woopsy sacred life , well what a duck egg hes still a 2yo , zero scope . very hard to believe he can do anything now . on the plus side hes gonna be well balanced , fit and appreciate better ground , but , thats grabbing for a twig as i fall off the cliff !

Decent start for GV - not scintillating by any means but should improve a lot so I’m surprised he is still 6/1 given his connections.
I personally think the market vibes over the last month or so suggest Saxon Warrior won’t turn up, though either way Ryan Moore looks sure to in Kentucky.

Considering the tacky ground which was far from ideal Gustav Klimt (GK) managed to quicken up for a cosy win going away. Only 6 (here) now from 10 and jfav with Saxon Warrior (SW) with most bookies; SW, Elarqam and Expert Eye (EE) are going straight to this race but Roaring Lion is running in the Craven next thursday at Newmarket.

About the only horse who is strong in the market is Roaring Lion - he's already 4/7 for the Craven so unless he wins incredibly impressively I'm not sure it will tell us a whole lot.
I'd have expected one of GK or SW to be much shorter but as has been suggested Ballydoyle don't really confident about either of them.

You would have thought all this uncertainty would mean the opposition would be shortening but Expert Eye and Elarqaam were both very easy to back at thr weekend (matched at around 13/1).
Then you have Bolgers Verbal Dexterity at 20 and basically 50/1 bar. Jim Bolger is adamant that the horse was massively below par in the Racing Post (still only beaten 4l) and has reported the horse in good health and on course for Newmarket so given his good record I have had a bit of 20 as a cover for my many Elaarqam bets.

verbal dexterity showed a good attitude , my worry would be the high head carriage . knowing what i do now regarding the coolmore clan (kentucky) he looks like the no.1 danger to rl

ok i think this enigma has unravelled itself .

If you're a Roaring Lion backer you would hope he does not leave the Guineas behind today like Kingman did after a big effort in his trial. That said, you could probably argue James Doyle kicked for home too soon on Kingman and he was an unlucky loser.

It really is about time Gosden won the Guineas. For a trainer of his success it's a surprise he's not had a few winners.

I usually disregard the Craven winner at a stroke, but Masar deserves serious consideration, as the market now implies, despite a profile which would surely be unique amongst Guineas winners in having been beaten twice by fillies. His bizarre career began with a hugely creditable win over 6f at Goodwood. With so many sprinting sires around, it is becoming increasingly rare for any half decent 6f maiden to be won by a miling or staying sire, and this was a good maiden in which the group class Invincible Army was second. It was disappointing he got beaten at Ascot but both fillies were receiving 5lbs and both went on to prove themselves group 2 fillies, so perhaps he can be forgiven that defeat. Fwiw, he earned the same rpr as Churchill in the same race, second start both. Masar's Sandown win after a break was unspectacular and the time was ordinary for a colt on 3rd start. It's hard to take an especially positive view of the form, but he was now 2/3 and progressive. A month later, he produced a battling performance in a group 1, a stirring duel with Olmedo ending with both being passed by Happily, another filly. My ratings aren't so good on French races but the rprs said it was another step forward, although again you would have expected a Guineas winner to have got the better of Olmedo, as 2 other colts have, even if we allow that they set it up for Happily who picked up the pieces late on. The two runs in foreign lands represented very strange placing of a potential Guineas candidate. If you can ignore those, then this colt has a not dissimilar profile to Galileo Gold - there or thereabouts at 2 without looking exceptional, placed in France. We then have his Craven romp, which was an improved time performance and on my watch just about good enough to be on the premises in an average or slowly run Guineas. I made it a similar time to Churchill and Galileo Gold, and only Saxon Warrior (and Roaring Lion) of his apparent rivals in the market have beaten it, in my view, on the clock, in the RP trophy.
So is there any reason why the Craven winner can't win the Guineas? Of course not. Haafhd did it, and Delegator travelled with the class of a GUineas winner before finding Sea The Stars too strong up the hill. Most Craven winners are already exposed as not quite good enough, or, like Eminent, still shy of group 1 conditioning. Masar has all the experience, the seasoning and the undoubted fitness and well being to be a serious candidate. In a normal year I'd be saying he wasn't quite good enough, but this year nothing has stated a better case so far with the possible exception of Gustav Klimt. My one issue with Masar is that he will have to track other horses in the Guineas, as trying to lead the Ballydoyle pacemakers will be suicidal. He will therefore have to settle, but it it not as if he has always led.
Finally, at the risk of sounding like Mordin used to, horses in the top 6 of the market who have won at 6f at 2 and are by genuine miling (or further) sires had around a 50% strike rate last I looked.
In conclusion, Masar has done enough to suggest to me that he will be in the first 3 in the Guineas. Hopefully others will join me in discussing the claims of his rivals in subsequent posts.

