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Nightwalker (5); Green Storm (8); Sea Scout (18); Delacroix (14); Tuscan Hill (6);
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Ryan takes into account the draw and can leave it until as late as as 1pm today
You'd think he'd choose the best one - draw would be a secondary consideration. So either there is no standout colt - or they are just messing around. |
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draw:
1 Rogue Impact 2 Stanhope Gardens 3 Lazy Griff 4 Midak 5 Nightwalker 6 Tuscan Hills 7 Ruling Court 8 Green Storm 9 Nightime Dancer 10 Lambourn 11 Tornado Alert 12 Tennessee Stud 13 Al Wasl Storm 14 Delacroix 15 Damysus 16 Pride Of Arras 17 New Ground 18 Sea Scout 19 The Lion In Winter |
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Thoughts? Without knowing what he rides…
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Ruling Court (7); Lazy Griff (3); The Lion In Winter (9); Rogue Impact (1);
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The Lion In Winter is in stall 19. I think Moore will choose Delacroix now; 19 he might as well stay at home, I think.
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if draw is a consideration for moore then that rules out the lion
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Dante 1st and 2nd in a sandwich between Delacroix and the Lion!
Ruling Court slashed to 3’s with the sponsor joint fav with Delacroix now. |
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I think Ruling Court (7) and Lambourn (10) have the best draws. The other major players eg Delacroix (14), Damysus (15), Pride Of Aras (16) and The Lion In Winter (19) have fared badly; New Ground (French) has drawn (17).
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draw:
1 Rogue Impact. 250/1 2 Stanhope Gardens. 16/1 3 Lazy Griff 150/1 4 Midak 14/1 5 Nightwalker 33/1 6 Tuscan Hills [80/1 7 Ruling Court 4/1 8 Green Storm 250/1 9 Nightime Dancer 200/1 10 Lambourn 14/1 11 Tornado Alert 33/1 12 Tennessee Stud 66/1 13 Al Wasl Storm 150/1 14 Delacroix 3/1 15 Damysus 14/1 16 Pride Of Arras 5/1 17 New Ground 50/1 18 Sea Scout 150/1 19 The Lion In Winter 8/1 |
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The draw in relation to odds - anyone recall having 3 @ triple figure odds there might well be more come the day.
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* Sorry 6 @ triple digits
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i do think it's very poor that a trainer of such standing is unable to tell the public which of his horses are running and who will ride when it's only 3 or 4 days before the race
Agreed, but that's what happens when a yard has so many to choose from. It's that final piece of work that's so important to them. And largely the reason for their runners being punted on the day. |
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Despite the high draw sandwich neither Pride of Arras or Damysus have been shunted out, nor New Ground for that matter.
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Aren’t joes and Lads one now?
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Moore on Dela
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how many more derby winners would Lester have had if he could wait for the draw and skip mounts etc
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I think Coolmore will have their work cut out. I think Moore will be forward with Delacroix at the off. If he stays he'll wind unless Ruling Court tracks him and stays just as well; TLIW and Lambourn will try and get a handy position midway coming towards Tattenham Corner. Otherwise, it's doom for TLIW
If TLIW wins Coolmore will be dishing out their superlatives eg "he's as good as City Of Troy". And, off to stud. |
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I doubt Piggott would've given much consideration to the draw. Probably the most overrated factor concerning this race. How many horses could you confidently say were beaten by the draw? The only beaten horse who ought to have won was Dancing Brave, and whatever the jockey apologists say about that it was a piss poor ride.
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So you’re on Delacroix figgis despite the high draw?
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Impossible you now think the classless Delacroix will win? If he stays? You were going to lay him on the back of thinking that he won’t.
A jockey decision really has such an effect on people? I mean the Lion ran like a mule last time out, was there a doubt about this? |
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I mean I'm sure Piggott would've given great consideration to the draw as in how to ride the race and getting his favoured position. I doubt it would've been an influence on which horse to pick, unless he really didn't have much of a fancy.
Delashay, yes I really don't care about the draw in the Derby. Might not stop me moaning about it though if mine is beaten a short head ![]() |
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Fair play! Or blocked it it’s run…. lotsof horses in at odds that will need to be dodged and all the favoured ones at the head of the market from the Dante around each other with the exception of Rulling Court .
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Being wide could even be an advantage to let the wheat and chaff sort themselves ahead of them. Who’ll track Ryan from Rosa, James, Aleixis, Dylan …. TBC!
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As long as it's a proper pace, which it is most of the time, the draw will have little relevance.
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Bit of rain expected it seems.Unless the going undertakes a big change,
no excuses from stall 7 for Ruling Court. |
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For Paul :
Tom Marquand sat on Nightwalker for the first time on the Al Bahathri Polytrack just after 9.20am but it was Damysus who was the pick of John and Thady Gosden's two Betfred Derby contenders. David Milnes |
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…. The chestnut son of Frankel appeared full of running at the end of his exercise and could not be in better shape for Saturday.
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Thanks for that , topped up a bit yesterday . My only worry is if the Dante was really a dog of a race .
