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Great ride by Lordan but a very disappointing Derby - not far off Serpentine levels.
The massive front running bias ruined the whole meeting really - so much for the really long straight making it a real leveller. The 3/1 for the Leger has gone but even 5/2 with perhaps a stakes saver on Tennessee Stud at 10/1 might not be the worse investment. Stanhope Gardens ran pretty well before just running out of steam in the last half furlong and presumably he goes for the Eclipse next but the older 10f horses look a class above.. The other eye catcher was New Ground who was widest of all the whole way and didn’t settle. He also hung badly on the camber but still made up ground. Doubt he’ll be aimed at the Leger but a soft ground Arc might be up his alley. |
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Field Of Gold has only edged out a fraction (6/5 from 5/6 at best); bookies know he'd beat Ruling Court in the SJP unless the heavens open. If so, neither would win, I think; Henri Matisse would be the main beneficiary on inclement weather.
But, no advantage to be gained backing now given the skinny prices eg either could do a Kyprios or the weather could intervene. The prices for The Eclipse are not generous either. It's difficult to string along a few trebles for Royal Ascot, Sandown, The Curragh (near impossible given the possible switcheroo by AOB), Juddmonte Int and King George (Kempton). |
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tennesee stud for me as well for leger
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tennesee stud for me as well for leger
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Thanks for your views Uncle New Ground has been penciled in for the German Derby along with Lazy Griff.
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The thing is Impossible some races aren’t priced up, so that makes it double difficult as my other fancies are shortening and the ones not priced will go off short.
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Delashay
Why didn’t you fancy it either Kincsem? Was it purely an odds thing? I think I have had only three bets since Betfair tried to defraud me of Euro 200 I had given them just before the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. It took 255 days to get my money back. My choice, Torquator Tasso, had been available at odds averaging 120s. My usual way to pick a horse in a big race is to give it 3,2,1 points for speed, distance, pedigree, ground. (3 for best) I get a short list of possibles and go into them in detail. I did not do that here. The two favourites would not stay so I looked for a certain stayer with some form and a big price. I have little interest in short priced horses. Motto - "When I win I want to get paid" (paid big) |
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I get that Kincsem but Lambourn was 10/1 or 12/1 - was it not big enough? Was tipped loads yesterday and shortened more because of the withdrawal of Ruling Court.
Glad that you got your money back, that’s unbelievable but not surprising! Torquator must still hurt. Only recall two 50/1 winners. |
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I was a bit doubtful that Lambourn would stay as well as Lazy Griff.
Lambourn's dam Gossamer Wings ran 14 times: 1x7f; 5x6f; 8x5f The damsire was 18th in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby but won at 1 1/8 The second dam ran mostly at a mile. |
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I do not care much for tipped horses.
A tipped horse is a horse that is overbet and the odds are lower that the chance. The people who are tipping are not betting. There is groupthink - they recommend what everyone expects them to recommend. People are complaining about the ride Ryan Moore gave Delacroix. Delacroix's sire Dubawi was a miler and is not a sire of middle-distance horses. Delacroix's dam Tepin was a miler. That is much the same as bloodstock agents who buy horses with owners money. They risk nothing and get a commission so the more they spend the more they make. |
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New Ground ran a very good race for 4th from a bad draw.
He did not settle but was still closing at the finish. The inbreeding in his ancestors is different from most Sadler's Wells (sire) producing two daughters Buckpasser (sire) producing two daughters Shirley Heights (sire) producing a son and daughter Lyphard (sire) producing a son and daughter High Line (sire) producing two daughters The female offspring (daughters) are needed In most modern pedigrees what you find is an excess (two or more sons = slow runner) of duplicated sire ancestors |
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I backed Lambourn (coincidentally a horsey town) at 18 here for £3. Then lay him for 16. I did not back him when he showed the rest a clean pair of heels at the start.
Looking back I should have lay Delacroix in-running after 3f. He'd no chance after being shuffled back trying to get a better position from an awkward draw. I'm happy for Lordan. He showed enterprise and rode others to sleep. But, I do think Lambourn is an above average Derby winner. I'm very surprised he's 4/5 for the Irish equivalent. I've a feeling he might not turn up either; Coolmore will try to win with one of their other Epsom charges eg Delacroix or The Lion In Winter. Either winning = massive stud fee boost. |
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AOB has hinted Lambourn is most likely The Curragh bound; Delacroix will be down in trip to 10f; The Lion In Winter is a miler.
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Thanks for explaining Kincsem and the info re: breeding. I’m surprised you felt that Lambourn wouldn’t stay. He was one that I was certain would.
