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Wouldn't be the biggest suprise if SJL is short for this after tomorrow. I think it was hinted as much earlier. Although it's not the most conventional of trial pointers.
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Sir John Lavery looks a real Derby type. Only him and Cliffs of Moher of the AOB trained horses would interest me at this stage. I consider Eminent more a Derby horse than a Guineas horse too.
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JG takes on SJL with Tartini who finished behind Cracksman at Epsom. He said then he thought he was a Leger horse so it will be interesting.
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Looking back at the Dee Stakes, the pace appeared very slow early, Moore said it was, and that's how it was when comparing the times. In those circumstances it's not quite as disappointing that COM took so long to overhaul the winner. A moderate horse can give a better horse a hard race when given a start off a slow pace. Particularly middle distance runners unless they possess an excellent turn of speed. I suppose having backed him I'm going to try to look for positives so maybe I'm being optimistic but I won't be writing him off yet. Being honest I wouldn't back him on that run if I hadn't already done so. I remember being on Cecil's Armiger ante post and feeling a bit disappointed with him at Chester even though he won, he never lived up to expectations afterwards, although I think he may have had physical problems afterwards. On the other hand I was on Sky Lantern ante post and even though I remained hopeful after her Nell Gwyn second I probably wouldn't have backed her based on that run. So I don't regret taking an early position on COM, I'd be kicking myself if I had left him until today and he did go on to win without me backing him.
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I've been backing Exemplar for the Derby,
anyone know if he's due to run? Was entered for Lingfield but a n/r. cheers. |
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I must say the Derby trials so far have been a disappointment with not a single horse that is head and shoulder above all the others including Cliff Of Moher (more hype/reputation than form) unless one is associated with his connections; so far the best trial could even be the Derrinstown Stakes ie Yucatan, who finished 2nd but running on strongly despite given too much too do and an extra two furlongs could see him to his best.
Sir John Lavery, if not from the AOB's stable, would be nearer 33/1 on given form; he is also running in the least competitive Derby Trial tomorrow; he is the least of my fancy from the AOB's stable. I think Cracksman needs to win the Dante to maintain his present position in the betting market; if he wins well, he would most likely be installed the fav, and rightly so...until (if) Churchill shows up, I guess. With Eminent going straight to Epsom (I believe), Mirage Dancer, if given the chance, could be the other one to follow if the trials tomorrow and next week do not throw up anything special. |
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Unless punters have already played before the trials do they really want a colt to show himself obviously head and shoulders above the rest? I can't see how that's any benefit unless you just want to back 6/4 favourites every year.
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yeah it's more interesting if it's competitive.
unless they decide to run Churchill it feels like another year where O'Brien will have about ten runners. Which doesn't mean he can't win of course but I feel they've had their most success when they've only run one or two |
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Looking at the times of all the races at Chester they are all a long way from the standard time, the Ormond was run 4.69seconds below standard, the maiden fillies race was run in a very slow time. Not sure if the ground worsened later on but i didn't think there was any more rain. They appeared to revise the ground after the 5f handicap at 3pm and the times seem to bear out that it wasn't good to firm.
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I have to disagree. A good three year old taking on the older horses in the Eclipse, King George and Arc is what makes flat racing and champions for me. This bunch of three year olds looks decidedly substandard. We are looking at horses who have been down the field in the Guineas and scraped home in trials. How many look Group 1 material?
And I wonder what they will be saying if the 3 year olds go and beat the older horses this year? Will that make them good, contrary to everyone we know now, or the older horses not as good as we thought? Do any of the 3 year old colts we have seen look Arc material? I like to see 3 year olds with strong form contesting these races to give us hope for later in the season. |
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Most of us on here have punters heads and don't obsess over such things as early as May. We're trying to find the winner of the Derby, or at least a value bet in the race. I'll make a final judgement of how good the 3yos are later in the season. If you can do it this early you must be a better judge than most.
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And I'll rate them as individuals, not like they come in a bunch.
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Do any of the 3 year old colts we have seen look Arc material?
how many G1 middle distances races have there been so far in order for us to make this assessment? |
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There are lots of handicaps if you want competitive races but I like my classics to be won by top class horses. It doesn't happen very often but that is what I like. The sort of horses that you can follow through the season. Get enthusiastic about them and go to watch them race. The classics need not be competitive unless they are competitive between top class horses.
As soon as Churchill won the Guineas thoughts of the Derby sprang to mind. And the same will be said after the Derby the Arc will come to mind. You can bet on the race now. This is the Derby not the Victoria Cup. Of course the 3 year olds will be assessed at the end of the season but that does not mean you cannot have an opinion now. It may be wrong and it may be right but forming an opinion is what punting is all about. And anyone suggesting they are punting without forming an opinion is just a little misguided. |
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Sir John Lavery bombed out spectacularly,...Churchill please, Mr O'Brien.
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Disappointing run by SJL. COM is looking like O'Brien's main hope now.
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with Moore on this when he could have been riding in the Pouliches you'd have to think this one is highly thought of at Ballydoyle
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What a strange race. Took no prisoners so proper result. Did Doyle or Buick overlook him? Must be in with a shout. I only asked yesterday what Godolphin had in the race.
