Fair enough Figgis. Treve does look to be the exception that can break the stats against 5 yr olds. Interesting that Fabre kind of hinted that she may have overdone the trial.

Yes, and I can see why Fabre said that. Fortunately her trial wasn't run at a fast overall pace and for me it is overall fast races that have the most detrimental effect. However, after seeing her already quickened on the bridle to track the leaders I did get that wow factor feeling when she quickened to win the race and when the jockey kept her up to her work my thoughts were wtf is he doing.

You know my view about the perentage of Arc winners who show substantial improved form to win the race. My strategy is opposite to you here in that I'll take the potential for improvement over proven form providing that potential is not discounted already. I won't be surprised if NB improves at least 7 lb over PB. Peintre Celebre improved 12lb, Rail Link 8 lb Carnegie 11 lb so Fabre's pattern  is to get them to hit a bigger peak on the day.

The vibe I got from O'Brien before and after the Irish Champion Stakes was the race was just a prep for Found, for her to finish so close to Golden Horn and Free Eagle was a bonus even with the bump. Free Eagle was trained to win the Irish Champion Stakes, that was his one objective and his connections stated that after the race and I would be pretty sure Golden Horn was primed for it as well with the Gleneagles match up. Neither Free Eagle or Golden Horn were pulling away from Found before Golden Horn bumped into Free Eagle, both also had first run on her off a moderate pace so I'm not sure how she was flattered being so close to them at the finish... the bump didn't affect Golden Horn's forward momentum that much. Free Eagle was very unlucky but it's all guess work whether he would have won or not!

Nobody knows whether a step up to 12F will bring any improvement for Found but I do think she will now be primed to run her best race at a track she likes. I will be very surprised if Treve gets beat but as some have posted there are no certainties in horse racing and I'm just hoping for the best now!

Sandown, actually I agree with you about improvement shown particularly when we're talking about French 3yos. As I said before, the way many of their races are run means horses are often not fully exposed, plus the generally lighter campaign gives them more chance to improve late on. However, of those Fabre winners you've mentioned I would only put Peintre Celebre's performance in the exceptional bracket and I think he's going to need something similar to that, or at least better than the others mentioned, to beat an on form Treve.

Looking at the profile of previous Arc winners, the only one to my mind other than Treve and NB, that fits the bill is JH. A lightly raced G1 winner, with a light campaign, an esy prep, who will like the prevailing ground. Hoever, his proven form is not strong enough and he hasn't shown that turn of foot which I like to see. Nevertheless, at the prices, he has to be considered.

Postponed had a hard race to my mind. It was a fast overall time but he finished in a slow last 2f. He had nothing up his sleeve and like GH after the Eclipse, he may need more time to hit top form. He's also better on faster imo.

Eagle Top in no way fits the profile of an Arc winner, so not on my list.

Found at the price, is interesting. She has to improve a lot more but the way she won the Boussac was classy. Worth a small interest.

GH , if he runs, would be a danger on his Epsom form not on his 3 races since. Not an ideal prep imo.

I'd give Prince of Gibralter a shout of being placed at a big price. he is certain to run, up for sale the day before, likes the likely ground and can place.

Free Eagle is a question mark because of the ground imo.

This year, the race revolves for me around 3/4 horses probably just 2. Trec#ve is priced on her 2013 win imom, not her 2014 win. As she has run 6/7 times since without her reaching her 2013 peak I have my doubts about her doing better than last year. That might still be good enough though.

For me, the British and Irish runners are generally disadvantaged to some degree mainly because of the difference in campaigns. Of the last winners, most of us agree that Sea The Stars had already proved himself an outstanding 3yo going into the race and while he didn't have an easy campaign beforehand he was still unbeaten that year and there was a feeling he still hadn't been fully tested because of the efficient way he ran. Workforce had only really run to form once, which was in the Derby and had been rested since running below par in the KG so was still a fresh horse, the doubt was whether he'd recapture his Derby form.

