That's been my mistake. Backing a horse last year hoping to lay off and here we are 3 weeks away and no real idea of a market. I cannot remember it being this bad.

whats your view on the dante figgis? looks a very competitive race. seems like a bit of a headscratcher to me, not only have you got to work out if cracksman will confirm form with Permian, there's also the stoute angle with crystal ocean, plus some godolphin horses in there as well

what did you think of cracksmans closing sectionals at Epsom? did they mark him out as being top class?

Interesting type just gone in for Johnny G at windsor there,Crowned Eagle,very well bred.Presumably not as good as Cracksman???

Cracksman

If I had a good position on Cracksman right now after reading this I would green-out ASAP.
"The opposition in the Dante looks as though it's going to be very strong with a bigger field than you might normally expect," said Oppenheimer. "Godolphin are planning to send a big team to the race and I believe Sir Evelyn de Rothschild's horse has a very good chance. "I wouldn't be surprised if we don't win at York but instead finish in the first three and then decide not to run in the Derby."

"Cracksman isn't like Golden Horn at all, in that he's been very laid-back, although he's now much better. I walked away from the Epsom trial only hoping he might be able to come back for the Derby. "I don't feel at this stage the same as I felt about Golden Horn. Going into the Dante I didn't think Golden Horn would stay a mile and a half in the Derby. "This year my worry is whether we're good enough to be running in the Derby. I'd like to see him win the Dante before I start thinking seriously about Epsom."

Gosden said: "The Dante is closer to the Derby than usual, owing to a late Easter. "We’ve lost a week, which isn't helpful. On the other hand Cracksman needs the experience to race if we're even to consider Epsom. He's had only two runs in his life. "It’s the smartest trial, but I still see it as a trial. He came out of his last race well and he learned a lot."

The owner of Cracksman is playing down his prospect of winning the Dante and running in the Derby. Oppenheimer: "I wouldn't be surprised if we don't win at York but instead finish in the 1st 3 and then decide not to run in the Derby."

I used to be a parrot but I'm alright now. I used to be a parrot buy I'm alright now.

Looking at few weather forecasts there appears to be plenty of rain coming to York before Thursday.

Brig .. Mr Oppenheimer doesn't fill you with confidence in the RP does he. Looks like bollies off and one for next years Triumph.

It's not the same for me because I have only backed him but I feel the same. I bet he gets beaten and doesn't even run in the Derby. As a punter have you ever felt like that?
The facts are that the Stoute horse could be anything or nothing. It's not like he has been lined up for this for weeks. I guess this movement is based more upon lack of opposition than it is on known ability.
I know Workforce won the Derby after being beaten in the Dante but his racing profile was miles different. He won his maiden by 6 lengths beaten a 90+ rated horse. In the Dante he was really short behind a Godolphin horse who had been narrowly beaten in a Gr1, had been 2000 Guineas favourite on the day and had just won a Gr3. The winner of the Dante was unbeaten and had won a Gr2 and a Gr3. I suggest this Dante is a lot different and so is the Stoute horse.
Of course so is the opposition.

Godolphin are running four because they don't know the pecking order, JOB is running one who his stable has never fancied in a race and AOB may be having a last dart at something.
I hope Frankie remembers Epsom, gets him prominent or leading and makes all. They keep saying the horse is laid back so won't over do himself in front.

What I don't want is to look back and say 'why did he do that ffs?'.

The only positive of Cracksman over Golden Horn is his ability to stay the Derby distance better, but he is no Golden Horn in terms of ability and form achieved up to the present moment.

The form of Crystal Ocean is no better than Mirage Dancer so why the price discrepancy; the support for him is solely on the reputation of his trainer, and the lack of any outstanding horse so far. These two horses have achieved far less than Midterm.

Rekindling was a former inmate of Wachman who'd retired. Rekindling, to me, ran probably the best trial both here and Ireland eg beating Yucatan/Capri - horses with good Group form - given the performances and domination of the other AOB's inmates at Chester; he certainly deserves to be running in the Dante. I think the Dante could be his trip as he did not pull away from Yucatan despite having 1st run over the latter.

Of Godolphin, apart from Best Solution, only Benbatl is unexposed and would have the credential to progress further on his form behind Eminent - the rest could be discounted, in my opinion.

Cracksman needs to win, and win well otherwise his position at the head of the market will be no longer, and possibly scratched from this race, I fear, given the proximity of the Dante and Derby this year.

"Of Godolphin, apart from Best Solution, only Benbatl is unexposed and would have the credential to progress further on his form behind Eminent - the rest could be discounted, in my opinion"

I'm not sure that's right, Imp.  Not sure that's right at all, old boy.

Looks like there will be very heavy rain on Wednesday so whatever happens the Dante form may becoming a bit misleadiing unless it's also soft on Derby Day. There may also of course be a flurry of non-runners.
Given all that I've backed Wolf Country @ 14/1 who should lap it up.

As for whether Cracksman needs to win or not it all depends on the pace of the race. If they go slow and he finishes strongly then allowances can be made, but if it's a well run race there should be no excuse really.

wasatch range - win handicap 19th may go on to derby - similar to jack hobbs 2 years ago

I have no problem with Eminent in this regard. He has only run 3 times, twice this year so not over raced. He was running right away from Benbatl in the Craven, who had already run, and the Guineas wasn't run to suit him.
I mentioned Benbatl being highly rated by Sin Bin but I am sure Cracksman would have held the same position with Gosden had he done a stable tour.
Will thy all run if the ground is very soft?
I have to say I was worried that a fast York would not have suited Cracksman so I have no complaints in that regard. I just wish, like everyone else, the connections had kept their collective mouths shut. They may be right but by pushing out the price for both races makes my life difficult for no reason.

Surely you want connections to say what they think truthfully, if AO doesn't believe that Cracksman is as good as Golden horn then that's something I am interested in as a punter as he is much better placed to know having been privy to information that I am not. It would be terrible if trainers / owners always referred to their stock as the 2nd coming regardless of whether they thought that or not.

he's been very laid-back, although he's now much better

From Oppenheimer's comments it sounds like Cracksman doesn't really show a lot at home so they probably don't really know what they've got, they're more hoping.

That's absolutely right imo. In his first race Frankie rode something else and last time out JG said he thought he wouldn't win. Well if the race had been properly run and he hadn't met trouble he would, I believe, have won a lot easier than he did. So they have been wrong so far. From a potential laying point of view though the last thing you want is the connections talking him down.
I feel the same about Eminent and took 17s and 18s the other day because I am trying to look at the race without Cracksman.

Unless Churchill turns up and/or Eminent upholds the Guineas form this year's Derby renewal is very ordinary, and unlikely to trouble the judge against their elders in the Autumn big races eg Eclipse or the Arc.

Agreed Headmaster, total garbage. It might not look strong at the moment but we could get a 6 lengths winner, nobody knows how strong the form will be before the race. This obsession with Churchill, as though he's already a superstar, has become very tedious.

Can you tell me what Wolf Country, Call To Mind, Forest Ranger and Valcartier will be rated at the end of the season, Imp?  Tempted to throw in Contrapposto too, who despite already having 5 runs looks like he's aching for a trip so I would class as unexposed.  He reminds me a little of Libertarian.