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Epsom Oaks 2018 (1st June)

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Replies: 159
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 May 18 15:54

Hibore 29 May 18 16:06 Joined: 23 Jun 07 | Topic/replies: 1,358 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
Magical taking a ride out to 10/1 again. Filling in a joint while cantering. Decision whether she runs in the morning.

I've removed all bets with NRNB and moved to Sea of Class as Wild Illusion nicely covered between 14/1 - 8/1.

Never had a rollercoaster Antepost like this before.


are you not just guessing now given the one you were originally bullish about, lah ti dar, is a non-runner.

the one thing sea of class has in her favour is that she's by seathestars. I have a theory his progeny are ideally suited to epsom. He's had harzand and taghrooda in recent years as winners for him.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 May 18 16:16
This has been an awful race for me; So Mi Dar two years ago; Rhododendron last year. And this year, September, and possibly Magical too - her scan was promising. Either Wild illusion, Magic Wand or Flattering obliging for me to show a profit (more) if Saxon Warrior wins too.

Unfortunate timing but I hope Magical runs otherwise the Ribblesdale could be her next target, I think.
By:
Hibore
When: 29 May 18 16:17
Absolutely..I admit I'm guessing now :-)

LTD was the only horse I fancied strongly for the Oaks. However, did agree with impossible that Wild Illusion @ 14/1 was too big a few weeks ago so backed her accordingly. When I could see LTD was likely to be withdrawn I've had some value bets on horses I knew would contract significantly in price (WI, Magical and Sea of Class). I obviously would like Wild Illusion to win but to be honest think it's so wide open that a shock is definitely on the cards.

I live near Epsom and the rain has been falling all afternoon to complicate matters further.
By:
Hibore
When: 29 May 18 16:19
Wild Illusion coming in for heavy support in last hour or so. Anyone know why ?
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 29 May 18 16:24
Best form in the book and with the step up in trip to show further improvement makes her the most likely winner.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 May 18 16:39
I just hope whatever happens in the oaks and derby that O'brien doesn't win.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 May 18 16:42
Jack Bauer '24'
Jack Bauer '24' 29 May 18 17:24 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,436 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
Best form in the book and with the step up in trip to show further improvement makes her the most likely winner.


ground definitely coming in her favour as well. would say that would be against the haggas filly, would she want a battle/slog through soft ground having only had two runs?

lots of money for byebyebaby today apparently. got form in soft ground but smacks of clutching at straws to me.
By:
Hibore
When: 29 May 18 16:55
4/1 WI with Betdull might be worth taking. I'm restricted to £2.50 e/w with these jokers after the Gold Cup in March.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 May 18 21:47
We know there might be an issue with Magical, but why is Haggas waiting till tomorrow before deciding if Sea Of Class (SoC) runs or not? SoC  does not need supplementing, LTD is out and now very possibly so is Magical - why the wait then? The ground is not an issue either.
By:
Hibore
When: 30 May 18 06:49
Think both Magical and Sea of Stars we be non runners by lunchtime unfortunately. Will be adding Magic Wand and Forever Together to my antepost portfolio with 356 NRNB and cash out. Will remove if no non runners.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 30 May 18 06:59
sea the stars isn't running? Surprised

have backed wild illusion. my only bet in the race so far.
By:
Hibore
When: 30 May 18 07:37
Looks like Sea of class is the first to go looking at the exchange.
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 30 May 18 07:39
byebyebaby to become a summer love sensation ?Mischief
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 30 May 18 08:57
Think Haggas needs to seriously look at himself if he thinks sea of class should be going anywhere but Epsom. Looks likely she wont go now, worse Oaks in ages and he wants to sidestep. Madness
By:
impossible123
When: 30 May 18 09:02
Sea Of Class is looking likely to miss the engagement on the Exchange market, Magical could go either way; Magic Wand is holding up well, and sustained support for Forever Together and Bye Bye Baby.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 May 18 09:11
Magical is out according to atr.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 30 May 18 09:19
No Magical, Sea Of Class (complete lunacy there), Athena or Sizzling.  9 left.
By:
luckyme
When: 30 May 18 09:23
The headmaster

is that deffo that both of them are out,
By:
The Headmaster
When: 30 May 18 09:24
Hibore - you're now going to back Magic Wand and Forever Together???  Good grief.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 30 May 18 09:27
He is an embarrasment to training, your hear him complaining about not having any good horses. I wouldn't send him a camel
By:
Hibore
When: 30 May 18 09:40
As I've pointed out the race has little or no interest to me apart from Wild Illusion who I don't really fancy that much but win a few £k if she wins (Thanks to Impossible123). All my other best are "value" bets where I'm greening up the race. I cashed out a very nice profit (4/1) on LTD so can play the rest of the field E/W especially when Magic Wand and Forever Together will shorten when Magical and Sea or Class are taken out.

