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2020 prix de,l,arc de triomph
2020 prix de,l,arc de triomph
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A great shame the race was a week late as most of last week the weather was very good. It's only a horse race after all. No harm done.
But, I do have a consolation in Mogul, Sottsass and Japan - the last two are freebies, but no Enable; Stradivarius could not even win a 12f handicap, winning The ARC? Even the weather and his stamina prowess could not facilitate a win over the trip, I believe. |
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it's just a guess what the going will be like on Sunday - we often hear how soft it is at Longchamp then when you look at the times afterwards they are fairly standard.
for months the stable has been very vocal about the Arc being the target. after york they said this: "We were very nervous about running her in the ground because any time she got beat last year was in slower ground," said O'Brien, who revealed a conference call with owners John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith had taken place following the second race on Thursday, when Moore pointed out that by running Love at York a valuable lesson could be learned. "The advantage of running her in that ground was we would find out if we could run her on that sort of surface in the Arc," explained O'Brien. "Even though she handled it I would be very worried if we get stinking ground in France because she is a beautiful low-actioned filly. We now know she can get away with good to soft, but I wouldn't be sure about heavy ground." so it seems soft would be OK but their crystal ball has told them it's definitely going to be heavy on Sunday |
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I looked at Persian King, Figgis, when I was looking for a French horse but, no matter how hard I looked I couldn't find a miler who has ever won the race. Winter was the nearest to it recently but she had won a Gr1 over 10f and even then she was beaten out of the money. It could easily be one of those races but I won't curse if he wins because I never would have backed him.
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“When you start getting into extremes – especially when you start talking about heavy ground in France – we have to be realistic.
A_T, from that statement he appears to be under the impression that specifically French heavy ground is worse than most. When all the evidence points to it being far less extreme than the Curragh, just for one example. |
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persian king a massive brute by all accounts , is it possible he is only just fullfiling his true potential now . but the problem is no matter how good you are if you dont stay you dont stay . as said my main bet is sottsas (heavily involved each way at 20s ) and a more tentative bet on persian king at 33s more hope than confident with that one . had also backed raahibah at 12s but cashed out my bets and can now back her at a bigger price if i wish.
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Brigust, it's one of those bets where I wouldn't be surprised if he finished first or last. I feel the opposite about it to you though. If one of the others won I won't be kicking myself as apart from Enable, unless something improves greatly on the day I see the others as no good. On the other hand if Persian King won unbacked by me at this kind of price on the back of an effort I rate as clearly top class then I would be feeling a bit sick, regardless of any doubts I may have.
As to him being strictly a miler, well it's still up for debate. If he had remained in form after the French Guineas I'm sure the PDJC wouldn't have been the last time Fabre stepped him up last year. It seems this year his main concern was getting him back to top form before any change in trip was considered. |
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Persian King's got no chance - if he stayed 12f he'd already have been running that distance - as it is they've been keeping him to a mile. Kingmans don't stay
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I couldn't agree more Figgis, it may be that type of race this time. I was just saying I had a good look but I didn't back it. I can assure you I have discounted winners many times before.
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After the race (Autumn Stakes) the owner's representative Anthony Stroud said "He's a very good horse who has won his last three races. The jockey said he handled the ground really well but it turned out to be a tougher race than we thought. He certainly showed courage. He's out of a Dylan Thomas mare so we know he's going to stay further and I can see him going up in trip next season".
Just to give hope to people like me that he may stay they never really viewed him as strictly a miler even as a 2yo. We know he stays 9f and I don't think they ever had much doubt about the 10.5f of the PDJC. Obviously 12f is another matter, but regardless of whether he would've stayed it well as a 3yo I've believed for a long time that some horses' stamina limitations increase even after the age of 3. |
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I can assure you I have discounted winners many times before
Saumarez is on that still sticks in my craw from the very early betting years. I thought Belmez and Salsabil would probably be over the top and Saumarez was the next obvious pick. However I talked myself out of backing him at big odds purely because of stamina doubts. |
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Fabre's had many Arc winners as we know,
this don't look like it's been trained like one to me,anyway. GL |
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*is one
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Saumerez was trained by Cecil,originally.
I backed Epervier Bleu (2nd) A/P 12/1 that year. Saumerez could be backed on the day @33s. |
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My worst was Arcadian Heights in the Ascot Gold Cup. It had finished 2nd in the same race two years before but it wanted fast ground. This time was the only time since that day he had his ground and I told everyone I knew to back it. I never backed him ante-post because I was going to back him on the course and I took a nice bit with me. I was taking a group of girls to the races with me (they were all going to back him as well) but on the way one of them was really sick. We kept going and stopping but in the end I had to take them back home. You know the ending.
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Yes. It was his win in the GPDP where he clocked an impressive time performance that switched me on to him. I got burned fingers backing him in the Irish Champion where he ran no race. I was wary of getting him wrong again.
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Yes, Arcadian Heights, the equine Luis Suarez.
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I waited two years and it still wrankles. My funniest was one Boxing Day, I had four horses I had been waiting for all running on Boxing Day and all big prices. I worked out the bookies limits and drove round Abingdon, Oxford and Didcot to all main bookies putting just enough on to keep under the limit they allowed me to win. I never slept the night before and everything went like clockwork, almost. None were placed.
