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2022 1000 Guineas Newmarket
2022 1000 Guineas Newmarket
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Outside World has been cut to 10/1 from 20/1 for the Lowther. An interesting move for the Mark Johnston filly: she did look overpriced at 20/1.
There is a disappointing turnout of just five fillies so far (final declarations tomorrow) for the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville on Saturday. The two British challengers Oscula (already a Gr.3 winner at the course last time) and Fast Attack (impressive debut winner at Kempton) look to have strong claims. Fleur D'Iris (won narrowly at Compiegne), Red Smile (fourth in a conditions race last time) and Accakaba (unbeaten in three races at La Teste Buch) don't look anything special. There are seven fillies still engaged in the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville on Sunday, including the Gr.2 Queen Mary winner Quick Suzy and Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes winner Velocidad (a possible runner in the Debutante Stakes at the Curragh the previous day). The Gr.3 Prix de Cabourg winner Have A Good Day (F.Guyader) and runner-up Dizzy Bizu (S.Wattel) are possible runners, along with the unbeaten Josejosephine (C.Plisson) and Accakaba (C.Ferland). |
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SP of Agartha in the Curragh race was a surprise.
Good call jamesp. Did not see race. Looking forward to your update after the weekend. |
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the flame of tara stakes today at the curragh should be interesting some well bred types form big yards ,coolmores lullabye straight into group company on debut .
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There have been some notable performances in the past week or so, but there hasn't been much resulting movement in the Guineas betting. The leading fillies (on RPR ratings, which are a reasonably good guide to performance) suggest there isn't much to choose between them on racecourse evidence:
108 Zain Claudette (I.Mohammed) -2111 108 Sandrine (A.Balding) -1112 107 Agartha (J.O’Brien) -332211 106 Accakaba (C.Ferland) -1111 106 Fleur D’Iris (A.Fabre) -412 106 Quick Suzy (G.Cromwell) -21219 104 Inspiral (J. & T.Gosden) -11 Zain Claudette took another a step up the rankings with a gutsy win in the Gr.2 Lowther at York, following up her earlier narrow Gr.3 win at Ascot. Sandrine, giving three pounds, was only beaten a length and the two fillies come out level on the ratings. It's hard to predict which of these fillies would come out on top when renewing rivalry next time in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. It's also hard to tell whether either of these fillies will get a mile next season. It should be noted that Desert Dreamer (third, beaten three lengths) should have finished closer to the front pair: her saddle slipped and she became unbalanced in the latter stages. There's probably not a lot between those three fillies and I think they are all vulnerable in the Cheveley Park Stakes. The one I fancy at this stage for the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes is Ger Lyons' unbeaten Sacred Bridge, who was very impressive in the Gr.3 Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh yesterday evening. She travelled well through the race and quickened clear in the final furlong in the style of a very smart filly to win by nearly 4 lengths from opposition that included Ladies Church (OR 102) and Sam Maximus (OR 107). This was a performance worthy of a rating of 110+ and she's the one I would make favourite for the Cheveley Park (her next intended target) (she's 6/1 now from 12/1 for that race with Power and Betfair). Although she's a very quick filly, she gets 6f well and has reasonable prospects of getting a mile as she settles well, and she's a full sister to Viadera (multiple winner at a mile, including a Gr.1 in America), out of a 10f winner. Agartha continued her progression with a fine performance in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, making all and comfortably holding off a number of well bred and highly regarded rivals in a fast winning time (faster than Point Lonsdale in the Gr.2 Futurity Stakes on the same card). The only filly to make up any ground on her in the final furlong was the fast-finishing Sunset Shiraz, who shapes like she will be well suited by longer distances (she's a half-sister to Leger runner-up Berkshire Rocco). Agartha is in pole position for the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, and a win there would qualify her for an appearance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Oscula was unable to repeat her successful front-running tactics in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados and was swallowed up on this occasion by Accakaba and Fleur D'Iris. Fast Attack, who had impressed on debut, faded in the last two furlongs. The fillies failed to land a blow against the colts in the Gr.1 Prix Morny, with Have A Good Day (the Prix de Cabourg winner) faring best in sixth. Quick Suzy (the Queen Mary winner) went off too fast and faded in the final furlong, and previously unbeaten Velocidad never got competitive and failed to last