prob not much bearing on future events but galen the horse city of troy beat on his debut was btn in a 7f maiden at the curragh last night

ancient wisdom will be 2nd fav  race day imo, and is a cracking eway bet now

You are prickly, aren't you? OK then. I presume the "St Ledger" is a race for bookkeepers? I'm aware of everything you've flagged, I just disagree with certain, and not all, elements. You've also raised points I never alluded to. I guess I'm looking for a horse in the Derby with an optimum trip of 10 1/2-12F and not 12F-14F. It's no race for stayers unless the going is really testing. Obviously, if you run a Guineas winner in the Derby who is highly unlikely to get the trip and/or can't switch off, it's unlikely to run well, which is why many don't attempt the double.

"A Derby type is a horse without the speed to be competitive in the 2000 Guineas and without the stamina to win the St Leger. The old saying "4th in the Guineas, 1st in the Derby" recognised this." - Fourth in the Guineas is "competitive".

"I did show that only 3 winners of the 2000 Guineas in 36 years (1988/2023) also won the Derby (33/3 is 11/1)." Slightly disingenuous. Like I said, many did not attempt the double. Those with prospects of staying have run well from limited sample size.

We shall agree to disagree.

The ratings firms will tell us that nearly every Derby winner improves to a new level on the day but I've never agreed with this. Sure, we've had the likes of Adayar, Wings Of Eagles and others whose form just boomed on the day but, for me, the majority of Derby winners had already shown form good enough. To catch the likes of Adayar you either have to be very lucky or back a load of runners, which isn't my style. Ambiente Friendly is the horse who has improved the most from 2 to 3, but without even further progression I can only see him placed in an average Derby.

There are only two runners left that I believe have already shown average Derby winning form, City Of Troy and Ancient Wisdom. I have talked about City Of Troy before and why I believed he was overrated, and while I still think he could win a Derby if he can repeat his best 2yo form and I am not going to start backing him now, especially at these kind of odds. Ancient Wisdom's reappearance was disappointing at the time, but he ran against a vastly improved 3yo. If Economics had recovered from that trial in time and they'd chosen to run I would have made him an odds chance as I think he could have won in the style of an above average Derby winner.

Even though well beaten I have Ancient Wisdom only 8lbs below his best. He was pulling hard early on in the Dante and Buick was battling to settle him. In the circumstances he finished off the race well, even accounting for the fact they were all slowing markedly late on. He's never been a tearaway before and I think the keenness can just be put down to being fresh first time out. Unlike COT I think he's certain to get the 12f. It's possible that AW has regressed from his 2yo days but it has to be too early to write him off and I can easily see him finding those 8lbs with that run behind him. He's the only runner I would even consider backing and I am doing so.

.

Well Figgis hope you invested at the weekend and caught one or both of the winners of the Curragh Classics.

any chance ryan riding los angelos seems to shorten every time i look

Still a few unknowns. Economics was the biggest one but he is not in the 5 day list so I am assuming he can no longer be supplemented. The next is the ground which is currently soft so that may mean a few more doubtful stayers won't run. Apart from a small interest in Ambiente Friendly (since laid off at a lower price) I have no fixed ideas and prefer to weigh up the rest at the overnight stage.
Ancient Wisdom, Bellum Justum and Dancing Gemini will probably be my alternatives if they run.

The Epsom ground is good/soft today, Tuesday.
The course dries quickly so it could be naything on race day, from soft to firm.
The only certainty is the word "good" will be in the going description.

I decided to have a look at the average winning distance of the sire and damsire of the runners in the race.
I am not convinced the AWD is an accurate measure of the sire's distance influence as he is bred to a mare population that ran at all distances.
The average distance of all flat races is about 9.3f so if the sire's AWD is 11.3f you can be sure his influence is much further.
My calculation of a sire with 11.3f AWD is 13.3f X 2 - 9.3f = 11.3f i.e, a sire of influence 13.3f and a dam population of 9.3f give his published AWD of 11.3f (13.3+9.3)/2


I came up with these

Sire = published AWD   
Damsire = his AWD
S/DS = a calculated AWD of sire AWD + 1/2 damsire AWD   
Dam = her best distance (my opinion)

S inf = my calculated sire AWD as described above
DS inf = my calculated Damsire AWD as described above
S/DS inf = the sire influence + 1/2 the damsire influence

"Everything is learned by comparison"
What are the numbers fro the 2024 Derby field, and what wer the numbers for previous Derby winners?
Some dams did not race, I did not look up the dam winning distance of most of the Derby winners, and AWD was missing for a few sires.

