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These 360 comments are related to the topic:
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
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Replies: 360
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ten sovereigns a good name for a guineas winner as well
 what puts him so far clear on your figures figs? |
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LR, I have him on a figure that would've won or at least dead heated with all bar 2 of the last 10 Guineas. Admittedly his is a figure over a shorter trip. Along with that, the rest of this field look very slow, apart from Advertise. Personally I see Advertise as more of a sprinter and I'm not even confident about him training on, although recent reports are apparently upbeat on that score. It wouldn't surprise me to see Advertise win but I'm happy not to back him. There is possibly at least one horse in the field who will outrun his previous form but on the evidence so far even TS's first two runs last year were faster than anything the others have done, barring Advertise.
He's no Frankel (not even close) by any means but he's fast enough to win a decent standard of Guineas and this looks like it could be a poor renewal. The only questions are his well being, if he's trained on and the trip. The ability isn't in question and neither do I fear his opponents. |
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Lovely performance from Calyx there, he has really filled out this year. I love this horse, I think he is top class. There is every chance he could stay a mile in my view as he switches off so well and then shows a great turn of foot.
I hope they give him the chance to fulfil his potential and prove how good he is. I would go Commonwealth Cup, July Cup and then give him a chance over a mile in the Sussex Stakes. |
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last winner to win the Middle Park and
Guineas was Rodrigo De Triano 1992. Not the best of trials. |
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I think Royal marine could win this weak guineas, as already proven at the top level in Longchamp.
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Penzance,
Correct,but the Middle Park tends to attract the sprinting type these days and how many actually went for the 2000 guineas since 1992. Go further back in time and several have done the double including the great Brigadier Gerard and he turned an OK miler  |
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# turned out to be
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Not the best of trials
Agreed. It's a race that's usually a target for horses that are always gonna be sprinters. The question is did O'Brien keep him at 6f purely because it seemed an automatic path because of his sire, or did he always have misgivings about him over further? My guess it just seemed an automatic choice and he was obviously beginning to show he was very fast. We'll see on Saturday. |
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I think Royal marine could win this weak guineas, as already proven at the top level in Longchamp.
LR, for me that Gp1 reads more like Gp3 level, even though Broome has won easily since. I don't want to start dismissing everything, because if TS fails to stay then something else will capitalise and it could well be RM. He hasn't shown anything like Guineas speed though and it was no surprise to see him beaten in the Craven. |
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fair enough figs, you are probably right. maybe royal marine is just a plodder, but this guineas feels so low key I don't think it will take much winning. at least this horse has shown a cruising speed and some strength in a battle, which is more than most.
not concerned about madhmoons lightning turn of speed, or al hilalees dark horse potential?! |
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I've got Madhmoon on the exact same mark as Royal Marine, so pretty slow really. The difference is I wasn't entirely sure he's not capable of bettering the bare form of what he showed last year, although his trial seems to suggest not as I have him running exactly to his previous best. Also, in general Prendergast's horses are not ones I usually fear at this level. So not only would it have to be one of the best he's had but one that's also hidden how good it is so far. It's possible but I don't see it as something to worry about.
Al Hilalee is a bit harder to put a handle on. His debut was decent enough and the French race was muddling so he might be better than that. Again though, when a horse has already shown he's good enough to win a decent renewal, as I believe TS has, I'm not too concerned about unknown quantities. It's more about him still being in top form and staying. |
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Figgis
just a quick question mate, sorry to be nosey, but do you do much day to day punting? or are you one of these gamblers who waits for the right situation, like you obviously think is the case with this guineas? |
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I don't bet on jump racing anymore and haven't for a few years. Partly I just started to lose the taste for jump racing and partly it was to keep the workload down when doing my own ratings. The benefit is I look much more forward to the flat now after having a winter break from racing. I do bet on the flat regularly but not always every day and bigger bets are usually reserved for bigger races. I bet on the odd other sport like tennis. You?
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Magna Grecia looks the one to beat
in this now,for me.The Nmkt form with Persian King has been franked, who won easily lto.The Doncaster 1m win has also been franked,Kick On won the Fielden,King Ottokar and Dashing Willoughby were 1st & 2nd @Newbury,Great Scot was 2nd in the Greenham and before this race Phoenix Of Spain ran a good 2nd to To Darn Hot.Also the Nmt run is 2nd on time with one publication behind only To Darn Hot and Persian King(114,114 & 113*). |
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I'm not much of a scientific punter figs, too lazy to do speed ratings I'm afraid. I'm more of an intuitive punter, or as others might call it, a guesser
 maybe I need to do more value betting though. today I did seven bets and lost them all, some at quite short prices. had vision d'honneur and queen power and al boum photo and allaho. probably they all traded at short prices in running and they all got beat. but very hard to win backing at reasonably short prices unless you have some kind of system or you are methodical with your bets. |
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I'm more of an intuitive punter
Well I certainly wouldn't knock that. Even the compiling of figures requires much intuition. |
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have backed skardu nrnb. my first bet on the race
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No rain in ages
Plenty of it about coming How much who knows Can’t see much movement in market Till Saturday |
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I think the race is wide open . For e/w purposes I like Urban Icon and Emeraaty Ana .