Yes uncle, Gustav Klimt is an interesting one as I'm not by any means sure he's always been top of O'Brien's list. In July he went for the Superlative (not a race he's thrown his best horses at over the years), whereas The Pentagon went for the Tyros, which has usually been the race of choice for the top dog. Klimt won it in the style of a real fighter with a will to win, although it may be that he was the architect of his own trouble, as he was possibly tapped for toe as they quickened, which at the time made me doubt his Guineas credentials as they were hardly top notchers in opposition, but I have to say I was impressed with the way he prepped last week, settling nicely in the rear and picking up a race fit, group-class soft ground horse, Imaging, in good style with plenty to spare. With four starts behind him, and now race fit, I agree he must have more improvement in him than Masar.

Without doubt, the sexiest candidate is Elarqam, on pedigree, and on the basis of being unbeaten after 2 starts, the second of which was a group 3 which he won comfortably, the form solid enough, and the time for me well above average for a colt on 2nd start (2 lbs below Masar's Craven). My worry about the horse is that he seems under-seasoned for the Guineas. His running style looked a bit ungainly to me lto, very sweaty and the type who might be keen if held up in behind. He was strong up the hill, though, and if he has made significant improvement and has had a good Spring he will be right up there if amenable to restraint early on. Very exciting colt.

I've not had any bets on the classics so far as I'm only now getting into it again after a busy time.

in the 1980s my dad used to tell me a lot of horses didnt train on from 2 to 3 . this has never been a factor in my analysis until this year , i do feel saxon wont even go , lion looks like hes gonna go to chantilly , sacred life a runt . i,ve done my 100 squid on this i reckon . i not bitter ,but , i cant have another pound till race day . acey you,ve got a lot of input on this thread howellsy in particular . i hope it gives you some faith in the forum and best of luck

Uncle Puncle - "As well as looking exactly like Haafhd his form is similar. Haafhd was also beaten on his final two starts as a 2yo"

Good luck with Elarqam!   I am not on but I hope he wins.  I hope he proves as good as Haafhd, even though he looks nothing like him

Gustav Klimt : O.K if your on @ fancy prices but hes a shocking price @ present on what hes achieved to date. We know how much Aidens can come on for a run but he was hardly impressive on his comeback.
Saxon Warrior for me .But i will wait till raceday 4 obvious reasons

Without Parole has been scratched from the race!

Us Navy Flag?Hey Gaman? Without Parole  NRS

Not happy with the draw for Elarqam or Masar. Hate it that Newmarket have the stalls on the stands side as it gives the rail runners a huge advantage when the cutaway finishes at the 2f mark - just watch last years race and all of last years back end group races - golden highway up the rail.

They used to have the stalls in the middle (Sea The Stars, Frankel etc) - why did they change it?

any rain fall last night or any due today.

thanks Kin.

All the vibes seem bad for SW. However I think if he's anywhere near straight he'll take a good deal of beating. Nice draw and I think he could bully this field. Price of the fav is horrendous.

Think both Gustav & Happily have found themselves favourite for the guineas literally by defaul, through injuries to Clemmie and other like Veraciously missing, then Gustav because SW is carrying a load of condition. Gustav won a Listed race on heavy lto and is 5/2. He should be 5/1.

the master has returned! agree with all of that.

what's your fancy for the 1000 mate?