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** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
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Free Eagele's connections gave that impression Sintonian
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I still think Golden Horn has everything to prove. I think time will tell he beat a more immature Jack Hobbs and overrated Elm Park in Dante, and I think the former was totally unsuited to Epsom (because of his size, hanging down the straight). He was a different horse in the Irish Derby, analogous to St Jovite. There is no depth to much of the classic generation middle distance form, it’s all propped up by false ratings given by experts who pluck figures out of thin air.
It could be argued that the performance of Order of St George is the best by a 3yo this year; he would have walked over the front two in the English St Leger. Is he the best in the stable? On consideration they ended up running Milan against Sakhee; while Brian Boru went for the Canadian International, Scorpion took on Hurrican Run, and Leading Light was unplaced behind Treve- I think they might just send OOSG, the first 3yo since Vinnie Roe to win the Irish St leger,in preference Bondi Beach if either is under consideration, given the European sires' championship may be decided on the outcome of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. “He improved a lot for his second start … He stays well and has got lots of gears, too.” - Joseph O'Brien. Have taken 100+ on here. He just might blunt the mares speed. |
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sintonian
17 Sep 15 20:31 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 26,422 | Blogger: sintonian's blog I wouldn't be surprised if there are 10 runners or less this year. Some opposition will certainly be sacred of by the front few. not sure sint plenty of dead wood always seems to run, will be interesting to see, am surprised the germans have no real fancy for the race |
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Reading this Fred with a chuckle ,no one really committing other than the fav backers ,backed Treve last year at 14 on here and did not win a penny ,although did not lose either .Reading the description of the course earlier in the Fred it sounds more like Cheltenham
 than the long champ I have seen on the telly,(maybe I might make the trip this year )having not been to the wedding I have no intention of going to the funeral .Seems Treve could run around this cross country like track with a blindfold on and I fear this could be her downfall .To say everything fell right last year is a gross exaggeration .Great mare that she is I feel 3 wins might be a bridge too far but would not mind holding a voucher at 5 or 6 to wan .Would like to commit and say how I thunk the race will pan out but there does seem still to be a few variables needing to pan out to give the race more shape.Dont think JG Should be afraid of running the pair ,it's worked ok so far and what price a 1-2 ? Frankie D being jocked off last year after being beaten on her twice was a strange one and it's something I wonder about ,he was injured when she won at 3 so he must be left wondering what could have been ,no blame at ascot ,she was well beaten with no hard luck stories ,maybe it was the Ganay defeat (blinkered)at the hands of fellow fenchwoman and the mercurial gelding CDA whort hurt the relationship ,maybe criquet head-master did not enjoy being beaten that day and it stuck in her craw,she had been outsmarted and needed an excuse .Perhaps the vermille display is a attempt to thin field ,maybe she is more a best mate than a kauto Star ,but whatever way you want to put it she is in form ,loves the track and seems to come alive ,sparkle and sweat at the same time ,travel yet take hold ,on and off the bit ,rail like a whippet and then fly .And they know everyone knows what she is gunna try and do ....Would like to think there might be a surprise or two ,whort Japanese horses if any and what else from overseas ? Seen the Japanese horse (6th last year )at a fancy price (a only got 420) back in July and had a wee nibble ,,,only to subsequently find out he had been retire d in May ,so disappointed bf had not dropped it to bottom of page ,tbh feel things are slipping around here ,and the market has looked pretty dead for a while ,maybe it's time a ventured on course and tried the PM. |
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* she ....(harp star ) * criquette head-maarek , bloody double barrelled Frenchwoman ....although a have a soft spot for Corine Barande-Barbe after watching her feeding CDA sugar cubes
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It is no accident that Galileo, who has topped the table of European sires by prize-money for the last five years, has just lately turned around a huge deficit with Dubawi. The astute genious of Ballydoyle-Coolmore John Magnier has been there for all to see. And there is much more to come.