home (the suspicion remains that her Airlie Stud Stakes winning form is quite weak). Inspiral remains favourite (by default) for the 1000 Guineas at a best price 10/1. She's clearly a smart prospect, but an expected win next time in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes is already factored into her Guineas odds and I don't think she represents any value at this stage. I'd be tempted to back Agartha at 33/1, but she's been bought by American owner Scott Heider, so there must be a fair chance that she will end up running at the Breeders' Cup and then continue her racing career in America. The Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood today looks wide open. Lightly raced Daneh ran well in a Gr.3 race in France last time and is the logical selection, but there are several lightly raced and promising individuals in opposition. |
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A decent performance by Mise En Scene to mug Daneh close home in the Prestige Stakes this afternoon. This looks a few pounds better than the Sweet Solera Stakes form of Majestic Glory (using Value Theory as a guide), with the winner likely to earn a rating of around 103-104. It was a very good performance on just her second start, but these Gr.3 races all look much of a muchness this season, and a lot more will be needed next time. She's by Siyouni out of a Galileo half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa, so she should continue to progress and will have no trouble stepping up to a mile. 33/1 Mise En Scene for the Guineas is more tempting than 10/1 Inspiral, but I doubt there will be a rush at this stage to snap up those odds. Daneh was slightly disappointing: she clearly has a potent turn of foot but was outstayed close home, so maybe she needs to be ridden with a bit more patience in future to enable that acceleration to be deployed to best effect.
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The entries are in for the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on Thursday. Unsurprisingly the warm favourite is unbeaten Inspiral, currently favourite for the 1000 Guineas following an impressive win in the Star Stakes (Listed). This will be her toughest assignment to date, but there's no reason to think that the step up in trip and class won't bring about further improvement, and she's going to be hard to beat. Latest betting (best available prices): evens Inspiral, 13/2 Albula, 10 Seisai, 10 Speak, 12 Prosperous Voyage, 12 Suspicious, 12 Wild Beauty, 25 bar.
Albula ran a fine race over this mile trip in the Gr.3 Flame of Tara Stakes last time, just getting touched off close home by a better stayer after travelling best and going a couple of lengths clear a furlong from home. That was only her second start and further improvement is likely. Stablemate Seisai could only manage fourth in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last time, beaten nearly 5 lengths, but she had to be switched and didn't get a clear run at a crucial stage and is better than her finishing position suggests. She kept on well inside the final furlong at the Curragh and the step up to a mile could bring about further improvement: she's not without a chance. Speak won comfortably on debut over this mile trip at Kempton, and the form was boosted when the runner-up Natasha went on to win by 5 lengths next time. She could be anything, and it's interesting that her trainer Andrew Balding chooses to run this one in preference to his Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes winner Majestic Glory. She's clearly held in high regard. Prosperous Voyage is crying out for this step up in trip, having finished well at Goodwood in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes after being short of room and having to be switched to get a clear run. Suspicious won a maiden over course and distance on her racecourse debut: she only won by a neck (from a Godolphin newcomer) and it's hard to get an angle on the value of that form, so she's a completely unknown quantity. Wild Beauty was comfortably beaten by Inspiral at Sandown and has since been beaten in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, and it's hard to see her reversing the Sandown form over this extra furlong. In conclusion: this is a good opportunity for Inspiral to strengthen her position at the head of the 1000 Guineas betting, and her trainer John Gosden obviously knows exactly what is required to win the race (he has a good record in the race), but it will be her toughest test so far, and there are several fillies who could be capable of giving her race. |
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Interested to see what Inspiral can show today. She won easily last time but didn't achieve a great deal on the clock. The bare level shown wouldn't even be good enough to take this event in many seasons, but this year's renewal looks weak on paper. She needs to step up considerably to justify her position in the Oaks betting, and even more to be considered a possible Guineas winner.
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I was disappointed with Inspiral today. I thought she would have beaten that lot far more easily. She will need to be a deal better than that to win a classic.
