Horse Antepost
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2022 1000 Guineas Newmarket
2022 1000 Guineas Newmarket
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Forgive me for not reading past the original post but - where we are now - I make Tenebrism 6/4.
On Timeform ratings and AOB's record and the 6 month intervals between her races. Am I missing any news of a setback? |
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How much are you having on her?
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Well I just had £50 @ 4.8 and now there's another £92 @ 4.9, which makes me think I won't have any more for now.
How much are you laying it for, Try My Best? |
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I would lay plenty at 6/4 UB.
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Forgive me for not reading past the original post but - where we are now - I make Tenebrism 6/4.
won't stay a mile |
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Ah yes, the 8th or even the 7th furlong may be a step too far for Tenebrism. That would halve her chances, from 6/4 to4/1. Thanks, price makes sense to me now. Fascinating race.
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It would appear they are leaning towards Newmarket with Tuesday after all …
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Tuesday with Inspiral out is sensible. The race is wide open, and she definitely stays. Has Hello You an alternative engagement? She's weak here.
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won't stay a mile
Has to be a doubt, but I don't know how anyone can be very confident that she won't. It's not like Caravaggio has only been siring sprinters. |
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Going to France,Homeless Songs.
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Good support for the fav now.
Predictions for SP? I'd go 15/8. |
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Dermot Weld… mentions nothing until the 5 day stage, how very considerate. I wonder what has prompted him to change his mind?
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Tuesday is weak. She's been matched at 13. A probable non-runner after pleasing trainer with her recent progress; stablemate Tenebrism has shortened as a result.
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Interesting booking of Tom Marquand for Zellie...
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Tuesday is running with Dettori on board; Moore's on Tenebrism. Another Tens Sovereigns, could it?
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Have split stakes on the two French fillies at 7/1 and 10/1. Also have a small antepost bet on Malavath at 14/1.
Vive La France  |
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There may be some light rain in the Newmarket area tomorrow morning, but I hope it stays away and the ground remains fast for Discoveries. I'm sticking with my two antepost bets, 5pts Discoveries at 20/1 (partly laid off) and 1pt Zellie at 50/1. (Plus 6pts in antepost non-runners.)
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The Cheveley Park Stakes form has just been dented by a disappointing performance from Flotus, beaten odds-on favourite at Newmarket this afternoon...
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Irish win for me with Jessie to land it with Discoveries..... Tennebrism may stay and rated the danger if she does. Good luck all.
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Flotus obviously well below the form she showed in the Cheveley. I don't think you can bring the whole race down because she hasn't gone on from that.
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True, but the Cheveley Park fourth Guilded and sixth Illustrating have also run nowhere near their Cheveley Park ratings this season, and the form is starting to look a bit wobbly.
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Fair enough. Decided it's a no bet race for me anyway, good luck with yours.
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To be honest, one can pick holes in the form of all the runners. At this stage it looks an open and competitive but not terribly high class renewal. Good luck all.
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How come it’s a no bet race for you Figgis. Thought you were very strong on Tenebrism like you were on Native Trail.
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I was always stronger on Native Trail as even as a 2yo there were no doubts about him getting the trip, and then he showed his well being in the Craven. I don't have a clue if Tenebrism will stay. It's very rare I back a 2yo for a classic that hasn't shown strong form over 7f. I was hoping she will stay, and I may have taken a chance at this price if I knew for sure that she'd at least trained on, but I don't. After watching the performances of the O'Brien horses in the Guineas I'm not sure even they know where their horses are at the moment.
Point Lonsdale was considered by them as a real Guineas contender last year. He doesn't even look a proper Gp2 horse on any of his performances. O'Brien said Luxembourg has more pace than his sire, well there was very little evidence of that yesterday. Tenebrism had some problems last season and was therefore sparingly raced. There was only one performance, the Cheveley Park, that I can rate her highly on and I have no idea how she has taken that race. Added to that the stamina doubt and the feeling that at this moment Coolmore seem to be taking an overly optimistic view of their runners, I'll pass on Tenebrism. |
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Backed Zellie each way(4 places).Hoping this daughter of Wootton Bassett will appreciate a strong run mile and can stay on into a place at least. Also backed and traded Cachet because I thought the price was too big.
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Wild Beauty for me in a very open race
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Have the 33s Ameynah ,nice price but thats about it .
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I don't understand the move for Ameynah, now the shortest-priced of the UK-trained runners. Sure, she's a promising and unexposed filly who won her maiden in good style, and Ghanaati had a similar profile before winning the 1000 Guineas in 2009 (at 20/1) for Barry Hills, so it's not an impossibility, but it would be an astonishing training feat by Roger Varian if he could win the Guineas with this filly. Presumably she's been working very impressively in preparation for this, but she's up against Group 1 winners this afternoon, and it requires a huge leap of faith to think that she could beat the lot of them.
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Jamesp, agreed
an astonishing training feat by Roger Varian Words you'll rarely, if ever, see, in my view  |
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If Teneberism gets the Mile she should go very close but
I think Prosperous Voyage will run a big race today,twice rnr/up to Inspiral the A/P Fav, at the end of last season. GL ALL |
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Discoveries very weak in the market this morning (17/2 from 11/2, was 9/2 yesterday), which is a bit puzzling since the ground will be perfect for her and her trainer has reportedly been very happy with her preparation. Interesting to see whether any money comes for her before the off this afternoon.
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Could be that all the money atm seems to be for
the Varian horse. |
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The drift is a concern but this stables runner's often drift so fingers crossed. At least not like Saluti yesterday drifting like the chelsea man's huge yacht, without any lifeboat. They knew and PM up.
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Sandrine a bit of a forgotten horse, if she gets the trip cant see why see wont be a player. Every reason to thing she wasn't at her best at the end of last season having started in May. She's the one for me.
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Highclere winner
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Highclere's website has crashed. Probably a lot of people like me wondering how much a leg in a nice looking yearling would cost them
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Well done to Cachet backers, but one can't help thinking that the long-time antepost favourite Inspiral would have won if she hadn't missed some crucial work in her preparation and been forced to miss the race. After all, she beat Cachet and Prosperous Voyage quite comfortably in the Fillies' Mile last autumn. It's a very hard race to assess form-wise, with a few of the runners still appearing a bit 'wintry', and it's too soon to write off some of the beaten runners. Zellie ran another puzzling race, off the bridle a long way out but staying on well and nearest at the finish, probably needing a longer trip. Tenebrism and Malavath seemed not to stay the mile.
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I was dismissive of those who claimed after the 2,000 Guineas that’s there was a golden highway on Saturday but in hindsight there clearly was a strip of ground near the far side that was quicker.
Fair play to James Doyle for exploiting his draw advantage to maximum effect. Cachet will need very quick ground if those tactics are to work elsewhere though. Zellie and Sandrine come out of the race with great credit and it will be interesting to see if Fabre targets the Coronation or the Prix Diane. |
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strange couple of days with all times slower than standard when at Newmarket there has apparently been no rain for weeks - suggests over-watering has taken place
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