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These 360 comments are related to the topic:
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
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Replies: 360
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figgis do you think ten sovereigns would of won at any trip?? i thought he gave no real running myself considering his believed ability. everyone will have there own view of course
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We have different methodologies, Figgis, that's for sure
Yes that's true and fair enough. I haven't done anything unusual with the going allowance this time though. I agree with you that Dawn Approach ran the fastest Guineas since Frankel. I think we both allowed for the later rain whereas most didn't. But if MG is only 1lb below him that means you would have Pogo running a time only around 13lbs behind Dawn Approach, who as we agree put up a great Guineas time. Different pace in the Guineas or not that just doesn't seem credible. |
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figgis do you think ten sovereigns would of won at any trip?
The honest answer is I just don't know Harry. It's easier to know with a front runner like Mozart was, as you can see what he had earlier on in the race. However when a horse is restrained somewhat and not allowed to use its natural pace in the part of the race when it's at its strongest I think it can be deceptive. I think it was Stravinsky where I wasn't entirely sure until he was dropped back, and there have been others like that. So I wouldn't say he hasn't trained on but the jury is still out. I'd also bear in mind that O'Brien has probably been trying to train him for the mile, so that may have had an effect on what we saw. |
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It's become credible to me Figgis. I've found speed figures are class- and pace-sensitive to a huge extent. Handicappers routinely get in the 70s but I hardly ever give more than a 90 even in a group 1.
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Ok. I have it as slightly the worst time Guineas since I've been doing my own figures, 1lb slower than Island Sands. I have him improving 2lbs on his efforts last season. It might seem like I'm stubbornly trying to do the horse down but I have no interest in trying to prove a previous opinion was right about a horse. I'm only interested in getting it right for the future. I've changed negative opinions about many in the past when I believe they've improved, such as The Fugue, Found and Cracksman. I can't rate the race any higher without coming up with too many implausible figures for the other races.
If his next race is the Irish version then even though I rate him low, the dilemma is he will probably face many of the same runners, or runners not considered good enough for Newmarket so it's whether to oppose him on those terms. I still think I would though at a short price, as there can only be so long he can get away with that sort of form in Gp1s. |
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Best time for several years
walofs |
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don't agree then?
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so much easier than having to go through the golden highway argument which invalidates all times, all form, all analysis etc, so I chose the lazy way out and in three weeks time we'll see that the form today is meaningless
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Charlton, I wouldn't say the form is meaningless, just very poor for the grade. Comparing the times doesn't suggest that those on the rail had their performance enhanced in any way. The time for the winner is comparatively moderate, whereas you'd expect it to be artificially fast. If anything it was that those on the other part of the track were hindered, or maybe a few just ran poorly on the day. Many of them are just no good anyway.
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Figgis, you guys do times and I do trips. I can tell you that was a falsely run race and hence the form will not work out. I will lay 70% of my bank on that come 25 may
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absolutely pathetic what I did there, ended up backing five horses in the end, and didn't have a penny on the horse I instinctively thought would win. I won't even blame Figgis for leading me astray with all his garbage talk of a stone in hand and magna grecia being a slowboat.
just go with your instincts. I knew when the horse won his maiden, that he was a serious tool. I have a worrying tendency to overthink it. |
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Figgis next job- user carpet salesman
the guy could sell ice to eskimos  |
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ten sovereigns is massively overrated, calyx is in a totally different ballpark to him and will rip him another **** at royal ascot
then again come race time I'll have probably overthought it and backed ten sovereigns  |
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a stone in hand
He does have a stone in hand, just over 2f shorter, which is all I ever claimed magna grecia being a slowboat I still say he is a slowboat. However he was still the third fastest horse going into the race behind TS and Advertise, who were both suspect stayers. It's just that the rest were even slower boats he was a serious tool Good luck with that opinion in future. Personally he'll need to do more than beat King of Change 2.5 lengths to convince me  |
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just admit that you were wrong Figgis. it might help you mate.
slowboats don't win guineas, however "bad" a renewal they supposedly are. (and that's according to some, not the majority.) anyway it's not your fault, it's my decision. my mistake. people like howellsy big up the forum which is fair enough but I think it can also lead to overthinking, which in some ways can be harmful. like just make a decision and stick with it, but if you keep discussing everything back and forth a million times... anyway that's just my opinion. will stay off here for a bit. if I've learned anything from the forum, is that it's about listening to your own voice. you don't need forums really, they just over complicate. |
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he was a serious tool
Good luck with that opinion in future. Personally he'll need to do more than beat King of Change 2.5 lengths to convince me I wouldn't have needed the future, if I had just listened to it today. |
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slowboats don't win guineas, however "bad" a renewal they supposedly are
Well it's obviously a comparative remark. Would I consider Guineas winners like Island Sands and Refuse To Bend slowboats in a Gp3? Of course not. Compared to the better Guineas winners or even average winners yes I consider them slowboats. |
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but I think what I was saying about stamina in this race is very relevant. sprinter types don't tend to win the guineas. or not that often.
