Great to see you back Figgis.

I just can’t have Acclamation siring a Guineas winner, but the market seems very positive and Stoute is not one to run a horse for the sake of it. I’ve actually backed him for the Commonwealth Cup @16/1.

Market on here suggest Saxon Warrior will go off favourite.

Do you fancy one?

yes I'll have a bitter.

joking aside not really. although I recall at newmarket keiran fallon was sweet on the filly who won the nell gwynn, and he's quite close to the godolphin set-up i think. He tipped her up before the race as well.

think godolphin have better fire power in the opening classics that they have for years although we've seen this before and they've been run over by the ballymore juggernaut, be interesting to see if it's any different this time.

I have been waiting for this day since 27th August 2017, when SAXON WARRIOR cruised his way from first to last in a maiden race, to win with the jockey standing up in the saddle trying to get the colt to slow up.

Loads of posts from me on here, since August with the perfect race being the 2000 Guineas, given his pace c/w majority assessment that he is a Derby colt.

I've never watched Race Replays as mush as I have Saxon Warriors 3 runs.

Happy with jockey booking, as he rides each day, and on his debut win.

Absolutely hoping for the best, safe passage in the race, no hard luck story and the best colt wins.

Good luck SW.

deepingfox
I have been waiting for this day since 27th August 2017, when SAXON WARRIOR cruised his way from first to last in a maiden race, to win with the jockey standing up in the saddle trying to get the colt to slow up.

We are unable to offer you the position of out "comments in running" writer.
Many thanks for your application. 

Headway at 35 and Nebo at 170 for me for an interest.
Gustav Klimt, Saxon Warrior, Elarqam not typical 2000 Guineas form.
Masar ran well in the Breeders Cup and again in his prep race.  If he repeats that he will go close.

For the sake of it I will back James Garfield . He might have been unlucky at Del Mar and Invincible Army did his form no harm .

Gustav Klimt: unexposed, race fit horse whose time at Leopardstown might just be very good - certainly compared with the fillies. Assuming O'Brien's pair ran up to their 2yo form, his time makes him the equal of anything the others have shown on my clock - but of course I can't be sure about it. It's just possible Imaging is a group 1-ish horse on soft ground, as Weld was talking in terms of the Irish Guineas. Klimt beat him with some ease. On the other hand, Imaging may have done too much too soon that day and been a sitting duck, or he might not be that good. Since it's impossible to gauge this horse's form on conventional ratings, due to what happened in the Superlative (was he outpaced by plodders initially, hence his need for a Houdini act?), and the uncertainty about Imaging, we're guessing. It might be significant that Kenya, back in third, for whom there was money on the day, finished so far back. This is the problem with the Guineas for me - not quite enough information, whereas I always feel I can make a confident shout about the Derby - regardless of how the race pans out. He could just be a very good group 2 horse.

Saxon Warrior: interesting to see how the market goes late on. I can't believe they would be bringing him here unless confident he was fit enough and quick enough to be there or thereabouts. I usually pour scorn on 8f 2yo horses, RP winners etc as Guineas types, but this colt might be different. He chucked aside solid group 2/3 horses in the Beresford, leading 2 out, and dominated what looked a very good renewal of the RP, leading there 2 out as well. It did look as if Roaring Lion had more basic speed, but that colt had already been tested against better opposition and when Saxon got the message he did battle back well, in what I made a well above average time, well up to average Guineas winning standard. He also has more scope for improvement than most after just 3 starts. I make him the class horse in the race so the question is how suited he will be to the Guineas mile on good ground, and my fairly cursory look at Deep Impact's top ten progeny found two colts with form at the distance. The dam side is stained by horses who didn't seem to train on, and O'Brien clearly doesn't always know if his horses have done so (Air Force Blue etc). I suspect he will run an Australia-type race, which would be good enough to win most renewals. He might be one of those cases of the shorter he gets in the betting pre-race, the more value he becomes, as the lads pile on, but ultimately, there is a question that needs answering, which wasn't the case for me with Gleneagles or Churchill.

Elarqam: I didn't like the first few furlongs of his group 3 win. He looked ungainly, green, and had clearly been sweating badly pre-race. I would have liked to have seen him in a trial, settling behind horses. I suspect he's as talented a runner as anything here but is he a racer yet? That's perhaps the most under-rated thing about O'Brien's horses - they hardly ever fail to settle. A big step up required but a colt of this type could easily make a stone or more progress between 2nd and 3rd start, and this might be run to suit prominent horses. O'Brien doesn't seem to have the tactical options of last year. Niggling doubts about this horse, compounded by connections apparent conviction he wants further. I think settling, not speed, will be the issue. I suspect the aforementioned pair will be more streetwise.

