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Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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agree with the comments about crystal ocean being some value. think the sire is a fabulous fit for Epsom having had the last derby winner and also won the race himself, and crystal ocean is extremely well related being a half brother to crystal capella and hillstar.
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The Derby is usually won by an average winner for the race, the clue is in the term 'average'. Frequently it's won by a slightly above average winner who wins comfortably from the rest. Occasionally it's won by a special horse who pulverises the opposition or beats them easing down. The beaten horses in a Derby are rarely anything to write home about. Once in a blue moon we get the first two pretty exceptional. That's the way it's always been and to suggest anything else is nostalgic nonsense. Did Lammtarra look like a future Arc winner going into the race off a once raced Listed win? Or Sinndar when he scraped home in his Derby trial? Or Workforce when he was beaten in his trial? Give them a chance for christ's sake.
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Anyone know if Crystal Ocean been tipped up somewhere ?
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If you forced me to have a bet, I´d probably take Venice Beach. No worries about the ground, a strong pace or the distance. Just hope he keeps progressing like his half-sister did as a 3 year old. Signs are there from a weakish maiden straight into a Gr.3.
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bobbyjo 13 May 17 20:56 Anyone know if Crystal Ocean been tipped up somewhere ? When I talk the market listens.  |
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totally agree figgis
interesting comparison re danedream and venice beach, he was on my radar last season for this after he finished 2nd to titus just because of his breeding |
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Btw - can anyone tell me why a scheduled 22.13 race (Zhukova) went off at 9.13 in Ireland !?
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BF hacking trying to stop me eat the money pool
 ? (didn't work) |
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And what of Rekindling?
His sire High Chaparral and Harzand won the Ballysax Stakes; he is a full-brother to Golden Sword and from the family of Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks heroine Alexandrova among others and I think he is a much better prospect for the Derby than Cracksman and hopefully he will prove it in the Dante Stakes. |
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Nice Uncle
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'much better prospect for the Derby' Madhu you could be right. There are a few much better prospects assuming Cracksman is all we have seen.
I did look closely at him but what bothers me is that Rekindling has run twice as many times as Cracksman and in his first run he finished 2nd beating the 3rd horse who has never won a race. In his second run he won beating a horse who has never won a race. In his third race he was last of thirteen. He has run once this year winning almost the first race of the season on 8th April beating three AOB horses into 2nd, 3rd and 4th and who you can guarantee were nowhere near fit and ready. That could have been his Derby so I will have to see him run again before wondering how much improvement he has. |
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Rekindling may have won a shade cosily last time so you couldn't rule out him being capable of better. My doubts with him are that while they didn't go an early all out gallop in the Ballysax they still went a fair pace but despite this the first three were covered by only 1 and a half lengths and the time was quite moderate. I have allowed that the 10f races were run over slower ground but it's still quite an ordinary time compared with what was a poor handicap.
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It appears Rekindling never seems to have been highly thought of. He was 28/1 first time and even though finishing 2nd he was 8/1 for his maiden he was then 22/1 in a better race and 16/1 last time. JOB acquired him from Wachman and he may have thought the best time for him to win a good race was early season before the better horses were ready. I don't know but these are the facts as I see them. We will know more in the Dante possibly the best race he will have run in and he will be the shortest price he has ever been.
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Cracksman to me owes his position
in the market to what his connections did with Golden Horn,not what he's done. Anyone else train this would be bigger than 7s after scrambling home in the Epsom trial. |
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The elephant in the room is Churchill. If he runs then it would seem likely that the other`s odds will increase. Until this is revealed I think the market will be defensive. Equally if Cracksman doesn`t perform in the Dante then his price is skinny but if he wins it will look big. Personally right now I`m on the fence. I would like to see Exemplar run but the market says otherwise which leaves me still on the fence.