I was not surprised she was cut to 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas. That is because the layers always seem to cut the ante post odds of a horse after a win. Personally I am not at all convinced that Inspiral’s chances of winning a classic were improved by today’s win one iota, and have laid her her as a consequence as current odds are not reasonable value. I do though rather hope she is a bit better than than as I did plunge heavily for me at 33/1 after her maiden success. |
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although she won by 3 3/4L thought she was more
workmanlike than impressive.Just my take on the race. |
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I was impressed - stretched away off a slow pace. But might be more of an Oaks type
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Yes she has a half brother by Dansili who stayed a mile and a half.
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She’s 10/1 for the oaks now and that might not look bad if she wins the fillies’ mile.
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It's a shame that the May Hill cut up quite badly, with Joseph O'Brien deciding not to run any of his four entries, so it ended up looking a fairly weak race on paper with Prosperous Voyage (OR 97) the only one of Inspiral's opponents to have put up a decent prior performance in a good quality race (in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes). Like others, I thought Inspiral's performance today was rather workmanlike: although she never looked in any trouble, there was a stage when she had to be kept up to her work to edge ahead, before easing herself clear in the latter stages. This left me wondering whether she'll have the speed to win a Guineas next year. Although she's a daughter of a Guineas runner-up (Starscope), there's plenty of stamina in the pedigree, as COT rightly pointed out: the dam stayed 10.5f and has produced a couple of offspring by Dansili who were tried over 12f. She will certainly get 10f, possibly further. It will be interesting to see the sectional times: she hadn't achieved any startling fractions in her two previous races, but today's winning time looked good. 7/1 is plenty short enough for the Guineas [laying off some of the 33/1 seems shrewd, COT - but well done for getting those big odds in the first place!], and she's likely to face stiffer competition in the Fillies' Mile next time (including Group race winners like Majestic Glory, Mise En Scene, Agartha, Magical Lagoon).
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There were good performances this afternoon by the Andre Fabre-trained pair Fleur D'Iris and Zellie in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp, traditional prep race for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Fleur D'Iris, who had been beaten just a short neck in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados previously, dictated the pace, quickened clear and won comfortably, but the eyecatcher once again was runner-up Zellie, who was given far too much to do by Hugo Besnier (held up in last place, well off the pace) and finished strongly with a couple of sectionals that were far quicker than anything else in the race (penultimate furlong of 10.77s followed by a final furlong of 11.17s on yielding ground). Both fillies are likely to run next in the Boussac and it's hard to predict which one will come out on top. Winning time was 2.14s faster than the colts' equivalent race (the Gr.3 Prix des Chenes) and the form has a solid look to it (with lightly raced maiden winners in third and fourth), though probably a few pounds below the Gr.2 form of Inspiral in today's May Hill and Agartha in the Debutante Stakes. It's completely speculative, but I've thrown a few quid on Zellie at 50/1 for the Guineas, simply on the basis that she may have more to offer in the Boussac and she goes on any ground, even though I suspect that Barzalona will opt to stay with Fleur D'Iris.
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Inspiral's sectional times don't really add much to the visual impression of her performance: her penultimate furlong 11.33s was virtually the same as Allayaali in the 6.5f nursery, with a final furlong of 12.26s. Her final two furlongs were obviously much quicker than anything else in the field and she was by far the strongest at the finish. It was one of the fastest renewals of the May Hill in recent years, but slower than Agnes Stewart (2014, good ground) and Turret Rocks (2015, good ground).
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Inspiral's sectional times don't really add much to the visual impression of her performance: her penultimate furlong 11.33s was virtually the same as Allayaali in the 6.5f nursery, with a final furlong of 12.26s. Her final two furlongs were obviously much quicker than anything else in the field and she was by far the strongest at the finish. It was one of the fastest renewals of the May Hill in recent years, but slower than Agnes Stewart (2014, good ground) and Turret Rocks (2015, good ground).
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Just eight declared runners in Sunday's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. Latest betting: 3/1 Homeless Songs, 100/30 Agartha, 7/2 Cairde Go Deo, 8 Discoveries, 8 Sunset Shiraz, 10 Prettiest, 16 Concert Hall, 80 Missing Matron.
