Well done. Nice to see your informed analysis paying off.
Hope you go on to achieve the same as Robster.

Good luck with todays selection WC, are you not doing a running P/L to keep us informed?

Had been salivating all night about 20/1+ on Cast Cada. The £5 merchants ruined the early price again but they are going to rue it as the rain will have completely ruined his chance.

3.30 Exeter - CLASH DUFF 1pt Win @ 10-1 (General)

I feel the unexposed Jeremy Scott runner has a solid chance in this handicap after running well for a long way last time out at Warwick behind the likes of Cerium, Trip the light & the winner that day Fortfication and what he did was stay on nicely to suggest that these marathon trips are ideal for the horse and can improve on that effort. The horse denied me a bet back two runs ago when improving for the step up in soft conditions on the right handed track of huntingdon and last time he improved again, he is going the right way and the fact he has gone well on right handed tracks in his previous 3 runs, I do feel this exeter track coupled with the extra furlong will have him improving again, on the formbook he may have a bit to find with Ammunition on my calculations and that horse who won this 12 months ago is sure to be amongst the finishers again, But I do believe this horse can bridge the gap as he is going the right way and has a lot in favour. Mortimers Cross has decent form but isnt certain to stay this trip as he looked to have improved for the drop back last time. Upham Atom who stayed on well the other day to land a pot is respected, but for me Clash duff has the improvement to beat him and deny Amunation a repeat in this handicap.

4.50 Newcastle - SAFARI ADVENTOURS 1pt Win @ 16-1 (LADS)
I cant miss the chance to back Lucinda Russell Safari Adventours with the hope he finds his feet again over this stiffish 20F which should suit him to te ground. The horse has had a torrid time recently and dropped to a nice handicapping mark in the process. The last two runs over 16F I would say is a little on the sharp side for the horse these days and his best form have been over 20F in the past so a return to this trip could see him bounce back to form as his last 3 runs have been over 24,16,16 in which they have decided to stay clear of 20F races and that has meant since the 19F run at Doncaster he has dropped a stone in the process. The run back in November at Kelso was a decent effort and the other back in Wetherby would have him clear of these at today weights, He gets a mountain of weight from trustan times who could be yet another novice with a false handicap mark (been quite a few recently) and dancing art who is a horse that has solid course form, however at the price I will take a chance with Safari Adventours who is due another win for a ayard that does well with handicap chasers


One race rom Southwell tomorrow which I will do in the morning. Best of luck all

Great start Chief, you know your jumpers!
Not so sure that Colour Guard has beaten much though, very well done again!

Fantastic WC, the forum is in great hands

Well done WC!

6.00 Kempton – TRUE TO FORM 1pt win @ 3-1 (General)

The Mark Johnston horse License to till has returned to the UK having shown little abroad recently and on his return the yard have found him a decent little class 2 handicap to get his teeth into and on the book he has a great chance despite the fact he has to give weight away to all his rivals. The last time we saw him on these shores he was running well at lingfield in a similar type of race behind Emerald Wilderness over 10F and the form of that race would have him involved in the finish of this race tonight. His wellbeing is the only factor of concern as the transformation from Lingfield to Kempton doesn’t worry me due to the fact the horse ran well on his only start at this track. He may well be the most exposed runner in the field but he is also the only horse to have recorded a victory at this level. The big danger is the quickly turned out True to form who ran well over a mile on Saturday, this trip should suit him having gone well over this 10 furlongs before and the yard turning him out quickly is very eye catching as his record reads 3 wins and a placed effort when turned out within a week of last run. The fact the horse has everything in favor from that run over this 10F bar the better class of race suggests he should be backed rather than License to till who is running for first time since his stint abroad. There is very little between them at the weights in terms of ability under today’s conditions, Just True to form deserves to be shorter as he has less of a question mark over his head and I feel he can take this on first run in a class 2 Handicap.


3.30 Fontwell – REBEL MELODY 2pt win @ 11-4 (General)

Course winner Rebel Melody has been shaping well recently and looks like he is ready to strike with the drying ground very much in his favor and on ability he is better than these if in the right frame of mind as he is now 11yo. However his record in March suggests this is his time of year to catch him and the jockey’s 10lbs claim takes him down to a feather weight for this handicap today so he is very much well in at the weights today. His recent good efforts have been under Noel Fehily so the fact he has 10lbs further of his back today means he has been dropped further in as the handicapper has eased him a further 1lb for a 3rd at Hereford on soft ground. The horse sees this 26F out well as all his career wins have come over 26F and the level of form he has shown on drying good to soft going suggest it should be foot perfect for him today, the short 42 day absence is a positive and the Charlie Mann yard are in good order at the moment which is coupled in nicely with the fact the yard does very well in handicap chases at this track. The Venetia Williams and Evan Williams yard are in good form and Plunkett is a danger if staying the trip well, but I do think Rebel Melody can bounce back to form here.

