seems to have the same ability over fences as hurdles and he is well handicapped based on his hurdles form, the yard have a good record in chase races at this track with their limited amount of runners and the yard are still running well at the moment. Loose Performer is a danger as he is open to all sorts of improvement as he steps into handicap company for the first time, he needs to prove as effective in the conditions and he could be put under pressure in the jumping stakes under top weight today, hopefull start has been hit by the handicapper and has much more on his plate despite beating Kilcommon Pride who won on Sunday.Jaunty Journey has been running well over further recently. Wolf Moon 2pts e/w @ 12/1 4.00 Southwell Ian Williams looks set to finally give Spartan King a win as the horse has finally found conditions to suit after a decent staying on 2nd last time out at Southwell in which he had Mister Frosty in behind who he meets on a 1lb better term and the extra furlong should improve him further on this surface, given the fact he seemed to improve for running over further on pollytrack in time, Jamie Spencer is booked for the ride replacing Michael O'Connell and the jockey does very well for the yard, so it looks all set for a big show today as I make him well handicapped for this. Spartan King 1pt win @ 10-3 |
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3.30 Doncaster Veterans Handicap Chase - Class 2 (0-145)
Mumbles Head has failed to complete a race on its last 3 starts and that explains why the horse is such a big price for this as he is well handicapped on his best chase efforts, he was going very well when he fell at Uttoexter in the summer national back in 2010 and was really excelling on the ground that day so the better ground today shouldn't be a problem. The problem with this horse is his wellbeing as well as the jumping mistakes he often makes, he was poor at Aintree earlier on in the season where he tried taking several fences with him and in the Welsh national he was well in touch when unseating his rider. Tom O'Brien is given the task of getting this 11yo jumping again and he has ridden the horse to good effect in the past with 2 wins and 2 places to his name, This galloping 3M shouldn't be a problem for his stamina even though he has been seen to best effect around a sharp track as he stays further then 3M and the 4L defeat by Weapon Amnesty in his novice days would have him as well handicapped along with the Summer National performance he was in the process of running on a mark of 137 which he is now 8lbs lower for this. Wogan is a course specialist but also has concerns, Faasel needs further and Mark the Book is a mud lover who has totally different conditons today. Nikola is a danger but the yard still havent totally turned the corner even my boy paddy went well the other day. Mumbles Head may well fail to complete but he has much in favour to get back into form and at 14/1 is well worth ago. Mumbles Head 1pt e/w @ 14/1 |
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4.05 3M Class 3 Handicap Hurdle
Bob N you catch the eye on return to the track but the long absence has to be of a concern despite the fact the horse goes well fresh, he is invitingly handicapped for this race and reproduction of the 3rd in a graded handicap hurdle at Aintree back in 2010 and under similar conditions could run well if ready to go at the first time of asking and at a best price of 33/1 it may well be worth a chance playing. The Novice Soudain is a stout stayer and is likely to get this trip at a strong pace, the booking of Brian Hughes is a eye catcher as Keith Mercer is sidelined, the jockey has a strike rate of 28% for the Steve Gollings yard, His chance is better than the odds suggest here today of a mark of 115 if he copes with this sounder surface then he has encountered before (breeding suggest he will). Decoy has the ability to land this if improving for the longer trip as he handles the ground based on his useful hurdles victory at Cheltenham, the price of around 8/1 is quite short with stamina not assured in this handicap and he isn’t a play for me until proving his stamina. Devotion to duty should be thereabouts in this handicap with the conditions underfoot to suit today as his only poor effort this season came in heavy ground at Newcastle and it should be just perfect for him today, the yard continue to be inform and I feel are overdue a victory at Doncaster, the horse was well beaten by Decoy at Cheltenham, but he is better suited to this 3M and should have claims to reversing the form and at 20/1 looks overpriced for this. Devotion to duty 1pt e/w @ 20-1 4.30 Lingfield class 4 6F Handicap This 3yo race I have as a straight match between Wassem Falls & Pale Orchid as I feel 6 furlongs is a little on the sharp side for Adranian at this level now. Wassem Falls finished 4L behind Pale Orchid last time at Kempton and the change of track and the new weights will have connections hoping that they can turn around the form today, Pale Orchid just failed to follow up last time and is best priced at 11/10 and I don’t think she showed that much improvement next time out to warrant such a short price, Wassem Falls is my choice as I would say there is 1L between the pair and the Mick Channon horse is as big as 8/1 in some places and is my choice in this handicap. Wassem Falls 1pt e/w @ 8/1 8.00 Kempton class 4 6F Handicap This looks a wide open event in which Torres des Paine seeks the hat-rick in his stiffest test to date and could get the hat-rick at a fair price, however the one they all have to beat is Hayley Turner and Clear Praise who has the ability to come out on top here tonight which much in his favor, the horse looks to be shaping back into winning form and is better value at 9/2 then Arctic Lynx who I don’t think has much in hand over the improving Torres Des Paine here. Pick a Little at 9/1 completes those that have much in favor and should be involved, but for the bet I will take Clear Praise at 9/2. Clear Praise 2pts e/w @ 9/2 |
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Just one bet for Thursday as its a pretty average day.