Agartha sets the standard, having won the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (always a good pointer to this race) quite impressively last time - she holds Sunset Shiraz, Discoveries and Concert Hall on that form. She's a most progressive filly and should be hard to peg back. Sunset Shiraz finished in eyecatching style in the Debutante and looks to be very much on the upgrade. Homeless Songs beat Agartha by a couple of lengths on debut in a maiden two months ago and has clearly been specially prepared for this race (she is owned by the race sponsor): she could be anything, but she lacks experience and Agartha has made considerable improvement since and may be able to reverse placings. Cairde Go Deo was a wide-margin winner of a C&D conditions race last time (runner-up was beaten next time at Tipperary) and has a lot to find on form but is clearly held in high regard. It would be no surprise to see Homeless Songs win this and put herself in the Guineas picture, but Agartha has done nothing but improve in the last couple of months and I see no reason why she shouldn't continue to progress: 100/30 looks quite a decent price. |
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Interesting thoughts thanks James
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If Homeless Songs absence is not 'niggle' related and she has been targeted at this all along
well no reason why she can't win. I would prefer if she already had that second run. But DKW is topman. She came very wide in her impressive win to mow down Agartha. She could be very good. Cairde Go Deo seems well fancied by a stable in fantastic form. Then RL Moore stays with Prettiest and will be interesting. Its a tough race to call. Great write up from jamesp. |
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Quick reaction to the Moyglare Stud Stakes result: there is every reason to think that the runner-up Agartha and third Sunset Shiraz ran more or less to their Debutante Stakes form (official ratings of 109 and 104, once again separated by two lengths), so I rate this win by Discoveries the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season (111+) and I have now had my first proper (large) bet on next year's Guineas on Jessica Harrington's filly at 20/1. Much better value than Inspiral at this stage. She is clearly a highly progressive filly with loads of physical scope and is bred to be the real deal (full sister to Alpha Centauri).
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i was impressed by that performance also james and have taken the 20/1 each way . my only bet so far on the gns good luck !
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last years results 2020
moyglare slow 4.19 national stakes slow 5.53 this year 2021 moyglare slow 4.10 national stakes slow 3.27 good ground in the going description 2020/2021 obviously a bit more faster this year, that is not reflected in this years moyglare race time, as you say, very well related and is a 20/1 shot. goodluck |
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Even if you rate Native Trail's time performance as close to Guineas winning class, and I do (not that I'll be backing him for it at this stage), it leaves the Moyglare some way behind the level normally needed to win a 1ooo. I have Agartha running to pretty much the same as when she won the Debutante (1lb lower today), which again is well short of Guineas winning level. Discoveries has obviously made significant improvement from her previous efforts and was a deserved winner, but I wouldn't say she was value for any more than the bare result.
As we've seen in recent years fillies can make big unexpected improvement from 2 to 3. Mother Earth, Hermosa and Billesdon Brook certainly weren't on my radar as likely Classic winners in their 2yo season. Maybe Discoveries can do likewise, but so could any of the others, and she's not for me even at a big price. |
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watched both those races yesterday, last years races and the times difference this year, leads me to think, one was run very slow and the other much faster last year, with both winners of the guineas in those races, and the way coolmore have campaigned their horses recently, concert hall could improve massively
 very difficult to assess from visual aspect discoveries, did look like it didn't really have a race, zain claudette is horse i like, wouldn't have a clue if that can win a guineas |
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It's always good to get the views and thoughts of other experts and commentators. These are the comments of three reporters at the Racing Post:
"Agartha is not easily passed so for Discoveries to do it in the Moyglare stamps her down as a genuine 1,000 Guineas contender. Homeless Songs and Cairde Go Deo didn't run their races, but there was still plenty of substance to the form and, if the ground is on the fast side at Newmarket next May, she will go there with a live chance. I wouldn't give up on Agartha either." [David Jennings, deputy Irish editor] "We saw two very legitimate contenders for the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas in Native Trail and Discoveries. Given she physically has the potential to progress a fair deal over the winter, Discoveries could be a touch overpriced at 20-1 for Newmarket glory." [Mark Boylan, reporter] "In the case of Discoveries, it is somewhat less clear-cut as the Moyglare is the type of race that excuses might well be sought for the fillies she beat on Sunday. On saying that, she is clearly on the up and if she can improve at three the way her sister Alpha Centauri did, she could well be capable of something special." [Justin O'Hanlon, reporter] |
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if Zain Claudette was trained by a bigger name, don't
think she would be as big a price for the 1000G as she is right now (25/1) with a couple of firms. |
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The progressive Zain Claudette would certainly be a shorter price for the Guineas if she were trained by a bigger 'name'. Her jockey said after the Lowther that she'll have no problem getting further than 6f (he struggled to pull her up) and the current intention is to aim her at the Guineas following her next run in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Any previous doubts about No Nay Never being capable of siring a top-class filly miler have been largely dispelled this year by the Gr.1 exploits of Alcohol Free. She's a relaxed and straightforward filly, so she might well get a mile. However, the Cheveley Park Stakes will be a tougher test, and my fancy for that race is Ger Lyons' unbeaten filly Sacred Bridge (now 11/4 from 6/1 for that race, and as short as 16/1 for the Guineas).
