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Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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I honestly believe the Epsom Derby would come too early for CoM; why rush an inexperience, work-in-progress and promising horse
when there are others in the stable capable of fulfulling the role eg Churchill, unless it is soft or worse? US Army Ranger was rushed last year, and he's paying the price for it now. Would Churchill have a better chance of winning the Derby than CoM if he runs? Absolutely,...if he stays, and all things being equal; if it is clear Churchill is not going to win let him come home in his own time and save him for the St James's Palace Stakes. Would CoM have the same chance as Churchill of winning the Derby if Churchill does not run? Absolutely not, in my opinion, why? CoM is a work-in-progress horse judging from his Chester run. If BoP runs in the Derby I'd certainly back him and Cracksman over CoM for the aforementioned reasons. |
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Would Churchill have a better chance of winning the Derby than CoM if he runs? Absolutely
if he stays Not quite absolutely then  |
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ffs I think the one think Cliffs lacks is speed. On rain softened ground at Chester he took ages to quicken having his head shoved off in the process. The Bay of Poets form lacks how much Cracksman was inconvenienced by a slow pace at Epsom and how ready he was for only his 2nd race. The 'cutting' you referred suggests JG did not have him as forward as he wanted. In fact he also thought he would get beaten but still he won and looked like he could have won a good deal further than he did. I'm not sure what circumstances you think would have made Cliffs look better with the 4th horse finishing stronger than he did. Cracksman also showed the one thing Cliffs didn't and that was an ability to quicken on fast ground.
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In the final furlong at Chester no horse was actually quickening. In fact it's rare for any horse to quicken in the final furlong of a race. Cliffs of Moher was actually quickening when the leader increased the tempo some way from home. The trouble was they'd gone so slow up to that point that most of them were able to quicken at the same time so the leader had the advantage. Mirage Dancer just stayed on when the others had run their race. Likewise Cracksman wasn't quickening when he got up in the final stride, he was slowing down, just not quite as much as the leader.
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Brigust,
Without spelling it all out I'll tell you the honest truth as succinctly as possible - Cliffs looks the better racehorse, more natural speed and balance. I could elaborate but I'll save you. That said, I have never hidden my liking for Cracksman either and if he's the Derby winner it'll be no surprise to me. |
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I123, I don't know if you're trolling but look at Ruler of the World:
07Apr13 Cur 3yMd 9K 1m2f Gd 9-5 1/11 by ¾L Manalapan 9-5 (FTO) 09May13 Chs C13yG3 34K 1m4½f Gd 8-12 p 1/4 by 6L Mister Impatience 8-12 01Jun13 Eps C13yG1 782K 1m4f Gd 9-0 p 1/12 by 1½L Libertarian |
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ffs we will have to agree to disagree.
Cliffs won his maiden on yielding ground by leading after a furlong and making the rest. He was probably flattered by the distance he won by because his stable companion who was having his first run in 5 months compared with Cliffs having run 2 weeks beforehand was given what looks like a tender ride and was never put into the race. At Chester on rain softened ground he was having his head shoved off just to keep in touch. If you think he has ever shown speed you must be watching a different horse to me. |
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Seems a strange concept of speed going on here. If a horse makes all the running and puts distance between himself and the opposition and wins in a relatively good time he has shown plenty of speed as far as I'm concerned. Speed isn't all about being played for a late run.
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That is true Figgis in the overall scheme of things but having the ability to quicken to get a position, get out of trouble etc are important in a race. If Cliffs is ridden prominently or leads then he will reduce those risks and I think that will be his best chance of success. If he gets in a bad position or boxed in I think he hasn't the natural basic speed to get out of trouble quickly. If there are a lot of runners in the Derby and the ground is fast I think he will struggle.
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At Chester while he was having his head shoved off none of his competitors took advantage, they waited with him or behind him until he got into top gear. He was going flat out and they were sitting on the bridle. Bay of Poets was waiting until the straight to challenge and Mirage Dancer was blocked on the rail. He may not get those luxuries on faster ground at Epsom.
