Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Figgis
31 Aug 17 13:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 8,597 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
As someone has taken their ball away here is a new Arc thread.
All posts welcome except those that state the bleeding obvious e.g. 'The favourite Enable will start favourite with a favourite's chance, i.e. the best chance in the race, I firmly believe'. That sort of thing Wink

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 12  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 12 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 448
By:
bobbyjo
When: 31 Aug 17 14:23
Connections of Cracksman are still keeping all options open for the progressive colt following his impressive victory in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last week.

The next possible race for Cracksman is the Prix Niel at Chantilly on September 10, for which there is a second entry stage on Friday, but owner Anthony Oppenheimer has played down suggestions that this will act as a stepping stone to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Trainer John Gosden said straight after the horse's eyecatching performance on the Knavesmire that he might not even run again this year.

However, Cracksman holds entries in both the Irish (14/1) and English Champion Stakes (10/1) and the Arc (8/1), for which his stablemate Enable is hot favourite.

Oppenheimer told Press Association Sport: "I think Mr Gosden is just keeping an eye on the horse and trying to work things out.

"The horse is entered for the Arc, the Irish Champion Stakes, the English Champion Stakes and for the Prix Niel.

"If Enable is going to run in the Arc I don't think he will want to take her on. I could be wrong, but it's the same jockey (Frankie Dettori) so I don't think we'd want to change if we can help it.

"He may decide, depending on ground conditions and everything else, not to run the horse this year.

"What we don't want is for the horse to have a hard race going into the winter. He had a very nice race at York and he knew it, too.

"We'll just have to wait and see as the trainer is keeping all his options open."

Seems strange to worry about the jockey......Confused
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 14:36
They seem really mindful of the horse's 4yo career above anything else. Probably why the Leger has been ruled out as they'll be hoping they can bag a 10f Gp1 with him next year and don't want the Leger 'plodder' tag attached to him. For me, he will have to make above average improvement to take a top 10f race next year, I have him a good few pounds behind the same stable's Nathaniel at the same stage. Assuming he remains well I'd take the opportunity to strike while conditions are more in his favour, but it's their choice.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 31 Aug 17 15:04
Unbelievable that someone can have a thread deleted just because they don't like some of the content. It's not like there was anything offensive posted, just a robust exchange of views between adults. Pathetic stuff the mods to kowtow in such a way.
Anyhoo, I think the filly is making the book for those who think she may be over the top. Rather than grimly laying her, finding an alternative is the plan, but they're an uninspiring bunch, so maybe a surprise winner? I know he is entered up all over the place, but following Cracksman's York romp, Capri's Irish Derby win looks tasty enough. He's 20/1 presumably because he is expected to go for the Leger, but there's no reason why he couldn't do both, he's had a decent break since then.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 15:46
Hi Figgis. Short thread? Wink

I won't ask who you think will start favourite BUT what price do you think Enable will start and what do you see as the liveliest outside at this moment in time.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 15:52
Brigust, if nothing comes out of the next significant races I don't think she'll start much different than her price now, around evens. As for a lively outsider, I'm more interested in something with a reasonably strong chance of winning and the only horse I'd consider backing at the prices is Cracksman, but that may change.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 15:58
Have you had a bet in the race yet and, if not why not?
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 16:02
Because I'm not interested in trading. As soon as Gosden said he was running Enable in the King George I thought it would reduce her chances and still think that. If he'd have skipped the KG I'd have been backing her even at current odds.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 16:10
Given that you spend so long working on your fabulous ratings and dynamic sectionals have you made your decision on ratings or sectionals? Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 16:13
I don't use sectionals for ratings or anything more than to confirm how a race was run, if it needed confirming. My thoughts on Enable were posted on the Oaks thread before the Irish Oaks. Unfortunately Gosden didn't follow my script Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 16:17
Very good. I am currently torn between going to my sister's 70th birthday bash in Oxford or going to Chantilly. I have already booked flights to go to France on the Friday before the Arc without knowing about the surprise birthday party.
Given how sensitive and caring you are, do you think I should go to the party or go to Chantilly?
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 16:20
The birthday bash is on 1st October.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 16:21
As whatever wins you'll no doubt find fault you might get more pleasure from the birthday party?Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 16:28
You are probably right. I'm struggling to find an excuse that doesn't include going to the races.