Over the past week he has sent the kitchen sink of Galileo’s such as Highland Reel and Found at the Irish Champion Stakes to get the place money. I guess he must of thought he had the St Leger’s covered with both Bondi Beach and Fields Of Athenry at Doncaster, and Order Of St George (good to soft at Doncaster and good to soft at the Curragh, it had nought to do with the going) and Kingfisher in the Irish version. Three in the Blandford Stakes (Outstanding, Easter and Tapestry) and Moyglare Stud Stakes (Ballydoyle, Minding and Alice Springs), even Sir Isaac Newton popped up after 3 months. It must have been excruciating when Mondialiste won at Woodbine, and kin Darley's flagbearer supplied the winners of the Prix Niel in New Bay and Prix Foy in Postponed, but kind to the eye when Arabian Queen blew out. The man knows they have no chance in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes because Solow will be there but he is by Singspiel, and it probably won’t be fast enough anyway for Gleneagles. Highland Reel is heading for the Champion and Found is going to mosey on down to the Prix de l'Opéra- she’s all speed at Longchamp; she ain’t going over further. After the Moyglare he has the Fillies Mile more or less covered- Dubawi’s Tanaza is not entered, and Bondi Beach and Fields Of Athenry will take advantage of the 11lb WFA in the Champions Long Distance. However, when it comes to Europe's richest race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Dubawi has two kin flies in the ointment in Postponed and New Bay, and we could add the Grand Prix de Paris winner Erupt .With Telescope out of the way and Ampere not good enough there is the prospect of a large hole if the Motivator mare does not to perform and a couple of Dubawi’s place. That leads the knight of shining armour in Galileo’s Order of St George to arrive and save the day. I think I have had a right result getting a few quid on for a few monkey’s if the mare disapoints! |
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1920-2014 (no race 1939, 1940)
runners 3yo 861; 4yo 485; 5yo 158; 6yo 50; 7yo 13; 8yo 3; 9yo 1 = 1571 winners 3yo 57; 4yo 27; 5yo 8; 6yo 0; 7yo 1; 8yo 0; 9yo 0 = 93 runners% 3yo 54.8; 4yo 30.9; 5yo 10.1; 6yo 3.2; 7yo 0.8; 8yo 0.2; 9yo 0.1 winners% 3yo 6.6; 4yo 5.6; 5yo 5.1; 6yo 0.0; 7yo 7.7; 8yo 0.0; 9yo 0.0 average field 16.9 average overround 124% oldest field 2005, avg age 4.4 youngest field 1933, avg age 3.0 (all 15 were 3yo) Years 3yos were 1,2,3 .... 21 times years 2x3yo+1x4yo in 1,2,3 ...24 times Oldest 1,2,3 (14): 1932 7,4,3; 1969 4,5,5; 1975; 5,5,4; 1988 5,5,4 |
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Favourite Disappoints
1928: Bubbles jf, 10th of 11 1931: Tourbillon, 6th of 10 1942: Le Pacha, 6th of 9 1949: Bagheera jf, 16th of 28 1964: Le Fabuleux, 18th of 22 1982: Assert, 11th of 17 1993: Hernando, 16th of 23 2004: Prospect Park, 16th of 19 2007: Authorized, 10th of 12 Shocks 1925: Priori 40s (9th of 15 in betting) fav 2nd 1935: Samos 19s (7th of 12 in betting) fav 4th 1957: Oroso 52s (15th of 24 in betting) fav 6th 1962: Soltikoff 40s (12th of 24 in betting) fav 5th 1967: Topyo 82s (23rd of 30 in betting) fav 4th 1969: Levmoss 52s (14th of 24 in betting) fav 5th 1975: Star Appeal 119s (24th of 24 in betting) fav 5th 1981: Gold River 53s (13th of 24 in betting) fav 7th 1987: Trempolino 20s (6th of 11 in betting) fav 8th 1993: Urban Sea 37s (11th of 23 in betting) fav 16th 2006: Rail Link 23.6 (6th of 8 in betting) fav 3rd 2011: Danedream 20s (10th of 16 in betting) fav 7th 2012: Solemia 33s (13th of 18 in betting) fav 7th Interesting that none of the shocks were in a year the favourite disappointed (except 1987; 1993). This suggests the winner was underestimated (in the conditions?) Placed at a price 1920: King's Cross 33s (2nd) 1921: Flechois 33s (2nd) 1922: Flechois 99s (2nd) 1922: Relapse 80s (3rd) 1925: Tras Los Montes 66s (3rd) 1942: Breughel 33s (3rd) 1945: Chanteur 47s (3rd) 1949: Double Rose 60s (2nd) 1955: Picounda 60s (3rd) 1956: Talgo 100s (2nd) 1957: Denisy 45s (2nd) 1958: Fric 37s (2nd) 1959: Midnight Sun 50s 92nd; Le Loup Garou 45s (3rd) 1966: Sigebert 50s (2nd) 1968: Carmarthen 90s (3rd) 1969: Grandier 70s (3rd) 1970: Miss Dan 38s (3rd) 1971: Cambrittzia 39s (3rd) 1972: Homeric 39s (3rd) 1974: Comtesse De Loir 53s (2nd); Margouillat 72s (3rd) 1975: On My Way 79s (2nd) 1980: Argument 74s (2nd) 1982: Awaasif 90s (3rd) 1986: Triptych 94s (3rd) 1987: Tony Bin 29s (2nd) 1988: Boyatino 138s (3rd) 1992: Vert Amande 75s (3rd) 1993: White Muzzle 54s (2nd) |
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There are enough fears already expressed about the front 2 in the market to warrant another inspection further down the field. Just checked a few weather reports for the next fortnight and there is more dry days than not. On the not days, the rainfall is quite minimal. Last Sunday, the ground was said to be very soft, though times, in my limited knowledge, would suggest soft at worst, to gd/soft at best. So, it's more than reasonable to suggest that we are looking at good ground at least