No___Name_____________[ Sire___DS___S/DS ]…..( Dam )……...[ S inf___DS inf___S/DS inf ]

16___Padesha_____________[9.0___9.3___9.1 ]…....( 8.0 )……........[ 8.7___9.3___8.9 ]
8____Diego Velazquez_____[ 10.4___6.9___9.2 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 11.5___4.5___9.2 ]
9____Euphoric____________[ 10.4___8.0___9.6 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 11.5___6.7___9.9 ]
12___Kamboo______________[ 8.8___11.3___9.6 ]..…..( nr )….….....[ 8.3___13.3___10.0]
1____Ambiente Friendly __[ 9.6___9.9___9.7 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 9.9___10.5___10.1 ]
14___Macduff_____________[ 11.3___7.2___9.9 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 13.3___5.1___10.6 ]
15___Mr Hampstead________[ 11.3___7.3___10 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 13.3___5.3___10.6 ]
2____Ancient Wisdom _____[ 9.5___11.2___10.1 ]…..( 12.0 )……......[ 9.7___13.1___10.8 ]
3____Bellum Justum ______[ 11.3___7.6___10.1 ]…..( 10.0 )……......[ 13.3___5.9___10.8 ]
19___Tabletalk___________[ 11.1___8.1___10.1 ]…....( nr )……......[ 12.9___6.9___10.9 ]
17___Portland____________[9.5___11.3___10.1 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 9.7___13.3___10.9 ]
10___God's Window________[ 9.5___12.3___10.4 ]…..( 12.0 )…….....[ 9.7___15.3___11.6 ]
4____City Of Troy _______[ 10.1___11.3___10.5 ]…..( 10.5 )….....[ 10.9___13.3___11.7 ]
11___Illinois ___________[ 11.3___9.2___10.6 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 13.3___9.1___11.9 ]
13___Los Angeles_________[ 11.0___9.8___10.6 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 12.7___10.3___11.9 ]
7____Deira Mile__________[ 11.1___9.9___10.7 ]…..( 11.0 )……......[ 12.9___10.5___12.1 ]
6____Dancing Gemini______[ 11.1___11.2___11.1 ]…..( 10.0 )…….....[ 12.9___13.1___13.0 ]
5____Dallas Star_________[ 11.6___11.4___11.5 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 13.9___13.5___13.8 ]
20___Voyage______________[ 11.7___11.3___11.6 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 14.1___13.3___13.8 ]
18___Sayedaty Sadaty_____[ 13.0___11.3___12.4 ]…..( 14.0 )…….....[ 16.7___13.3___15.6 ]

nr = non-runner


........................................................................................................................................

Derby winners - lowest stamina at top

Year___Winner__________[ Sire___DS___S/DS ]…..( Dam )…….....[ S inf___DS inf___S/DS inf ]