The Greenham form was done no harm by the run of No Nonsense yesterday and Urban Icon has come on for the race . Emeraaty Ana might not have run to his best in the Middle Park and it should be remembered that he will not be three years old until next week . |
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Will we get another huge bias towards the stand rail as in most New'Mkt meetings over recent years.
Naturally my only bet Madhmoon is drawn in stall 1 furthest out. Might as well rip the virtual ticket up all ready.  |
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With Too darn Hot and Calyx out I can't get excited about the race. I might come for one at the last minute when I see the market.
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Moore rides TS as expected.
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why expected,never rode it before now?
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Because like a said, they know MG isn't in the same ballpark.
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*Like I said
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we'll see Saturday.
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just got a gut feeling O'Brien won't win it this year.
mind you, I think (or hope) that every year  |
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Ryan on 10 sovs(hoping he is right)
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Ryan on 10 sovs(hoping he is right)
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Moore confounded the majority here opting to ride Ten Sovereigns. He sure is taking a chance on the highest rated juvenile over his possible stamina limitation.
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Horse with over a stone in hand with unknown stamina vs plodder guaranteed to stay. It's a no brainer.
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if that had a stone in hand it'd be odds on.
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if that had a stone in hand it'd be odds on.
Not when a lot of punters seem to think MG is as good or even better and TS won't stay. |
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can't see where this stone in hand comes
from,myself. |
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I was referring to him having a stone in hand of his stablemate. Personally I doubt that Coolmore rate both horses similarly in private, no matter what they may say in public.
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But as to the rest of the field, I'd say that so far Ten Sovereigns has run a stone better than anything else barring Advertise. It's a long time since I've seen such a poor lot in a Guineas.
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Figgis, I've rarely heard you as confident as this, which surprises me in view of the uncertainty of the colt's stamina. It's going to be a very strong gallop with 21 in there and O'Brien has made no attempt to 'control the pace' here, with no pacemakers. I think most people accept TS is better over 6f than MG is over the 8 (on 2yo form) but you have the gap way too big in my view. Regarding the jockeys, I recall reading earlier this season that O'Brien decided what Moore rode. I was quite surprised that more wasn't made of this in the media as it's been a talking point for ages, but I dare say there were some mickey mouse jumps races on at that time. I think he'd be quite happy for his son to be on the better one and to say afterwards that he wasn't sure. What's Moore going to do? Tell them to stuff their retainer? I guess TS represents massive value for you even with the uncertainty over stamina, as you have him so far clear. I just don't think this is the race on which to live or die by your figures. But I'd say you'd got more right than me over the years.
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Howellsy, I'm only confident in his ability, or at least what he was capable of last year. I can't say I'm massively confident about his stamina, I would've much preferred to get a measure of him over 7f last year. From what I've seen of him I do think he'll stay, but that is purely subjective.
The way I look at it is on ability alone he is an odds on chance. I have him on a mark that would've seen him win most recent runnings of the race. Not only that, but I think in the context of this being a Guineas most of the others are poor. Obviously the stamina doubt stops him being an odds on chance. If the mile does stretch him then it's possible he could bomb out completely in the final furlong. However it's also possible that he might just run a few pounds below his best and, being so far ahead of most of these, still manage to win. Even with the stamina doubt I still make him a much shorter price than his odds, although I'm fully aware he could finish nearer last than first if he turns out to be an out and out sprinter. you have the gap way too big in my view I have last year's VFT no better than about average for the race, behind Saxon Warrior's and Kingston Hill's efforts. The usual level of form for this race is nowhere near good enough for a Guineas and I don't see why last year's will be any different. |
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I don't see why last year's will be any different
I say that on the proviso that TS stays the trip. If he doesn't stay then, unless something improves greatly, then I see it as a weak race and nothing would surprise me. |
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Figgis, I assume you are hoping that ten sovereigns blows the field apart mid race, because you can't be confident of him getting the better of say a three-way head bobber in the final furlong?
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