Horse Antepost
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20 May 18
17:58
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07 Sep 15
With the withdrawals of Happily and September two fillies with the best credentials this year's renewal is inferior to last year's Enable and Rhododendron encounter. The present fav is Lah Ti Dar (9/4) cosy winner of a Listed race. Next best is Wild Illusion (7/1) winner of the Boussac; Sea of Class a ready winner at Newbury yesterday at 8/1 having been heavily supported since. Magic Wand and Forever Together winner and runner-up of the Listed Cheshire Oaks at Chester at 12/1; Magical could run if scratched in the Irish 1000G next sunday.
Of the above Wild Illusion has the best form undoubtedly but not run beyond 1m.
Of the above Wild Illusion has the best form undoubtedly but not run beyond 1m.
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As my original selection September is not running my allegiance switches to Magic Wand and Wild Illusion - former already proven at the distance (12f) and latter with the best juvenile form; Lah Ti Dar and Sea Of Class are too short for me, and need to improve to win, I think.
I think ground could be no worse than good given long range forecast. |
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As my original selection September is not running my allegiance switches to Magic Wand and Wild Illusion - former already proven at the distance (12f) and latter with the best juvenile form; Lah Ti Dar and Sea Of Class are too short for me, and need to improve to win, I think.
are you a robot?  |
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Point of order but Happily has not been withdrawn. I gather O'Brien mumbled something about her running in the Irish 1000 but he hasn't scratched her, she's still entered in the race and, imo, Betfair should not have removed her from the market.
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The Headmaster, well spotted. Betfair has given Happily a symbol (1) indicating a non-runner on the Exchange.
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They should not have done that.
It's tight this year, as Aidan himself has spoken about, but he's gone Irish 1000 to Oaks before and will do it again no doubt. If Betfair's latest policy is to remove horses from markets based not on scratchings but trainer talk, we're going to have some fun I can assure them  |
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For what it's worth I think the fav is way too short and looked uncomfortable to me at Newmarket. She needs to wise up and wise up quickly to win an Oaks.
I respect all the O'Brien fillies, particularly the two from Chester. I wouldn't give up on Flattering, amongst others, either. Sea Of Class won with any amount in hand on Saturday and, of the two Haggas horses, is much the most likely to bring home on Oaks. The dark one is Hazel Bay, who the trainer holds in the highest regard. If he can get her right she will be the value on the day, although we're left waiting for her to be declared sadly. Wherever she goes in the next few weeks, be warned this is a serious racehorse. The Godolphin filly I have no strong opinion on. |
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This year the Irish 1000G is on 27th May and Epsom Oaks 1st June which is barely a week between them unlike last year about two weeks thus highly unlikely, I think, Happily will be asked to do two races in this period; I think Happily will be left in here until confirmation on 26th May in case something untoward happens to her between now and 22nd May (1000G confirmation).
I wish Flattering (I'm stacked up) would run here but there must be a major doubt given her defeat on good/firm ground and over 12f at Lingfield - she won over 10f and in soft/heavy; Sea Of Class beat Athena one of AOB' charges easily but that horse had been soundly beaten by Flattering and Jenga too in the soft/heavy. I think the fav Lah Ti Dar is heading the market because of the reputation of her trainer rather than what she'd achieved so far - she's way too short. I do not see why Magic Wand cannot confirm her superiority over Forever Together. And if Wild Illusion gets the trip she'll be a force to reckon. Hazel Bay showed promise in her 1st run to be 2nd to Mary Tudor a Godolphin inmate who had decent form; she's 60 here which does not auger well for the participation here. Magic Wand and Wild Illusion for me; a reverse forecast given their names eg 'magic' and 'illusion', assuming Happily does not gatecrash late. |
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Not even a mention for Sun Maiden. I thought the 12l demolition over 10f was most impressive and looks a real Stoute improver. For me that looks like Lah Ti Dar's biggest danger.
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Apart from proving she stays what makes you fancy a horse beaten in two maidens by over 20 lengths in total and then winning the weakest Chester Oaks in living memory ?
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I thought Sea Of Class was impressive yesterday - to my eye, she beat Arcadian Heights just as comfortably as Lah Ti Dar did a month previously at the same track.
William Haggas used a similar route to the Oaks with Dancing Rain in 2011 (albeit there was about a week more between the two races then). I think, though, the problem might be the ground - they usually water pretty extensively in advance of The Oaks and I think that might be more in Lah Ti Dar's favour - the Sea The Stars progeny go an anything but I think generally they're favoured by quicker ground (20% strike rate on GF vs 12% on GS). Her pedigree is replete with stamina too - she could even be a Leger horse further down the line. |
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^ Arcadian Cat ffs (Arcadian Heights going back a few years)
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It's an Oaks thread and everyone is dismissing Lah Ti Dar - Bred to win the race and obviously held in the highest regard by the trainer and jockey. Ran twice and although very green won both races pulling away in the closing stages when the penny dropped. The sectionals of the Newbury race were also very impressive (much more impressive than Sea of Class). The form is nothing special but is expected to improve dramatically for the step up to 12 furlongs. Price has gone long ago and very skinny at 5/2 but is by the far the most likely winner if she acts around Epsom tomorrow morning and improves as expected from her first two runs.
