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2020 prix de,l,arc de triomph
2020 prix de,l,arc de triomph
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Replies: 395
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Mr B have you made that opinion on 1 race, have you hacked my account? Do you ever lose? or perhaps all you bets result in + inpact on your account. Be honest Mr B. Lol
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To be fair to Frankie, Enable (and oddly Gold Trip) looked like they were ploughing up the course as they went over it while the others didnt seem to so much
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think what lot didnt take on board is the run behind magical and the then 129 rated ghayiath at leopardstown over a trip too short which was effectivly a prep for this btn under 3l giving 3 pound to the winner and 1 1/4 lenghts to the then rated best horse in europe over a trip which suited the winner and 2nd ,sottsas was under the cosh a good 3 out and cutting them down at the finish which indicated he would be better for the race. the proximity of armoury in 3rd had some saying if he cant beat a rag he wont win an arc but as said the irish race was a prep .
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I'm not sure Frankie made the right choice holding her up when the pace was clearly going to be slow after the start. I think it was a lazy decision. I've never had a problem with her on soft ground and I have never had a problem with her getting the trip I just think their mindset before the race may have been negative. I know from experience the best way to get a horse beaten that doesn't act on the ground is to go slowly because they aren't going over it they are going into it and then when they are asked to quicken they cannot get the purchase. AOB summed it up once by saying they cannot get the traction.
Frankie should have ignored the front runner and gone on. She may have been beaten, I am not saying he would have won, but she would not have been beaten by many maybe even only one or two. |
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well done sottsass backers,how many horses have come back and won after they were beaten in the race the previous year?
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Waldgeist.
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3 in the last 5
Found, Waldgeist and todays winner.Think Allez France may have done it aswell. |
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Rainbow Quest did but he did win
on a DSQ |
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I think whichever way Enable had been ridden the result would have been the same. She clearly is not the same horse since last year's renewal.
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sykes10
04 Oct 20 20:31 Joined: 11 Nov 06 | Topic/replies: 101 | Blogger: sykes10's blog well done sottsass backers,how many horses have come back and won after they were beaten in the race the previous year? Rate reply: think the stat i have seen was none, except if they were 2nd/3rd/4th previously |
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true brigust but he supposedly went too soon last year you can imagine the flak he would have aimed at him if he went on very early and was beaten.
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I am not talking about quickening, Foyles, that can take it out of them quickly, I think if she had just gone a good gallop, at her pace, she would have seen off a lot them. It is when you ask them to quicken, some can but not all, on that type of ground.
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we will never know brig ,j gosden had enough doubts beforehand and said it was a huge ask for her and she was too short in the betting for the task.
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I am not sure she would have won, I never backed her, I just think he lessened her chances and probably looked after her. If he thought she wasn't going to win why give her a hard race.
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The slowest run Arc since 88 & 87 (Tony Bin & Trempolino) which suited those on the pace such as the winner. It was especially slow early on and the sprint for home didn't suit strong stayers like In Swoop who nevertheless showed improved form whereas Sottsass can't be rated any higher than it's previous best.The ground didn't result in going allowances like that for Solemia's year although clearly it didn't suit Enable or Stradivarious. If Mogul handles this type of ground (unknown) then he must have gone close if he had run. Persian King vindicated Fabre's decision to run him although in a fast run 12f race I can't see him repeating the form. 10f looks the perfect trip for him. Not one of the best Arc's but still a great race.
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from memory I thought Trempolino when he won
rboke the Arc or even course record.? |
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he also came from last more or less.
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The idea is to pick the best horse on the day, not the best horse in the race. Sottsass was clearly that and well done to those who backed him. Not the winner's fault that they didn't go a faster pace, but regardless of the poor time I would say it was still probably just about the worst standard that I can remember. As Sandown says, the winner didn't improve on his previous best. As I said earlier on the thread, his run behind Magical was his best run to that point and wasn't a bad standard, but Ghaiyyath was definitely below par that day and I'd argue even Magical has run better. So it's a bit disappointing (to anyone but his backers) that that level proved good enough to win an Arc, but, as A_T said, it can often be a funny race with its position in the calendar, when a few of the classy horses have gone over the top. Also this year's events leading up to the race being stranger than most.
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Actually, looking back through the winners I was being unfair about this year's race. I can see during the 80s and 90s there were a few of a similar level and even a bit worse. I would say it was just about the worst level this century, but can't expect a great race every year.
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To expand on my last post, the pace shape of this year's race most resembles that of Tony Bin's in 1988 and the ground that year was on the soft side but not as soft as yesterday. The reference to Trempolino was that the early part of that race was as slow as yesterday (after going allowance) but it was on firmish ground so in actual times it was therefore faster. Maybe it dosn't illuminate the analysis but slow early pace races occur irrespective of the ground but with similar effects on outcomes. Trempolino did finish fast but in terms of pace profile and going allowance, Tony Bin fished faster. Confusing, isn't it?
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yes I do know races are run differently,early pace ,slow pace
and even gallop etc. I personally aint' into times,some swear by them,that's what they do.Good luck to them. I also know some rate horses on times better than horses that have beaten them by the way the race has been run.As to your remark ,confusing,is'nt?,no it is'nt and I find that very patronising. |
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Ah Tony Bin, my first ever arc, yesterday only 2nd one I have missed since. Hope to be back next year.
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Did anyone know Coolmore had a stake in Sottsass?