Flintshire 25/1 ew. Now that has raised a few eyebrows on here from the time boys, whom on previous threads have found him to be over rated. Won nicely enough lto, carrying the quickened comment in his write up. That run will be 5weeks ago come race day, so in theory, he's had time to recover. Has run all his best races after the 5 week break...14221231. Given his ideal conditions of 5 week break and good ground or better...122121 Maybe Fabre has finally realised whst his conditions are, thus avoiding the Foy.. For a horse that's won 3.7 million in prize money, no matter what the figures might say, 25/1 is far too big. |
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Yes Twonky,
very decent next two weeks forecast, lots of sun, lots of drying. They got hit terribly last weekend and again during the week (which we missed in Ire/Gb) but big High Pressure over France atm |
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Looks like Jack Hobbs could be the latest exclusion.
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JACK HOBBS could skip the Qatar Prix De L'Arc de Triomphe to wait for the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot 13 days later if the ground dries out too much to suit him.
The Irish Derby winner is a top-priced 9-1 for the Arc on October 4 and trainer John Gosden is also on weather watch for stablemate Golden Horn, a general 7-1 chance. Gosden is hoping to run Golden Horn if the ground is good to soft or quicker at Longchamp, a scenario which could yet see Jack Hobbs re-routed to the Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 17. The trainer said: "I really need to see a reliable long range weather forecast, but I've never seen a horse handle testing ground as well as Treve did in the Prix Vermeille so we are mindful of her if Jack Hobbs takes his chance. "But if it dries out it could well be that we save Jack Hobbs for the Champion Stakes as he can't do both as the races are 13 days apart. Both horses are also in the Breeders' Cup, so there is that to consider as well." The Gosden duo paraded along with Derby third Storm The Stars before racing at Newmarket on Saturday in what was Golden Horn's first public appearance since winning the Irish Champion Stakes last weekend. Gosden said: "He only lost two kilos after Ireland and was in as good form going into the Irish Champion as he is coming out of it. He would have won easier in Ireland but for shying at a shadow and also a photographer's holdall. "We'd like to take him to the Arc where hopefully he won't have to make his own running. His best performance was coming off the pace in the Derby. |
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Gosden is hoping to run Golden Horn if the ground is good to soft or quicker at Longchamp
Strange, as everybody, bar the clerk of the course, was in agreement that good to soft was the worst it could possibly have been for the King George yet he was pulled out of that. Afterwards the trainer said that Golden Horn barely gets 12f. In view of all that I'd have thought GH would only run if the ground was good or better. "But if it dries out it could well be that we save Jack Hobbs for the Champion Stakes" Not really sure what sort of ground "dries out" means here. I can't recall many Arcs in recent years being run on ground described as faster than good and it seems unlikely to happen this year, so why mention it? |
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Well Swinley Bottom certainly didn't look very bad ground on the video. Gosden himself said at the time that the ground wasn't particularly soft at that part of the track but it was "sticky", he even said Golden Horn could probably go on genuine soft ground. In any case only a small percentage of the 12f course is run at Swinley Bottom. Afterwards he expressed reservations about his horse's stamina on slow ground.
What if the ground is described as good to soft on Arc day but there are a few sticky patches? Will Gosden be trusting the official description? Will he be poking his stick around the course? Or will he wait for a race or two being run? As he didn't wait at Ascot. If it's genuine good ground will that mean GH runs but it'll have dried out too much for Jack Hobbs? These questions and many others will be answered in the next trainer statement. Or maybe not. |
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we probably won't know which if any is running until Gosden walks the course before racing
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Jack Hobbs should/could have run in the Prix Niel last week, an ideal 3 week gap to the 'Arc', rather than that 'easy' race at Kempton if wished to be considered a serious contender for the 'Arc'.