It's the poorest Oaks I've seen in years. Whoever wins this year will win by default that the classier horses have been withdrawn.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 30 May 18 09:43
Yes those four have not been declared luckyme. 

Haggas didn't want to run the other one after the Musidora did he?  Wasn't going to stay apparently.  Like Give and Take's owner, if I owned Sea Of Class I'd have also put my foot down.  Things might not be prefect for her according to the trainer but it's the Oaks ffs, what exactly do you want?!  I could have seen her going off fav.  Not declaring the fav for the Oaks?  That's some big bollox you got there William.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 May 18 09:43
With ground on the soft side Flattering could come back into the equation - she won easily over 10f on heavy in Ireland, but she did look a spent force over 1m 3f last time at Lingfield on good/firm ground.
By:
luckyme
When: 30 May 18 09:52
Thanks Headmaster.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 May 18 09:56
Unless Wild Illusion - the only one with group 1 form - wins in super fashion this year's Oaks renewal could turn out to be a very weak one as the likes of September, Lah Ti Dar and Happily all missing for one reason or another could easily surpass these lot come Ascot or York.

Once again this race has taken a bad turn for me so close to race day similar to the last couple of years, but a quick portfolio adjustment with cash-outs into Forever Together (new) and Wild Illusion (added) have re-established a probable winning position (hopefully); Wild Illusion, Magic Wand, Forever Together and Flattering in order of preference are running for me. If Bye Bye Baby wins I'd consider leaving this race alone next year unless another Minding is prominent early in the season.

Hopefully all nine will show up on friday, and good luck all!
By:
luckyme
When: 30 May 18 10:02
I only backed one horse in this race two months ago,Wild Illusion e/w at 16s.

its all in the name....luckyme  Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 30 May 18 10:10
It is,...Wild Illusion and Magic Wand; Magical would have been the tricast combo.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 30 May 18 10:24
Having bailed out of my antepist September betsCry my only bet now is Forever Together each way @ 16/1 (and in an e/w double with Delano Roosevelt).

However the going is a worry and I can see why Bye Bye Baby has shortened up - could Moore end up riding it?
By:
Hibore
When: 30 May 18 10:24
Oh dear...I'd tried to forget Impossible backs horses names rather than form. Anyway we have a live one with Wild Illusion now is down to 5/2 from our 14/1 starting position.
By:
luckyme
When: 30 May 18 10:28
nicked from elsewhere

UPDATE ON THE OAKS BET

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

THE 2ND FAV AND 3RD FAV HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN THIS MORNING

WILD ILLUSION NOW CLEAR 5/2 FAV WITH ALL BOOKS


Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 2yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry

I thought I would let the dust settle for a while before I had a look back at the 1000 guineas. Wild Illusion finished 4th beaten 2 and 3/4L. Some observations from the race,

She was first off the bridle, 2f out she was literally being scrubbed along with Jame Doyle really getting down in the saddle, the winner passed her as if was trotting down to the start.
So her record is, raced four times, won twice, lost twice.
Made the running in the two races she won, didn't make it in the two she lost.
I think James Doyle when he got a good break from the stalls and was in the lead must have sensed/known she was not fit enough to go the speed he wanted to go, for that mile race. He let the horse that eventually finish 2nd pass his filly as if to say, I am not going any faster, first time out when the Oaks is our target.

I am quite happy with the race she ran.

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.

James Doyle said after the race,

I'm pretty pleased with Wild Illusion. She coped with the ground pretty well and is crying out for a bit more distance.

Roll on Epsom.


