LR, if it's a 3 way head bobber then TS can't have run right up to his best form (it's not impossible if two others improve a lot but it would be extremely unlikely) so anything could happen. In these races there is often one that surprises you by running way better than before, it could happen here, but if not and everything performs as it has done before and TS stays I expect him to put up a Zafonic type win.

That was a very impressive win visually but a few things combined to produce that. Yes he was a very good miler on his day, the race was run at a strong pace, most of the opposition were crap and Eddery's waiting tactics ensured he was produced late when the others were spent. Plus Eddery always could make a win look great on this type of runner, confidently sitting there motionless while coasting into contention before unleashing the horse's turn of foot. Ah those were the days . I do put him in the same ballpark (although he still has to prove he's a miler) because, whatever you read elsewhere, in general racehorses have got slightly faster.

interestingly zafonic had a dosage index of 3.67 which I guess blows that theory apart...

few of no nay never's progeny have run over a mile or further, some have run and won at that distance, I do agree that the horse will probably stay. whether it will have a stone in hand though, I guess we'll have to find out...

whether it will have a stone in hand though, I guess we'll have to find out..

Well if Advertise can run close to his Coventry form then TS certainly won't have a stone in hand. Although I'm not convinced Advertise will repeat that. The stone in hand was in comparison to his stablemate, MG. That said, I don't see any of the others who have run within a stone of him. Surely one or two will improve on the day and manage to close that big gap somewhat but I'd still expect him to win comfortably if staying. Bearing in mind a stone on my scale would be just over 4 lengths over 1m, whereas it would be more on the BHA scale.

The market is still very interesting with TS a bit weak on here since the knee jerk reaction to Moore being jocked up with Magna Grecia holding up well. Coolmore like a punt, even on the shorties, so if they consider TS to be way ahead he should be going off 2/1 or less imo - if he stays around 7/2 then that indicates he won't be winning imo.

TS definitely didn't look to be crying out for further in the Middle Park, and even over the 6f he didn't win as easily as looked likely 2f out. Of course Jash might be a star in his own right but hasn't run since so we don't really know the value of the form, but given the hype I was expecting him to win like Calyx did at Ascot the other day.

Magna Grecia has done nothing wrong without looking a star - he should be hard to keep out of the frame though.

Madhmoon is holding up well in the market and I get the feeling they really fancied him, but that draw in one plus the forecast rain might scupper him. Hope not though.

Can't have Advertise staying and the rest are much of a muchness. Set Piece @ 30 would be my pick of the outsiders.

I wouldn't worry too much about the draw for Madhmoon Unc... the pace looks like it's drawn middle to low (sprinters next to him) and there are a few outsiders drawn high. They should come down the middle... hopefully!

^^
Opinions, opinions, opinions! It's prudent to take it with a big pinch of salt. For instance, most professional presenters and pundits were dissing the chances of Tiger Roll winning the Grand National on both occasions eg 1st time - his jumping; 2nd - carrying more weight.

In the old days where horse racing info were mainly confined to the privileged and not easily available and/or shared like now (thanks to the internet and social media) punters were almost wholly reliant on race reports and news from the Sporting Life; the videos/replays of races these days are a godsend to punters as info gathered are aplenty and opinions diverse. And, the inception of Exchanges ensure these info are reflected and/or challenged in the betting market, rightly or wrongly.

If 8f does not pose a great impediment to Ten Sovereigns (TS) he'd have a great chance. However, I'd rather have my money on Magna Grecia/Madhmoon/Advertise (win/ew) on present odds despite having TS at 25/1 for a small stake post his winning a race in Ireland and dissing by most professional presenters/pundits about his (possible) stamina limitation much further beyond 6f (his winning distance).

I hope the best horse wins, and no hard luck story for any; AOB's not running any candidates solely for race tactics to aid his principal runner/s.

if they consider TS to be way ahead he should be going off 2/1 or less imo - if he stays around 7/2 then that indicates he won't be winning imo.

Possibly. I'm expecting him to be backed in further but I wouldn't say if he doesn't go off 2/1 he won't be winning. O'Brien considered Gleneagles his best ever miler at the time, he went off 4/1f and won easily.

agree with uncle here. not sure which part of TS middle park run entitles him to a stone in hand

LR, take a look at TS' first two runs. Even his debut win (admittedly not Guineas class at that stage but it was only a debut after all) was better than anything MG, Skardu, Royal Marine, etc, have done in bigger named races. Doesn't mean he'll stay of course.

you seem to think he has,another publication
differs from you aswell

I could well be wrong and they might be proved right. I posted on here at the time that Harbinger was a cracking bet when he won the KG and I would've been surprised if he was beaten yet the market preferred his stablemate. On the other hand I thought Battaash was more like a 1/3 shot instead of 4/5 last year and he got stuffed, along with many other times I've been wrong.

