Epsom Oaks 2018 (1st June)

Ive had a look on the internet could'nt find any mention of anything, agree it doesnt look good but then theres nothing concrete

7.0 now
Nothing concrete ,but looks like 1 part cement 3 parts sand 3 parts aggregate being mixed as we speak. Shouldnt take long to set.

I don't like the look of this and have acted accordingly.  Wild Illusion and Magical quickly backed to cover.

Market suspended. I cashed out of a PP bet when it looked like she was possibly out

OUT

Concrete set accordingly.

365 were a bit behind and was able to cash out 20/1 and 14/1 bets after the suspended on exchange. Betfair Sportsbook took all my 10/1 bets though (which was substantial).

Luckily WI and Magical look nice bets now.

Will Sea of Class run now ?

Would have thought so. Owner wants to go Haggas slightly reticent .So that may be the lever to sway him.

Sorry backers of Lah Ti Dar scratched after a poor blood count this morning. Ironically, her sister So Mi Dar was scratched very close to the Oaks too.

Lah Ti Dar missed Breakfast with the Stars because the weather was too hot, now her blood's wrong...

...and someone in the know laid her with impunity - how ironic!!!!!

Quite surprised you dont rate WI that much Figgis. The cheekpieces since her defeat in France have made the world of difference. They've made her much more resolute and focused. Her 4th in the Guineas on fast ground, when she could probably do with it slightly easier, and on debut was a great effort given her breeding. She could easily improve 7lb for the step up in trip. I get she's trained by Godolphin but if she were trained by Aidan for example she'd be half the odds she is (at any stage of the ante-post market).

There is a thread on here by Eric Morris bemoaning the lack of value in ante-post markets. The lack of value comes in looking at the AOB,Gosden or Stoute horses but there is value elsewhere.

impossible123 25 May 18 14:59 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 6,398 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
...and someone in the know laid her with impunity - how ironic!!!!!

probably her vet

Sint, I definitely wouldn't dismiss her chances. On form shown this year hers is clearly the best. It's form good enough for a place in an average year and yes it's good enough to win in a poor year, I've seen worse. I reckon Magical's best form last year puts her slightly ahead of Wild Illusion but my pick still has to prove she hasn't completely gone backwards. I think it's because most of us are looking/hoping for a more classy winner. Something that will make a step up on the day and to me she doesn't appear likely to do that. Wouldn't be at all surprised though to see her win. I remember not fancying Entrepreneur in the Derby years ago but thinking something else would probably improve past my next highest rated, Benny The Dip, only to end up kicking myself afterwards. At the price WI is now though I'm happy to leave her.

Looks like 13 go to post with AOB fielding 8 with Magical, Magic Wand, Forever Together, Bye Bye Baby, Flattering, Athena, I Can Fly and Sizzling but no Happily; Haggas has Sea Of Class and Give And Take; Godolphin only 1 in Wild Illusion, similarly Simcock and Cox with Ejtyah and Perfect Clarity respectively.

Perfect Clarity is looking a bit dodgy now. No lays apart from 1000.

Without LTD this race is looking a minefield....

think we'll all be joining the sint train with wild illusion

Earlier it was Perfect Clarity who experienced a bit of price manipulation here but now her price has stabalised; it is the turn of Magical now (apparently) being "managed", and nothing sinister, I hope.

Magical taking a ride out to 10/1 again. Filling in a joint while cantering. Decision whether she runs in the morning.

I've removed all bets with NRNB and moved to Sea of Class as Wild Illusion nicely covered between 14/1 - 8/1.

Never had a rollercoaster Antepost like this before.

Without NRNB I mean.

Hibore 29 May 18 16:06 Joined: 23 Jun 07 | Topic/replies: 1,358 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
Magical taking a ride out to 10/1 again. Filling in a joint while cantering. Decision whether she runs in the morning.

I've removed all bets with NRNB and moved to Sea of Class as Wild Illusion nicely covered between 14/1 - 8/1.

Never had a rollercoaster Antepost like this before.

are you not just guessing now given the one you were originally bullish about, lah ti dar, is a non-runner.

the one thing sea of class has in her favour is that she's by seathestars. I have a theory his progeny are ideally suited to epsom. He's had harzand and taghrooda in recent years as winners for him.