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Top-rated juvenile fillies with Timeform (pre-Moyglare):
110p Sacred Bridge 106 Agartha 106 Quick Suzy 106 Sandrine Top-rated juvenile fillies on latest Racing Post Ratings (RPR): 110 Discoveries 109 Sacred Bridge 108 Inspiral 108 Agartha 108 Zain Claudette 108 Sandrine 106 Accakaba 106 Fleur D'Iris Since the start of the millennium the median RPR for 1000 Guineas winning performances has been 115. Here are the most recent Guineas winners with their Guineas-winning RPR and their highest juvenile RPR (in brackets). RPRs are only one measure of performance (and subject to revision), and one should always make use of several different sets of data/ratings (if one doesn't create one's own ratings), but they're as good a single guide as any. The most difficult recent Guineas winners to pick on juvenile form include Billesdon Brook, Winter, Legatissimo, Blue Bunting, Ghanaati and Virginia Waters (most of whom didn't contest Group races at two). Fillies that achieved high ratings at two have rarely needed to improve much over the winter to be live Guineas contenders. 2021 Mother Earth 113 (111) 2020 Love 116 (111) 2019 Hermosa 113 (110) 2018 Billesdon Brook 116 (100) 2017 Winter 117 (82) 2016 Minding 121 (119) 2015 Legatissimo 117 (100) 2014 Miss France 111 (114) 2013 Sky Lantern 112 (110) 2012 Homecoming Queen 117 (104) 2011 Blue Bunting 116 (99) 2010 Special Duty 111 (117) 2009 Ghanaati 115 (87) 2008 Natagora 113 (117) 2007 Finsceal Beo 121 (120) 2006 Speciosa 114 (108) 2005 Virginia Waters 115 (98) 2004 Attraction 115 (117) 2003 Russian Rhythm 118 (114) 2002 Kazzia 112 (105) 2001 Ameerat 115 (103) 2000 Lahan 115 (104) 1999 Wince 114 (101) 1998 Cape Verdi 124 (112) 1997 Sleepytime 118 (101) 1996 Bosra Sham 115 (116) 1995 Harayir 116 (114) 1994 Las Meninas 120 (108) 1993 Sayyedati 118 (115) 1992 Hatoof 116 (116) 1991 Shadayid 120 (124) |
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jessie harrington says discoveries been put away till next season ,says she had entries in fillies mile and the prix macel on arc weekend but will be put away ,till next season the 1,000 gns according to timeform.
