Horse Antepost
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A most impressive win by Sir Michael Stoute's Expert Eye in today's Gr.2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, probably the best two-year-old performance so far this season. He was always travelling strongly off a fairly modest pace, cruised into the lead and quickly sprinted clear to win by 4½ lengths. It looked a reasonably good class event (the runner-up and fourth were officially rated 101 and 99 respectively beforehand), although the winning time was nothing special. This performance entitles him to an official rating of at least 110 after just two starts, he certainly looks a Group 1 performer in the making, and his breeding (by Acclamation out of a half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty) gives him a good chance of staying a mile. He has loads of speed and looks a nice well-balanced individual. I would have been interested in backing him for the Guineas at around 12/1 or 10/1, but 5/1 (6/1 in a place) is simply too short a price.
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I made it a good time Jamesp. Very little to find fault with for me but as has been said somewhere else, the pedigree doesn't guarantee Guineas stamina.
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Wow. Watched SAXON WARRIOR's debut last to first win, over and over again. Checked through breeding, and could be Guineas and Derby type on that. However looking at the burst of speed to sweep through with jockeys hands more than full at the end imo he is defo the type for Group 1 2yo 1 mile races plus a Newmarket 2000 Guineas run. Possibly Beresford then Racing Post Trophy at season end.
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Certainly looked good - might find a mile a touch sharp next year?
One that took my eye is Eqtidaar of Michael Stoutes. Very impressive on debut at Nottingham. and a half brother to Massaat who finished 2nd in the Guineas. Possible he might be more a Middke Park / Commonwealth Cup type |
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Might not have beat much but Saxon Warrior looks a real beast. By Deep Impact would expect it to be more of a Derby horse.
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Thank You PaddyPants and Betfair for the 33/1 SAXON WARRIOR for the 2000 Guineas. None of the more established Ballydoyle colts put up a debut close to that, and he was only just ready for a run. More than happy with that price. Roll on The Beresford Stakes. This could be one of the Coolmore colts that takes in Guineas and then the Derby. Plenty of those down the years.
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Looked a big imposing colt. Travelled extremely well and did it all very smoothly. The time was nothing special but can't hold that against him in a maiden on debut. Only negative for me is this is a yard that usually knows when they've got something Guineas worthy, or at least something they think is Guineas worthy. Don't think many of their Guineas types started as big as 8/1 on debut. Always a first time I suppose and he might have passed under the radar but probably more a Derby type I'd think.
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I think the stable use maiden races and debuts in a much fifferent way now. They have an unbelievable depth of quality in the breeding of broodmares that sometimes there are two or three bred to be classic winners all in the same maiden, and particularly on debut they let the race sort them into order. This is mow a far cry from getting them hardened to win FTO. Its invigorating to watch, and its best to judge with your eyes rather than anything else. Each of us has thst as our USP for making our selections. Im probably wrong to think 2000 Guineas, but at 33s Im happy with the risk/reward.
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Saxon Warrior lasted all of 24 hours at 33/1. Now best at 20s for 2000 Guineas. He has better Debut RPR rating than all rivals left above him in the betting. The all important second run, and foray into a group race will tell us where he fits into the mix..
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Saxon Warrior looks a Derby horse, still some 20/1 available after the Beresford win.
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Still 20/1 for 20000 Guineas. Which is very generous, given Aidan's interview when he indicated Ryan Moore impression on his ability to travel well, and pick up. Went in again, on top of the 33/1 after debut win. For me the Derby is a waste of time bet at the moment. Can see him being a Camelot type. Maybe Racing Post Trophy, defo Newmarket 2000 Guineas, and then possibly The Epsom Derby. The only interest in Derby betting for me would be to double up with 2000 Guineas if the odds were 50s or more.
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20/1 all gone for the Derby, 12/1 best now.
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He defintiely travelled well and has a good change of gear so the Guineas might well be possible.
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10/1 for Derby now, into 16/1 for The Guineas.
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We should find out today if Expert Eye is the real deal or not. As impressive as his Goodwood win was, I have it a good few pounds short of Guineas winning class. He did do it comfortably though and maybe he can show even more today. The general opinion about Emaraaty seems to be that he's priced up more on potential than form but I actually have him as the second fastest horse in the race. He may have only won a maiden but I rate that better than the Group form of some of the opposition. I have him with 9lbs to find on Expert Eye but the way he won his maiden I certainly wouldn't rule that out. If Expert Eye runs to form I'll be surprised if any of the others could mount a serious challenge.
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Fast time from the winner and possibly he's improved but compared to the earlier times it was nothing special and looks like he probably just ran up to previous form. Expert Eye ran a shocker. I remember runners like Grand Lodge and King's Best putting in a poor one as 2yos so a bit early to write him off but a lot to prove now. Emaraaty was disappointing too. The winner quoted at 5's for the Guineas
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Clearly a massive 'golden highway' on the stands rail so I'd be very careful with this meetings form.
Such a shame so many top races are decided by the draw. Expert Eye and Emaraaty were too bad to be true but both look highly strung and unlikely to be classic contenders next year, though maybe first time out might be there best opportunity. |
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U S Navy Flag was impressive in the Dewhurst today but is he AOB's number 1 2000G hope? Unlikely I'd have thought given Gustav Klimt would have contested the National Stakes - previous winners were Churchill, Air Force Blue and Gleneagles - if he had not suffered a bruise foot; Expert Eye ran too freely too early today; the rest were much of a muchness, and the form of the runner-up Mendelssohn is nothing special. There was a ground bias for the rails too.