This has been an awful race for me; So Mi Dar two years ago; Rhododendron last year. And this year, September, and possibly Magical too - her scan was promising. Either Wild illusion, Magic Wand or Flattering obliging for me to show a profit (more) if Saxon Warrior wins too.

Unfortunate timing but I hope Magical runs otherwise the Ribblesdale could be her next target, I think.

Absolutely..I admit I'm guessing now :-)

LTD was the only horse I fancied strongly for the Oaks. However, did agree with impossible that Wild Illusion @ 14/1 was too big a few weeks ago so backed her accordingly. When I could see LTD was likely to be withdrawn I've had some value bets on horses I knew would contract significantly in price (WI, Magical and Sea of Class). I obviously would like Wild Illusion to win but to be honest think it's so wide open that a shock is definitely on the cards.

I live near Epsom and the rain has been falling all afternoon to complicate matters further.

Wild Illusion coming in for heavy support in last hour or so. Anyone know why ?

Best form in the book and with the step up in trip to show further improvement makes her the most likely winner.

I just hope whatever happens in the oaks and derby that O'brien doesn't win.

Jack Bauer '24'
Jack Bauer '24' 29 May 18 17:24 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,436 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
Best form in the book and with the step up in trip to show further improvement makes her the most likely winner.

ground definitely coming in her favour as well. would say that would be against the haggas filly, would she want a battle/slog through soft ground having only had two runs?

lots of money for byebyebaby today apparently. got form in soft ground but smacks of clutching at straws to me.

4/1 WI with Betdull might be worth taking. I'm restricted to £2.50 e/w with these jokers after the Gold Cup in March.

We know there might be an issue with Magical, but why is Haggas waiting till tomorrow before deciding if Sea Of Class (SoC) runs or not? SoC  does not need supplementing, LTD is out and now very possibly so is Magical - why the wait then? The ground is not an issue either.

Think both Magical and Sea of Stars we be non runners by lunchtime unfortunately. Will be adding Magic Wand and Forever Together to my antepost portfolio with 356 NRNB and cash out. Will remove if no non runners.

sea the stars isn't running?

have backed wild illusion. my only bet in the race so far.

Looks like Sea of class is the first to go looking at the exchange.

byebyebaby to become a summer love sensation ?

Think Haggas needs to seriously look at himself if he thinks sea of class should be going anywhere but Epsom. Looks likely she wont go now, worse Oaks in ages and he wants to sidestep. Madness

Sea Of Class is looking likely to miss the engagement on the Exchange market, Magical could go either way; Magic Wand is holding up well, and sustained support for Forever Together and Bye Bye Baby.

Magical is out according to atr.

No Magical, Sea Of Class (complete lunacy there), Athena or Sizzling.  9 left.

The headmaster

is that deffo that both of them are out,

Hibore - you're now going to back Magic Wand and Forever Together???  Good grief.

He is an embarrasment to training, your hear him complaining about not having any good horses. I wouldn't send him a camel

As I've pointed out the race has little or no interest to me apart from Wild Illusion who I don't really fancy that much but win a few £k if she wins (Thanks to Impossible123). All my other best are "value" bets where I'm greening up the race. I cashed out a very nice profit (4/1) on LTD so can play the rest of the field E/W especially when Magic Wand and Forever Together will shorten when Magical and Sea or Class are taken out.

It's the poorest Oaks I've seen in years. Whoever wins this year will win by default that the classier horses have been withdrawn.

Yes those four have not been declared luckyme. 

Haggas didn't want to run the other one after the Musidora did he?  Wasn't going to stay apparently.  Like Give and Take's owner, if I owned Sea Of Class I'd have also put my foot down.  Things might not be prefect for her according to the trainer but it's the Oaks ffs, what exactly do you want?!  I could have seen her going off fav.  Not declaring the fav for the Oaks?  That's some big bollox you got there William.

With ground on the soft side Flattering could come back into the equation - she won easily over 10f on heavy in Ireland, but she did look a spent force over 1m 3f last time at Lingfield on good/firm ground.

Thanks Headmaster.

Unless Wild Illusion - the only one with group 1 form - wins in super fashion this year's Oaks renewal could turn out to be a very weak one as the likes of September, Lah Ti Dar and Happily all missing for one reason or another could easily surpass these lot come Ascot or York.

