City Of Troy odds are 2/1 for the Derby.


He may have had little training before the Guineas as the ground was wet all spring.
His dam, Together Forever, was 7th in the steadily run 2015 English Oaks, 8l clear in the Irish Oaks and finished 4th.

Does Justify, City Of Troy's sire, have the stamina?
The average winning distance of Justify's offspring is 10.1f, although that is based on few runners (about 89?).
What is interesting is Justify's top 10 runners at 10-11f, 9 have Galileo as damsire (6 of the 10 won at 12-13f).
Justify's 9 runners at 12-13f, 6 of the 9 have Galileo as damsire (2 of the 9 won at 12-13f).

Contrast Justify's AWD 10.1f with Sadler's Wells 11.4f; Galileo 11.3f; Montjeu 11.9f, sires of many Derby winners.
Other sires of recent Derby winners AWD:
Deep Impact 10.5f; Nathanial 12.3f, Frankel 10.4f, New Approach 10.0f, Pour Moi 10.8f, Sea The Stars 11.3f, Cape Cross 9.4f, King's Best 9.0f, Mark Of Esteem 8.7f.

The AWD (average winning distance) is not a good yardstick
.The average distance of all flat races is about 9.3f.

Take Sadler's Wells as an example.
(Sadler's Wells + dams averaging 9.3f winning distance)/2 = Sadler's Wells average of 11.4f
(Sadler's Wells influence is 13.5f + dam 9.3f)/2 = 22.8f/2 = 11.4f ...... 13.5f is more than two furlongs longer than his "official" AWD

The same calculation for Justify (sire of City Of Troy) gives (Justify 10.9f + dam 9.3f)/2 = 10.1f


My calculation of the sire distance influence
Justify 10.9f; Sadler's Wells 13.5f; Galileo 13.3f; Montjeu 14.5f


I looked at the 34 wunners sires by Justify out of a Galileo mare.
17 won (8 colts, 9 fillies); 17 are maidens; 156 runs for 26 wins
10 2yo wins (avg dist 7.5f); 16 3yo+ wins (avg dist 8.9f)

The longest distances of the sixteen 3yo+ wins were 11.9f and 12.0f, London City (0-95 hcap); Milwaukee (Curragh maiden, his 5th start).

My guess is City Of Troy does not stay unless the ground is fast.

'kincsem', blind me! You went through that for a horse race may it be the Epsom Derby? I may 'lay' COT again after reading your post.

There were a few typos in my post but you get the gist.
I do not bet since Paddy Power/Betfair "borrowed" my deposit for 255 days back in 2021.
If I was betting on the Derby it would be a place lay City Of Troy.
Unless there is another Lazarus-like performance from Coolmore (Auguste Rodin style) I would avoid him.
If he wins perhaps the BHA would ask a few questions.

i havent given up on ancient wisdom ,i got my fingers burnt in the gns but suddenly he has drifted to a very attractive price for epsom and tho some may think the dante run was dissapointing i thought it was decent ,a staying on 2nd and  possibly wont have the winner to contend with at epsom ,charlie said he will come on for the race and thats how it looked to me ,dancing gemini gave the futurity form a boost when a close 2nd in the french gns and ancient wisdom was not knocked about in the dante i thought it was a good trial and he is now an each way price , the city of troy bubble has been pricked if not completely burst and who nknows how he  will run if indeed he does run . cant go in too hard yet as had so many nonners ante post but have had a few small pops .

ambient freindly 2nd fav for the derby was btn near 6l by ancient wisdom in a  1m group 3 at newmarket last season on soft .

Justify won the 12f Belmont in a reasonable time 2:28.18.
The horse in second in the Belmont, Gronkowski, ran six times in England, winning four, his last race before the Belmont a Listed race on Newcastle all weather ten weeks earlier.
The 3rd in the Belmont has won three races from 11 starts, two of those 5 runner races at 9f.
I would not bother much with USA race times as the timer does not start at the opening of the stalls, but when the horses break a beam after running a while.

There are a few things to consider
(1) Justify's own distance capability
(2) the distance capability he transmits to his offspring
and they are seldom the same.