you made the comparison with zafonic but he was already proven over longer trips. anyway you made a judgement call and you were wrong (on ts, probably because of the trip) but yeah fair play, you put it up beforehand. |
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anyway you made a judgement call and you were wrong
I thought he would stay the trip so yes I was totally wrong, hands up. I did only ever say I thought he would and always made it clear from the outset that I wasn't massively confident about his stamina at all. I said if he didn't stay then he might as well be 100/1 no matter how much faster he was. For me at the time, it seemed well worth the risk at the price which was more than double what he ended up. In hindsight, as I posted earlier, I might not do similar in future as unproven stamina becomes too much guesswork, at least for me it does when the horse has only been 6f, although that would again depend on the price I'm getting. As I said once before on here, there are 2 types of punters. Ones who think everything has some kind of chance and the challenge is to beat the book. If they think a horse has an evens chance and back it at 2/1 then it doesn't automatically mean they failed when one gets beat. They're expecting 50% to lose anyway. Then there are those who feel all races are a puzzle with an inevitable outcome to be solved. When a result is known there was a route to the winner that should have been found. These 2 types of punters are on totally different paths. |
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yes but anyway he didn't stay so it's all immaterial now
or maybe he did stay and just didn't train on. who knows |
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personally I think ten sovereigns is slightly overrated. there was just nothing that really impressed me about that middle park run.
magna grecia impressed me more when he won his maiden. I tend to go on visual impression and my gut instinct and that's what I thought at the time. that he was a serious horse. your thing about the punters only is really relevant to my subsequent losing the plot with my idea that "I just have a feeling that O'Brien won't win this one" which of course is totally ridiculous and relates to overthinking. my intial impression was correct. |
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or maybe he did stay and just didn't train on. who knows
I don't know that either. At the moment I'm on the side that he'll put up a big performance in a sprint this year. I opposed Gleneagles when he won. My thinking was the horse had a big reputation and still hadn't been bottomed so potentially could still be anything, but had done nothing to prove he was up to winning a Guineas. However he did win the Guineas and on the day I rated him up with O'Brien's previous best winners of the race, which for me were Henrythenavigator and George Washington. O'Brien even thought he was the best miler he'd had. Things went pear shaped after the SJP but I don't think that should detract from the performance he gave in the Guineas. So I have no problem changing my opinion about one I got wrong in a Guineas. Magna Grecia is different. There is no way I can rate this Guineas anything but mediocre. I sometimes kick myself for missing a winner but not here. If I'd known for sure that TS wouldn't stay, that Advertise wouldn't train on or get the trip (which I pretty much suspected anyway) and that none of the others in the field would improve whatsoever, apart from the Hannon horse, then yes I would've picked MG. I thought, wrongly, it was quite big odds on all those things happening. Particularly that none of the field would improve past the standard MG had set last year. That's exactly what happened though, in my view. There are many times where I have a horse rated best of those most likely to run their race, but not up to the usual standard of winner. Sometimes they do win but more often something improves past them. This one won, but when a similar situation comes up in future I probably still wouldn't back it unless I thought the odds were too good to miss. Anyway, we'll see in future how good MG is. If I'm wrong about him I'll own up, but not on this showing. |
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Anyone mention what the fools who own train involved in Persian King were thinking?
Form there for all to see,was before and is more so now.... |
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Mg a worthy winner for me,never in any doubt from about 4f out.
Newmarket not a fair track... |
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I still don't get why you are so negative on this horse Figgis. what is he doing that's so wrong on the clock? the 2000 guineas was the fastest time on the clock yesterday at that meeting. is it his sectionals, his final times, or the way he looks at you?
 what is it???  |
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when Gleneagles won the guineas, he clocked a slower time than magna grecia.
maybe they didn't go so much pace in that race, but the ground was probably slower yesterday than in Gleneagles guineas... |
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jedi i commented on the magna grcia thread that fabre said " he is in the english guineas but " we will wait to see if any of the better horses come out " well too darn hot came out but fabre still ducked the race ,think he may have been wary of taking on the winner again .
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what i saw in his maiden win was not a slow horse but one who quickened up like a good un! his next race was against a very smart more exp performer and he was just beaten ,the futerity was a bit less impressive on paper but after being behind he quickened well and won all this was achived in about a month .
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taking magna grecia on again ^^^^
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what is it?