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I'm on Exemplar but it seems there might
be a problem as he was down to run @Lingfield. |
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I have made no secret of the fact the Cracksman, being a Frankel, would be shorter in the market as a result, that is one of the reasons I backed him last year. His form though is comparable to those around him at this moment in time. He beat Bay of Poets at Epsom following a troubled run by about the same distance as Cliffs of Moher beat Bay of Poets at Chester where he had his head shoved off for four furlongs. The other horses with better form are not certain runners. Take those out and I find it hard to see a horse with better form given the Epsom run was just a sighter and there is likely a good bit more to come.
Do I think he can win? My head says no but my head has been wrong before. |
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Im beginning to side a little with Benbatl, who is widely available at 33-1. Couldn't have won his maiden at Doncaster any easier than he did and then came out and ran very green in the Craven and finished 2 lengths behind Eminent & Rivet. With Eminent enhancing that form with a nice run in the 2000G and Rivet running later today in the French equivalent that Craven form could begin to look relatively strong.
Benbatl is priced up between 5s and 8s for Thursdays Dante and his trainer added yesterday that he is 'doing very well ahead of the dante'. Touch wood he runs well and leaves him primed for the Derby. Whether he stays a mile and a half would be my only concern, however I am more than happy to chance it at the price |
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I looked at Benbatl and I have to agree with regard to the question of his stamina. When he ran at Newmarket he was the only horse to have already run and was race fit. He passed Eminent as they went into the Dip but on meeting the rising ground Eminent went past him quite easily and was clearly drawing away. I cannot see any reason, other than misfortune, that would see him beating Eminent.
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Looking back at King of Kings, which was the last time Coolmore sent a Guineas winner to the Derby as more of an afterthought, I'd completely forgotten he started as big as 11/2. That horse had a big reputation also but in my view was just an average standard Guineas winner. However I still have Churchill behind him at the moment. Everyone seems to think that if Churchill does run he'll get hammered in the market but looking back at King of Kings that might not happen.
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The price of Crystal Ocean has halved to 16/1, genuine punters induced or bookies red herring? This horse has less form and fairly similar experience as Mirage Dancer (same trainer but not a certain runner) who ran well to finish 4th behind Cliffs Of Moher in the Dee Stakes.
The price of Churchill has contracted to 7 (here) with Cliffs of Moher out to almost 10, significant or just punters and traders taking and adjusting their positions respectively? |
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If Churchill does run (and I still think it's unlikely) it will be interesting to see if the other yards finally show some nous and try to influence how the race is run. Or will they do what they did last time? Which was allow Coolmore to run the race to suit themselves then whinge about their bad luck afterwards.
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Given Fabre´s form Waldgeist is a big price. 2nd on reappearance in a G2 beaten by a horse that is unbeaten in three runs as a 3 year old.The form of the Criterium seems to be holding up pretty well this season.
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Fabre thinks he is long term Irish Derby possibility and looks ground dependent to me. Almost everything looks to have an outside chance such s this year's race.
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I hope UK trainers let there horses take their chances and aren't put off by Ballydoyle flooding the race. Really depressing to see these 12 runner Derbys with 5 from AOB.
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You have the Irish 2000, and then the St James - Dawn Approach did bounce back from Epsom to win at Ascot but he was eased early - what point running a potential Champion Miler and give him a hard race effectively ruling him out of two v important races .. ?
Commercial Logic just says no chance. |
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some interesting price moves today with both cliffs and cracksman much bigger than they were. I did a quick look and looking at likely runners the book is possibly under 100% on the lay side so people laying both horses at say 10.0 or 11.0 don't have a great deal of margin to play with.
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And whatever the Dante throws up, I do think Cliffs of Moher will go with a big chance - he's only had his 3rd run and is fitting the pattern of all the good AO'B horses of recent years (i.e. when they haven't had a Camelot / Australia)
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@ffs.... yeah both horses have been weak on betfair today, only for insignificant money but the only horses being backed were probably churchill and Crystal ocean. I had a quick sum up and i couldn't get to 100% and i was pricing up a 16 runner derby.