They were very confident about New Ground getting the trip because of his pedigree. I can’t fathom why he pulls so hard, first time out this year behind Caulificar he settled beautifully. Yesterday he was even getting the hurry up from the car tracking them all down! Thought the jock should have got off and walked him. If you re read the interview with his trainer he mentioned the stamina doubts about Delacroix, eg having Tepin in there. You have layer him as you said you would Impossible before the start. I asked if a sleight of hand had been played on us all (on the outside) and yes I believe that it was via the flip flopping and market drifts and moves between Delacroix and the Lion In Winter. I don’t believe one bit that either was ever truly fancied by those on the inside. When O’Biden led him in the parade that was also a sign. A big one. Never seen that. As for Lordan impossible he showed no initiative, he just did what he was told. He cowered out from trying to win the oaks the day before. That was Moore’s and the script almost didn’t play out as expected. Any other jockey would have tried more and not gone so quick to set it up for a string stayer. The derby was a thanks for all the work he’s done and they were assisted by the bias for front runners. As pointed out by a couple - Moore hasn’t ridden many of their Derby winners, the public were played big time. |
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Someone I was watching the derby with asked if New Groynd had been broken in! [:happy:
![]() ![]() I could see their point and surely he needs a different bit as that one he didn’t like. There’s a massive engine in there if only it could be harnessed. |
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'Delashay', it was in ATR and Sporting Life. AOB: "I suppose we learned that Colin's horse could be a miler - was probably half a mile out of his ground - and I suppose it's very possible Ryan's horse is a mile and a quarter horse...."
I'm waiting to see if Pride Of Aras (14/1) and possibly Ruling Court (16/1, if bypassing SJP) would go for the Irish Derby on 29th June. |
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the exchange betting in the last week or so on the derby with obriens horse has been shocking, this is one post
ut up last week on horse racing thread. delacroix drifted to around 8/1 on here last week , and lambourn im 90% certain was around 40s |
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I don’t study the betting John but I’d not like to hear the word genius for either Comb over or pasty face!
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I don’t disbelieve it for one second. Neither can I give any credit to jobs worth for winning a Derby after the public was rope a doped by the bs that comes with these.
There’s a saying it’s just not cricket and there’s a right and wrong way of doing things. That’s not the way true sportsmen behave. You got the best, prove it without all the hoodwinking . Be like Floyd Money Mayweather say you’re the best and take them all on. |
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agree , they really have spoilt the wonderful racing from the 70s that i fell in love with , oh yes theyve won so man y derbies but francesca fair play said yesterday, theyve had 101 bloody runners ,
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The winner could have been backed - all the evidence was there eg money, form and stamina. What very few had not contemplated was the adverse draws of the major players; the withdrawal of Ruling Court; the capitulation of Delacroix so early in the race; below par run of Pride Of Aras; the early pace adopted by the winner.
But, I do not think it was an above average Derby winner. |
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The winner looked a boat at Chester you were backing the Lion thinking he’d come on. Delacroix was a NON TRYER!
I’ll say it. He was alongside New Ground with T Stud on the rail, there was no bump and he moved behind NG - THEY both ran on he didn’t AT all it was far too early to capitulate! Was never there trying and no one will openly say that. |
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personally i think he might be very good, a generous maybe
, but we need these horses running in the irish derby, king george etc , it was great when derby winners were taking on the best older horses in the kg , but again coolmore has imo destroyed the king george , and theyve made a mockery of the guineas treating it as a prep run, classic races should be the majors of the sport , |
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Makes a mockery of our great race.
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John you back non runner after nonrunner I wish you luck with that one.
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Wink wink
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Pride of Harris won a duff Dante was hard fit for it. You were warned.
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actually ive backed another non runner, KRYPIOS IN NEXT WEEK GOLD CUP
, BUT IM HAMMERING EVERYTHING ON LAKE VICTORIA IN THE CORONATION STAKES , love royal ascot ![]() |
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Don’t back Lambourn for the Leger, they have Puppet Master.
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And more games to play….
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What happened to Damysus. Gosden's horse ran well in the Dante, 12s last matched here ante post, 26 on the day of the race...
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It was like watching Serpentine again. So happy got Lordan.
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Paul I hope you played off on the good odds you got for Damysus and I’m glad you enjoyed the thread. Tried to bring some life back here. I enjoyed all those that engaged.
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Damysus , quite excited pre start . It looked like a decent crossover place was being aimed at , but got stuck 3 wide pulling like a train = Race over . If you watch the first race , that strip of ground on the inside was the place to be , Spiritual hardly left a print . Easy in hidsight mind .
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That was odd that he did pull as hadn’t before, the occasion maybe and good spot re the ground. I liked Damysus but not at 10’s and with the Dante doubts it felt short again.
I wasn’t as you’ll know going to have a bet in the race but got sucked in by TS who was over priced and the supp of New Ground who was my dark horse for the Jockey Club. Because he hadn’t won this year I expected him to be big big odds for that. The trainer only has 60 horses but his strike record is good and his father passed recently. I felt that he’d been given a good one because maybe of his father’s ill health. Like Frankel and Cecil. His dad was. If in French racing from what I gather. Disappointed that they’ll go for the German Derby potentially, I’d recommend anyone with a recording to watch past the line in the Derby, the horse couldn’t be pulled up and was still pulling for its head after a mile and half! Unbelievable! |