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Well we’ll see but he’s named to win a Derby! It’s part of the reason that I looked at him closely for the Sandown trial and because Gosden likes it there and that race.
My one worry is that O’Briien has used horses not entered in the Derby and ran in two of the trials. Swagman showed up to give him a line to the Sandown race then also The Dante through Damysus His other Horse Stay True ran at Lingers. They might look at this in future as to whether only Derby entries can run in a trial. It seems slightly unfair that he has form lines now on horses that were never thought of taking part. He even went on to say that given a clear run and not pulling that the Lion would have been a close up third. Non of us believe that, but his Delacroix has gone the old route and stayed away from all the opposition. At least we have fornlines to others from last year and that leaves it open to how much improvement he’s made, rating guys will tell you. On that form you’d wonder if he screams Derby winner having being beaten more than once. Which comes back to the Dante and why I felt the bookies had a lot of eggs in one basket within the betting. |
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'Delashay', Delacroix needs to get a good position early and conserve energy otherwise he might be caught out when stamina truly comes into play. If so, he'd be outrun by Lambourn, Damysus, Ruling Court or TLIW if any of these is in close proximity at the 2f marker.
Which would you have at the 2f marker, Delacroix, Pride Of Aras, Lambourn or Damysus? And, if TLIW and Ruling Court at the same marker? Personally, it will not be Delacroix (Dubawi/lacking class). |
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At one mile two furlongs
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Yep, 2f from the post.
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looks very heavy rain at times on Saturday
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Another dimension that adds interest to me for this year's Derby is the forecast of the striding analysts. I'm all for as much information as possible out there, whether people choose to use it or not, so I welcome this extra data. I'm sure this kind of info can be useful if used very selectively, but that's the same with speed figures or any other kind of analysis tool. In most situations I think all it does is reinforce conclusions that you've probably already come to. Such as, horse A. who looks an iffy stayer also strides like an unlikely stayer. That said, it might sway me if I was very undecided about a horse's stamina.
What I do question though is when it is used to cast doubts on a horse's stamina who otherwise has looked a very probable stayer. Or last year when we were told before the Commonwealth Cup that Inisherin didn't stride like a typical sprinter. Well who cares when he had already posted a Gp1 time performance over 6f at Haydock? This year I reckon Desert Flower and, even more so, Delacroix have looked like probable stayers on the racecourse. The striding analysts have red flagged both runners. If both of them bomb out looking like non stayers I might be converted, but at the moment I'm highly sceptical. |
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1 (4)
Runner Jacket 1. Hotazhell 2/1J Shane Foley Mrs John Harrington 2 95 107 96 109 – Took keen hold, prominent, steadied and in touch with leaders after 3f, pushed along and went second under 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, pushed out towards finish, cosily (op 11/4 tchd 3/1) 2 (2) ¾ Runner Jacket 3. Tennessee Stud (IRE) 9/1 Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien 2 95 – 94 107 – Prominent, soon went second, lost second under 2f out, ran on and went second again inside final 110yds (op 13/2 tchd 6/1) 3 (5) ½ [1¼] Runner Jacket 5. Windlord 2/1J W J Lee Andrew Balding 2 95 93 93 106 – Held up in rear, headway and switched left under 2f out, ran on and went third towards finish (op 9/4) 4 (3) ½ [1¾] Runner Jacket 4. Trinity College (IRE) 18/5 Wayne Lordan A P O'Brien 2 95 b – 92 105 – Led, headed inside final furlong, no extra final 110yds (op 3/1 tchd 5/2) 5 (1) 6 [7¾] Runner Jacket 2. Lambourn (IRE) 7/1 Declan McDonogh A P O'Brien 2 95 b1 – 78 91 – In touch with leaders, outpaced under 2f out (tchd 9/1) |
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Impossible I think that many are forgetting the form lines here and have written off Tennessee because of his comeback run.
Why forgive Lion but not him @ 66/1 ? Lambourn nowhere but shorter odds, Windlord gives a formline to Damyasus and the Dante. Trinity College wasn’t beaten far in a Group 1 by dual Group Winner. If this is the way I had to pick horses I wouldn’t bother! ![]() Delacroix By Jack Haynes, reporter It has paid to side with Aidan O'Brien's runners in recent years and the draw and shubsequent jockey bookings has led me to favour Delacroix over his stablemate The Lion In Winter. |
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Hotazhell obviously gives the line straight to Delacroix and Stanhope Gardens. All much shorter.
I know form lines over different distances can be misleading but there’s often not much in it and it’s serves me well over the year. |
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Another slice from this article in the post this morning
'His price seems a bit bonkers' - why this horse can win the Betfred Derby Just a word on French raider New Ground, who was supplemented on Monday. There is quite a bit of rain forecast before and during racing at Epsom on Saturday, and this son of New Bay is one who would appreciate a deep surface. He’ll be better for the step up in trip too. From James Hill All said above in posts regarding the horses - about him winning in heavy at Saint Cloud over 10f at 2. So my selections are big prices, I laugh when the say Bar that’s where I’ll be in the Bar! ![]() |