Dylan Thomas was an exception as he'd really had a busy time of it and some hard races, but even though he won I'd say it wasn't his best performance of the season and I seem to remember Timeform agreeing with that. For every winner with a Dylan Thomas type profile there are far many more very good horses that sank like a stone, such as Generous, Reference Point, Authorized, Daylami, etc.

possibly SG but thats the way he always runs....

Watched her Prix Vermeille rout a few times now and I think Jarnet tried his best to keep a lid on her exuberance but he just couldn't keep the lid on for long enough. It looked to me as he had no choice but to let her go in the end and to be fair I think he did a pretty good job. I don't think she's had as hard a race as a few are making out, she's a mare who looks to be full of herself and in fantastic form... the problem is the rest of the opposition cannot go quick enough for her IMO. I really will be surprised if she gets beat but betting at her current odds is not my bag so will just enjoy watching and hope Found nicks a place.

The Arc is run right-handed over 2400 metres on a track known as 'La Grand Piste'. The race begins beside one of the Bois de Boulogne's famous landmarks, Le Moulin (the windmill) and gently rises in the early stages until reaching the Porte de Boulogne when it dips downhill on a right-hand bend known as 'La Descente'.

The runners then enter a part of the track called 'the false straight' (la fausse ligne droit). This is where jockeys have to be careful. A premature move here can use up too much energy too quick and be fatal to a horse's chance.

The field then turns into a short 533-metre home straight. It is usually important to be close to the front by this stage but Bago still had a few lengths to find in last year's Arc. However neither jockey Thierry Gillet or his mount were short of previous Longchamp experience. Angled into clear daylight Bago's response was immediate and decisive.

Lol, bet he didn't include a chapter on getting a 16 year old Aberdonian up the spout.

One other concern I have, and it's not just this race, but most class races, is the in running comments of the racing post. The word quickened indicates class, but, in my research of results of horses with such comments in their last run, unless given a classic 5 week break, they, in general run below par next time out

Can you back this opinion up with the stats?

Sandown.

I don't have them at hand anymore, but the results were quite impressive regarding ing quickened and less than 5 weeks. I could give you 2 which I just found whilst looking up the records of Sea The Stars and Golden Horn.

Elm Park finished 3rd in the Dante, then flopped badly at Epsom.
Delegator finished 2nd in the guineas , then flopped badly at the Curragh.

I know that's not a comprehensive argument by just giving 2 examples, but it is something I've been wary of for a few years now when assessing a race. When a horse quickens, it invariably takes them out of their comfort zone, so inevitably, it would take something out of the horse during and after the race.

Sea The Stars has been mentioned a few times in the thread. He always raced within his abilities, which in hindsight, were better than his opponents. The only time he had to quicken, was in his final race, the Arc.

I remember the Mordin Derby pointer concerning horses that had received the comment 'quickened', from memory North Light, Authorized and Motivator all received those comments in the Dante before taking the Derby, which is usually about 3 weeks later. Usually the problem is when a horse is asked to race again soon after a very fast run race.

Another thing to consider is that some people feel that the wfa allowance is a little generous at 8lbs (11lbs for fillies) and has given 3yos the edge over the years but with Treve being a mare New Bay only receives 5lbs. I feel he's really going to have to be a bit special to beat her on those terms if she runs to form.

Another thing to consider is that some people feel that the wfa allowance is a little generous at 8lbs (11lbs for fillies) and has given 3yos the edge over the years but with Treve being a mare New Bay only receives 5lbs. I feel he's really going to have to be a bit special to beat her on those terms if she runs to form.


Looking back to 1949 the results show that there is absolutely no advantage to either sex. They both win 100% of what they should based on proportion of runners. So I guess that the weight-for-sex allowances over the years are spot on.

What is clear is that 3yr olds, and especially since 1980, do win at a higher rate than their numbers would suggest.The key figures from 1980 onwards are 3 yr 132%  4yr 94% and 5+ 30%.