His Futurity win was up to standard for the race. I am not saying he was a poor winner of that race. Just that the race doesn't usually throw up a Guineas winner unless it's a well above average winner of the race. Saxon Warrior was an above average winner, nothing special but better than MG, and he went on to win a poor Guineas. It was a poor Guineas but still better than the one MG has just won, in my view. The best time on yesterday's card, relatively speaking, was the Palace House. Using this as a guide to the ground then the Guineas becomes a slow time compared to the norm. Ok, we could possibly excuse the Guineas as the ground may have been a bit slower further out than 5f, or the rain got more into the ground later on the card. However the time for the 6f handicap throws the latter excuse out of the window. Maybe we could talk up the 6f handicap winner as a much improved horse who won well and will go on to better things, so the Guineas time doesn't look so poor. However the most damning is the last race, a handicap run over the same trip. Unless Pogo is a Gp3 animal in a handicap and the rest are well above average for the grade the Guineas time is poor compared to the norm for the race. Now even though I'm a time man I fully concede times aren't always a true barometer in every race. Unfortunately we have King Of Change in second which does nothing to suggest the form may be better than the time performance. We have Ten Sovereigns who either didn't stay or hasn't trained on or both. Who knows? Some people are suggesting he was just overrated so maybe they think King Of Change would've hammered the Middle Park runners. We also have the other runners who had never run a good time themselves and appeared to be disadvantaged on the track. Last year I had people telling me that I was crazy to downgrade Saxon Warrior, an unbeaten future superstar who was a shoe in for the Derby. Well, until proven otherwise I'm saying this Guineas winner is worse than him |
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I see post race Aiden said
ts was NOT a hopeful for the race Going Sprinting What a surprise NOT |
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Calyx and TS in the Commonwealth Cup; betting is 6/4 and 5/1 respectively.
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Calyx too good for TS
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yeah good call with saxon warrior figs
you said that horse would regress and he did, myself and others didn't see it at the time |
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LR, on watching the Guineas, after the initial disappointment of TS not staying my next thoughts were that I'd also got MG wrong and he must be better than I thought. When trying to rate the card at first I put him on and a reasonable figure and tried to work from that but things just didn't add up. I was a bit shocked how low the winning figure ended up but that's how it fits. I suppose we've been a bit spoiled in recent years with some very good performances. I thought last year's below par race was a blip and still thought there was virtually no chance of a present day Guineas being won by an Island Sands level performance. I was wrong.
There is always a dilemma when you have a race where you rate the best horse (or in this case the best known stayer), let's say, 120, but the average past winning figure for the race is nearer 130 and there are some young unexposed runners in the race. Do you go with the 120 horse and take a chance on nothing else improving or leave it thinking something will progress past it? More often than not when I have backed such a horse it runs its race but just gets beat by an improver. I thought that even if TS didn't stay and even though MG was the best of the rest after the iffy Advertise something would probably progress past him. I was wrong. I could be totally wrong here. The time of the Guineas may not be a true reflection of MG's ability. King Of Change might show that he really is a horse worthy of running second in a Guineas. However, until that is proven I have to take an opposing view with so many cracks in the form and MG undoubtedly going off short in future. |
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*put him on a reasonable figure
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figs, on a slightly different topic what do think of o'briens dominance of the classics and is it healthy for the game? and should we just be downgrading every other runner that isn't trained by him?
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TBH honest thought it was blindling obvious that donkey wasn't going to stay, then you have the old chestnut about speed, so I guess was still possibility, just sitting in my aftertimesr armchair
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LR, I would prefer it if the best horses were evenly spread between a few trainers, like It was in the 80s. That said I just like to see good horses whoever trains them. It's a bit disappointing when I see what I would call moderate renewals and he's still dominating them. I start to think Christ why can't the other trainers even get some of their runners to back up their best performances, but then you have to say O'Brien has a big advantage there because he's mob handed. Look at today's 1000. Two of his more fancied runners failed to run to their best. Other trainers would be pinning all their hopes on just the one horse running to form.
should we just be downgrading every other runner that isn't trained by him In my view, even though that yard are dominating the numbers I don't consider them to have had the very best horses in recent years. I'd say yes Minding was the best 1000 winner for years but the best other classic winners have been Frankel, Enable, Sea The Stars and Golden Horn. As far as punting goes the good thing is that amongst the better winners he's had a few that get overrated, go off short in future and achieve little. Virginia Waters, Homecoming Queen, Saxon Warrior and, dare I say it, Magna Grecia so there's always a silver lining |
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The thing with O'Brien as well is no matter which horse wins he always makes it sound like it was pretty much expected. Today's winner "Really grew into a 3yo, very, very tough", etc, etc. If Just Wonderful had won he'd have said she was always their preferred and waxed lyrical. Yesterday the winner was "Very pacy, strong traveller, stronger at 3". With the beaten TS it is now that he's a 6f horse who they were only hopeful of staying. Which to be fair he always only said he was hopeful, but you can be sure if he had stayed his previous quotes would've come into play again, such as he never gave them any reason to doubt he wouldn't stay, long stride, relaxed, clear winded, good mind....
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