Had a feeling you might select Rebel Melody in the 3.30. Going to oppose you with an 8 year old maiden but very lightly raced at 5 and 6; by far his better run was over this 27F a few runs back and he will also appreciate the slightly better going (4mm rain this morning, so only soft now) and off a career low 86 with Paddy Brennan booked off his lowest riding weight. I think this could be his day. Venetia's surely has too much to do off 119 but could also enjoy the longer trip.

So 2pt win Current Climate at 5/1 on here for me. GL.

True to form for the chief, another good winner, shame you got the stakes the wrong way around! Well done WC.

U was right Trusty, Well done.

5.00 Southwell MONSIEUR JAMIE 2pt Win @ 16-1 (365)

My only bet of the day is Monsieur Jamie who should be suited to this return to fibresand today in a handicap in which Scott Dixon has a strong hand. However I think the Jenkins yard are likely to spoil the party with this course specialist who finished last at Wolves last time in which he was returning after a short break from racing having ran well 3 times in a row at Southwell, The handicapper has dropped him back down in the weights and he returns to Southwelll just 2lbs higher then when last winning on the all weather. The Re-introduction of the jockey who broke his maiden tag is eye catching and the horse who is one of the least exposed runners in this field can progress further under these conditions and looks overpriced at 16-1 I feel.The only two efforts at this track where he didnt run his race he didnt trap well and that was the reason Six Wives reversed the previous running with the horse who had previosuly put him in her place and is much better weighted with that rival based on his win over course & Distance, Yet Monsieur Jamie is over twice the price and if he bounces out well tomorrow I feel he could well be hard to peg back.

Best of luck all

4.05 Sandown - Semi Colon 2pt win @ 5-1 (LADS & BOILS)

Heathcote looks like he has a handicap in him, but im not sure if the 10yo is capable of seeing off a few unexposed types in this handicap today but at a biggish price he is worth a each-way bet I feel, However semi Colon I feel has a race in her and wasnt far off at kempton last weekend in a similiar type of race to this in which she finished 4th and a reproduction of that effort she should go close in this handicap for Nicky Henderson and Barry Gergahty as its been a quiet week for the stable this week they could well start of the next 8 days well with this horse here today. The ground is perfect for her and she is certain to pick up one of these hurdle races with much in her favour after catching the eye earlier on in the season. Against her today Kasbadali for the inform yardof Oliver Sherwood should also go well after winning well on all weather in one of those bumper races while the cold snap hit, he is a horse I quite like and will do well over fences I feel next season or throughout the upcoming summer as he handles decent racing ground well. The trip today maybe the bare minimum the horse wants having shaped with much promise over 3M at newbury last year behind Sivola De Sivola and that looks decent handicapping form and I think he will go well. This looks on the short side for the top weighted Hawkes Point and I can see him being off his feet in this handicap with Quinte De Chartlet taking them along at a clip. Bobcatbilly has had some tough tasks over hurdles so far but failed in a novice handicap hurdle last time and I feel this is tougher.   

6.50 Wolverhampton - BRUNSTON 2pt win @ 4-1 (Boils)

William Haigh and Queen of Denmark are both unexposed with the former back tackling this longer trip after successfully dropping to a mile in good fashion last time at Southwell. He returns to the track where he won over 12F needing more I feel to defy the higher handicap mark tonight of 12lbs higher and that for me could see his winning run coming to an end here. The latter however is the biggest danger having been sent of a warm order to beat Brunston last time over this course and distance in which she didnt have any excuses having been given a decent position in which to strike off after a decent gallop was set by Pertemps Network who was wel beaten in the end, however there was no suggestion that she was unlucky and Brunston despite showing a tendency to hang left soon passed her and went on to win nicely. He should confirm that form here tonight I feel and has some decent speed figures over 12F to call upon. Layline is another who gets the trip and comes into he equation as a danger with Shane Kelly continuing to be booked for the ride, the last effort was a below par effort and maybe a return left handed will see him in better light, but he is best at Lingfield so I feel he may just be beaten here.

Best of luck all and hopefully I will at least get a run for my money today as Monsieur Jamie refused to do so. Shame as Six Wives was my next best in the race, jut felt MJ had the beating on past meeting. Oh well onwards and upwards.

Well I am going to put my winner up first!

I cannot help but back El Dancer in the Imperial Cup. Two years ago he carried top weight of 11-8 when ridden by Geraghty and finished mid pack. Today he is off virtual bottom weight of 10-2 and is reunited with Dominic Elsworth who has ridden him only twice, finishing 2nd and 1st.

I am not sure what went wrong with this horse but clearly the long break was because of a problem and when he came back to chasing at the end of last year after two runs they quickly put him back over hurdles. I am not claiming that Lucy Wadham is Jimmy Fitgerald re-incarnated but those last two runs under a conditional jock have got the mark down to a level that is a stand-out.