4.10 Southwell 8F Handicap Alot depends on the likely favourite of this handicap Colour Squadron who has had one run and it was a win at this track over 7F on this surface, the price is likely to be short but he does have improvement to come and on breeding maybe a mile will be more his trip, however at a short price making his debut in a handicap over a trip further then he won his maiden I will pass over at the price as this isnt a poor handicap. Masai Moon is a early non-runner and he wouldn't have been the one I would have sided with to overcome the fav as he is much better over 7F then a mile and is sure to find a race over tha trip in the coming week. Piceno has a lot in favour for today's run and should go well at a double figure price while Aquarian Spirit is a live threat if handling fibresand and on breeding there is everychance of that happening, however the solid choice that I Like is the ex-Mark Johnston horse Greyfrairschorista who was so impressive here 3 runs back when he ran out a easy 10L winner over C&D and maybe can be forgiven the next run over the same trip on a much higher mark, he was below par that day with a wider draw and is worth another crack here at a decent price of 8/1 and he is my selection as that win is what they all have to aim at and from draw number 4 can get a decent position to challange off and hopefullycan outstay the favourite who is the obvious danger if he stays. Greyfrairschorista 2pts e/w @ 8/1 Best of luck all, I will update tomorrow night and looking at Friday briefly I should have more races to get involved in. |
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A pleasure to read.......
Another winning day...well done WC |
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Great thread Well Chief, I've actually just seen it for the first time this morning. Good luck with your selection today.
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top man as always
can you explain how the pts staked system works........... is 3pts the max or have you a higher staking plan?? keep up the good work a profit is a profit! |
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Thanks all.
Paddy1 the staking plan is between 1-5pts for a win only bet and the each-way bets are between 1-3pts, which is a max of 6pts staked. I go each-way as over a course of time I have found my bets to get placed more often then not. I weigh up the dangers and concerns I have as to how much I am prepared to risk. Best of luck with your punting. Today's runner found a couple to good, one a improver who I did consider a danger and the other like my selection was well backed. Couldn't believe it went off as short as 10-3. Anyway a few races of interest tomorrow so time to commit sometime to valuating the race |
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Thanks Well Chief - took your advice and backed the place at 2.6 early doors,a nice profit.
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4.40 Eric Charm Handicap Chase Class 3 5yo+ (0-125)
This race could have a turn on its head kind of look to it as those at the head of the market have a few question marks to overcome at the weights as well as changing conditions. Dont Tell Sailor is likely to run his usual honest race but for me at a likely single figure price this handicap looks much tougher, While Moleskin won under a enterprising ride last time by Paul Maloney and even though the regular jock is back on top I think he will struggle to confirm the Kempton form with Reblis at the weights who has a decent enough efforts to call on this kind of surface and out of those at a possiable single figure price appeals the most. However with Knock de Verzee not having condtions to suit underfoot of those at the bigger prices the lightly raced 8yo Fort View looks to have a decent chance at the weights today with his regualar claimmer on board for the ride. The horse isnt as bad a jumper as the post make him out to be, he has only fallen once in his ten runs under rules and he also has jumped round Aintree when fifth to Baby Run last spring, the better ground should be ideal for him and even though it takes some jumping this track I believe he can go well with 2 wins on right handed tracks. the last run at Ludlow a track he fell at he jumped right throughout the race and was struggling to travel on the ground, he has alot more in his favour today and has a chance in this handicap with many question marks over the vast majority of the runners. Fort View 1pt e/w @ 25-1 3.45 Warwick handicap Chase class 3 0-135 A wide open handicap in which top weighted Fortification is likely to go well under Timmy Murphy, while the Philip Hobbs Horse Leading contender has been calling out for this further trip and could well win at the weights today with James Best taking 7lbs of the back of the horse today. He was once 2nd to National winner Don't Push it in which he stayed on well to finish 2nd and providing he doesnt down tools like he did last time out in the cheekpieces he should go well with the yards horse starting to show some form again after a poor run of form and is my choice in front of trigger the light who always runs his race around here for a yardon top of their game. Cerium is another who could go well if in the right mood around a track he likes. Leading Contender 1pt e/w @ 11/1 |