They always win imo |
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Nothing I wrote was aimed at anyone personally. I said "confusing" because making comparisons showing that a fast time can be "slower" when a going allowance is used, is confusing. So try to be less prickly penzance. Your comment is the kind of thing that keeps me away from the forum these days because it is so unnecessary.
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Blame it on Covid.
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Grow up boys, difference of opinion is actually what makes Betfair so successful.
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sykes10
well done sottsass backers,how many horses have come back and won after they were beaten in the race the previous year? Plenty... 12, and I may have missed a few  Corrida was 3rd, then 1st, 1st.Motrico was 4th, then 1st, 1st. Massine was 2nd, 1st Djebel was 3rd, 1st Nuccio was 2nd, 1st Oroso was 6th, 1st Exbury was 6th, 1st Allez France was 2nd, 1st Ivanjica was 12th, 1st All Along was 15th, 1st Sagace was 11th, 1st Tony Bin was 2nd, 1st |
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That was only a review up to 2015
You can add these Found 9th, 1st Waldgeist 4th, 1st Sottsass 3rd, 1st I think that is 16 horses beaten in the Arc who later won it or just about every horses that ran in it again Stats quoted (invented) by people who do not look up the info are not much use. |
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I think that is 16 horses beaten in the Arc who later won it
or just about every horses that ran in it again Seriously impressive stats kincem. Thank you for digging those out. I would have given Sottsass a better chance than I did if I had known. Those figures are a must for future races. They suggest that the trainers involved learned something the first time round and put it right. |
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as said the irish champion stakes was a serious run form sottsas less than 3l behind magical and ghayiaath ,2 top class horses at that trip ,also last year in the arc sottsass came there at the furlong pole and to some (me among them) thought he didnt stay when enable quickened and waldgeist stayed on . but after watching the race back several times japan who was staying on couldnt get past sottsass who actually kept on strongly that convinced me he would stay and the slower pace certainly helped . although i had a very decent bet on the winner (my biggest ever ) i dropped a bollack by holding back when he went under 20s .
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That's kind of ignoring all the ones who tried again and failed though, such as Magical, Way To Paris, Order Of St George, Capri, Cloth Of Stars, New Bay, Dolniya just from 2015. I think just like most stats, poor criteria compared to form going into a race.
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Just to cheer everyone up.
I put my predictions on boards.ie, 1st place down to last place. My prediction 1st Sottsass, 2nd In Swoop. And I did the obvious - Euro 200 on In Swoop at 12s+ |
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This was one of my posts on boards.ie.
I keep an Excel file of the draw in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, all finishers from 1971 to 2019 (47 years, 1982 missing). On fast ground a low draw is favoured. On soft/heavy the draw is less important. I banded the 47 years into fast (14 races), good (16 races), slow ground (17 races). Average draw of fast ground winners (5.5/16.3 starters), good (8.1/18.2 starters), slow (10.4/18.0 starters). This morning I added another column: age of the winner. Average age of fast ground winners (3.35), good (3.44), slow (3.71). Number of wins age 3,4,5: fast (11,1,2), good (10,5,1), slow (6,10,1) 3yos do best on fast ground. 4yos do best on slow ground (even though they carry more weight). Winners fast (4yo: Treve; 5yo: Marienbard; Tony Bin) Winners good (5yo: Waldgeist) Winners slow (3yo: Treve; Dalakhani; Sagamix; Workforce; All Along; Montjeu) The 2019 race won by Waldgeist was 30th fastest of the 47 races indicating the ground was not as slow as many thought. |
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Figgis
That's kind of ignoring all the ones who tried again and failed though, such as Magical, Way To Paris, Order Of St George, Capri, Cloth Of Stars, New Bay, Dolniya just from 2015. I think just like most stats, poor criteria compared to form going into a race. If you could restate that post clearly I will respond. The horses you mention did not all run in 2015. In 5 out of 7 cases they were beaten by horses who were repeating their 3yo win as a 4yo, or were beaten by horses who had been beaten as 3yo but were now winning as 4yo. From 1920 to 2014 (93 races) 712 4yo or older ran; 859 3yo. There could only be 93 winners. 39 winners as 4yo or older: 15 lost as 3yo and won as 4yo. |
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I meant Arcs just from 2015 onward, as you had said the first review was only up to 2015.
In 5 out of 7 cases they were beaten by horses who were repeating their 3yo win as a 4yo, or were beaten by horses who had been beaten as 3yo but were now winning as 4yo It doesn't matter what types those 5 were beaten by as none of them even finished second on their next Arc attempts, they were all beaten by other horses regardless of the winner. I backed a non stayer in this year's Arc so I claim no victory (although he was fair odds early on for a place). But for anyone who thought Enable was worth taking on and was positive Persian King wouldn't stay, Sottsass had the next best form in the book. Stradivarius was so short because some people were convinced it was going to be a swamp, but I doubt too many people would've expected Stradivarius to get as close to Magical as Sottsass had. It was this year's form that gave the greatest clue to Sottsass' chances, not that he ran in the race last year. |
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kincem bad luck in backing in swoop and not sottsass ,always the way the one you dont do will always bite you on the ar$e , a few weeks ago i put a ante post each way double in a william hillss shop and used one of those bet machines for the 1st time ,couldnt work the machine and asked the woman / manager to do it for me told her lisnagar oscar and saint roi £25 each way double when she gave me the slip it had lisnagar oscar and saldier double .............thought about changing it back to saint roi but you know what would have happened so went home got another £50 and made sure she got it right lisnagar and saint roi .
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