3.25 Lingfield 7F Handicap class 4 0-80

This fillies race looks very much betweem Liby's Dream and Triple Charm and maybe with the less exposed nature of Triple charm I can see why she is favourite for this race today, however Liby's Dream wasn't disgraced last time out in a listed race in which she had Requiste in behind and she wasn't beaten that far at the finish, this Lingfield track should suit her running style today if she traps well under Richard Kingscote who keeps the ride on her and he is striking up a good understanding with her. Triple Charm has Jamie Spencer replacing Shane kelly today and that could bridge the 4lbs gap I have between the two here, while Chevise under Hayley Turner is the best of other 3 in my view.

Liby's Dream 3pt win @ 9/4


7.30 Wolverhampton 9F Handicap Class 4 0-85

A tough looking handicap and Knowe Head is a frustrating horse who continues to run well without getting his head in front and certainly is a horse that has a win on him before the turf season gets started, however this looks another tough close handicap that can see him beaten again. It wouldn't surprise me to see Just Bond run well in this handicap today and at 14/1 I wouldn't put off anyone giving him ago, while Thunderstuck is another who is likely to go very well here and is closely matched with Mullins Way who most probably will confirm form here. However Snow Dancer looks like she will go well here again tonight and at 7/1 looks worth risking here as she very rarely runs a poor race over this C&D. Her Record in feb is eye catching as well and the form of the conditions race bck here in december has workedout very well, The 36 Day break isnt a concern for me and i'd be dissapointed if she doesn't give me a run for my money.

Snow Dancer 2pts e/w @ 7/1

Think MOS has it nailed. If no rain and good going or better then you have to think Like A Hurricane has a very good chance; especially with King's horses running very well lately and coming back to hurdles after two runs in chases. Does have to win off a career high mark but track, distance, going, trainer form are all positives.

If it rains enough to make it G/S then I would switch back to P&C.

Soz - Just saw the other as well - add Reblis to that

Madhatters its been my luck for the last week, some weeks they will all fall into place, others not, long term hopefully things will come good

all the best mate and good luck, excellent thread

exellent thread well chief
a real pleasure to find someone putting logical well presented write ups alongside their selections
well done and good luck with your future punting.

I like deep purple also but for the national itself, he won that sandown race impressively when upped to 3.5 and that really threw up the possibility of him wanting the extreme trip these days, i think he'll travel well before being outgunned at the end over the 3.

The one i'll be taking a chance with is ROYAL CHARM, a classy novice for nicholls last year when he was the early season arkle fav. when winning a couple at exeter.Unfortunately he was then off until aintree where he returned to run 3rd behind wishful thinking.First time up this year was the interesting run as he was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time at this track and was still travelling on the bridle when knuckling on landing in the race won by golan way, it was still a way from home but i got the impression he was the likely winner which is obviously debateable, but certainly looked as though he was appreciating the step up to 3 miles.His subsequent runs were back down to 2 miles which he disappointed in and then over hurdles, but it's just that run over 3 which impressed me and i think that maybe they took note of that run and protected him a bit subsequently with perhaps this in mind.

3.25 Newcastle Eider Handicap Chase

A brutal staying race shouldnt be as testing as other years unless the rain hits newcastle in the monring. Morgan Be is a regular in this race and stays the trip well and has had a confidence booster with this in mind when winning over 3M under Ritchie Mcgrath, this has once again been the target for the horse and he can go well here today with a fairly decent racing weight. The ferdy murphy Horse finally won a chase race at the 11th time of asking and given the trainer it be no surprise to see it roll into the winners enclosure again here winning a big pot such as this even though his record in the race reads PP. Posh bird was beaten in the home straight by Mister marker who caught the eye the time before at haydock over hurdles in which he stayed on strongly that day and with stamina ensured is likely to reverse the running here today in my view. Incentivise looks handicapped well and has a low racing weight which is a bonus and is a stayer, Charlie poste does well for the yard and gets the leg up for the first time, but the break needs to have done him well I feel as the last run at Bangor was well below his usual form around that track. However for the winner I return to Ferdy's plot horse.

