Horse Antepost
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2020 prix de,l,arc de triomph
2020 prix de,l,arc de triomph
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Replies: 395
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explain how laying sottsass is potentially life changing san
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When you apologise for your rude abusive language directed at myself I will enlighten you.
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i apologise for the rude/abusive comment directed at you.
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have you been enlightened yet charlt?
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no
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I also want to win life changing money by backing a 1/10 shot. how do I do it?
can you enlighten us san? |
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Marvellous news to see the hugely bent Team Coolmore on the wrong end for once....
No ridiculous pace, no team tactics, no collusion between jockeys, that we have seen over and over, a refreshing change... Bloody marvellous. No tears here I'm afraid. Too bad, feel sorry for punters no one else. Much more straightforward for Lanfranco now. |
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huge irony that the excuse for withdrawign Love wouldn't have been needed - should never have had 5 runners in the race and has been duly punished - the Gods of Racing have spoken
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Have been backing both Love and Enable for a few weeks effectively coupled at a shade of odds on. Two of the best fillies I have seen. Love is now out and I am left with Enable who in my opinion goes to Paris in better form than last year based upon her performance at Kempton and the very positive comments from John Gosden re her preparation and general wellbeing. So I hope she wins.
However, when two weeks ago it seemed that the weather was going to deteriorate I picked three savers who all get me a round of drinks and in no particular order, Sottsass, looked to be coming back to his best at Leopardstown and Demuro sticks with him instead of the Rouget filly. Stradivarius, I am old enough to remember Ardross just failing in the Arc and Stradivarius will relish the ground and a stamina test. In Swoop, probably a leap of faith but they say the ground and trip will definitely suit. If anything else wins I have sh*t the bed. |
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Well a a very tricky affair betting wise I’ve had a saver on Persian king but really wanted better going for him. I maybe mad but I think they should let him stride out. With all the O’Brien runners taken Out pace isn’t easy to find So think Frankie will probably be prominent and the great mare will have her chance she couldn’t of wished for a better opportunity to win the race for a third time my problem is I think she may of regressed just a little this season but is enough for me to have a decent ew bet on Sottsass.
I backed him in Ireland and he clearly wasn’t 100 percent but he will be today. He took a slight false step over the path that day and just felt it was enough to affect him for a period of that race. Not knocked about I think I’m getting a fair price today to at least get in the money in what maybe a tactical affair and he is fairly uncomplicated whereas I feel a horse like Stradivarius whom has he ideal conditions, has a wide gate and maybe a hostage. I felt he would of been better suited if the O’Brien runners had made this a war of attrition I do however feel he can at least get in the money as is a very good horse. I was going to take a shot at sovereign as felt he could run well at huge odds but anyway am happy to bet the Rouget horse even though conditions are not ideal. I cannot get my head round the German horse at the odds but he may run into the money, if this was normal going I’d make enable nearer to 4/7 never mind 11/8 against these horses so I wish her and the other great horse the very best as they have both been cracking for the game |
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Enable the obvious choice on form at the trip, but win or lose I don't see her as a value bet at this stage of her career even against a weak field.
Persian King is my only bet, in the knowledge that he may not back up and with a doubt about the trip. I would rather back him as the class horse though in a field that contains a fav offering no value, a good 2 miler and what I see as a lot of dross in Gp1 terms. |
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Stradivarius, I am old enough to remember Ardross just failing in the Arc and Stradivarius will relish the ground and a stamina test.
I hadn't really realised how ancient you really are felt  |
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Figg if she is no value against these horses what price do you make her out of interest
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This is turning into a farce. The best race in the world has just turned into a lottery, and no possibility of winning despite holding a valid ticket.
Some bookies are not voiding affected bets and returning stakes eg 'billies'. |
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Harry, I'd make her no shorter than 11/8, which is somewhere around the price she is, not the price I want to take. If I was confident she'd put up her best form I'd make her odds on. I don't believe she ran to her best in the race last year. I take the point that she might've done a bit too much early on in a race run at a fast early pace but I don't believe it made the difference between winning and losing. And I certainly don't buy the connections' excuse about the ground, as she'd won on softer ground than that as a 3yo and put up a faster performance when doing so.
In her favour this year is that she's had an easier prep, so that could make the difference. Against that is she's now a 6yo. Of course that doesn't mean she can't win as a 6yo but many horses lose either a touch of speed or their consistency at that point. If she wins we'll get people saying how could people not take 5/4 for a near certainty, but I can live with her winning and not backing her at the price. |
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Harry, but I'd only make her odds on because of the doubts about Persian King. Pound for pound I make his latest form better than anything Enable has ever done.
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Unless that first winner is some kind of world beater (highly doubtful) that time says no worse than soft ground and a lot better than even yesterday's early races.