By the way, has Godolphin got a runner in the 'Arc'? If not, Jack Hobbs could still run in the 'Arc' along with Golden Horn if the ground was no worse than good with Godolphin being the majority owner (I believe); I also believe Jack Hobbs can reverse Derby placing with Golden Horn in the 'Arc'. |
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1920-2014
Position of winner in betting (93 races) Winning favourite 34 2nd in betting 13 3rd in betting 10 4th in betting 6 5th in betting 8 6th in betting 5 7th in betting 5 8th in betting 0 9th in betting 2 10th in betting 2 11th in betting 1 12th in betting 1 13th in betting 2 14th in betting 1 15th in betting 1 23rd in betting 1 24th in betting 1 Finishing position of favourite (93 races) Winning favourite 34 finished 2nd 13 finished 3rd ** 11 finished 4th 6 finished 5th 6 finished 6th 5 finished 7th 3 finished 8th 4 finished 9th 0 finished 10th * 5 finished 11th 3 finished 13th 1 finished 16th * 3 finished 18th 1 * joint fav Average price of favourites 1.90/1 Average price of winner (93) 11.2/1 Average price of winning 3yos (58) 9.0/1 Average price of winning 4yos (27) 12.7/1 Average price of winning 5yos+ (8) 21.9/1 Average price of winning colts 10.5/1 Average price of winning fillies 13.5/1 |
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I think this latest Gosden statement has left things far more ambiguous than before. He'd always previously stated that they didn't want ground slower than good for Golden Horn, particularly over 12f (although personally I regard the statement that the horse barely gets 12f as nonsense), now it's shifted to good to soft. This was his response after Jack Hobbs won his trial
“There’s no reason not to go to France with him,” Gosden said. “We’re perfectly aware he’s given this 7lb penalty away, he’s won well and we’re happy to get a nice prep race at home rather than travelling for it and then having to come back to travel again" Giving the clear impression that all being well France will be his target, with only maybe fast ground ruling him out. This latest bulletin seems to imply that even good ground could be an excuse. |
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Food for thought.
The gap between Galileo and Dubawi in European sires championship is around £200,000, moreover, I don’t think it has gone unnoticed that if by chance Golden Horn were to win you would be looking at Cape Cross (£2m behind) gaining around £2.5m, and then what would happen if his Agent Murphy sneaked a place. Basically the redoubtable Mr Magnier (It has nothing to do with the ‘lads’) cannot depend on a mare with known back and foot problems, however impressive she was, when it comes to winning the blue ribbon title, and certainly, in preference to the boys in blue. Everyone knows Ballydoyle has track replicas and Order of St George will have been on the Longchamp gallop a few times before the 1st October supplementary stage. This mightily progressive horse is the equivalent of Obi-Wan Kenobi – Mr Magnier’s only hope. To be honest I wouldn’t put it past the indomitable Ryan Moore making a comeback at Newmarket next week, in order to set up a spine-tingling Sir Lester and Royal Academy copycat within a fortnight of his return. Win or lose this Galileo colt has to beat the Dubawi colts on the first Sunday in October. Incidentally, PP this morning introduced Order of St George in their Arc market at 20/1. |
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Just had a read of some of this thread and to be honest there isn't alot i can add that the market doesn't already know.
One thing that is clear though is that Madhu appears to be obsessed!! For what its worth i'm on New Bay e/w. Good luck all. |
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Layingisthewayforward-
There always has to be someone snide who takes a snipe without a debate on the matter. I bet you have a history of that though, if it is not a little joke on your part. Bear in mind he who laughs first laughs loudest; he who laughs last, laughs longest. I may be completely wrong but what’s your argument against my crystal ball. Cat got tongue? |
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Gosden putting people away imo... if he is fit he should run and the race needs him, as it is already thread bare class wise anyway...this comment after his latest race below just proves he has put the punter away and yes i am one...i don't see how the champion stakes over in inadequate trip is the race for him and being an old cynic i wonder whether all is well with the horse and this is just a cover up to the horse probably having an issue because if it isn't why be scared of a thread bare field of average group 1 horse, bar treve of course! we will see but it is disappointing for the great race all the same
There’s no reason not to go to France with him,” Gosden said. “We’re perfectly aware he’s given this 7lb penalty away, he’s won well and we’re happy to get a nice prep race at home rather than travelling for it and then having to come back to travel again" ffs on your comments above - i take it in your own mind it helps your bets for the race but spare us the twaddle |
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shame about karaktar not making the race i had him for the race at a few fancy prices but just completes a miserable day and just shows why i don't bet ante post much anymore
lesson learnt |
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sounds like Gosden won't run both - if it's at all on the soft side then JH otherwise GH.
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Listen, to me it's fascinating to see Golden Horn - the undoubtedly best 3yo from these shores we've seen in a few years go and take on the mighty Treve.