Keeping the questions on the Arc theme. To please everyone. Wink

I have backed Cracksman at 33s on the books with betsky and on here at 36s, 40s, 46s, 50s and 55s to win a nice bit. Do I throw a monkey at Enable to cover my stake or do I lay off at around 8s or 9s on here which will cost me a couple of K?
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 31 Aug 17 16:36
Brig .. we woz robbed in the Derby was a boy now is a man.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 16:46
Loto you cannot believe how much it p i sses me off every time the commentators say 'Cracksman should be a dual Derby winner'.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Aug 17 16:56
i can't believe a thread is allowed to be removed, people actually put some effort into posting and it's wiped out, not on imo

anyway moving on, what are people making of the japanese horse, i did get the impression lemaire thought he was much better than last years flop but he seems a very short price to me
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 16:58
Which commentators have said that?
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 17:07
No point in asking me, harry, I can only take an educated guess at this Japanese form. In the past I've thought most of their runners have been underpriced because of some near misses and the feeling that 'well they're going to do it sometime'. On the face of it his form looks less impressive than some of their previous runners. If Enable does underperform, however, unless something else comes out beforehand they probably won't get many easier opportunities. I'm sure they will win it one day but I still won't be backing him.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 17:13
HC the Japanese horse will have to improve a lot on known form imo. Satono Diamond was beaten in last years Japanese Derby by Makahiki who won the Niel beating Midterm narrowly then was never in a challenging position 24 lengths behind Found in the Arc. Has been running over longer and on firm ground. The Found form is probably misleading and if I remember the 'time' guys were impressed with his Niel run but it will be a guess and he is short enough.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 31 Aug 17 17:22
I'm on Enable this time to goodish money at 6/1 and 11/2 laid a fair wodge off at 2.2 something might be 4 and quite a bit at 2.1 but couldn't resist having £400 on at 2.4 to pay for a bottle of pom pom which i'm glugging right now like supping lager and it tastes real good. Life is damned good.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 17:27
Maybe certain people were impressed with Makahiki's Niel run from a sectional point of view but as the overall time for that race was garbage any splits were pretty much worthless.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 17:49
That is not my territory Figgis. But if Makahiki's run in last year's Arc can be completely ignored and if Enable's form isn't as good as the way she wins makes it look and if Cracksman hasn't really improved on his Derby form the Japanese horse may not have such a lot to beat.

If I had a Japanese classic horse and multiple Gr1 winner that definitely stays I would look at the form and think it has some pretty big holes in it.

However looking closely through the form we have a horse beaten 10 lengths by Jack Hobbs and co in Meydan and half a length by Euro Charlene also in Meydan. Not really top European Gr1 form is my guess on paper.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 17:51
if Enable's form isn't as good as the way she wins makes it look

The way she makes it look?
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 18:03
Sounds Of Earth was well beaten by Satono Diamond. All of Sounds Of Earth's previous form to Meydan had been on firm ground and looking at his run ratio it looks like he may be a horse who has had some problems anyway so I wouldn't hold that against Satono Diamond. As I said, I won't be backing him, but in a race with only one standout performer I wouldn't say it would be a surprise if he won.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 18:06
That'll do. Just being devil's advocate. If they consider Enable's best race win was the King George then looking at last years for beating Ulysses and Idaho wouldn't cause that many ripples.

The Japanese horse got touched off in their Derby and easily won their St Leger. He then won the Arima Kinen which is one of their top races won by Gentildonna and Orfevre. In that race he beat Kitasan Black who had just bolted up in the Japan Cup. He has only run twice this season and clearly runs well fresh having won first time out and after a lay off.

They could be thinking their horse has been beating Group 1 horses narrowly while Enable and Cracksman have beaten non Gr1 horses easily. If you see what I mean?
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 18:13
He has only run twice this season and clearly runs well fresh having won first time out and after a lay off

This is what I'd be thinking in their shoes. Our horse (the Japanese) probably wouldn't be good enough to beat a few of these at their peak of their powers but there's a good chance at least a few of them won't be whereas our horse hopefully still is.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 18:13
*at the peak of their powers
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 19:13
That's fair enough I just think they will fear Enable. Of the other's Highland Reel and Brametot are Gr1 winners but Eminent and Cracksman are not. The rest look infinitely beatable or may not even run. Looking down the list of entries it does not look a great race.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Aug 17 19:38
fair comments i can only feel he is this short because of lemaires comments that he thought he was much better than makahiki, i know he ran like a drain last year but i think he was better than the form shown and blobbed on the day. However i have no doubt satono diamond can run well i just can't make out the price, he is very short and doesn't look as good as some of the others that have tried like you say, anyway like always there runners always add a bit of spice to the race
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Aug 17 19:49
After a summer blossoming into Europe's top older horse Ulysses is under consideration for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on October 1 and a rematch with King George conqueror Enable.

The Juddmonte International and Eclipse winner could bid to add Europe's biggest prize to his haul at Chantilly before competing at the Breeders' Cup in November, according to Alan Cooper, racing manager for the Niarchos family, owner/breeders of the four-year-old.

However, Cracksman's prospects of contesting the Arc, for which he is the general 8-1 second favourite, appear to be receding.

The unavailability of Frankie Dettori, who will be on favourite Enable at Chantilly, is a key consideration for owner-breeder Anthony Oppenheimer. Enable is hot favourite at as short as 4-5, and no bigger than even money.

Cracksman ran away with the Greeat Voltigeur, but owner-breeder Anthony Oppenheimer thinks an Arc bid is unlikely
Cracksman ran away with the Greeat Voltigeur, but owner-breeder Anthony Oppenheimer thinks an Arc bid is unlikely
Mark Cranham

Ulysses was on Thursday a top-priced 12-1 for the Arc, an option that remains on the table for the improving four-year-old should he be showing trainer Sir Michael Stoute the right signs.