So let's hope that El Dancer can become the second winner for Lucy who has a good record in the race (1/2/9 last 10 years) and at around 90/1 on here, 66/1 on the books, well worth a point e/w. GL.

2.20 Wolverhampton ELSHABAKIYA 1pt win @ 6-1 (General) 

Belgium Bill has the best piece of form coming into this race when finishing 1L behind Songcraft at Meydan not so long ago, however this is a far cry from the 10F he contested that day and even though he has the booking of Paul Hannagan for George Baker I am going to pass him over in this listed event today. Night Lilly Won a decent handicap latest and she is respected in this while Clockmaker has top course and distance form and is likely to give his running as well. However my choice is Elshabiyka for the Clive Britten yard as she is useful at this level and is a 7F horse and ran with much credit over 6F in similiar type of event to this back in November at Lingfield behind docofthebay, She should improve for this step back up to seven furlongs and should be very much ready to go on first run for over 100 Days. She is still a maiden but has had some tough asks in her 11 runs contesting 4 group races and 5 listed races. Brett Doyle has a good record for Clive Britten who does well in these types of races.

2.40 Sandown QHILIMAR 1pt @ 13-2 (365 & Lads)

On past form Richard Sundance would have solid claims in this race on his best form from the past 2 years but the horse has seemly regressed since running well at Cheltenham in some big race handicap, however he does stay this trip well and certainly handles the going so there is everychance that he could bounce back to form in this handicap today and at 10-1 in some places he shouldn't be readily discounnted after running well here last time out behind Midnight Appeal. Marty's Mission has plenty in favour and seems to be as good as ever and finished in front of Richard Sundance in the same race, the return of Ruby Walsh is likely to help him in his assistance to confirm that running today and there should be no reason why he cant confirm the running here today. Charlie Longsdon yard havent been right recently and his Qhilmar maybe can be forgiven his run last time out at Ascot against better class of rivals. He runs well at this track and goes well for his handler today and hopefully he is back to his best form. Song Sung Blue returned in good form last time over shorter but this is tougher and he has to carry top weight as well.

More to come. Went out last night so don all studying this morning. Got my bets on

4.00 Ayr - PROSECCO 1pt win @ 6-1 (General)

The old boy Polar Gunner has a chance in this handicap if he can still produce the level of form he showed back in 2010 at the age of 15yo and the same applies to Nelson Du Roncery who won a easier race last time out over hurdles and now return to handicap chases and the hope is that he can get back to winning ways over fences. However Prosecco has strong claims in this race today having ran over further last time out over 20 furlongs and should spperciate the drop back to 2M today around a track that suits him well.The handicap mark of 110 should be within his grasp here today as at 10yo he should be in his prime as a handicap chaser. The ground today should be ideal with plenty of cut.

4.50 Chepstow - BUFFALO BOB 1pt win @ 4-1 365 & VC

Buffalo Bob should go well in this handicap today and looks the most solid option, the ground and trip are ideal and he had a confidence booster two runs back and can be forgiven his effort here last time in a better rac in which he was slightly outpaced when the race started to kick on behindOh crick. The longer trip today should help him and even though he was a fortunate winner the time before at Ayr he still has a good chance at the weights and Jason maguire booked for the ride is yet another positive for the horse. Plein PouVoir is on a winning mark, whilie the 12yo Massini Sunset has the ability to win a handicap such as this but is finding it hard to refind his form of old.

3.40 Stratford handicap chase class 3

Otage de Biron sets the mark to be aimed at on my ratings with the most in comparison with the traits needed in this race today and his score of 127 which I have him running too is the score that they will need to beat and I believe Gentleman Anshan & Civil Disobedience are both potentially better horses on form in which the former has already proven to have decent enough level to win this at the weights today when winning over 20 furlongs at Southwell back in May 2011. The time since he has ran well below that ability over 3M at Ludlow and the last run back in November at Doncaster over 19 Furlongs, There is some Stamina doubts with the horse as he had failed to run anywhere near his best over 3 miles twice now and that recent run at Ludlow was under similar circumstances as today’s race and I have no reason to believe this 8yo by Anshan will complete 3 Miles well enough to come out on top. The Latter Civil Disobedience should very much take the beating in this if his jumping holds up as he was all set to score when falling at Warwick last time out in a race won by the average Lively Baron. However this pointer has proven in the past to be very accomplished over fences and has the ability and improvement in him to win a handicap such as this. All in all it’s quite a trappy affair so the top weighted unexposed pointers look to be the answer to this. The change back to Paul Maloney from Nick Schofield should help to assist his jumping despite the 0-2 record on the horse of today’s pilot but he is a lot more progressed horse over fences then he was over hurdles, the shape nature of the track should suit him as well and the standard of this class 3 is no stronger then the novice event he contested last time, So I expect him to give a bold bid in this handicap today.