Obviously, there are a number of factors at work here, but broadly speaking I think that its possible to say that through a combination of weight allowance, earlier maturity, proportionately better horses at 3 running, three olds have a definite edge especially against older horses.

I am hopeful that given the genius of Fabre, the  visual "wow" of NB's runs and the closeness of the performance ratings on my figures, that NB will run Treve close. Of that I'm confident. Winning, I can't say. but at the prices, I'm content.

Figgis
The best way to answer  the point about what 5 yr might have been expected to have won is to look at their odds percentages and total them. On that basis since 1990 we might have expected to see 4 winners. We've seen 1. So the evidence still suggests that 5 yr+ don't win as well as expected.

There has been some talk comparing generations and looking back Frankel’s classic generation (2011) included Danedream, Excelebration, Nathaniel, Moonlight Cloud, and Farhh and Al Kazeem that were all top class older horses winning multiple all-aged championship events over the following years.

Camelot’s 2012 classic generation couldn’t light a candle WFA in a poor Arc (Solemia) that year and he along with such as Encke were shadows as 4yo’s, although Noble Mission became a decent 5yo, and along with Al Kazeem (6yo), put the 3yo Free Eagle in his place in last year’s Champion.

Treve was way clear of her generation (2013) that included the likes of Olympic Glory,Toronado and  Dawn Approach over a mile but a 5yo Moonlight Cloud put OC and DA in their place in Marois. Treve’s year also includes Esoterique, who as a 4yo cosily beat 1000 Guineas winner Miss France in Prix Rothschild and as a 5yo mare outpaced the 3yo Territories in this year’s Marois. Moreover, that classic generation produced Solow who has annihilated the classic generation of milers from 2014 (Toormore, Night of Thunder). On a line through Territories and Esoterique I don’t think Gleneagles would have much hope against Solow over any distance.

Looking at the 2014 generation middle distance horses in Group 1 winners Postponed, Free Eagle, Kingston Hill, The Grey Gatsby, and Dolniya, I do not think they are up to much as a generation on the whole. Postponed is tough but how good is the KGQE and Prix Foy form. As for Free Eagle he must be the most over-rated/hyped horse in training and along with Found- all potential over 1 ½ miles, I have doubts about the true chances of  this generations flagship Golden Horn based on the Irish Champion, or for that matter the Eclipse form beating TGG. To be honest he has been on the go all year and I doubt he will turn up unless it is fast going where he would have the best chance of beating Treve, and under those conditions the 7’s available now will look enormous.

Regarding New Bay, I’m not sure about the merit of Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Niel (Silverwave, Group 3 horse at most and unfortunately for Freddy Migwar is a goose not a swan) although he won both readily.   New Bay certainly has great potential and has had the perfect Fabre preparation. Visually he looked good but no wow factor for me in comparison to the mare’s display the same afternoon.

I really like Jack Hobbs but being by Halling out of a Swain mare, for me he is all about next year but I can see him not putting up a good show after good gaps between races.
 
Overall, I think Treve is in a different league and exceptional, and will be unbeatable come Sunday 4th October.

Nearly all top class horses that have won multiple G1 races are packed off to stud after their 3yr old careers. Maybe more older horses would have won the ARC if they were all made to stay in training (not going to happen), most of the older horses that have run in the ARC are the nearly horses (G1 losers/G2 winners). Apart from the Japanese, who like to keep their classic generation winners in training there are not many top notch horses that I can remember that have stayed in training past 4. Treve is top notch, so I would say she has got a very good chance of winning a 3rd Arc and be the first 5yr old to win since Marienbard! Yep, Marienbard a perfect example of a nearly horse that runs in the Arc... but he won! Fabre didn't have a runner that year, that's probably why he won!

MrDinos - and he beat some real good 3yo classic generation horses in Sulamani, High Chaparral and Islington who went on as older horses, so not bad Arc really.