Nagus De Beaumont 1pt e/w @ 8/1

2.50 Cleves Stakes - Listed Sprint

The head of the market looks to have this sorted between them and the rightly so Favourite Oasis Dancer is likely to be hard to beat based on the most recent success over course & Distance in a handicap in which he gave weight to the likes of Googlette, Fratilino and moe importantly Capone and those three all reooppose at the weights to do on less favourable terms, the fact Jim Crowley sticks by Oasis Dancer is another significant factor as he rode the 2nd favourite Palace Moon last time to victory and therefore should have a idea of what it will take to beat that rival. The Majority of these have had plenty of runs and arent improving much to bridge the gap and the only one with a less exposed nature of those that have a chance is Googlette who has had six runs so far and the introduction of Jamie Spencer could bring her along further improvement, however she was put in her place last time and would need to find significant improvement on that run but a stonger pace would give her supporters some hope. The only fly in the otiment as to speak for the favourite is Docofthebay who won a listed race last time out for Dandy Nicholls and today on first run for Scott Dixon with Ian Mongan returning to the saddle, he is a danger but is more exposed then the favourite, but if on his best form for his new handler he could well follow up that win last time, but thats a big if.

Oasis Dancer 2pt win @ 13-8

3.20 Winter Derby Trail Stakes 10F

Our Joe Mac makes his debut on the all weather today after a unproductive time over hurdles and he still has a future over hurdles in my view as he just didnt hand the winter ground well and could well make hay over hurdles this spring, he has the class to go well in this race today with some strong handicapping form to his name on the turf including a good win at York back in August and has a chance. Loayalty looks held in handicaps now and takes on 10 furlongs in which he never excelled over and that has him being oppossed today at around 5/1. Junoob & Emma's Gift has very little between them on form, however the former has run well in these races in the past and has lots in his favour tday and should go close and if Our Joe Mac doesn't act as well on the all weather then Junoob should be the one to beat and with proven factors he is the best bet for this in my view.

Junoob 1pt e/w @ 5/1

Great stuff WC

3 very nice winners today WC, and some very nice write up's to back up your thinking..WD

3.40 Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle

A tricky affair with several of these running into the unknown with the likes of Clerk Choice & Third Intention needing to prove they have the stamina, whilie the likes of Bally Legend has to make up ground and weight on Third Intention on their running against each other at Taunton, However Bally legend does have proven stamina in his locker if not as classy as that rival. Afsoun is the rag in this race and contested this race last year when finishing 3rd, he falls just below the stamina needed to win a race at this level and it will be a surprise if his effort 12 months ago proved strong enough to win this race, even though in a nice 8 runner size field he could get some place money. Duc Du reginere hasnt run well this season, but if he was to roll back the years he would be a serious contender for this and at 12-1 would be worth the risk. Topolski has to prove he stays and given his flat performances I believe he should get the trip, his win at Aintree last season in a grade 2 novice event would have him in the thick off it, but he has the injury doubt to get over.

Battle group has failed over fences and returned to hurdling last time at Cheltenham and wasnt disgraced over a trip short of his best, I expect he will run much better today over this more sutiable trip. The Trainer has a good record at Fontwell and I do believe today will be the ideal race for Battle Group today and is a overpriced at 14-1 for this in my view.

Battle Group 1pt e/w @ 14-1

I will do a update on bets later.

However the P/L is +24.23pts

5 bets today.

3.25 Bangor Handicap hurdle class 2 20F

Bangor hosts a half decent card today and I am prepared to take on the well fancied favourite who is going the right way but has plenty more on his plate today and this looks a decent race with a few runners whose form at the weights on my calculations have a decent chance.