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Ryan has had two picks of horses and still not opted for the Derby winner, surely never happened before?
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figgis i'm with you on persian king i won't repeat what you said as had the same thoughts but he's certainly worth a small poke...believe or not i think he should let him stride out i think he will settle better. i wouldn't want him to restrain him
quick question on japan do you believe him to be gone? i did write on the other thread i thought he was doggy but don't get why they are running him here, he will like the going here and i just wonder whether the fast ground has hurt him a little...still pondering a wager but nothing looks any good at the odds bar persian king but i do have reservations about him if the going is very soft |
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just on love i'd say everyone and his aunt knew she wasn't running, especially judging by all the market moves for the other horses this week...normal junk from that crew
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Harry, regarding Japan, my opinion is he hasn't trained on from 3 to 4. I have his Eclipse run right up to his 3yo best but without the wfa allowance, if you see what I mean. I was expecting a big step forward in the KG, a bit like the improvement Highland Reel made from the Hardwicke to the KG a few years ago, but as we know he actually went backwards. O'Brien said he had sore feet there and was back on form for the Irish Champion, but in spite of Moore riding him we could see from the market that the yard didn't share O'Brien's declared optimism. It was obviously a better showing than in the KG but was still well below what he showed in the Eclipse.
It seems unlikely he's going to make the anticipated improvement this late in the season but if he did come back to that Eclipse form then it's certainly not impossible he could be involved in the finish, especially if Enable isn't quite on song, but it requires keeping the faith after his last two poor runs and mine has run out. |
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Harry, I should say that, Love aside, I've found most of O'Brien's runners this season about as predictable and consistent as I usually find Johnston's runners, so Japan will probably bolt up now I've given up on him
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"Longchamp has the potential to be turned into its sternest test by the time the gates open for Enable's attempt at Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe history on Sunday afternoon, as conditions threaten to be as deep as the years of Solemia in 2012 and Montjeu in 1999.
France Galop's director of racecourses Matthieu Vincent warned on Thursday that persistent rainfall forecast from Friday onwards could quickly turn the current very soft ground to holding or heavy." |
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Battash is out of the big sprint(going concerns),
get's as worse as they think,any more n/r's in this? |
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thanks for reply pal i have to say i didn't know about his feet problem amateur night...
he is wrangling me a tad, as for me he was finding nothing off the bridle in his races and becoming a complete hound but if he has had feet problems maybe that explains his weak finishing efforts, however those efforts have come on particularly fast going and he maybe just wasn't allowing himself to stride out...looking at his progression at 3 he pretty much had some cut in the ground on most outings and as much as i thought he sat out of the heat in last years arc his finishing effort was still very admirable in a gruelling race imo finally he gets some going and maybe we will here the shoe problem that got solved  it really is a desperate affair this for an arc for me to be looking at this rat |
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I poured over the race last night and concluded it is probably between Sottsass and Mogul. Sottsass has been aimed for this and ran close last season. There are small question marks, just as there are for all of the runners but Demuro has chosen him over Raabihah which, on form, looks sensible.
AOB made an early decision to remove Love possibly because Moore would rather ride Mogul on this ground. I am surprised no-one has mentioned that Mogul's time when he comfortably won the GPdP over course and distance would have won 19 of the last 20 Arc's. Of the older horses Stradivarius is second favourite that should tell us something. RM has got off Japan, who was bang there last year, to ride Mogul and I think that should be a tip. He was Moore's ride in the Derby and, for me, he looks the top 3 year old and must be bang there. |
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Mogul and Persian King have the most price discrepancies amongst the books -- 10/1 out to 20/1 via all points in between -- so are the obvious places to look for value. I like Mogul for the reasons @brigust1 states this morning but as a son of Galileo, he might get stuck in the mud (same sire as Love, pulled out following the rain).
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I got it down to the best older filly Enable, the best younger filly Raabihah, the best older colts (I cannot have Stradivarius) Sottsass and Japan and the best younger colt Mogul. Then worked from there. Demuro has chosen Raabihah and Moore has chosen Mogul. They all knew the conditions likely to be prevailing on the day.
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Demuro rides Sottsass,m8.
Guyon rides the filly. |
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Sorry Pen, you are right I knew he was riding Sottsass just wrote it down wrongly. I already said that in the previous post. That's what happens when you are trying to do two things at once.
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I hope Mogul can show his true potential here after so many false dawns, and positive sound bites by his trainer; Sottsss for atoning for last year's lofty expectation; Japan on a face-saving mission (he stepped on a stone, according to his trainer) post King George.