Selection – Civil Disobedience 1pt win  @ 10-3 (general)


4.10 Stratford handicap hurdle class 3


J’Adhere & Tayarat are very closely matched on recent running in a handicap hurdle at Ludlow and have much in their favor to reproduce that kind of run in this handicap today and both should go well. The weights suggest J’Adhere should be able to come out on top out of those two and Tim Vaughan runner is taken to finish in front of his conqueror this time around. Against them both Aviso & Marcus Antonius are unexposed types who could prove to be better handicappers in time and shouldn’t be readily discounted, while Drumshambo brings decent handicapping form of his own into the mix. The first mentioned Aviso should like this track having ran well when winning at Warwick last time out under Nathan Adams, however he has the returning Lee Stephens to the saddle who won on him the time before as he bids to land the hat-rick in this better class of race, the only concern is the strength of that race last time out as it was a poor race but the way he did it was quite striking and he is potentially still well treated off this 9lbs higher mark. Marcus Antonius steps into handicapping company for the first time and115 isn’t a mark that can’t be won off I feel, On the level of form he has shown I do think he may be less well treated then Aviso, the course, ground and trip are no concerns for him either and the experience handling of Paul Maloney booked after Noel Fehily rode him to victory last time shouldn’t be seen as a major negative, even though it looks like a spare he has just picked up.


Selection – Aviso 1pt win @ 9-1 (SJ)

Well thought out well chief.
Im on these 3.
JLT. 2.40 Hold On Julio....
               Zarrafakt....
               Fruity o rooney
JLT Chase winners fit the Cheltenham handicap chase stereotype perfectly, with the last twelve all being
aged 7-10, and all bar Bensalem last year carrying no more than 10-12 (all were in the handicap proper
though).
Proven stamina is unsurprisingly a prerequisite in these fiercely contested, truly run affairs, and all bar
two of the last ten winners had already won over three miles or further. Bensalem was an exception
again last year, having only been second (twice) at the trip. Interesting.

Enjoying your thread, well thought out and profitable. good luck.

Best of luck seeyouthen

1.50 Southwell class 4 6F Handicap

There is plenty of pace on in this sprint handicap with several confirmed pace setters and that could well play into the hands of Hatta Stream who has the ability to win of this mark of 77 which is 1lb lower then his highest winning mark and on recent pollytrack efforts he looks to retain his ability. The change to fibresand looks likely to suit with the sire having a decent % of offsprings that have won on this surface and the change of jockey to Simon Pearce for the first time in quite a while is eye catching as he has ridden the horse to two victories in the past and he could well go well with th pace to aim at. however in a tight looking handicap Close to the edge is likely to have the run of the race as well with plenty of pace around her draw and is at least proven under the conditions, she has tried 5, 6 & 7 furlongs on her last 3 tries and her best effort out of those 3 was under David Probert over 6 Furlongs, so with Shane Kelly booked for the ride today as he rode on the two other occassions maybe she has the right trip under her preferred jockey today. At 10-1 she looks a little overpriced and I think can overcome the inferior rating I have her down under, as she comes out 4th best, But Joe Le Taxi I think wont have the ideal run of the race but with t low weight and inform trainer I expect him to run his race here.

Ratings - Top 5 - Joe Le Taxi 96, Hatta Stream 96, Suddenly Susan 95, Close to the edge 94, Caldercruix 94.

Selection - Close to the Edge 1pt e/w @ 10-1 (365)

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1 (Class1)

Sizing Europe seems to be as good as ever and with no real pacemaker in this graded affair he could easily quicken nicely of a moderate pace in the firing line to land this yet again. The horse is now 10yo and as good as ever and has already slammed Big Zeb & Kauto Stone this season and on a track with ground in his favour he is as good as ever and likely to take all the beating and the odds reflect that. I have him around 8lbs clear of his nearest rival in this race and with hindsight and the way the race is likely to pan out he is a better odds on shot then Hurricane Fly who was beaten on day one, but I dont really like odds on shots in such competitive championship races.

Finan's Rainbow is his closest rival and looks a much better 5-1 shot then Big Zeb in my view who was put in his place by Sizing Europe. The Nicky Henderson runner should also be suited to the way the race will be panned out as he will be suited to being up in the firing line and in a position to kick with that cruising speed of his coming into play, whether or not he has more improvement in him then I think he has is to be seen as I have him calculated as just falling short of Sizng Europe but at 5-1 he is my each-way shot in the feature race.

Rated - Sizing Europe 173, Finan's Rainbow 165, Big Zeb 161, Kauto Stone 158, Gauvain 155, Wishfall Thinking 151, Realt Dubh 147

Selection - Finan's Rainbow 1pt e/w @ 5-1 (Woral)