Jerry

ffs Jerry
ya know nothin about horse racing,

I think she will go off at the 7/1 mark

Ya Clown Ya.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 May 18 10:30
Hibore, only sometimes when the formline is unconvincing or too insurmountable to decipher eg Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, Rhyme 'N' Reason the Grand National; September would have been my number 1 choice this year, and Promise to Be True last year - both non-runners - 100% calamities!
By:
Hibore
When: 30 May 18 11:24
This has been one of the most bizarre races I've ever got involved in. Just did some calculations and I've nearly won £1k before the race has run and 3 of my 4 anteposts have been scratched. This must be easier than working if you keep an eye on the exchanges 24hrs.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 30 May 18 12:04
Sea of Class not being declared is probably the most bizarre decision I've seen since I can remember. It's not that surprising given WH's body language when asked about it recently, something more to this I suspect.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 30 May 18 13:25
I find it very odd when the likes of Sea Of Class and Sun Maiden duck the race when most of the main opposition has come out. Appreciate the latter's inexperience but even so, there's only 1 Oaks. It has been a difficult year for AP backers in the Classics. I am clutching Wild Illusion for Oaks at double figure price. Think she will relish cut in the ground and shapes like a staying filly to me. Just don't want it to end up heavy which could stretch her stamina too far. Good luck all
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 30 May 18 13:53
@angela Rebecchi, i honestly have no idea what he is thinking with sea of class, hardly any of them have buckets of experience, forever together is still a maiden and is 4th Fav, top rated is only 110, she wouldn't even have to be a world beater, just a runner.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 30 May 18 13:53
There has to be more to it than meets the eye. I saw an interview with Haggas where he stated that he'd entered her in the Ribblesdale - her name does n't appear in the entries for that race but she is in the Coronation Stakes. A step back in trip to a mile hardly seems the logical step after her Newbury win so I'm even wondering if they've made a mistake and put her in the wrong Royal Ascot race.He also acknowledged that it requires a hefty supplementary fee to put her in the French Oaks and said the owner was keen to run at Epsom on the basis that 'there is only one Oaks!' Although he also mentioned that Mrs. Choi would probably leave it up to him ultimately.

So, on the face of it,worst case scenario,he's chosen not to run her at Epsom and will need to ask the owner to pay a hefty fee for the privelege of supplementing her for the French Oaks or the Ribblesdale.

Either the owner has a lot of faith in him or the filly had better win next time out or both!

The only mitigation I can think of is that he does n't want to run an inexperienced filly on soft ground on an idiosyncratic track for fear of ruining her future prospects. But the Oaks is always at Epsom and he knew the filly was only ever going to go there off the back of two runs.Her foal date was 23/5 so I suppose that could be a factor too.

I guess the race can have a detrimental effect if a filly is n't ready for it - Harlequeen, Skiffle and Diamonds Pour Moi in 2016 and Natavia last year potential recent examples (but maybe they just were n't very good).

There's surely a missing piece to this jigsaw somewhere...
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 30 May 18 14:13
agree with fallen angel and was saying a while back on the forum that haggas seems to go missing in the big races. Doesn't help if he doesn't even run the ones that had a chance.

Looking at it from Haggas point of view, then it's understandable in a way because only on her third run, an inexperienced filly with loads of pace which she showed on her second start, she might not get home on the soft ground and that experience might leave it's mark on her.

On the other hand it's a very poor race now with so many absentees so there's an argument for just rolling the dice.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 30 May 18 14:18
Its a gutless decision but you won't hear that in any article in the racing press, shame there is no independent media which could actually call it as they see it. I love the racing post but the article barely mentioned the fact that it might be a bit strange pulling out the 2nd fav, from sea the stars....... and a staying mare.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 30 May 18 14:30
She only made her debut a few weeks ago, every other runner has been in serious training since last year. He obviously thinks she is not quite forward enough and would rather take a patient approach for fear of harming her future progression.
By:
Sandown
When: 30 May 18 14:52
There is an interview with Haggas in this weeks Weekender in which he makes a comment about Shaamit and how he regrets giving way to the owner's wish to run in the KG after Epsom, a decision which he clearly believes was not the right thing to do by the horse, and how now he is confident and experienced enough to overrule an owner if needs be. The man is a top trainer who puts his horses first and if it is his judgement that for whatever reason SOC is not going to benefit for running on soft ground in the Oaks then I think that we should respect him for making that decision  irrespective of the flak that he surely knows he will get especially from A/P backers talking through their pockets. A/P betting is punting at its riskiest something we all know and I would guess that everyone of us has had something like this happen many times before.
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