Justify's sire Scat Daddy ran to 9f; Justify's dam Stage Magic had difficulty getting 8.5f
Stage Magic (f): / 8f  1st straight, finished 3rd "led, hung" / 8.5f "faltered" 7th btn 29l / 8.5f 2nd "clear, overtaken" / 8.5f 3rd "pace, drifted, weakened" / 8f 12th "empty" / 8f 1st by neck "lasted late"
It can be difficult to assess USA horses stamina capability as their race program tends to be 7f, 8f, 9f.
The race records of Justify's sire and dam, and the race records of the grandparents (if raced) - everything is 9f or less.

Justify won the 10 runner 12f Belmont on a flat track dictating the pace. 
The Epsom 12f rises 134 feet and probably needs more stamina.

Trained by that fine gentleman Mr. Ox not by the legend AP. Makes a difference to price.

City of Troy will drift on the day imo. The books will be looking to get him beat and will entice punters in.

Seems he's on the drift right now.

His full brother clearly stays 12 furlongs, the dam's full sister won the Oaks in soft ground by four and a half lengths and was then beaten a neck in the Irish Oaks by Sea Of Class. He is bred for 12 furlongs in my view and the most impressive thing about him last year was how strongly he would finish his races so I don't have any concerns about his stamina.

I have wanted to back him for the Derby since last year but the hype has been so great that he has always been too short to interest me. Even after his poor Guineas run for which I don't see a valid excuse he still remains too short.

The only concern is that he has gone backwards and not trained on in which case I expect he will finish tailed off. If he is as good as last year, I expect him to win or go very close, so I will not back him before the off and will look to back him in-running if it looks to me that he is going to show his true form.

Trained by that fine gentleman Mr. Ox not by the legend AP. Makes a difference to price.

yes but STS won the guineas not tailed-off

there seems to be too much looking at last year, what happened with Auguste Rodin and thinking it will happen again. Subsequent events suggest AR has an intermittent issue that only emerges under the pressure of racing so either wins or finishes down the field. Unlikely COT has the same issue. And also seems unlikely AO'B has forgotten how to produce a horse for the Guineas first time out.

Mosy probably COT was a good 2yo that hasn't trained on.

Haggas is one of those trainers haunted by fear of failure - always looking to avoid challenges

Auguste Rodin had a genuine reason for the bad run in the 2000G last season; he ran onto the back of his stablemate. but, his main objective has always been the Epsom Derby.

City Of Troy was pants in the 2000G. Unless his trainer's claim was accurate ie he undercooked the horse, another dismal failure will undoubtedly mean he's not trained on; 2/1 to find out let alone win this race is plain barmy.

Anyway, I hope he wins for his trainer's sake.

I'd concur. I'm against AOB, his proven judgement and tall reputation. I hope Diego Velazquez runs, and my money will be on him before City Of Troy, if so.

Kincsem

"I assume you are talking about Unbelievable's (formerly Bertinelli) run over 12f at Ascot.
Ascot standard time for 12f is 2:29.80 (1m3f211y); Epsom 2:35.20  (1m4f6y).
The Epsom 12f has a standard time 5.40s slower although 15 yards longer (about 1 second).
Epsom has a 134 feet rise over the first 6f.
Ascot is not "more demanding" over 12f, but far less."

Rationale is flawed imo. Leger-type horses/stayers would have a better record in the Derby if Epsom was a test of stamina. You've already flagged the decent record of horses that have prepped over a mile in the race. I'm more interested in par finishing speeds. The fastest Arc ever run was Found's at Chantilly. But if you reckon Longchamp is a greater test of stamina than Chantilly, you'd be similarly wide of the mark.

I always had a thought that if COT was the next 'Frankel' (gospel according to one of the lads), Kentucky Derby would have been a target. Especially when trainer has said he will go back to Louisville when the right horse comes along. This derby looks poor and getting worse by the day. Cox, Haggas, who's next to fall out afraid of winning it?

12f standard at chantilly is faster than that at longchamps. you'd think if a race takes longer it requires more stamina - but here i think the difference is too small to have any significance

If City Of Troy has not trained on or is not training well enough to at least go close in the Derby, I still think he might have run his last race.
If he runs at Epsom, he would surely have a decent chance, and the opposition looks grim.

I believe it when I see him at Epsom next saturday. Until then a last minute hitch could scupper his presence. I still cannot forget or forgive his performance at Newmarket at the beginning of the month.

Cue Diego Velazquez.