The difference here is I don't know if TS will stay. Unless somebody out there has come up with a foolproof method for predicting stamina limitations then none of us know for sure. I also don't know if he's trained on. I always thought Air Force Blue was overrated at the time but even so it's obvious he didn't train on, even though connections obviously didn't see a problem until he was well beaten. All that considered TS should still be much shorter, imo.

LR, I think most people would accept after the event that last year's Guineas was a below par running. On what he's done so far would you have MG finish in that race?

ah lewisham you saw it too ! was begining to think it was just me and was i imagining things.  on the replays of his debut mg impressed me  with that turn of foot  to me it looked electric at the time and inspired me to put him up on the other thread . no one else seemed to notice it and i thought maybe i wasnt reading it right ,it looked to me like he went from 4th or 5th to lead in about 20-30 strides .is that how you saw it ,may be he went past trees  but i was impressed by what i saw . i will have another look .

foyles yes I was very impressed at the time, although I regard the guineas as a very open race. unlike some on here

I might follow you in figs mate. your enthusiasm is infectious.

not worried about the rain?

Forecast breeze from the left of 18 knots (20.7 mph) will probably be a hindrance to those drawn high.

from a handicapping point of view for me i have ten sovereigns a mile in front, his second win at the curragh was even better than his his newmarket run imo...its a desperately disappointing affair for me with the 3 good horses from last year not running and i've got it very tight handicapping wise, so have sat on the fence really as the ante post market has been loopy on here tbh

anyway the only 2 that interested me class wise were advertise and ten sovereigns and i have ten sovereigns clear best in fact i have him as the only legitimate group 1 horse in the race...i have to say i'm in camp that thinks he is very good but still think quorto was a monster and we've been denied, in all fairness when a top class juvenile doesn't turn out in the dewhurst you have be worried something is wrong and it clearly was with him

am desperately worried about stamina for ten sovereigns but really he is racing against group 3/2 at best 3 year olds here and he has a great chance, however it will only be a saver for me

advertise has wrangled me for weeks as he actually was big on here a few weeks ago but he also concerned me stamina wise, he has a cracking attitude, so has his chance but i cannot get excited about the price so have passed him over and not lightly but i'm a tad with figgis in regards him training on...who knows but i just cannot take the odds on him so so many doubts...the trainer continues to be in desperate form

i have to say i really liked persian king if he'd ran, not because i believed he was a superstar more that i thought he'd make a decent 3 year old and he had a way about him that i just liked and imo he won cosy against magna grecia for me and the rider was at pains to not take him deep in the red in that race but it was only group 3/2 form, anyway i'll be interested to see him this season as a decent 3 year old milers look thin on the ground...

i don't buy this magna grecia here at 5/1 in fact i think it is a horrible price, however with a lot of doubts he has to have his chance and i have to respect him i just don't want to bow to it and if ten sovereigns bombs which is very possible from a handicapping point of view i suppose yes he has a decent chance

a few horses are interesting obviously al hillali who i thought could be anything, had a little check for the derby thinking i'd be interested at 33 and find him at the deplorable price of 14/1...thanks but no thanks, keep the nonsense

anyway it's wrangled me for days in fact i feel ill backing the horse that i've backed from a barn i don't trust betting wise and on a class front he basically i think is a group 2/3 horse who would need to go to germany to win a guineas but i'm afraid i just feel he hasn't got as much to find if the 2 horses bomb

i have him down as a massive improver in his grade and do see more progress, also in my decision making is the tad of rain that is arriving, anyway i've backed great scot and yes he can't win can he?? but i just think he is a classy individual here, in with these horses and i just can't pass him over

please don't argue the magna grecia thing on his doncaster running, he basically pulled like a pig with a wide trip in that doncaster race in fact he's pulled like a pig in most of his races, which is clearly a problem and he will have to drop the bit here if he is going to give his running but is at least progressive.

i got the impression at newbury that they have clearly worked on his keeness and he looked in desperate need of the run in the greenham which i thought was an ok race for the grade and he rode the horse like it was a trail, he hit the line strong and basically he has just wanted a well run race in order to drop the bit, now i will argue he isn't good enough but he improved a huge amount last year and i think he is even better this year, he will need to step forward and ten sovereigns to flop in order to win but the way i've handicapped them id dismissing ten sovereigns and advertise because of reasons i've said, then this becomes a tight knit handicap and i like a tight knit handicap, i've got him 4/5th best...anyway i've wagered him and am hoping he can progress but i certainly don't rate him a mug horse in this company but he may just not be good enough...if he can settle off of a good gallop i'm hoping he can run well, however class will in all probability be his undoing

a desperate guineas

Forecast looks ok, if it can be trusted.

people are talking as though Magna Grecia can't
improve on what he's achieved.
Horse has had only 3 runs,winning a GP1 within
a month of his debut.