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The Oaks trial won by a horse who has been running in handicaps and the 2nd in the Derby trial the same.
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I wonder how Glencadam Glory compares with Cracksman?
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Hmmm Coolmore rep buckley spoke of Lavery as his ideal derby horse out of the whole bunch, and he gets beat like that ? Odd how their affiliated bookies didn't share his view. I suppose i should blame myself. I'm quite dissapointed.
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It is a proper muddle. If Godolphin run Barney Roy and Best Solution then Barney Roy is going to have to stay the way BS finished off that race. If AOB runs Churchill it looks like he is going to have to stay for the same reason. I very much doubt the Derby will be slowly run. But what other choices have they got?
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Still think the value bet left is Crystal Ocean @ 33/2 who thrashed Okool who ties in to Eminent and Glencadam Glory.
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^33/1
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You could be right Uncle, I looked at him last night. It's too difficult. I will stick with laying in the Dante and if he shortens up then laying in the Derby. I keep adding horses to the list of possibles.
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Lifting this from the Irish newspapers - Lord knows who pays them to write this ..
The Herald's racing correspondent Niall Cronin has backed Aidan O'Brien's Churchill to make it for next month's Epsom Derby despite a lot of skepticism as to whether or not the three-year-old can make the mile-and-a-half required. The Michael Tabor owned horse won at Newmarket last Saturday but there are concerns over his credentials for the Derby despite O'Brien's confidence. The Punter's Platfrom's host Johnny Ward wrote in his column on Independent.ie earlier this week that he spoke to other horse racing correspondents in the Leopardstown press-room last weekend, with a general consensus forming that Churchill would be unlikely to stay for a Derby trip. Cronin, however, contests this theory. "He just pulls it out," Cronin said of Churchill. "He just does enough. I know people are maybe fed up, and if he was trained by someone else and he won a guineas and there was a bit of hype around him, maybe people would be buying it a bit more, but we do hear an awful lot about Ballydoyle horses that they're this, that they're that, that they can do anything, but I just think this horse - he switches off, he hits his flat spot, he picks up and he does what he has to do to. "See The Stars never won by anymore than a length-and-a-half. He just always did enough, he tanked a bit early in some of his races but like Ballydoyle did everything that year to get him beat, in terms of running four or five against him, crowding him out, but he was just far too good." Ward said that he fancied Cliffs of Moher prior to the Derrinstown stakes, however, he said he's also wary of Sir John Lavery ahead of the Derby. |
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Sea the Stars - Cape Cross x Ouija Board - ... any possible relevance ???
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(no doubt that would make a fine cross :) )
Cape Cross x Urban Sea (Miswaki) |
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I keep looking to see if Churchill has shortened up but only out of interest. I really can't see this race being run to suit him and from reading the above comments others would love to take him on if he runs.
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Let's write an article comparing Apples and Oranges !!
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The Herald's racing correspondent - his take - See The Stars never won by anymore than a length-and-a-half. He just always did enough, he tanked a bit early in some of his races but like Ballydoyle did everything that year to get him beat, in terms of running four or five against him, crowding him out, but he was just far too good.
Amazing. |
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what is the maximum number of horses that O'brien could feasibly run in the Derby? I was thinking four runners. One of all the trial winners plus possibly Churchill. Or would that compromise churchill's chances as they would go a strong gallop
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I should imagine if Churchill does run
they will go a good pace anyway,they don't want to play to a 2000G wnr's strenghths. |
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Exemplar in next week's Dante is the last chance for AOB, but its best form is behind Capri which is highly unlikely to be good enough. Also, it is his 1st run of the season.
If Cracksman wins impressively in the Dante the Derby will be well within his compass unless AB reroute's Churchill here; if so, Churchill could be as short as 6/4 - if he stays, the most likeliest winner. |
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AOB stable tour comments:
Capri: He should come on a lot and will go for another Derby trial. Cliffs of Moher: He's a smart colt and will be starting off in one of the Derby trials. Exemplar: He'll be starting of shortly in one of the Derby trials, we think he'll stay 12f. Galilean: We'll run him in a Derby trial. Finn McCool: He'll go for one of the Derby trials, we think he'll improve. Sir Edwin Landseer: He'll probably start in one of the Derby trials. Sir John Lavery: He could be the one for the Lingfield Derby trial. The Anvil: He'll get his chance in a Derby trial. Utah: He'll probably run in one of the Derby trials. Yucatan: He'll go for another Derby trial. No mention of a Derby trial for Venice Beach. |
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surprised ffs that you're so keen to mock the Churchill/sea the stars comparison. seems quite a relevant one to me.
thought best solution was impressive today and now comes into the picture |
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that winner today has already lost
5 times,bad Derby if that wins the race. |
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well a couple of times best solution lost was on the dirt and some horses just don't handle that surface.
Anyway I think the evidence already points overwhelmingly to it being a pretty bad derby, at least at the moment. who knows, something might emerge from the dante. |