2009___Sea the Stars_______[ 9.4___8.3___9 ]…..( 12.0 )…….......[ 9.5___7.3___8.8 ]
1992___Dr Devious__________[ 8.0___11.6___9.2 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 6.7___13.9___9.1 ]
2015___Golden Horn_________[ 9.4___9.5___9.4 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 9.5___9.7___9.6 ]
1999___Oath________________[ 7.8___13.3___9.6 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 6.3___17.3___10.0 ]
2010___Workforce___________[ 9.0___11.4___9.8 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 8.7___13.5___10.3 ]
2018___Masar_______________[ 10.0___9.4___9.8 ]…..( 12.0 )…….......[ 10.7___9.5___10.3 ]
2019___Anthony Van Dyck____[ 11.3___6.8___9.8 ]…..( 6.0 )…….......[ 13.3___4.3___10.3 ]
2006___Sir Percy___________[ 8.7___12.1___9.8 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 8.1___14.9___10.4 ]
2004___North Light_________[ 9.2___11.3___9.9 ]…..( 20.0 )…….......[ 9.1___13.3___10.5 ]
1994___Erhaab______________[ 10.1___9.6___9.9 ]…..( 10.5 )…….......[ 10.9___9.9___10.6 ]
1997___Benny the Dip_______[ 11.0___8.0___10 ]…..( 8.5 )…….......[ 12.7___6.7___10.7 ]
2021___Adayar______________[ 10.4___9.5___10.1 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 11.5___9.7___10.9 ]
1996___Shaamit_____________[ 11.5___7.6___10.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.7___5.9___11.1 ]
2008___New Approach________[ 11.3___8.0___10.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___6.7___11.1 ]
2016___Harzand_____________[ 11.3___8.1___10.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___6.9___11.2 ]
2020___Serpentine__________[ 11.3___8.4___10.3 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___7.5___11.4 ]
2001___Galileo_____________[ 11.4___8.3___10.4 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.5___7.3___11.4 ]
2005___Motivator___________[ 11.9___8.2___10.7 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.5___7.1___12.0 ]
1998___High-Rise___________[ 9.8___12.4___10.7 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 10.3___15.5___12.0 ]
2014___Australia___________[ 11.3___9.4___10.7 ]…....( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___9.5___12.0 ]
1989___Nashwan_____________[ 10.5___11.3___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 11.7___13.3___12.2 ]
2023___Auguste Rodin_______[ 10.5___11.3___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 11.7___13.3___12.2 ]
1993___Commander in Chief__[ 10.6___11.2___10.8 ]…..( ??? )……......[ 11.9___13.1___12.3 ]
2022___Desert Crown________[ 12.3___7.8___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 15.3___6.3___12.3 ]
2013___Ruler of the World__[ 11.3___9.9___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___10.5___12.4 ]
2000___Sinndar_____________[ 9.8___13.1___10.9 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 10.3___16.9___12.5 ]
1995___Lammtarra___________[ 11.2___10.5___11 ]…....( ??? )…….......[ 13.1___11.7___12.6 ]
2017___Wings of Eagles_____[ 10.8___12.0___11.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 12.3___14.7___13.1 ]
2012___Camelot_____________[ 11.9___9.9___11.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.5___10.5___13.2 ]
1990___Quest for Fame______[ 11.3___11.2___11.3 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___13.1___13.2 ]
2003___Kris Kin____________[ 11.3___11.3___11.3 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___13.3___13.3 ]
2002___High Chaparral______[ 11.4___11.7___11.5 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.5___14.1___13.7 ]
1988___Kahyasi_____________[ 12.1___10.5___11.6 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.9___11.7___13.8 ]
2011___Pour Moi____________[ 11.9___11.7___11.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.5___14.1___14.4 ]
2007___Authorized__________[ 12.0___13.3___12.4 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.62___17.3___15.5 ]
1991___Generous____________[ 10.7___n/a___n/a ]…....( ??? )…….......[ 12.1___n/a___n/a ]



Note that Sea The Stars had a sire and damsire with low AWD but he had a dam that won at 12f, as had Masar.
North Light's dam won at 20f.

You may have heard a famous trainer say the best type of horse for the Derby is a 10f horse.
That came from a trainer who was part owner in the biggest stallion farm in Europe.
They can sell stallion services to mare owners more easily if they can convince them that the horse did not win a 12f Derby, it was a 10f Derby.

It looks like Los Angeles is being mentioned more and more as a likely Derby winner.
My aim has always been to back high priced horses as they pay more.
I want to looks at favourites in detail and see if they deserve favouritism.

Los Angeles won the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3) 10f (previously the Derrinstown).
These were the other races on the card, weight carried by the winner, furlongs, time against standard.

1:15 3yo+ Maiden ______________9-8____7f___slow 1.62   
1:50 3yo Maiden _______________9-8___12f___slow 0.66 (12.680s/furlong)
2:25 3yo Group 3 fillies ______9-2____8f___slow 5.62   
3:00 3yo+ Group 3 _____________9-9____8f___slow 1.96   
3:35 3yo Group 3 Derby Trial __9-5___10f___slow 1.42 (12.682s/furlong)
4:10 3yo+ Maiden fillies ______9-1___10f___slow 0.36 (12.576s/furlong)
4:45 4yo+ Handicap ____________9-4___10f___slow 2.57   
5:20 Handicap _________________9-12__12f___slow 2.41

You can see the 1:50 12f 3yo maiden winner ran fractionally faster than Los Angeles in his Derby trial.
Also the winner of the 4:10 fillies 10f maiden ran a bit faster than the Derby trial.

The Derby trial had only five runners, two of them Ballydoyle pacemakers.
It was a tight finish with the 5th only 2 1/4 lengths off the winner, and the pacemaker finished second.
To me, it was not an impressive winning performance.