The big day tomorrow, so here is my take on Ten Sovereigns in the 2000 Guineas.

I've been a massive fan even since his debut at the Curragh in late August. I didn't back him that day (I actually laid the 4/1 fav for a few drinks) but watched LV with interest as he had been mentioned positively by AOB earlier in the season, in fact he was considered a Royal Ascot possible. What i saw was very impressive to say the least and i knew instantly he was well above average even at that stage.

I didn't have long to wait for his next run (7 days later) when he was thrust into Group 3 company over the same CD. I posted a summary on my last lay thread why i thought he was a good thing that day and backed him to win a nice few bob at odds around 4/9 and 2/5 (sorry to aftertime but it's all on the thread pre-race). I never had a moments worry in the race, as soon as Donnacha pressed the button the race was over.

A few weeks later i backed him again, ante-post to win the Middle park and decided to go over to UK for the race. I met a couple of forum posters there including Ed Thompson (flash bookie on here) and he kindly gave me a good price to another decent bet. He wasn't so impressive (Ten Sovereigns, not Ed) in winning as he had been, but in my eyes never looked like losing.

His form reads well, winning by 7L in a maiden on debut over 6f and his last two furlong sectionals and overall time 1min 11.41 sec (slow by 0.01 sec) were impressive, there wasn't anything that day that got close to the standard time, in fact the next race (a nursery over the same 6f) was won in a time that was 1.54 slow and the horse was carrying 4lb less than Ten Sovereigns. It was a group class performance without question, one which gave him a RPR of 103 (if i remember correctly Timeform gave him 105). 

It was a case of deja vu in his next race over the same CD, this time in the 6f Round Tower Stakes (Group 3) winning by 3.75L and yet again his sectionals and overall time were good, even on the softer ground, 1 min 12.02 sec (slow by 0.62 sec). This was just 7 days after his previous race and he was given a RPR of 113.

On both occasions he stayed on very strongly.

He was understandably given a break and aimed for the Middle Park. It looked a two horse race on paper and it proved to be just that in the end, but it's worth pointing out that winners of the Molecomb, Gimcrack, Anglesey and Cornwallis stakes (all Group races) finished well behind the front two.

The runner up Jash is a good horse rated 119 (won his previous race by 9L) but Ten Sovereigns was always holding him and the pair drew right away from the field.

Ten Sovereigns had won by 7L and 3.75L previously and this was the first time he had to really 'race', it was a new experience for him and he was green when challenged. Also the first time he had run on good/firm. Yet again the time was good and comparing standards, almost on a par with the year older Wissahickon who won the Cambridgeshire 40 minutes later (abeit the latter carried 5 lb more).

The breeding is obviously a quandry, we all know that, and being sired by No Nay Never, sprinting immediately jumps off the page, but there is a silver lining. The dam Seeking Solace never raced under a mile, won over 10f and was runner up over 11f. The dam-sire Exceed And Excel also provides a little comfort, even though he was a sprinter himself, but has sired decent milers Excelebration, James Garfield and Heavy Metal to name a few.

Of course he could turn out to be a sprinter, no more, albeit a good one and even Donnacha stated after the Newmarket race "He’s fast and a natural sprinter". His class may be enough to win even if he doesn't stay 8f well, only time will tell.

The good/firm ground will be in his favour. 

He's the best horse in the race (BHA 120/RPR 134) and has the best form by far. He's won on the course. His main challenger (in my opinion) is staying in France. He travels well, has a high crusing speed and a turn of foot (watch his first two races).

I would have backed him to beat Too Darned Hot and Calyx.

Sorry Figgis, i don't think he has a stone in hand as you suggest

As stated before several times on several threads, i think he's good, and could be very good.

Good luck.

Sorry Figgis, i don't think he has a stone in hand as you suggest

Jesus, this stone in hand thing again . I said he had a stone in hand of his stablemate on last season's form, actually I said he had 16lbs in hand , about 5 lengths over this distance on the likely ground.

He does NOT have a stone in hand of Advertise. If the Advertise of the Coventry Stakes turns up he'd only have about a length in hand. It's just that I'm not sure if Advertise ran above himself that day, or whether he'll train on plus I think he's more of a sprinter.

I haven't got the rest running with a stone of TS. Most of the opposition are slow, slower than I usually see in an average Guineas. However there is bound to be one or two capable of showing some improvement on the day. Nevertheless, if TS stays then I'd be very surprised if anything apart from Advertise could get even close to him.