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I'd rather a horse that gets shuffled along and finds than a bridle ponce that finds nothing.
if cracksman doesn't deliver at York could COM become the forum cliff horse? |
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If he gets in a bad position or boxed in I think he hasn't the natural basic speed to get out of trouble quickly
Maybe if the pace is slow again he might struggle, but then even seriously good horses are up against it in those circumstances. That one race at Chester can't be used to refute him having any natural speed. It was falsely run so not necessarily a true reflection. Lots of horses can run a similar pace for a few furlongs off a slow pace. It's a fast pace that sorts the wheat from the chaff. Sure, there are real superstars who can run so quick over a short distance that they can still easily concede a start off a slow pace, but not too many middle distance runners fall into that category. I admit I don't know for sure if Cliffs of Moher will perform more impressively when he's in a faster run race. Possibly he's not really gone on from last year or possibly I've seriously overrated his maiden win. I'm prepared to accept that this could turn out to be the case. However, at this the fact that his latest race was falsely run is a plausible excuse for the underwhelming victory. He did show some speed, it was just masked as the others were able to do similar off slow fractions. |
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* at this stage
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Can see this scenario playing out:
dante turns into a bunched finish and nothing impresses. all the talk then is of Churchill going for the derby as no impressive winner of the trial. however he's joined in the race by COM and VB as even "the boys" don't know if he'll stay or not. On the week of the race all the money is for COM. it's a huge gamble and as the race goes off he's clear fav. Churchill doesn't stay and COM romps home a hugely impressive winner that's the plan anyway |
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I'm not saying COM cannot win I am just saying I think, from what he has shown so far, his chances will be better if he is ridden prominently or leads. That's all. I am not offering an imaginary hypothesis based upon what I think he may be able to do. Apparently, he is held in high regard and I think there will be a few non stayers running. The sort of horses will be wise to be in front of. I think he will be better served by cut in the ground. And I worry that his form raises questions about him being good enough.
As far as Cracksman is concerned I have no worries about him running the usual sit in behind and finish type of race and I have no worries about him making the running or running on fast ground. JG obviosly holds him in some regard but I too have worries about him being good enough. |
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I also wonder how much of the COM decision is based on his trainer. How many are looking at his other runners like Venice Beach etc and making comparisons thinking he is obviously better thought of than a, b, or c. so I will overlook the form of the race or the manner in which he won it because AOB has loads of horses and good record in the race. Would he be vying for favouritism if he was trained by someone else?
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Possibly he's not really gone on from last year or possibly I've seriously overrated his maiden win or he was just ready to start at Chester, but that maiden win was easily as good as a G3, or higher, as he left Pipes of Peace 13L back (previously 3L back in G3 Killavullan) and obv 5.5L back to OOTG winner of the 2000 Trial
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@ Brigust, Figgis,
There's also the difference between 'dead' yielding ground - like at Leopardstown, which some good horses can race perfectly on, and the loose G/S ground that they ran at Chester - no good horse can excel on that |
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Actually a similar thing happened with US Army Ranger at Chester last year. He struggled to hold off his stablemate who was conceding weight while given a pretty easy ride. Not the most impressive of wins and on that form he seemed unlikely to have a serious chance at Epsom. Just like here though the race was falsely run and his stablemate was flattered to run him so close. Okay he didn't win at Epsom and it was just an ordinary renewal but he went quite close and did show improved form from Chester. I backed him for the Derby after his trial, partly because of his home reputation but mainly because I was sure he could run faster than he did at Chester, although I wasn't sure quite how fast so it wasn't what I'd call a big bet.
It's different with CoM as I think I have a better handle on him because of what he did last year. I already rate him ahead of US Army Ranger and close to Harzand. If it turns out to be no more than an average renewal, as it looks at the moment, I think he can win. Maybe he can improve even more and put up a better than average performance but I'm not banking on that. Obviously my confidence has taken a slight knock after the Dee Stakes, as even with a plausible excuse you can never really be sure if it's completely valid. There's also the possibility there's a potential improver lurking who is capable of putting up a well above average performance in the race, maybe we'll find one in the Dante. |
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yes - his run last year showed real speed, however you want to define that. Physically he looked to grown at Chester also, so I don't think he flat-lined, AO'B did say "He's only just ready to get back bu if we're going to get him to the Derby then he has to run"
For those who don't know the full story of this horse - not only did he run the 7f 3secs faster than the fillies maiden the previous race, but he was 1sec faster than the 7f race which had Sovereign Debt (Lockinge 2nd) and Blue de Vega (Irish 2000 3rd) getting 2lbs and off level weights with the latter. So, however you define speed that was fast |
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Can see this scenario playing out
LR, who would you expect Moore to ride in that scenario? |
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I just never thought he'd come into the Derby contention ... but here we are.
Happy Punting, Gents. |
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As far as Cracksman is concerned I have no worries about him running the usual sit in behind and finish type of race and I have no worries about him making the running or running on fast ground.