Wild Illusion is a threat and most likely to give her most to do. Her Group 1 form is questionable and looked one placed in the Guineas. If the step up 1/2 mile brings improvement then she may be a player. Sea of class looked impressive on Saturday but I wonder if the performance was as good as it looked. The race became a sprint over the last 3 furlongs and I wonder if she would be able to run down Lah Ti Dah in the same manner once she got going. Doubt it.. The French Oaks would be more suitable target imho and step up from there. Of the others Magic Wand and Forever Together aren't good enough and Sun Maiden could run well into a place if improving from Salisbury. |
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i'm not dismissing. I agree she should be favourite.
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Hibore,
What an earth makes you think you know how good an Aidan O'Brien filly is after 3 runs? That flies in the face of all racecourse evidence, which has been collated solidly over the last twenty years. If you've cracked the code do tell. |
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Bit of a disappointing betting event this year for me as I don't see anything to really get stuck into. The one with the best shown for this year is Wild Illusion but it will need to be a substandard renewal if she can win. Lah Ti Dar looks the one most likely to step up. I have her latest win about 10lbs short of what should be required to win a decent Oaks but the way that race was run it's possible she could be much better when getting an even pace. The trouble is she's now priced up like substantial improvement is guaranteed but I wouldn't say it's an absolute given. Enable was much bigger last year having already shown better form and looking very professional around Chester, whereas Lah Ti Dar, even though she looked to have learned a bit more last time, still appeared a little green.
The one I think has the best overall proven form is O'Brien's Magical, whose best 2yo form I rate slightly above September, who many punters fancied for this race. The trouble is her form fell away markedly after the Moyglare and her opening run this year wasn't very encouraging. Wouldn't be a big surprise though to see O'Brien get her back on song and if there is no real star in the race she could go close as I'm not convinced she needs it soft. So may have a small bet on her nearer the race but a no bet race for me at the moment. |
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Hibore,
As you point out it's an Oaks thread - Lah Ti Dar even has her very own separate Oaks thread on here so perhaps it's not surprising that there are more posts on this one about the other contenders. Reading through the thread nobody has dismissed Lah Ti Dar. One or two posters - including you - have expressed the opinion that her price is now on the skinny side. According to the France Galop website Sea Of Class is not entered in the French Oaks - I've no idea whether she'll run at Epsom but it must be of some significance that Haggas left her in the Oaks a day or so before she ran at Newbury knowing there would only be 13 days between the two races. Are you able to share the source of the sectionals which allowed you to compare the two Newbury races,please? I'd be interested in looking at them even though they were on different race days under different conditions (weather,going etc). |
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I should've added that the decision around Sea Of Class participation presumably revolves around whether they wait for the Ribblesdale instead.
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i'd dismiss any haggas horse simply based on the trainer. when was the last time he won a classic, 1990s?
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2011, I'll get me coat
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I'm on Wild Illusion ante-post but seriously perturbed to see impossible has backed her
 She has Group 1 form as a 2yo & 3yo and bred to stay longer than the mother in-law. She's got some good time figures in the locker too. Of all Godolphins classic contenders in the UK this season, she represents the best chance. Even before the Guineas was run. |
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Having backed Lah Ti Dar @ 16/1 AP I have not been unduly concerned with her rivals until Sun Maiden absolutely hosed up, despite still looking green. Significantly she was backed off the boards by all and sundry for the decent looking maiden on paper (lots of top trainers had a runner) after the proverbial 'pigeons on gallops'; she really could be something special. Only two runs and Stoute representative, she is most definitely a live contender.
I do think Sea of Class looked very good too; so for me the picture has taken on a lot more depth in the last few days. |
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Hibore,
What an earth makes you think you know how good an Aidan O'Brien filly is after 3 runs? That flies in the face of all racecourse evidence, which has been collated solidly over the last twenty years. If you've cracked the code do tell. The form and odds are a good indication I've always found. Rease - I use my own sectionals (ground, trip etc) and adjust for pace of race and run style of each horse I'm concentrating on. If taken on for lead if front runner and so on. Lah Ti Dah came out clearly on top in my ratings but it was only one race and Sea of Class can't make the horses in front go any quicker. Also I believe Racing UK had a bloke from Timeform on after Lah Ti Dar's run at Newbury and mentioned they were very impressed...I only saw Tom Stanley mention it during betting lab :-) I didn't think Sea of Class was in the Ribblesdale but was in the mile at Ascot ? Whatever she runs in she looks a very smart horse with the manner she won. She looks a serious horse over |
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Interesting - thanks.