Cooper said on Thursday: "Michael wanted time to think about the different options with him, bearing in mind he wanted to give him a break after York.

"He’s not going to the Irish Champion Stakes, but the Arc is a possibility and Michael will see if he takes his chance at Chantilly. It’s very much dictated by the trainer, he sees the horse every day and it’s only been eight days since York. We won’t rush into a decision and will do what’s best for the horse."

Of plans for next year, Cooper added: "That’s a decision we’ll make in partnership with Sir Michael. We’ll take it race by race and see whether it's best to race on at five with him."

Placed in the Derby and Irish Derby, Cracksman emerged as a possible Arc contender with a destructive six-length victory in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last week.

With Dettori already allied to John Gosden stablemate Enable, Cracksman’s owner-breeder Oppenheimer believes other targets are more likely, with the Frankel colt also entered for the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes, Qipco Champion Stakes and Qatar Prix Niel.

He said: “We’ll consider the possibilities and he’s entered in the four races, of which I’d say the Arc is the most unlikely one.

“Frankie’s going to be on Enable, so that would count against us, but I don’t know plans as I haven’t spoken to Mr Gosden. I’d like Frankie to ride Cracksman really as we get on very well with him.”

Cracksman’s programme for the remainder of this season will also be guided by the desire to have him performing at the highest level as a four-year-old.

“We want him to run as a four-year-old, so we wouldn’t want to give him an unduly hard race at the end of his three-year-old season,” Oppenheimer added.

“It’s very difficult to know what to do. Mr Gosden will consider his work in comparison to before the York run and we’ll see what he says. He’s come out of the race well, but that’s not to say he’s as well as he was going into the race.”

The owner-breeder, who won the Derby and Arc with the Gosden-trained Golden Horn, added: “We’re delighted to have such a nice horse and one who is rated so highly, but it’s very difficult to know what to do with him now. At lot will depend on what's been happening at home.

“My guess – and it’s only that – would be that he’d go for the Prix Niel, which is a Group 2 with no penalty, or the Champion Stakes, should it cut up a bit.”
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 19:56
Don't blame them for skipping the Irish Champion with Ulysses, after backing him at York I'd have been looking to oppose him if turned out so quickly.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 20:12
Cracksman's owner has always sounded like he doesn't know what is going on. It's almost as if he is either hasn't a clue or is putting everyone away.
Stepping Cracksman back to 10f would be the last thing to do surely and waiting for a 4 year old season when he would be meeting the top English and French 3 year olds sounds just as daft. I could understand if the horse wasn't ready or that he wouldn't be getting his ground but this whole affair sounds completely idiotic. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
I think I said on the missing thread that I would be running Ulysses so that is no surprise. I just cannot see how he can beat the favourite. Never fear one horse I suppose.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Aug 17 20:23
i'll be really pleased ulysses running, the race needs some class but have to say it will be disappointing if cracksman didn't have a stab and i don't get the 10f thing with him either...the other pointless thing would be running in the prix niel, anyway none of it makes much sense to me, it is the premier race in europe and you have an improving 3 year old colt getting allowances
By:
RozelKid
When: 31 Aug 17 21:24
oh ffs - i pasted alot of entries to the trials at Chantilly , why was the thread deleted ? ffs

Who is responsible for that ?
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 21:49
Figgis what is the chance of Cliffs of Moher running? Irrespective of AOB saying he thinks he is a 10f horse he has surely shown he isn't speedy enough and his best form is in the Derby beating Eminent and Cracksman. He is entered.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 17 22:03
I watched the Eclipse and he certainly ran down and past Eminent at Sandown looking like 12f wouldn't be a problem. In fact looking all stamina. Don't know what you think.
By:
Figgis
When: 31 Aug 17 22:20
Brigust, I'm confident he doesn't quite stay 12f. Obviously he stayed it up to a point in the Derby but I mean its not his optimum trip. Cracksman then wasn't as good as he is now. I have COM's best run this year in the Eclipse, even though he was well beaten there it was a much better race than the Derby. They may try to step him up again as a last resort but unfortunately I think they have on their hands a horse not fast enough to win a 10f all age Gp1 but also without the stamina to win one over further.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Sep 17 13:21
Not the first time this has been asked but can someone explain why a whole thread has been deleted and who is responsible?  Unless someone was threatening to shoot themselves at having to trawl through Brig and Figs posts I cannot see how this could happen.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Sep 17 13:39
Figgis I was just looking at him when compared with Ulysses. The both won their maidens, CoM possibly better than Ulysses, both ran in the Derby, CoM finishing better than Ulysses and, unlike CoM, Ulysses never tackled a European Gr1 until the POW stakes this year whereas CoM went to the Eclipse and Juddmonte. Some of us have doubts about his stamina and the same applies to CoM. Just trying to find a race I would like to see him run in where he has a chance.
Page 1 of 12  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 12 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com