Brigust I would be concerned about Cracksman on ground faster than good with regards to his high knee-action and exaggerated deviation of his forelegs. |
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That's fair Figgis. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they saved COM for the Irish Derby. He is more likely to get his ground and demands on stamina.
ffs I guess my idea of natural speed and the ability to get from a to b fast, are different from yours. So would I Madhu. I think I brought it up on an earlier post. I am more worried about his ability though. |
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Some of these runners are still very lightly raced so you can never be sure how much they'll improve in a short space of time, especially when tackling the longer trip for the first time in what ought to be a fast run race. Just look at Gosden's Enable for the Oaks, comfortably beaten by her stable companion Shutter Speed but improved right past her less than three weeks later, well in my opinion she has anyway. It will be interesting to see if Shutter Speed can show similar improvement, personally I doubt it.
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That is so right Figgis, year on year a young horse at this time of the season especially can be a different horse 3 months later.
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Madhu, looking back at runners that have finished in the frame down the years I don't think you can confidently rule anything out. Quite a few have showed a huge leap in form and made the frame that I certainly didn't fancy. I think some runners end up giving the performance of their career in the race, running out of their skin, never able to quite match it afterwards.
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ffs..."I123, I don't know if you're trolling but look at Ruler Of The World."
Horse Racing is mainly about opinions, and I'm doing nothing but offering mine, similarly you; I'm not trolling either,..nothing to gain on a forum like this one; you either concur or do not, nothing personal intended. I'd back up my opinions with a side bet with you, the beneficiary is a local charity of your choice eg:- 1) CoM will be scratched from the Epsom Derby because of the participation of Churchill; inexperience; immaturity, and still a horse-in-progress. 2) should CoM run, either Cracksmans, Yucatan, Mirage Dancer and Churchill (runs/not soft ground) will finish infront of him Are you game????????? |
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ffs...The stake/price is £50 to a local charity of your choice.
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Figgis
14 May 17 23:53 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 6,547 | Blogger: Figgis's blog Can see this scenario playing out LR, who would you expect Moore to ride in that scenario? I was messing about a bit mate, anyway the COM form wasn't exactly boosted by order of the garter yesterday. As things stand he'll ride Churchill if he runs. He's already said as much. Btw earlier you said that Cracksman was slowing down at Epsom, but I had him running the last two furlongs in roughly over 21 seconds, that seems like sprinter pace to me. Another one who I think enters the picture is this crystal ocean, trainer is the master of the derby. Ok maybe he hasn't won it as often as O'Brien in the last few years but hasn't had anything like the same number of runners. When he has one good enough to go the dante/derby route they either win, or hit the post like tartan bearer. |
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another thing I would like to see is that a stable can only run a certain number of runners, would improve the race if you didn't get half the field trained by one person.
besides I don't see the point of O'Brien running Yucatan, capri, douglas. They won't win. If you don't run Churchill then COM and VB are good enough contenders in their own right, you don't need anyone else. |
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@lewisham ranger - to be fair crystal ocean has been really well found on here over the last few days. The price has been absolutely crushed. The dante will obviously tell us more, the form of crystal ocean's maiden win is for me is a bit mixed, okool has won a maiden since but he was well beaten by both Eminent over 1m and Glencamden Glory in maidens before that. Katmandoo was 5th in the maiden won by CO but was hammered by Never Surrender at Chester last week. The good thing with all of this is there are quite a lot of interlinked form lines.
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Yeah maybe the cat is out of the bag and maybe the form isn't great.
Didn't realize gosden was going for three in a row in the Dante. That makes cracksman quite interesting especially when you think about the sectionals he posted at Epsom  |
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Yes - certainly the Dante will slim the field down, be particularly interesting if Rekindling turns up, one Gosden, one stoute, one o'brien jnr and then one o'brien horse is he runs Exempler. Looks a very interesting race even in itself.
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anyway the COM form wasn't exactly boosted by order of the garter yesterday
Even on my high rating of CoM's maiden I wouldn't have touched Order of the Garter in a one mile classic, was a good 20lbs short of winning even a poor one. He ran even below that yesterday but not the first time a horse has run below par after being up with the pace against horses above his class. I just meant in the scenario that Coolmore did decide to run Churchill. Until looking back I'd totally forgotten that Kinane switched from King of Kings and Eddery had the ride. |
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Awful lot of talk on here about Churchill, Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher, yet the betting and most seasoned observers suggest this is anything but a three horse race.
Is anything else running? |
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Th price of Yucatan has collapsed: he's been backed into 12 (here) from 21, best price is 16/1 with high street bookies.
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Cracksman now favourite on here. Just not much liquidity ffs.
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Probably taken a couple of k at the most to bring in Yucatan's price, hardly a wholesale gamble.
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