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Thanks for that update Foyleswar. To me if I was 'on' Discoveries already I would take this
putting aside as a plus. Jesse is good at her job. I watched the 'Moyglare' close enough to her to observe her demeanor. In my opinion she was really cool and not surprised at all by Discoveries fine performance. Definitely it was the target for this filly, and Jesse does this targeting job very well indeed. Now what to make of the 'Discoveries' performance though! Lets start with Prettiest who never looked likely. Yet was beaten just over 6 lengths. This after Ryan Moore eased off late on. The Ger Lyons filly faded badly and may not have given of her best. Agartha had every chance as did DKW's filly. Discoveries from the 'Niarchos' barn is you all know a full sister to Alpha Centauri. A concern for ante-post backers here is that 'Centauri' did not make Newmarket. She probably disappointed on her first run as a 3yr old in mid April. Then off till she bounced back to win the Irish 1000 Guineas in late May under Colm O Donoghue. The Niarchos barn has produced great horses from this dam-line. Miesque included with plenty others. Its a top producing line and no doubt 'Discoveries' previous run was just a prep for the target race. (Hindsight dammit). So can it do the business May 1st 2022. You pay to find out with the 20/1 disappearing now 16/1 seems best price available. She will have an outstanding chance with plenty improvement to come and she could very well add to her immediate families outstanding achievements on the racetracks. There is none better bred to do so. As an aside to the main matter Stavros Niarchos built his empire on the shipping and was no friend to his great rival Aristotle Onassis. Both Greeks and bitter rivals. I would recommend the book 'Ari' The Life and Times of Aristotle Onassis as a great read. For anyone bored like myself of this Covid. |
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I agree, it's probably no bad thing that Discoveries is going to be put away now for the Guineas. I'm sure she'll have no problem finding the extra few pounds improvement over the winter to have a potentially winning chance in the Guineas. It should be noted that the trainer believes the filly was unsuited by soft ground in the Debutante Stakes. It's worth reading her post-race comments after the Moyglare:
"The ground was soft for the Debutante and we knew that like her sister she will only go on quick. This is lovely fast ground with lots of grass and that made the difference, plus maybe the three weeks in between which allowed her to strengthen up and come forward. We thought she'd improve with better ground and she'd done a good bit of work earlier in the week. I don't know where we go, as today was the plan. She's a lovely, lovely filly and is completely different to Alpha Centauri, who was a big grey filly. This filly was not as big, but she has done a lot of growing. She has a lovely temperament and is not as feisty as Alpha. Alpine Star looked completely different again. She was long and low, not very big. This is what we work towards and to have two Group 1 winners this weekend is amazing. She will definitely step up to a mile in time. We never got the chance to step Alpha Centauri beyond a mile, but we might have done had she not been injured." This was followed yesterday by confirmation that she will be aimed at the Guineas: "Discoveries is not going to run again this year. She’s a big filly who has had four runs, and I think that’s enough for her. She’s won her Group 1, and it would be terrible to go back and get beaten in another Group 1, so I’m going to leave her be. That [1000 Guineas] is where she will go." PS One shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Discoveries had only a short-head to spare over Aidan O'Brien's newcomer Tuesday (a full-sister to Minding) in a Curragh maiden on 25 June. The Ballydoyle filly has not been seen since and has no future entries, but is one to watch out for whenever she next runs. |
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Discoveries is from one truly great female line, with so many group one winners. Miesque is obviously a complete legend and all time great, and Alpha Centauri was also immensely talented.
Discoveries improving a stone or more from 2 to 3 would be no great shock would it? |
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There are a couple of potentially important Guineas pointer races this weekend.
The Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (on Friday) has produced several Guineas winners in recent years and it looks an open-looking renewal, with the usual mixture of proven Group race performers and fillies stepping up from maiden/novice company. 16 entries are headed by the progressive Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes winner Majestic Glory (7/2); Ralph Beckett's springer in the market Girl On Film (4/1 from 10/1), who was well-fancied when making a winning debut at the July Course; Roger Charlton's unbeaten Jumbly (4/1), daughter of Gr.1 winner Thistle Bird, who was impressive at Kempton last time; Ger Lyons' Juncture (9/2), runner-up to Agartha in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes, who may have more to offer; Oscula (11/2), third in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados last time, following a Gr.3 win at Deauville; Hello You (8/1), third in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes and possibly a doubtful stayer; Sense Of Duty (8/1), a wide-margin 6f Newbury maiden winner for William Haggas; 10/1 bar. It looks a very tough race to call but could have a bearing on the betting for the Guineas. The Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (on Saturday) has a long track record of producing Guineas winners and also-rans. 15 entries are headed by unbeaten Sacred Bridge (11/4), impressive winner of a Gr.3 race in Ireland last time; Zain Claudette (4/1) and Sandrine (4/1), first and second in the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes last time, with slight preference for the progressive Lowther winner, though they are weighted to dead-heat on that form; Desert Dreamer (10/1), who was a bit unlucky last time in the Lowther (saddle slipped, should have finished closer to front pair); Tenebrism (10/1), off the track since making a winnning debut for Aidan O'Brien at the end of March (in the maiden won by Poetic Flare 12 months earlier) - she's clearly had problems of some kind, but she's a daughter of dual Gr.1 winning miler Immortal Verse and could be anything; the speedy Flotus (10/1), who finally came good with an impressive Listed win at Ripon last time; 12/1 bar. I'm sticking with Sacred Bridge, who was so impressive last time at the Curragh and looked good value at 6/1 for this race following that victory, but I'm not underestimating the Lowther principals, and it will be fascinating to see how Tenebrism gets on if she's allowed to take her chance (though the O'Brien juveniles have not been setting the world alight in recent weeks). |
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Just had my second 'proper' bet for the 1000 Guineas. Andre Fabre's filly Raclette has only won a couple of slowly-run soft ground minor races thus far, most recently a mile conditions race at Chantilly very easily by 4 lengths. Normally I don't pay too much attention to home reputations unless they're backed up by smart performances on the track, but in this case the vibes are quite compelling and she could be a very high class filly in the making. Following the filly's impressive win last Friday, Fabre said: "She was very impressive last time out and she is probably one of the best fillies I have ever trained – she’s got everything. She has acceleration, a wonderful temperament, so far she is doing everything right. We’ll go for the Boussac with her next. It is quite a big step going from a conditions race to a Group One, but she was way better than her opponents last time. I can’t see why quicker ground would be an issue as she has a beautiful action. She has already won over a mile so the dream would be the Prix de Diane and the Arc, but there’s also a lot of speed on the dam’s side so hopefully she’d go for the Guineas first." That'll do for me. Considering Fabre has other smart juvenile fillies in his care this season, including the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale winner Fleur D'Iris and runner-up Zellie, this is a remarkably positive statement. 25/1 with Hills (only 14/1 with Ladbroke and Coral).
Owned by Juddmonte Stud, she is by Frankel out of multiple American Gr.1 winner Emollient (whose great-grand-dam was Coup De Genie, winner of the Gr.1 Prix Morny and Gr.1 Prix de la Salamandre, narrowly beaten in the 1994 1000 Guineas). |
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Raclette has a full brother with Ger Lyons called License - 1 from 1 in a 9.5f race in June. I think Raclette may be more of an Oaks filly but sometimes these types are sharp enough to win a Guineas before they move up.
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James
That is a very nice post and very interesting, for which thank you. |
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I've revised Native Trail's performance, I think it was more Gp2 than Gp1, meaning I have the Moyglare as one of the worst renewals in years. For me, the Cheveley Park fillies are well ahead. As things stand, I still rate Sandrine a few pounds ahead of Zain Claudette, as aside from Sandrine conceding her 3lbs last time I also have her running 4lbs below her Albany win. That said, Sacred Bridge looks a worthy fav, as she looked to put up a Gp1 performance in a Gp3 last time out. As for the Guineas, regardless of who wins today, even though I think these fillies are far ahead of the Moyglare form I wouldn't be confident about any of them being as good over a mile.
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good performance by the winner on only her
2nd run.Zain Claudette & Sacred Bridge very disappointing today,as was Sandrine.Although they were drawn 1,2,3. |
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Hi Figgis, interesting as always to read your thoughts. We'll simply have to agree to disagree about the Moyglare form. I think this year's renewal is well up to scratch, with Discoveries' official rating of 111 leaving her only a few pounds improvement to find over the winter to be a genuine Guineas contender and potential winner.
The big question now is whether the Cheveley Park winner Tenebrism will stay a mile. If she stays a mile next year she's going to be very hard to beat in the Guineas. Her turn of foot today was exceptional, and it was made even more impressive by the fact that the runner-up Flotus was not stopping at the line - the chasing pack were not making up any ground on Flotus, and yet Tenebrism made up several lengths and swept past her. After six months off the track since a maiden win this was a remarkable performance. She's clearly a very fast filly and it's too early to judge how much of a speed influence Caravaggio will prove to be: I guess he will get his share of winning milers eventually, but whether Tenebrism will get a mile is a complete unknown at this stage. 8/1 for the Guineas is plenty short enough, given the doubts. |
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If she stays a mile next year she's going to be very hard to beat in the Guineas
Jamesp, couldn't agree more. Even though I don't think the Middle Park was a vintage race Tenebrism still compares very favourably and, in my view, ran to a figure better than an average Guineas winner. Only a very small few have bettered it. But will she stay? I haven't a clue  |