Once again this race has taken a bad turn for me so close to race day similar to the last couple of years, but a quick portfolio adjustment with cash-outs into Forever Together (new) and Wild Illusion (added) have re-established a probable winning position (hopefully); Wild Illusion, Magic Wand, Forever Together and Flattering in order of preference are running for me. If Bye Bye Baby wins I'd consider leaving this race alone next year unless another Minding is prominent early in the season.

Hopefully all nine will show up on friday, and good luck all!

I only backed one horse in this race two months ago,Wild Illusion e/w at 16s.

its all in the name....luckyme 

It is,...Wild Illusion and Magic Wand; Magical would have been the tricast combo.

Oh dear...I'd tried to forget Impossible backs horses names rather than form. Anyway we have a live one with Wild Illusion now is down to 5/2 from our 14/1 starting position.

Having bailed out of my antepist September bets my only bet now is Forever Together each way @ 16/1 (and in an e/w double with Delano Roosevelt).

However the going is a worry and I can see why Bye Bye Baby has shortened up - could Moore end up riding it?

nicked from elsewhere

UPDATE ON THE OAKS BET

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

THE 2ND FAV AND 3RD FAV HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN THIS MORNING

WILD ILLUSION NOW CLEAR 5/2 FAV WITH ALL BOOKS


Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 2yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry

I thought I would let the dust settle for a while before I had a look back at the 1000 guineas. Wild Illusion finished 4th beaten 2 and 3/4L. Some observations from the race,

She was first off the bridle, 2f out she was literally being scrubbed along with Jame Doyle really getting down in the saddle, the winner passed her as if was trotting down to the start.
So her record is, raced four times, won twice, lost twice.
Made the running in the two races she won, didn't make it in the two she lost.
I think James Doyle when he got a good break from the stalls and was in the lead must have sensed/known she was not fit enough to go the speed he wanted to go, for that mile race. He let the horse that eventually finish 2nd pass his filly as if to say, I am not going any faster, first time out when the Oaks is our target.

I am quite happy with the race she ran.

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.

James Doyle said after the race,

I'm pretty pleased with Wild Illusion. She coped with the ground pretty well and is crying out for a bit more distance.

Roll on Epsom.


Jerry

ffs Jerry
ya know nothin about horse racing,

I think she will go off at the 7/1 mark

Ya Clown Ya.

Hibore, only sometimes when the formline is unconvincing or too insurmountable to decipher eg Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, Rhyme 'N' Reason the Grand National; September would have been my number 1 choice this year, and Promise to Be True last year - both non-runners - 100% calamities!

This has been one of the most bizarre races I've ever got involved in. Just did some calculations and I've nearly won £1k before the race has run and 3 of my 4 anteposts have been scratched. This must be easier than working if you keep an eye on the exchanges 24hrs.

Sea of Class not being declared is probably the most bizarre decision I've seen since I can remember. It's not that surprising given WH's body language when asked about it recently, something more to this I suspect.

I find it very odd when the likes of Sea Of Class and Sun Maiden duck the race when most of the main opposition has come out. Appreciate the latter's inexperience but even so, there's only 1 Oaks. It has been a difficult year for AP backers in the Classics. I am clutching Wild Illusion for Oaks at double figure price. Think she will relish cut in the ground and shapes like a staying filly to me. Just don't want it to end up heavy which could stretch her stamina too far. Good luck all

@angela Rebecchi, i honestly have no idea what he is thinking with sea of class, hardly any of them have buckets of experience, forever together is still a maiden and is 4th Fav, top rated is only 110, she wouldn't even have to be a world beater, just a runner.

There has to be more to it than meets the eye. I saw an interview with Haggas where he stated that he'd entered her in the Ribblesdale - her name does n't appear in the entries for that race but she is in the Coronation Stakes. A step back in trip to a mile hardly seems the logical step after her Newbury win so I'm even wondering if they've made a mistake and put her in the wrong Royal Ascot race.He also acknowledged that it requires a hefty supplementary fee to put her in the French Oaks and said the owner was keen to run at Epsom on the basis that 'there is only one Oaks!' Although he also mentioned that Mrs. Choi would probably leave it up to him ultimately.