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Yes I agree she has her chance I’ve just never had a sheckle on her so won’t be going to the funeral, although I do feel this is an extremely weak field..so won’t be offering excuses if she gets it done but I wouldn’t be a layer as just don’t feel I have much running for me. A desperate affair for an arc imo just lacking any decent 3 year olds although rabihah was certainly given a trail last time but hard to imagine she will love this ground
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Yes ground doesn’t look desperate to me which is good news
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the Lagardere comparitively much faster than last year's event over a mile. Arc ground could even be better than last year.
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I’m with you with Persian king I’d make him favourite if it wasn’t the distance..I just hope he rides him Prominently and doesn’t strangle him as you could be clear if allowed to stride out...for me he is the top class horse in the race bar the mare and the stayer I make Sottsass 3rd best in front of strad
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Harry, actually I have it the same. Persian King clear best but doesn't matter how good you are if you don't stay, Enable (on her best form) next best then Sottsass ahead of Stradivarius. Not sure if Sottsass will follow up that latest best form but if he does he shouldn't be far away.
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The heart wants Enable to make more history (& a few £££)
If she is to lose? I hope it's the Fr 3yo filly Raahbiha ( some ante p small plays at big odds) Also a few plays today: Raahbiha without the fav, & to finish in the 4. As long as One of these girls win I'll be happy. Gd luck with your bets lads. |
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Harry, actually I have it the same. Persian King clear best but doesn't matter how good you are if you don't stay,
maybe they should have run Battaash then they could say best horse just didn't stay |
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Harry, taking last year's from into account I'd actually have Deidre third best with her allowance, but as a 6yo she hasn't hit that mark this season and was well below par last time. Not one I'd back but I can see why some would make a case for her at a big price.
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maybe they should have run Battaash then they could say best horse just didn't stay
You think PK has as much chance of staying as Battaash would? That Fabre really must be a clown then  |
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Figgis, gl today. I am with you. PK to win and Deidre to run into 4th.
small cover on stradivarius |
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Yeah on her best form deidre could run ok always thought she liked it on top but she hasn’t turned up this season. The only rag I see running ok is gold trip but he has an awful lot to find
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Charlton, I see it as a Desert Orchid type situation. The fastest horse in the race but all the experts saying he can't possibly stay. Unfortunately it was early days for me and I bowed to the so called experts and had only a very minor bet on DO. Let's hope we get the same result but I win a bit more cash this time
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Sorry Harry a bit late but just returned from the National Stud coffee shop following some brunch and noticed your post.
Yes ancient, though young at heart and everything still works although somewhat slower than yesteryear. |
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2 runs ago I backed Persian King,@1M(Hvy),he was hammererd.
When he won lto Pinatubo was making ground up from miles back.GL to his backers but I would be very surprised if this wins this today on the ground and the trip. |
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I think that the distance of the 7f race is actually shorter than advertised and taking the 8f race into account I can't see that the ground is any worse than soft. certainly not a bog. However, it is softer than last year. Gosden hasn't exuded great confidence in Enable and I think that he considers Stradivarius maybe can beat her.I think she is a rotten price but I am not laying her.
Every horse in the race has negatives for me but the one I am going with has just the one negative which is on form as measured in collateral ratings he has to improve quite a bit to win even an average Arc.. That horse is In Swoop I've had a shot at rating him on time in the German Derby and whilst I'm not uber confident, the time standard I have used was supported yesterday by how Half Light ran. On an allowance using that horse I can upgrade In Swoop to a 123 rating which puts him in with a shout.He has soft ground form, (ran well on firm last time) will improve for the run and a faster pace. He may not get a run if he is caught on the rail from his no 1 draw but at the prices he is worth an each way bet. |
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had cashed out on most of my raahibah bets but had to have another go at 12s each way.
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oh my god ..................had it right off !
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looking forward to next years race, ok we havent a clue to the three year old yet, but sottsass is a horse that must be in the reckoning, coolmore imo will keep japan in training , and todays winner must enter calculations if running, enable surely will be retired, and cant think of this years 3 year olds that can step up to this class unless massive improvement, crystal ocean retired,i would have liked to see deirdrie running today reckon was a fab e/w bet, anyway this years race was won and the 2nd were in the 1st 4 last year, therefore im going for the 2020 running with japan and sottsass , stronger horses and better ground and more runners would suit the latter.Come on betfair open a market. Ok one longshot of next years 3 year olds for this, victor ludorum
and then i decided sottsass wouldnt stay   |
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Sottsass,get in there.
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A consolation for messing up the Derby and Leger; Sottsass finally atoned.
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"I have layed as much as my bank allows, I have topped up numerous times just to lay Sottsass, I have and will never again have such a big liability. Chaps I urge you to cash everything in and lay Sottsass, never look back, potentially life changing chance here. Sottsass will not win"
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slowest time for decades - not just the ground either. typical French race with the Brits caught flat-footed
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Wd Sottsass backers....I know some of you have been fans of him since last year.
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