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Cliffs went out a point last night, Cracksman a point today, Churchill 0.4 point since 3 o'oclock and Eminent a point to 1.5 since 3. Just a few taking positions before some decisions are made. I was a littleinvolved in three of the movers but not for much. Nothing about.
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@impossible123 -- The price of Crystal Ocean has halved to 16/1, genuine punters induced or bookies red herring?
Trading imo. A Nashwan-type gallop-and-punt would lead to a bigger price cut. Everything that's run in a trial has disappointed but something has to win the Derby so people are looking around for maiden winners. It will probably come in another couple of points tomorrow when punters see the Racing Post. |
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With Crystal Ocean being backed for the Dante and Derby (why, is beyond me given known form) it is inevitable Cracksman has drifted out slightly; the drift of Cliffs of Moher is a concern though ie a work-in-progress horse given a hard race, and only just won. He could be saved for Royal Ascot than being subject to another hard race in the Epsom Derby similar to US Army Ranger, and we know what that did to the horse!
I believe the best of the AOB's at present is the form of the Derrinstown Trial ie Yucatan, who was about 7 lengths off the pace and given too much to do but finished really well over 10f - an extra 2f will see him in good stead. Also, he is extremely experienced and ran in Group company last season along with Capri; the rest of AOB's are either still immature and/or green. Having watched the wins of Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher (CoM) again, and using Bay Of Poets (BoP) as a guide I think there is little between Cracksman and CoM; Cracksman was momentarily caught flat-footed when the front two quickened at the 2f pole - BoP had to be switched; CoM was well positioned and had 1st run on BoP who'd to come wide and a long way back - BoP is not Epsom but King Edward (Royal Ascot) bound. My 4 for the Derby are eg:- 1) Churchill (doubtful) 2) Eminent 3) Yucatan 4) Mirage Dancer (doubtful) |
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I might be seen as talking out of my pocket but better than out of my arse which is how I see the suggestion that Cliffs of Moher will be saved for Ascot for fear of having a hard race at Epsom. Nobody knows how hard a race any horse will have in the Derby and if trainers constantly feared the unknown there would be no point in running them at all. For me Cliffs of Moher couldn't have had that hard a race at Chester as the pace was so slow for most of the race. Whether he can do better off a faster pace is open to question but I think he can based on his Leopardstown win.
In my view the Derrinstown is moderate form and it's difficult to say any horse in that race should obviously be capable of better as the pace was good enough for all of them to show what they could do. Yucatan was off the pace but given how the race was run he had no excuse and could've won if good enough. As none of the horses involved in the finish could be called very lightly raced it's also doubtful that they will come on a good deal for the experience. Comparing the form of Cracksman and Cliffs of Moher on a line through Bay of Poets is dubious as both of those races were falsely run. I think both winners have a possible excuse for not winning so impressively because of the slow early pace. The question is how both of them will handle a (hopefully) truer run Derby. Cliffs of Moher has already run faster than at Chester when winning his maiden, but whether he ran as fast as a few of us rated him time will tell. As Howellsy said, Cracksman put up a decent time for a debutant over 1m last year. By my reckoning he'll have to improve around another 20lbs to win an average Derby but it's possible he could. However I'd rather wait to see how he performs in the Dante. |
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I123 - you should get in touch w John Magnier and tell him that winning the King Edward VII and having a nice 4yo for next year is better than banging in a Derby and throwing him a book of mares :D
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I think he can based on his Leopardstown win
It was let down a bit today - but god knows what the conditions really were, Rivet ran v well, and it was a v long way back. But he's the real deal: As AO'B said in his Stable Tour: I don’t know if he’s as good as that bare form suggests, but we’ll be delighted if he is |
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There are three big factors to side with Cliffs over Cracksman imo, 1)He has speed, 2)He beat Bay of Poets (when that horse was having his 2nd run of the season), 3)He's a Galileo !
Also found this on the cuttings floor re: Cracksman and Derby Trial "For what it is worth, Gosden was extremely downbeat about the Frankel colt’s chances, citing a complete lack of maturity. Frankie Dettori, his jockey, agreed with him later that day" |