An unusual feature is Los Angeles is inbred 3x3 to Kingmambo (the inbreeding produced two daughters) and he is also inbred 3x4 to Danehill (producing a son and daughter).
My hobby is pedigrees.  Over a hundred years ago it was accepted that close inbreeding is not good, with 3x4 or 4x3 the nearest advisable, and 3x3 too close.
A 3x3 inbreeding in a male runner is not a thing I would do, and if in a pedigree I would prefer if it produced a son and daughter, not two daughters as in Los Angeles.

Yes, there are winners with close inbreeding, but fewer than more remote inbreeding (4x4; 4x5; 5x4; 5x5 ...)

In my data these horses sired by Camelot, sire of Los Angeles, are inbred 3x3 or closer to Kingmambo.
Males: Beowulf; Brooklyn Boy; Hector De Maris; Knightflight (SAF); Los Angeles; Merlin The Wizard; Rocheux; Shuri; Zhang Fei.
Females: Be Happy; Bolleville; Cabo Real; Dazzling Sun; Happy Times; Lissadell; Lot Of Joy; Sanction.
There are five 100+ rated horses in those (incl Los Angeles)

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Zetland Stakes

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Zetland Stakes
Group 3 race
Location    Rowley Mile
Newmarket, England
Race type    Flat / Thoroughbred
Sponsor    Godolphin
Website    Newmarket
Race information
Distance    1m 2f (2,012 metres)
Surface    Turf
Track    Straight
Qualification    Two-year-olds
Weight    9 st 2 lb
Allowances
5 lb for fillies
3Penalties
5 lb for a Group 1 or 2 race win
3 lb for a Group 3 race win
Purse    £60,000 (2021)
1st: £34,026
Zetland Stakes
2023
Royal blue    Royal blue, orange disc, striped sleeves and cap    Violet, white quartered cap
Arabian Crown    Gasper De Lemos    Dallas Star
Previous years
2020-2011
2010-2001
2000-1991
1990-1988
The Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 flat horse race in Great Britain open to two-year-old horses. It is run on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket over a distance of 1 mile and 2 furlongs (2,012 metres), and it is scheduled to take place each year in October.

The event was classed at Listed level until it became an ungraded conditions race in 2007. It returned to Listed level in 2015.[1] It was previously run at Newmarket's last racing fixture of the year but was moved in 2015 to become part of the course's Future Champions Festival. It was upgraded again to Group 3 level from the 2019 running.[2]

Records
Leading jockey since 1980 (3 wins):

Greville Starkey – Grand Tour (1986), Mamaluna (1988), Rock Hopper (1989)
Ryan Moore - Under The Rainbow (2005), Indigo Way (2010), Kew Gardens (2017)
Leading trainer since 1980 (5 wins):

