Difficult to put a speed figure on it. It's perfectly possible that he's put himself in the top bracket there, but it would rely on Defiant having replicated his Epsom run. That's about the only marker I can find. The problem is the pedigree doesn't scream Derby.

I should have said the joint best Derby trial together with the Chester Vase, won by the unfortunate Hidden Law. After some revision I have Ancient Wisdom 6lbs ahead of Godolphin's Hidden Law and 7lbs higher than Arabian Crown. I rate his Autumn Stakes form good enough to take a Derby in an average year.

Obviously I'll be interested to see how he gets on at York and if he has retained that ability. From the press reports Appleby has sounded more hopeful than confident. If he has retained his ability then he's likely to win the Dante but I wouldn't want to see him given a hard race and leave his Derby chance behind. If he has actually improved from 2 to 3 then he'd be extremely likely to take the Derby.

At 11/8 (best) for The Dante Ancient Wisdom will need to win. If so, he'll be a major player for this race; he beat Ambiente Friendly comfortably on soft ground, and the latter won today on good ground. Otherwise, back to the drawing board for Ancient Wisdom, I reckon.

Terrible form though A_T. The farcical pace leading to a time 1.85 sec slower than the poor fillies classic.

yes the slower time can be accounted for by the rain.

imp, you know as well as me, if coolmore lot said today was sunday, youd look in the calendr, i recall few years back he had about 8 runners declared for derby and as usual he said some going to epsom others going  to france , the lot went to epsom, think it was serendipitys derby,   you just cannot take anything he says on face value, and thats the main reason i cannot have him as one of the true great trainers

guys youll beat yersells up nothing you can do ......move on the dante meeting next put your energy in that!

yes the slower time can be accounted for by the rain.

Only partially, the other part due to the slow pace, and slow horses

Aidan O'Brien: 'We've never sent a horse to the Derby with as much ability as City Of Troy'

You can read what you want into that statement.  In my opinion it could be true or, on the otherhand, it could mean that retirement is looming and that he is just talking up the hose's reputation ready for a future breeding career. Hard to know which.

In my view City Of Troy's best 2yo form is just about good enough to win an average Derby.

Aidan O'Brien: 'We've never sent a horse to the Derby with as much ability as City Of Troy'

I can think of a few he's sent that had run faster on the racecourse beforehand. High Chaparral, Australia, even Auguste Rodin.

For me, O'Brien being so close to the horse is seeing traits that he loves, but all of those things don't necessarily translate to being faster on the track.

Obviously COT was well below par in the Guineas and can't be judged on that, but his best win is a 3.5 lengths beating of Alyanaabi and a 4.5 lengths beating of Eben Shaddad. Decent enough form but "only Frankel achieved a higher Timeform performance rating in the Dewhurst this century"? Let's face it, Timeform and some others really lost the plot on this one.

It's obvious that a lot of people close to the horse retain their faith in him. Shortening all the time for the Derby and I haven't seen anything that they should be frightened of.

hoping to regain my losses it cant be as bad again surely

The opposition looks below par though. When I saw him in the Dewhurst last October I wasn't expecting to see the horse I saw. He was very small and that concerns me. Paddock side at the Guineas I thought he had filled out more but not much. However like Phonsie O'Brien said when Vincent was mulling over whether to buy The Minstrel and was concerned about his size - if size had anything to do with it a cow would outrun a rabbit.

sorry Arabian

even if he does rise from the ashes. it looks like a terrible derby

City of Troy is a ridiculous price - all things considered - and can only be his connections induced. I think backing him at a price of 2/1 can only be asylum induced. Even Auguste Rodin was 7/1 at this stage.

I'd like Ambiente Friendly or Economics to win - the two horses with the necessary form. What a shame about Arabian Crown? Appleby has had no luck with this year's contestants.

Watched the Morning Line today and they said that if Economics ran he would be about a 9/4 shot. Now that is a ridiculous price.

I think you are spot on JTOTD. They are running very in and out and it's very much of concern. Whether the cold wet winter which dragged on for awhile means they are behind somewhat I don't honestly know but you can say the trainers in the Uk have had to put up with it as well. I'm encouraged by the fact that he still seems to have the backing of people closest to him and it sounds by comments coming from the stable that the Derby is the race they think he is suited to most. I agree though that it takes a leap of faith to back him. They did it last year and those who stuck by the trainer were nicely rewarded. It looks a poor race and if he is anything like he must go close.

Yes a lot better today. Let's hope they can kick on now.