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SAXON WARRIOR and THE PENTAGON mentioned by AOB as likely Racing Post Trophy runners a week or so back. My wallet is hopjng Ryan Moore is with Saxon Warrior, if both run. Given his Beresford Stakes Group 2 win boosted mightily by the 4th and 5th bolting up in Listed races since (Kew Gardens today), I remain convinced he is the AOB 2000 Guineas number 1 in waiting. Gustav Klimt drifting with 2 bigger bookies out to 12s for Newmarket even before the Dewhurst today. 2 weeks and we may get the answer at Donny.
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Paddies and forum owner are one of the same entity thus Gustav Klimt is 12/1 both, others as short as 6/1; AOB has just revealed Gustav Klimt has suffered a season-ending injury ie a slight torn muscle, but will be trained for the 2000G; I think U S Navy Flag is more suited to America given his pace similar to Lancaster Bomber.
I believe Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon are both middle distance horses. |
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Racing Post Trophy decs come out on Monday. AOB nominates The Pentagon and Saxon Warrior as prime candidates, which confirms his thoughts from a couple of weeks ago - along with other runners- as he seeks to break the group 1 season record of 25. Ryan Moore on Saxon Warrior please.
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I'd be really surprised if Coolmore pitched them against each other, though I guess the obssession with beating the Group 1 record may sway them.
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I think the days are over, when Coolmore horses avoid each other. The mentality is to win races, and multiple darts to hit the bullseye, US Navy Flag type wins justifies the rationale. Plus they have so many more good horses than anyone has ever had before, that there aren't enough group races to avoid multiple top horses taking each other on. It's so refreshing to see, c/w the past. I think it's a cert that Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon will clash, unless some injury befalls them before Saturday. Plus two or three of the others, in case the fans run poorly, or get a poor run of the race.
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'Favs' not fans.
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It would be a bold call and make for a fascinating race (which one will Moore pick?) but I still expect one of the two favs to miss it.
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I would expect Moore to ride Saxon Warrior. He looks the better prospect to me and could go quite short for the Derby if he wins this impressively.
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"Dreamland" -------------- Moore on SAXON WARRIOR, AOB will probably have 4 in there, some pace setters, with The Pentagon handy and Saxon Warrior happy to go the quick pace, and get the Brits off the bridle with 2 to go. Verbal Dexterity to threaten at the furlong pole, battling with The Pentagon, but Saxon Warrior motors by on the outside to win comfortably by 2&1/2 lengths. I've been dreaming of the Racing Post Trophy for Saxon Warrior for a month since the Beresford Stakes, and for him to go to the head of the 2000 Guineas market.-----------"Reality beckons"
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The Coolmore pair are priced up on potential rather than form. Saxon Warrior looks the least exposed of the two but for me he has plenty to prove he's a classic contender. He wasn't strongly fancied on debut and that maiden was quite weak. It seems to be the visual impression of him coming from behind to win that got people's interest, but I don't think he had to show much to win that race. I'm keeping an open mind about him but I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't up to the task. Strictly on form Verbal Dexterity has run a stone better than O'Brien's two.
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Betting ante post on the classics is all about seeing potential before the rest of the market. If you wait for them to prove it on the track then the big prices have long gone.
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I don't mean that as a criticism, I should add I am aware you are referring to the prices on Saturday.
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Yes fair point. He was 33/1 for the Guineas and now 16/1 so anyone in the business of trading is already in a comfortable position. For me though he still hasn't done anything to suggest he's better than a 33/1 chance.
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I wouldn't back him for the Guineas, they might decide to go for a Derby trial instead as he's going to be a middle distance horse rather than a miler.
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Had a small bet on Verbal Dexterity for today's race. I said he'd run a stone better but that was a slight exaggeration and I have him 11lbs ahead of Saxon Warrior. Saxon Warrior may be capable of better and if he can beat an on form VD he'd be a good thing for next year's Derby. The doubt with VD is although last time out he ran a figure good enough to take an average running of this it looked tough work for him to do so and I'm not sure if he's capable of a repeat, hence the small bet.
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Saxon Warrior looks like a very good horse to me and expect him to win here
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If forced to have a bet I too would go for Verbal D as he was able to go with Beckford up to 6f yet stayed on powerfully in the manner of a colt who should get today's 8. However, I couldn't give the performance much of a speed figure, I don't like his draw and it's not a race I have ever much liked as a betting medium. However, whereas it makes total sense for O'Brien to chuck everything at the race to get his record, it makes very little sense for Bolger to bring VDEx here unless he's very confident, as he's already won a group 1 which is at least as prestigious.
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He has shown some class there to battle back having been headed and hampered.
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VD never travelling from the off, surprised he even got into contention the way he was being ridden early. Saxon Warrior did it okay enough, looked like he was going to win easy for most of the race, but I'm inclined to agree with Matt Chapman on this one that Roaring Lion dogged it.
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Not sure who ran the better Derby trial - Saxon Warrior or The Pentagon.
The Pentagon has St Leger written all over him that's for sure. |
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Only an early comparison but the time looks fairly ordinary for the class. I'd say if next year's Derby is only at the level of this year's then he'll go close to winning, but he'll need to improve if there are any good horses around. Hard to see him figuring in the Guineas unless him travelling so well early on was an indication that he could've gone faster, but not for me.
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That was his first proper race. I don't think we'll see the best of him until next year over 10 furlongs plus. He's a fine looking horse with a lovely stride with hopefully plenty of improvement to come.
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