Cantlow for Paul Webber is one that can be considered to have a live chance in this handicap today as he has been waiting for this better ground and a chance to tackle this kind of company after a solid effort at Sandown last time over 22F, The slightly shorter trip isnt ideally likely to suit on the book but he did improve for the drop back last time from 24F, so the hope is that there could be further improvement to come from him. The Jigsaw Man is another who has a decent chance on the book after a very decent 4th in a better handicap hurdle then this last time at Newbury in which he caught the eye after making up good ground before emptying 3 out, so the drop back in trip should suit him today as he has some solid form over 20F in the book and handles these better conditions well and should go close. Radetsky March won well last time in a lower class race but the ground has kind of gone against him today and the other that could go well is the mare Cloudy Spirit who never really figured at ascot in a grade 2 for mares race over 3M, she stayed on that day without ever looking dangerous and this should be more to her liking with Timmy Murphy a interesting booking for the horse. She has the talent and ability to win a handicap off 132 and this is her type of ground and time of year so she is certainly overpriced at 14-1 and is my choice along with the Jigsaw man for this.

Cloudy Spirit 1pt win @ 14-1 & The Jigsaw Man 1pt @ 10-1

3.55 Bangor Handicap Chase Class 3

Valley View could and maybe will be hard to beat at the weights today under AP McCoy, but the odds on for me is a no play as the horse has a few things to prove here despite being unexposed. This is a totally different task for the horse as he goes up in class on a different type of track under different conditions and has to prove he stays this 3M, Now the ground shouldnt be a problem having handled it to good effect at Towcester the time before last, but the step up in trip isnt certain to suit in my view, there are too many if's to back at odds on and I only have him 3lbs in hand over Bold Ransom today who does have stamina in abundance. There are a few doubts over this rival too but I think the drop back in trip for this horse will suit in a small field aginst easier opponents then he has been running against and has at least shown form this season unlike Fablau for the McCain yard. Daldini looks gone at the game and the only concern for a each-way punt on bold Ransom is the french import who was no match in france for none other then Long Run. However at 7-1 Bold Ransom isa big price and could jump them all ragged under Timmy Murphy here who rode him to the haydock win.

Bold Ransom 2pt e/w @ 7-1

Good write ups again, may your success continue.

4.00 Ludlow Forbra Gold Challenge Cup Handicap Chase Class 3


Cootehill for the Twiston-Davies yard has plenty in his favor today as he bids to follow his win last time out at Leicester after several consistent performances at Ludlow prior to that win and has only 6lbs rise to overcome, Whilst the Hobbs Yard will be hoping for a winning return with Fairoak Lad who returns after a absence of 494 days in which the yard are usually good at readying them at the first time of asking and this right handed track should really be ideal for the horse as he has a very decent record right handed. Against him maybe the biggest danger will come from Checkerboard, if the Fergal O’Brien horse can return to some sort of form as he was a decent 2nd to Kennan’s Future at Aintree back in June last year, since that day he has had two runs against better opponents then this and failed to show any true form. There may be some excuses you can make as the ground had soft in going the description and he is very much a top of the ground horse, so a better show should be seen today. Drumbaloo is a unknown quantity over fences and could improve for the switch as he has ability (grade 2 bumper winner in Ireland) Whilst Theatre Diva is a consistent type albeit in non handicap races. Estates Recovery is inferior to Fairoak lad at the weights today and needs to improve. Roseneath would have a chance with maybe slower ground then today.