Yes you're right - she's in the Coronation Stakes but not the Ribblesdale, - I'm struggling to get my head around that given her breeding. Anyway, time for me to move on from her and take a look at some of the other contenders. Good luck. |
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My opinions do not mean I'm dissing the others. It's just I do not favour them as they do not represent value in this year's seemingly open renewal given their form and irrespective of who their trainers are. I was not impressed with Lah Ti Dar and Sea Of Class; I'd have been had they run in the Musidora, Lingfield or Chester, just my take on them.
I hope Magic Wand could improve further after a change of tactic, and Wild Illusion takes the step up in trip with aplomb. If so, both will have a serious chance of winning this open looking contest, I believe. But I'm still very much looking forward to September running whether it be in Ireland or Ascot. |
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Got a free bet from Sky,and have plumbed for Magical. Hope one of my 3 darts hits the bull's eye. Good luck all!
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Willoughby just waxing lyrical about LTD and that Sea of class should miss the Oaks and run at Ascot.
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Hibore,
The form and odds are a good indication I've always found. Minding at 10/11 in the last 10 years then? We'll ignore: Alluringly 3rd, 16/1, improved 15lb on lifetime RPRs at Epsom Qualify, 1st, 50/1, +11 Was, 1st, 20/1, +15 Wonder Of Wonders, 2nd, +8 Moonstone, 2nd, 25/1, +15 Peeping Fawn, 2nd, 20/1, +14 Think you might be missing a trick there but if you're laying that's fine by me. Carry on. |
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Being a Lah Ti Dar man, are you in anyway concerned about the sire's absolutely abysmal record in the Derby and Oaks? Considering the mares he's had to work with that must be a little off-putting, no?
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I backed Was, wonder and moonstone so don’t get your point ? 80% of the winners and placed horses in the Oaks show improvement like that so that proves very little. Unless all the other trainers are as good at improving fillies?
Enable +13 Taghrooda +13 and +27 from run before. AOB is the best trainer bar none with Gosden close second. So if that is your point I agree. What I don’t agree is that Magic Wand and Forever Together are any good. That’s my opinion and based on my data...if they both deadheat in 1st place I’ll put my hands up and say I was wrong. Not worried by LTD sire as I go by form rather than breeding once they are on the racetrack. Here’s a question for you. If you could own (not back at fancy odds) one horse would it be MW or LTD ? That removes the “value” element. |
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hibore, how did you know was was any good then? if you can be certain that magic wand isn't?
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Being a Lah Ti Dar man, are you in anyway concerned about the sire's absolutely abysmal record in the Derby and Oaks? Considering the mares he's had to work with that must be a little off-putting, no?
in fairness the vast majority of these would have been godolphin horses, and we all know their unique ability to **** up any classic, no matter how promising it seems to be for them. gosden is another kettle of fish altogether, he's already got the same blueprint for this in recent years with taghrooda, who was also unraced at two I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) in a weak looking oaks, can see this lah di tar going off even money, if it's already 9/4. |
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I backed 3 that year as the race on paper was a mediocre to say the least. The race Was won as a two year old stacked up quite well against the field. The Fugue should have won all things being equal though...
Ryan Moore looks set to ignore Magic Wand and ride outsider Magical. He's been reading my posts  Now Magical does have a better chance in my book, could be a live one in here. |
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It would be difficult for Moore to desert Magical given he rode her in France when 6/4 fav in the Boussac against Wild Illusion. But I would not say Magical is an outsider as she did beat Happily in Ireland and was 15/8 fav against Laurens and September in the Fillies Mile; she certainly has the class,...the unknown is her stamina. She'll undoubtedly be much shorter if Moore chooses her rather than Magic Wand here.
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The price of Magical was big because she was not certain to run here as she was also engaged in the Irish 1000G as cover for Happily.
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My (very obvious) point was that you said you go on form and prices and I listed a whole heap of O'Brien fillies that had neither but took a leap forward on Oaks day, as Magic Wand may well do. Where does "Ryan Moore looks set to ignore Magic Wand and ride outsider Magical" from too?! Magical isn't an outsider and Ryan doesn't look set to desert Magic Wand. O'Brien said he was very impressed with her. It's between the two clearly, so not much between them in the eyes of people that know. Anyway, keen to leave this here as the Gosden horse very obviously has a decent chance and I thought we were on an ante-post forum trying to play the market and have a touch, not work out our selections for the Thoroughbred Owner/Breeder Ten To Follow.
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Lump on the favourite
I was on September at 33s for the absolute lot. She got withdrawn as we know and by that point Lah Ti Dar was already looking a huge threat. So I managed to cash some of my bets out for double my money on September and have since got stuck into Lah Ti Dar. It looks about as intriguing an Oaks as I’ve seen. |
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I was on September at 33s for the absolute lot.
how much did you stand to win |
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Same great after-timing knocking about on here.
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Dubawi may not have won a classic yet but he's sired placed horses at Epsom and has produced enough genuine, top class racehorses for it not to be a concern. It's really just a matter of time before he sires a classic winner. He's got an outstanding chance with Wild Illusion. Lah Ti Dar won't see which way she went.
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