Mark Johnston – Double Trigger (1993), Double Eclipse (1994), Trigger Happy (1997), Empire Day (2006), Hartnell (2013)
Winners since 1980
Year    Winner    Jockey    Trainer    Time
1980    Krug    Bruce Raymond    Michael Jarvis   
1981    Paternoster Row    Geoff Baxter    Bruce Hobbs   
1982    John French    Lester Piggott    Henry Cecil    2:12.39
1983    High Debate    Billy Newnes    Malcolm Jefferson    2:08.14
1984    Ulterior Motive    Willie Carson    John Dunlop    2:09.45
1985    Highland Chieftain    Joe Mercer    John Dunlop    2:04.65
1986    Grand Tour    Greville Starkey    William Hastings-Bass    2:15.40
1987    Upper Strata    Ray Cochrane    Luca Cumani    2:11.13
1988    Mamaluna    Greville Starkey    Guy Harwood    2:08.14
1989    Rock Hopper    Greville Starkey    Michael Stoute    2:07.63
1990    Matahif    Willie Carson    Robert Armstrong    2:05.66
1991    Bonny Scot    Michael Roberts    Luca Cumani    2:05.00
1992    Bob's Return    Philip Robinson    Mark Tompkins    2:06.55
1993    Double Trigger    Jason Weaver    Mark Johnston    2:07.84
1994    Double Eclipse    Jason Weaver    Mark Johnston    2:12.40
1995    Gentilhomme    Richard Quinn    Paul Cole    2:06.87
1996    Silver Patriarch    Pat Eddery    John Dunlop    2:07.53
1997    Trigger Happy    John Carroll    Mark Johnston    2:06.02
1998    Adnaan    Richard Hills    John Dunlop    2:14.78
1999    Monte Carlo    Dane O'Neill    Richard Hannon Sr.    2:11.93
2000    Worthily    John Reid    Mick Channon    2:16.79
2001    Alexander Three D    Michael Hills    Barry Hills    2:07.83
2002    Forest Magic    John Egan    Paul D'Arcy    2:10.96
2003    Fun and Games    Ted Durcan    Mick Channon    2:06.17
2004    Ayam Zaman    Philip Robinson    Michael Jarvis    2:10.53
2005    Under the Rainbow    Ryan Moore    Peter Chapple-Hyam    2:15.93
2006    Empire Day    Kevin Darley    Mark Johnston    2:07.03
2007    Twice Over    Richard Hughes    Henry Cecil    2:05.39
2008    Heliodor    Jimmy Fortune    Richard Hannon Sr.    2:12.40
2009    Take It to the Max    Jimmy Fortune    George M. Moore    2:07.57
2010    Indigo Way    Ryan Moore    Brian Meehan    2:09.65
2011    Mojave    Frankie Dettori    Mahmood Al Zarooni    2:04.99
2012    Restraint of Trade    Silvestre de Sousa    Mahmood Al Zarooni    2:09.69
2013    Hartnell    Joe Fanning    Mark Johnston    2:12.26
2014    Crafty Choice    Richard Hughes    Richard Hannon Sr.    2:10.61
2015    Glamorous Approach    Kevin Manning    Jim Bolger    2:07.08
2016    Coronet    Frankie Dettori    John Gosden    2:02.89
2017    Kew Gardens    Ryan Moore    Aidan O'Brien    2:02.76
2018    Norway    Seamie Heffernan    Aidan O'Brien    2:07.87
2019    Max Vega    Harry Bentley    Ralph Beckett    2:09.50
2020    Lone Eagle    Silvestre de Sousa    Martyn Meade    2:05.45
2021    Goldspur    James Doyle    Charlie Appleby    2:05.76
2022    Flying Honours    William Buick    Charlie Appleby    2:02.53
2023    Arabian Crown    William Buick    Charlie Appleby    2:05.93
See also

silver patriarch. nearly, one more stride

Oaks runners (12 ran) who have not won a Group or Listed race
Finishing positions
9th  Rubies Are Red
11th  Treasure
12th  Seaward


Derby runners who have not won a Group or Listed race
Deira Mile
Euphoric
God's Window
Kamboo
Macduff
Mr Hampstead
Sayedaty Sadaty
Tabletalk
Voyage



Derby runners who have won a Group or Listed race
Ancient Wisdom 
City Of Troy 
Los Angeles
Dallas Star
Ambiente Friendly 
Bellum Justum 
Dancing Gemini

At the front end of the market, Ambient Friendly is my value bet with COT  a saver. (I would lay it but for the connections, so a saver is a cautious play.) Outside the front end, I have Bellum Justum as an each way play. His win here is very under-rated imo.

This looks like a below average Derby before the race. We might be surprised but I'm expecting an average performance around the 121/122 RPR.

Sticking with COT. Draw and conditions not ideal but hope he's just a lot better than this lot.

Wanted to go around again. CLASSSSSSSSSSS

Is it?

Is it?

i'd say so. in 2 successive years a comfortable derby winner has been produced following as bad a prep run as can be imagined. before 2023 when was the last time a derby winner ran so badly in it's last race?

Amazes me how little praise they get on here

really? before last year I don't recall any derby winner running so badly in it's previous race. aidan's obviously a great trainer but things like this leave a bad taste

Serpentine (c): (2yo)10th/11 beaten 16l > (3yo) 5th/18 btn 2.5l > 1st/8 wins by 8l > 1st/16s Derby by 5.5l at 25/1; loses 19 of 20 races afterwards.

Snowfall (f): (2yo) 3/14; 8/9; 1/10; 4/8; 5/8; 9/13; 8/10: (3yo) 1st/7 > 1st/14 Oaks by 16l.

Auguste Rodin (c): 12th/14 2000 Guineas btn 22l > 1st/Derby 9/2.

City Of Troy (c): 9th/11 2000 Guineas btn 17l > 1st/16 Derby 3/1.