Fairoak Lad 1pt e/w @ 9-2

4.30 National hunt Novice Handicap Hurdle class 3

A nice little race with obviously plenty of improvers in to consider and the rag Autumn Spirit has shown much more over fences then he ever did over hurdles and needs to show those sort of performances over the smaller obstacles to have a chance in this today. An Cappel Mor ran on at Doncaster but had no chance with the easy winner that day Tour D`Argent and the McCain yard are in a rich vein of form at the moment with a very rare bad runner. That performance at Doncaster would have him thereabouts of this mark but the conditions of this race are much different to that day and he needs to prove he stays this extra trip as his precious two attempts at 2.5M have seen him well beaten albeit on tough going, the easier conditions underfoot should see if he does stay well enough and at around 7/1 he may well be worth the risk in this. Hit the Headlines is certain to see this trip out well having won at Huntingdon over 21F the time before last and was below par last time at Kempton when finishing 3rd to the Druids Nephew, he now takes on handicap company for the first time of a mark that should be well within his ability to win. Warwick winner themilanhorse has improvement and is another who stays well, he maybe a little bit short for what he has achieved and needs to find improvement on that average affair he won last time. So Happyharry sets the standard in handicap hurdle company in this having finished 3rd here to Foxbridge and he has a chance on that running, but is more exposed then his main rivals and level of form may just be below them. Foe me Nicky Henderson Hit the Headlines looks like a horse with potential and is my bet in front of an cappel mor who doesn’t have proven stamina yet.


Hit the Headlines 1pt win @ 11-4


4.20 Follow Southwell on twitter Handicap Class 4 12F


The filly Mazij is closely matched with Admirable Duque and The Lock Master over this course and distance in which she finished behind those two rivals and the only difference other then the change in the weights today is that the last mentioned has a different jockey on board today, with Neil Chalmes Back in the saddle.  I Can see The Lock Master reversing the form here today after a decent spin here over a mile last time out and he is very consistent around here and should run his usual race, the Filly shouldn’t have the run of the race with Pertemps Network in the race.  Tricksofthetrade seems to be going the right way and ran with much credit last time over 12F here and seems to be improving with every run on this surface, the last effort was a decent one and he has much more to come and should handle this step up in class.


Tricksofthetrade 1pt e/w @ 11-2


8.10 32red handicap 11F class 4

The feature race on the Kempton card sees my Name is Franco a short priced favorite for this handicap based on the run last time behind Layline at lingfield and this course specialist is likely to go well, however I do feel he is a little on the short side for this and I am prepared to take him on with the inform yard of Tom Danscombe and his runner Brouhaha who gets the services once again of Richard Kingscote who is riding very well at the moment. The last time these two paired up they finished 1L 2nd to Raucous Behavior and since that day he has fallen to attractive mark to run well in this tonight, the race should be run to suit and he holds a strong chance I feel against the fav as there isn’t enough between them to warrant the price difference. Maatleb could spring a surprise if able to show the promise he showed at Goodwood last summer, while Scamperdale has a lot in favor, but the old boy showed next to nothing on last two runs to be considered as a viable back for this.

Brouhaha 2pt e/w @ 8-1

Just 3 bets ona pretty average looking Friday race cards

2.55 WAR PARTY 1pt win @ 8/1 (365)

The last run at Sandown was quite a fetching effort by this horse as he meet some trouble in running around a track that takes some jumping and even though he was a little bit sketchy at a few fences he stayed on to good effect to suggest that a winning is in the offering and today with the addition of the head strong Marodima in the race I can see him staying on to good effect as he gets further then this 17F which given the likely strong pace he will need to stick on strongly. The Addition of Wake board in the race for the same owner has suggested that to me that he weight has been kept off with that rival in the race and the jockey claim of 5lbs putting him on a nice racing weight of 10 stone 11lbs and with drying spring conditions very much to his liking he should give a good show here today. his best effort in the last 12 months was  close 2nd at Aintree back in June under the same jockey as today and this track should be ideal from the change from Sandown as a flat left handed track looks very much to his liking and I expect he should go close at a nice price for his chance of 8/1.