It will be an astounding result if Sottsass beats Japan for glory. |
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I am surprised no-one has mentioned that Mogul's time when he comfortably won the GPdP over course and distance would have won 19 of the last 20 Arc's
That's because all the times were faster than par as the going description was nonsense. The ground was clearly firm, not even good to firm. In my view the time performance would've only been good enough to just about win the Wings Of Eagles Derby and dead heat with Harzand. So a long way from what is usually required of an Arc winner. I suppose it can be argued that his last run was his best so he could improve again and, Enable aside, this is a potentially weak affair. |
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For me, Serpentine showed better form than Mogul ever has when winning the Derby. People said he was gifted an easy lead but, while it's true that the other jockeys should've been a bit closer, he was going a good pace and it was a decent enough performance on the clock. It was shown after that there was a lot of garbage behind, so in my view there was no fluke about the win. The question is how much it took out of him, as he was running on fumes at the end. O'Brien gave him a rest and didn't train him hard for France. The unknown is exactly how much was left to work on and whether the horse is still even capable of returning to the Derby form.
Even if he does return to that I still see him short of an average Arc winner but I'd choose him over Mogul. |
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This year's race very much reminds me of the 2012 edition. It was run on officially heavy ground and won by Solemia at 33/1 from Orfevre at 5/1. I have reason to not forget this race because I had a large bet on Orfevre and was very fortunate to collect on it only because I had put up a short price to lay it in-running and when it took up the running 1.5f out it looked over the winner only to run into the rail as it tired when it gave way to Solemia who had run straight and true to win by a neck.
That year, Solemia was 13th in the betting, the favourite was Camelot at 2/1. On RPR's Solmia was rated 17lbs behind Orfevre, 14lbs behind Camelot, 11 lbs behind St Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon,7lbs behind Shareta. In winning, Solemia was given a RPR 12lb higher than it's previous PB.Few would have expected that kind of improvement or that Orfevre would run 5lbs below its best PB,Camelot 22lb below its PB, or that SNA would run 23lb below. That's what heavy ground can do. It changes everything because to run well in it a horse must actually want it that soft, and "will act" is not enough. So, if it does actually come up heavy, and its beginiing to look that way with the forecast for heavy rain still to come, I will have to look beyond the favourites because to my mind, few actually want it heavy.I am expecting a turn up. |
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That is what I worried about with Raabihah who ran a similar time in the next race. You could be right about Serpentine, Figgis, but, at the end of the day, decisions have to be made. They probably already had the jockey booked so left him on Serpentine. I thought, when that happened, the stable jockey would still get the ride. Providing it wasn't overnight.
Waiting for horses to get their ground can be profitable Sandown, but how many of the three year olds will have experience on very soft ground? I do like mares on heavy ground, especially over the jumps. Enable and Raabihah are the only two females running on Sunday. And, in Solemia's Arc the females filled 4 of the first 6 places home that day. |
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I think whatever beats Enable will win the Arc - she's easily the most likely winner IMO. I think Serpentine's win in the Derby was a fluke - they certainly didn't expect it and will probably try the same tactic on Sunday and if it fails it will have acted as a pacemaker.
Apart from Mogul everything else is a known quantity - the Rouget pair look well exposed (re. Raabihah - Dermot Weld hasn't even bothered to enter the Vermeille winner) Only threat I see to Enable is Mogul - easily the fastest time in the Arc trials - I'm convinced the ground is just an excuse for withdrawing Love who probably hasn't been showing it at home and won't be seen again on a racecourse. The wild card is the ground as Sandown wisely points out - if it is genuinely heavy then it might become a bit of a lottery. |
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It was run on officially heavy ground
Sandown, would you personally have called that heavy ground? It was certainly soft but not as slow as Montjeu's Arc which was still only borderline heavy. a horse must actually want it that soft I certainly wouldn't say Montjeu wanted it that soft, he just acted on it. Solemia was definitely a freak unexpected result and yes I would have to say I think it was mainly due to the ground that Solemia showed improvement, but in most races with soft ground, providing the runners do act on it of course, the winning margins are generally exaggerated, rather than whole the result being turned on its head. I made excuses for Orfevre because of the ground and backed him the following year, but for me he ran exactly to the pound on both tries. That Solemia Arc was weaker than usual on the day with a few of the others having hard campaigns or not going into the race in top form, such as Camelot. |
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Apart from Mogul everything else is a known quantity
A_T, I'm curious why you think Mogul is an unknown quantity after 5 starts and 3 defeats this year? I accept that he goes into the race on a career best but it's still pretty moderate form and not a huge leap on what he'd done in the past. |
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I do like mares on heavy ground, especially over the jumps. Enable and Raabihah are the only two females running on Sunday.
And, in Solemia's Arc the females filled 4 of the first 6 places home that day. brigust1 It's an interesting theory but it doesn't hold up when you look at large samples. With a 60,000 horse sample for all flat races, I found a marginal difference in favour of males.Taking just grade 1 races and a 4000 sample there was a marked edge in favour of males over females in soft/heavy ground (12.6% win ratio vs 9.7%) |
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A_T, I'm curious why you think Mogul is an unknown quantity after 5 starts and 3 defeats this year?
I think as a 3yo he is entitled and expected to make improvement - he could be one that is a late developer on the racecourse after showing potential at home - we know the WFA scale expects continued improvements from 3yos but it's not an exact science and just maybe Mogul's improvements have come in the last couple of months. Rabihaah is anotheer that might just improve enough. With the older horses there's no reason to think any of them will improve enough. |