So, on the face of it,worst case scenario,he's chosen not to run her at Epsom and will need to ask the owner to pay a hefty fee for the privelege of supplementing her for the French Oaks or the Ribblesdale.

Either the owner has a lot of faith in him or the filly had better win next time out or both!

The only mitigation I can think of is that he does n't want to run an inexperienced filly on soft ground on an idiosyncratic track for fear of ruining her future prospects. But the Oaks is always at Epsom and he knew the filly was only ever going to go there off the back of two runs.Her foal date was 23/5 so I suppose that could be a factor too.

I guess the race can have a detrimental effect if a filly is n't ready for it - Harlequeen, Skiffle and Diamonds Pour Moi in 2016 and Natavia last year potential recent examples (but maybe they just were n't very good).

There's surely a missing piece to this jigsaw somewhere...

agree with fallen angel and was saying a while back on the forum that haggas seems to go missing in the big races. Doesn't help if he doesn't even run the ones that had a chance.

Looking at it from Haggas point of view, then it's understandable in a way because only on her third run, an inexperienced filly with loads of pace which she showed on her second start, she might not get home on the soft ground and that experience might leave it's mark on her.

On the other hand it's a very poor race now with so many absentees so there's an argument for just rolling the dice.

Its a gutless decision but you won't hear that in any article in the racing press, shame there is no independent media which could actually call it as they see it. I love the racing post but the article barely mentioned the fact that it might be a bit strange pulling out the 2nd fav, from sea the stars....... and a staying mare.

She only made her debut a few weeks ago, every other runner has been in serious training since last year. He obviously thinks she is not quite forward enough and would rather take a patient approach for fear of harming her future progression.

There is an interview with Haggas in this weeks Weekender in which he makes a comment about Shaamit and how he regrets giving way to the owner's wish to run in the KG after Epsom, a decision which he clearly believes was not the right thing to do by the horse, and how now he is confident and experienced enough to overrule an owner if needs be. The man is a top trainer who puts his horses first and if it is his judgement that for whatever reason SOC is not going to benefit for running on soft ground in the Oaks then I think that we should respect him for making that decision  irrespective of the flak that he surely knows he will get especially from A/P backers talking through their pockets. A/P betting is punting at its riskiest something we all know and I would guess that everyone of us has had something like this happen many times before.

Regarding SOC: her owner was keen to run but trainer the opposite. Why delayed the decision to run or not run till today? At least volunteer a reason eg prevailing soft ground, etc, given the no shows by LTD and Magical - that's not too difficult to do, surely.

Soft ground probably swayed his decision.

Yes to me Haggas was reluctant all along but he might have been talked into it by the owner if the ground had been better. Soft ground and it's a relatively simple decision not to run if they think it's not the right thing for the filly. Should be applauded. Quite likely to be heavy ground by Thursday evening.

In fact waterlogged and an inspection Friday morning is certainly plausible looking at the forecast

If torrential rain does materialise tonight and tomorrow afternoon, I'd drive the short distance to see for myself. But I hope it is slow side of good (or better) come saturday afternoon.

Just to be clear, I don't have a bet in the race so no pocket talking.He was perfectly entitled to wait until this morning to make a decision (that's surely what the final declaration deadline is for) and said all along he would do so - he'd obviously have a better idea about the likely ground.

I'm more intrigued to see where she will turn up next - it would n't be that surprising if the ground in Chantilly is on the soft side also.

I hope it's slow side of good too but that looks pretty unlikely. Would have to more or less miss all the rain for that. Some places in that area likely to get a deluge but hopefully somehow Epsom misses it.

doubt the ground will be heavy. people talking about an inspection, don't be daft!

it's south of england in june, how soft can the ground be? people always overegg these things. every year there's some kind of crazy talk about the ground at this meeting or at royal ascot, and logic prevails and the ground is never that bad.

think it will be a slog but a long way from heavy ground.

The ground isn’t too bad. Depends on the rain fall tomorrow but I’d guess soft would be worst case.

Magic Wand at around 5/1 is looking exceptional value given the runners.

Walked some of the track near Tattenham Corner tonight and it was much better than expected. Have certainly known it softer in the past when the official going was Good to Soft. All depends on the rain just wondering if there is a biblical deluge will they postpone the Oaks / Coronation Cup to Saturday?

