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Horse Antepost
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These 360 comments are related to the topic:
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
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Replies: 360
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a desperate guineas
This the proven horses seem extremely ordinary And this. I concur  |
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the more I think about this al hilalee, the more confident I feel
just looking at the race, I think a lot of these are potential non-stayers. not just ten sovereigns- a few from the craven etc also look dubious for stamina feel with the guineas it's generally won by a stouter stayer- not just an out and out miler. often won by a horse that ultimately gets tried at ten furlongs or more Churchill being a prime example of this, starts off as a miler and eventually aiden turns him into a 10 furlong horse also you can rule out a lot of the exposed horses as simply not being good enough |
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sorry should have added al hilalee a guaranteed stayer- by dubawi out of an authorized mare
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my rough approximation of the leading contenders:
advertise- just don't fancy him at all madhmoon- feel he'll fail for stamina... some of his runs last year looked like a bit of a short runner for me, but big chance if gets the trip. the sexy horse for many skardu- half fancy this horse. v impressive first time up showing a brilliant turn of speed, and then won the craven. form being knocked but an inexperienced horse can do no more than win. a lot depends on what haggis has left to work on. royal marine- solid and a battler. but seems a bit of a plodder. feel he may need further in time. ten sovereigns/magna grecia- just don't fancy the O'Brien horses. just a feeling I have that he won't win this year- happy to be proved wrong but rarely bet against my instincts great scot- a lot of those in the know are tipping him up but just don't fancy him set piece- seemed to run out of steam at the end of the craven. hard to imagine him confirming the form with royal marine who was given a very tender ride. kick on- surely fails on the class angle. this is a bad guineas but not that bad. al hilalee- my idea of the winner. likely to make up into a top class three year old and in a race where they probably will only be a few lengths between some well-matched three year olds (even if figgis says different) his extra stamina might prove decisive. feel he may need further as well but as a guess I'm going to say he has more brilliance than royal marine. the rest don't look good enough. think might double dutch skardu- al hilalee, well in truth already backed both but might go in again |
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I want to back TS but putting Ryan up taking the value out and think they now put Donnacha up on the better fancied one so that worries me that the ladz think may not stay despite some solace on the dams side :)
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Been persisting down again this morning in Newmarket.
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some plodder that.
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Not bad for a slow old boat.
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false race. form will never hold up
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wd winners...a complete golden highway there but anyway the winner won well
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I got that one wrong, but a worthy win by his stablemate even though it was a strange race.
Well done winners. |
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not in a million years a worthy winner
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won a 3 horse race with a 250/1 shot in 2nd
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unclepuncle
02 May 19 12:22 Will we get another huge bias towards the stand rail as in most New'Mkt meetings over recent years. Naturally my only bet Madhmoon is drawn in stall 1 furthest out. Might as well rip the virtual ticket up all ready. All too obvious unfortunately.  |
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The clock rarely lies Harry.
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ffs uncle, unlucky. a joke of a race
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not in a million years a worthy winner
Charlton in the context of sport yes, but i accept it was a messy race and those on the nearside rail had an advantage. |
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not the best horse in the race and hence not a worthy/deserving winner. The effect of the draw is 5 lengths minimum. would have been 6th to 10th.
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hopefully you had the clock running for the 2 groups felt
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Well done winners. An unsatisfactory race but no excuse for TS. Yes I would've liked more cover and to be on the stand side but he was never staying anyway. I did say that if TS didn't stay then nothing would surprise me as the rest were all so far behind him, but in view of how well MG did it I was prepared to say I'd got him wrong or he's improved again. The 66/1 casts doubt on the form but I'm always willing to accept one like that ran above itself rather than bring down the whole race to suit. However, it's still quite early in the card but a quick time comparison definitely brings down the level of the form. It will probably seem like sour grapes but I think this Guineas could be right down there with the likes of the Island Sands race.
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Figgis, the problem of any analysis using this race is that there were only 3 runners. but given the proximity of 3/4/5 to one another, this would be a very poor renewal.
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Charlton, glad I'm at least not on my own in that view. We'll get another day to oppose this form. If he does it again however we'll just have to hold our hands up
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felt quite funny
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he won't
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winner was going right away at the end.
Think he'd of won drawn over the otherside myself,traveeled well throughout the race. |
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Particularly well done to Foyleswar though who called it at an early stage. Whatever the merit of the form he got the winner and the value and that's what counts.
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the winners won 3/4 now,2 GP1s.Only horse
to beat him is Persian King who won easily on his seasonal debut.Would'nt be too quick to knock him,even with todays draw. |
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thanks figgis gracious words .its nice when it pans out ,good debate and input on the thread which is what its all about .
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Magna Grecia is 4/7 to repeat her English 2000G triumph in the Irish version on 25th May. The question is will he run again in the Epsom Derby on 1st June just a week later? He was as low as 5 but just matched at 26 (here).
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Guineas only .8 faster than the 3yo handicap supports earlier thoughts.
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Think he'd of won drawn over the otherside
myself,traveeled well throughout the race Watching it again I'd agree with that. I had MG a few pounds ahead of Skardu and Madhmoon and even with their positional disadvantage I didn't see enough there to say they would've beaten him. I'm sure they would've finished closer than they did though and still feel at this stage that it's very poor form indeed for a Guineas. So wouldn't disagree that the best horse over the trip on the day won, I'll just be surprised if that level of form stands up in future Gp1s. |
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Maybe Skurdu is the one to take out of this.
Put alot more daylight between himself and Momkin from the Craven run. |
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What I'll take out of this is if a horse has only ran as far as 6f then not to start guessing if it'll stay a mile judged on its appearance and style of running, as I'm obviously rubbish at it
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9/4 jolly,not the only one.
GL |
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Haggas reckoned Skardu has had a hard race, and the plan would be to go straight to Ascot; Madhmoon is in the Derby thus unlikely for a renewal with Magna Grecia either; Ten Sovereigns will be dropped in trip, and back to sprinting next.
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3 Godolphin owned runners were shocking.
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Best thing about this forum is when knowledgeable punters put their necks on the line. The worst thing is certain prolific posters' platitudes. Anyway, I've watched the race and done my figures and I look forward to seeing how bravely MG is layed in Ireland. Charlton, I presume you'll be going 2-1 on the day? Best time for several years. I have him 1lb below Dawn Approach. Cracking performance. The mid-track runners were clearly nothing special. I look forward to Ten Sovs beating Calyx in the commonwealth.
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Best time for several years
Howellsy, how have you arrived at that given the times of the 5f, 6f and other 8f race on the card? I look forward to Ten Sovs beating Calyx in the commonwealth You're more confident than me, I have them dead level. Where I would possibly give the edge to Calyx is his comeback left little doubt that he was capable of running as well as he did last year. I have it just a few pounds short of his best and would expect him to reach that level when pushed more next time. There's no doubt TS didn't stay today but we still don't know for sure if he's as good as he was. |
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Pogo should be perfectly capable of a decent time in a handicap - was highly tried last year and had a class edge. Of course he wouldn't have run that quick had he been in the Guineas under that sort of pressure from such a long way out. The other two races look fine to me - Moyassar must be pretty good to win that off top weight. We have different methodologies, Figgis, that's for sure.
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