Masar: the most likely of the front four to run to an average Guineas winning standard but I can't help feeling at least one of the other 3 will improve past him. However, with few obvious front runners and a draw on the stands' rail, he could well get the run of it. Any tailwind would be even better for him. I just feel something will do him for class/speed in the end.

Of the outsiders, there were 2 I found interesting enough last weekend to back at big prices to small stakes (my only bets so far): Headway and Raid. Both are by Havana Gold, who won over a mile at 2 and won the Jean Prat at 3, yet both had the speed to win at 6f at 2. I have always liked the COventry as a Guineas trial for non sprint bred horses, and Headway might just find today's conditions up his street, although since the decs I have started to think this won't be a fiercely run Guineas suiting a Makfi type ride. Thus my very slight interest in Raid has faded slightly, as I felt he might just be buried out the back and come late past tiring horses. His unexposed profile has something of Night of Thunder and Makfi about it, and he's an interesting runner.

I can't have Expert Eye. I think he won a slowly run Vintage by dint of superior speed. The fact he was so short for the Dewhurst remains notable, but I hate sprint- bred horses for the Guineas. Not even Kingman managed it.

1. Saxon Warrior
2. Gustav Klimt
3. Masar / Elarqam / Raid dead heat....

no I understand the concept of ante-post betting, but to me where it doesn't pay is when you get over confident and put too much on.

from my own experience you get a much better feeling of what's going to happen say on the week or even the day of the race/ football match/ golf tournament.

the idea that you can be that confident when it's something that's months in advance, and you can't even be sure that they are going to be there, seems bonkers to me.

I notice a lot of people on here and other forums have been bullish on september for the oaks ("I've been backing here every day since september, etc") but when you look at it she's on the small side, there's all these unexposed/unraced fillies yet to come out, I mean how on earth can she be some banker bet?

I can't have Expert Eye. I think he won a slowly run Vintage by dint of superior speed

surprised you had expert eye's goodwood race as slowly run, i thought they went a nice even gallop and he just sauntered into it and his final time was decent

I can see where Howellsy is coming from about the Vintage not seeming to be run quick, as using one going allowance for the whole Goodwood card would result in a moderate time for the race. However I agree with Harry that it was in fact a really decent time performance. Everything else about that race tells me that it was well run and in my view using one going allowance for the whole card in this instance gives a bum steer.

You're right, guys, I shouldn't have said it was a slowly run Vintage - I think what I meant was that it was a cheap figure, the last furlong under no pressure and some of the horses in behind such as James Garfield, not running up to their best times so clearly under-performing. If he proves to be a miler then, yes, I could see why he might win this today, but he's got a lot to prove for me even at the prices.

Expert Eye no confidence in the market and nowhere near good enough. Well done to Saxon Warrior backers, particularly deepingfox who I remember saying SW was a possible Guineas winner early on, you saw something I couldn't. The time/performance looks a few pounds below an average Guineas but still very good for a horse that should be suited to the Derby trip.

Well done deepingfox - great shout. Shame antepost betting is only for mugs.

Elarqam ran like I expected, as if it was just a bit too much too soon but if he comes out of it sound (be did take a false step about 1 1/2f out) then the Irish Guineas at the Curragh or the St James Palace should suit him really well and I'll be looking to load up on him. Can't see him being a Derby horse as he won't handle Epsom.

Hopefully it all bodes well for the duaghter of Deep Impact in the Oaks.

Fashion Fever, not sure if it was Vincent O'Brien who once said if they're fast enough they'll be ok with the Epsom track, but whoever it was it's something I've always believed in. I think some horses win the Guineas without really improving from 2 to 3 and then there's a danger they'll go backwards, but by my early reckoning I'd say Roaring Lion ran pretty much to his best and SW has improved around 6lbs. For me, the only thing that would stop him being very hard to beat at Epsom would be if the Guineas takes a lot out of him.

Many thanks Figgis, and Uncle, for the kind comments.

I love Ante Post punting, as Ive spent a lifetime watching live and on tv and replays, especially 2yo maiden races with a view to classics.

I knew as soon as I watched Saxon Warrior win live on ATR that this horse was my 2000 Guineas bet.

I've never felt like that before, and as soon as the prices came out the day after his debut at 33s (Paddy Power) and 25/1 (Stan James)  I took them, and again at 20/1 and 16/1.

This is not in my nature, usually one bet is plenty at long odds.

I've argued he was a Guineas horse from the outset, and I cannot express my delight to see the race run and won today.

I will probably never have this feeling again, and it work out to well, but to have it once, and get it right will be something that I never forget.

Que?