Forecast this morning nowhere near as bad with very scattered storms and most going to the south and west of London- Epsom might not get a single drop today.

Either way I have looked at the race again this morning, focussing on breeding and everything has now become crystal clear - Perfect Clarity wins the Oaks.

No rain so far today. Heavy cloud only.

Radar still looks pretty bad to me. Be surprised if it isn't heavy tomorrow. Rain arriving by 12.00ish

12pm and getting brighter. Still no rain in sight.

I'm in surrey at the moment about 25 miles away, and it's overcast and humid but indeed no rain around and looks like it's brightening up.

wouldn't be surprised if some thunderstorms around though as very muggy.

Won't get a drop I tell ya.

it's now raining here and the sky is looking extremely dark...

No rain yet in Epsom. Nice and bright and warm

Shower only lasted 5 mins but now bright again. My mate's wife works by the race track which is helpful for days like this.

I'm in Ashtead which is a 2 miles away and no rain here all day.

i'm pretty sure there will be rain in epsom http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5790145/UK-weather-Danger-life-warni...

Still no rain.

But it looks like it's about to lash down....think our luck has run out.

shouldn't you want a bit of rain anyway given you're on wild illusion?

I don't mind a bit of rain but would prefer good/soft or soft. If it gets worse than that it's more of a lottery.

Still no rain and brightening up again. I'm like Lucy Verasamy today.

Very overcast but no rain in Cheam; not looking threatening either just grey sky everywhere.

looking at that guineas run, I must admit wild illusion didn't run like a filly who would relish going up to a mile and a half. There was a few who passed her late on.

although that might have been because she was up there with the pace and got tired later on rather than a staying issue.

what seems more worrying is what I was reading in the weekender that she doesn't do very well on trends, in other words the fillies who have been doing well in the oaks in recent years have been more lightly raced, those with group one form who end up going off favourite have been doing fairly badly, food for thought and indeed the trends man was taking her on with confidence.

No matter how much I dislike connections of Wild Illusion given their lack of success from unlimited financial resources I'm beginning to warm to her. Let's hope this is not misguided, and goes some way to rectifying their "confidence" in Masar in the 2000G.

Any rain over night lads.

May have been odd shower but nothing substantial. Going may be good/soft now

slightly worrying that the godolphin filly is wearing cheekpieces. any kind of headgear normally puts me off, although ruler of the world won the derby a few years back wearing them.

Interesting. The jockeys have decided that it is faster down the stands rails but on the clock for the first two races, the far side is faster.

Splendid.
Just need Delano Roosevelt to win now for a life changer.

sad to see the hated o'brien crew come up trumps again.

i would love it, love it if his lot came up short in the derby tomorrow.

call me embittered but hate the lot of that shady crew and have a particular savage hatred reserved for aidan and his false modesty.

hate the guy and wish ballydoyle the worst. hope their whole business collapses and magnier goes bankrupt.

Why do you feel like that to them?

Steamship 01 Jun 18 23:43 Joined: 01 Apr 10 | Topic/replies: 7,361 | Blogger: Steamship's blog
Why do you feel like that to them?

good question. I've never followed O'Brien and never liked his outfit. Never followed tipsters either. think you need a sheep mentality to do either.

Share the same views, lewisham. I find it false modesty & the whole operation is appallingly clandestine - punters are unable to figure out what they are up to, only for the 'maiden' to win this particular Oaks. It seems not to matter which horse of theirs wins, just so long as Coolmore wins. There aren't enough questions asked regarding their 'team' tactics in the Classics either. One stable should not be allowed to monopolise things the way they do. It's borderline bringing the sport into disrepute but the fawning racing press never ask questions and just talk about AOB's brilliance.

counting the coronation cup no pundits asking how many so called blue blooded plodders Obrien ran at the weekend, bad news for weld Obrien might aim them at galway for pin money, horses been beaten absolute miles at the weekend,including French race at least 13 or 14 not sighted,chuck in a few from last weekends irish classics and it looks like its a throw as much shoite operation and hope some of it sticks

It begs the question...are some of AOB's horses ok? Not getting a placed horse in the Derby from so many arrows dispatched did not instil confidence as to the well-being of some of his charges, I'd have thought.