4.50 MONTOYA'S SON 1pt win @ 8/1 Fred's

Has a lot in favour today if he reproduces his run here back in December in which he stayed on to finish 1L 3rd to Quicuyo and the form of that race has worked out well since. However Montoya's son has struggled since being raised just 2lbs for that effort. The Musselbrugh run not many got into that race as the winner jumped them all ragged in what lookd a competitive handicap chase and thenext run at Newcastle on really soft ground he was pulled up after struggling at half way over a trip that was further then he had ever ran before and the ground softer then ideal, it most probably wasnt the ideal race placement for the horse but the handicapper has shorrterned him by 2lbs for that effort so he is once again on the same mark as when he stayed on over C&D. The going stick suggest that the ground is going to be to his favor today providing they havent over watered and his record in small fields is decent. The horse has a good record from March to June and should land a race this spring and at a big price is worth ago.

5.00 Titan truimph 1pt win @ 13-2 PP

The William Knight yard are in good form and Titan truimph is back on a winning mark and one that the ability he still retains can be won off I feel. The fact that he is so effective around here. he has been running over a mile in recent weeks and hasnt been disgraced behind winners such as Locentanks, Forceful Appeal and Marajaa in better races then he contests today, this is a easier race and last time he didnt get home under Shane Kelly urgings and he certainly responds better to Jim crowley strong handling and the drop back to this 7F I feel could see him land a race at lingfield where he has recorded 6 of his 8 career wins and 5 under today's pilot despite the fact that he has to pass all rivals from his wide draw, he does has a turn of foot and even though he stayed on behind Numeral last time over 7F here and couldnt peg them back, those 3 that finished in front of him that day, have all ran well in better races since (chilli Green winner of 5lbs higher, Amitola winner 3lbs higher and Numeral only beaten 1.25L in a class 2 off 5lbs higher).

Hopefully a better day tomorrow. Best of luck all

another profitable day...well done

4.10 According to Pete 2pt win @ 5-2 (Lads, betfair & Boils)

3 runners in this race have a chance and Master of the Hall could well take all the beating in this if in the right frame of mind, whilie the Grand National winner Ballybriggs only defeat came in this race 12 months ago as he has his prep run for the grand national and is respected as the class horse in the race. However accordin to pete loves it around this track and is in really good form at the moment, his latest win in a grade 2 handicap chase showed that he is a hose going the right way and even though the conditions underfoot are different from those gruelling tests, he has acted well under these conditions in the past and I feel as the outsider of the 3 main players in this handicap he has every chance today to defy those odds as he has little question marks over him in terms of fittness and wanting to run his race.

2.40 Blazing Baily 1pt win @ 11-1 (Fred's)

Couple of dissapointing effots of late but he did run well in the Hennessy Gold Cup here back in November and is better handicapped now as he takes on the vets as a 10yo and even though he finished behind Fair Along that day, I feel he can reverse the form here on more favourable terms, the hennessy Gold Cup was quite a competitive handicap this year with no real superstar involved in the race and a few of those who raced in that event could be landing races in the coming weeks I feel. The return of Robert Thorton to the saddle should help this horse with 9 wins coming from this pairing and he always have threatened to land a race around here in his 4 efforts at this track in which he has ran into the likes of Inglies Driver & Big Bucks over hurdles. 9 of his wins have come in the first 3rd of the year and his form in class 2 handicaps is good as well. The stable are in very good form at the moment.

[b]3.10 Aerial 1pt win @ 9-2 general[b]


Paul Nichols has a strong hand in this handicap and his progressive Aerial wasn't disgraced behind The Giant Bolster last time at Cheltenham and based on lbs to lengths he comes out in front of his stablemate pasco who was well beaten here over 3M behind the giant bolster and time for rupert on soft ground, that rival is a course specialist and should go better then he did that day, however Aerial is improving and the run at Cheltenham he had a few of these in behind and the flatter track of Newbury I feel will suit him more then Cheltenham, The 3lbs dropped by the hanicapper is generous and woolcombe Folly once again is entered in the race to keep the weight off his back. Aerial has beaten many of these and should go close in this today with the likes of fix a rib & Pasco setting up the race for the likes of aerial to stick on strongly.

Good luck WC, Great work.

WD WC. Nice BOG bonus for you. Went 10's on here shortly after you posted - loons