Watching Jack Hobbs run valiantly into a place doesn't set the pulse racing nearly so much. |
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And as for 'My Bets' ... If you look back through this thread you'll find I was very early arguing very strongly for Found, and she's still my biggest winner.
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I can't believe that JG is considering doing the opposite of what appears the best for each horse. JH is clearly a 12f horse, is a galloper with an action ideally suited to softer ground, and has been talked of as an Arc horse, and has been given a light campaign ideally suited to the Arc. GH on the other hand, has had 3 tough races since his Derby win, all over 10f , and is clearly suited to fast ground.He was even pulled from the King Georgge because of fears that 12f on soft ground would be against him.
To talk of GH for the Arc and JH for the Champion seems perverse and illogical. JG appears to be basing his decidion on the state of the ground at Longchamp and the fact that Treve goes well on soft. Since when does the presence of one horse in the Arc put off trainers, I wonder. The race has had a number of turn-ups, it is a huge prize and many consider it to be the best 12f turf race in the world. Bizarre decion making. For the record, the ground for the past 66 years has been given as Heavy 9, soft 16, good/soft 11, good 20, good/firm 7, firm 3.I've compared the ground with the trials day for 38 of the last years. The ground for the trials this year was given as soft. There have been 8 occasions where the ground was given as soft/heavy on trials day. Subsequently, following 7 of those soft ground trials the Arc was run on a similar description and only once was the Arc run on faster ground and that was described as good. In fact, it is true to say that on more than half of Arcs were run on the same ground as trials day.My forecast? It is better than evens that this years Arc will be run on soft ground using the offial description. I think that we have to bear in mind that French going descriptions do not exactly match ours. They preserve a strip against the far rail which is not used until the race itself on the Sunday. My time ratings nearly always to suggest that it rides a degree fatser than the offical description.Nevertheless, if JG is waiting for the ground to dry out to offially good, the chances are that he will be disappointed. |
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sounds like Gosden won't run both - if it's at all on the soft side then JH otherwise GH.
A_T, that's how it sounded before, but now we're being told that good to soft will be ok for GH to run, the conclusion being that JH won't be running even on good to soft ground, which is a clear shift from what Gosden was saying after Jack Hobbs won his trial. If there was a market on the ground I'd have good to soft as the favourite. |
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I mean the real state of the ground, not necessarily the official description.
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fair comments sandown
it seems strange to me for godolphin to swerve a horse race for an inferior race over an inadequate trip with a horse supposedly trained for the race...personally i can only think something isn't quite right with the horse and the champion gives them more time, gosden also mentions the breeders cup which is normally run on a road as an option, comedy gold that one...no matter how you cut it gosden has put everyone away and it surprises me that godolphin who are not known for running scared of one or 2 horses in a big race, are in agreement with him...anyway very disappointing for the race all the same and this is the arc de triomphe we are talking the biggest race run in europe ffs 20 Sep 15 14:10 Joined: 27 Oct 07 | Topic/replies: 594 | Blogger: ffs's blog Listen, to me it's fascinating to see Golden Horn - the undoubtedly best 3yo from these shores we've seen in a few years go and take on the mighty Treve. Watching Jack Hobbs run valiantly into a place doesn't set the pulse racing nearly so much. brilliant - so connections of placed horses in the arc down the years have been disappointed... these comments also back up your double you have had with golden horn for the race...i hate this type of junk written on the forum to back up peoples bets and condoning a trainers actions because it suits that persons wager and also shoves it up others who may have bet the horse |
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condoning a trainers actions because it suits that persons wager and also shoves it up others who may have bet the horse
Harry, take it up with John Gosden, not me. Please leave it out. |
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one other consideration - Jack Hobbs' stud career would get off to a much better start with a 10f win in the Champ Stks than a place in the Arc.
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Ditto Harry and Sandown.
I also think Gosden is playing silly buggers re-routing Jack Hobbs to a tin pot Champion over an inadequate trip but the alarm bells went off for me when he ran him at Kempton instead of the obvious trial in the Prix Niel, the most significant Arc trial for 3yo’s (I think all Monsieur Fabre's Arc winners won the Prix Niel, except Peintre Celebre who came second in that race- he would have got a good line on New Bay in conditions that would be likely come October). All his talk about long range weather forecasts or the Breeders’ Cup is p issing in the wind. Again I would hypothesise this has more to do with the Darley, Dubawi and the European sires championship. He would have a much better chance of placing than Postponed on soft ground and there are some excellent horses that have ‘valiantly’ been placed in the Arc. |
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I've always considered JG to be a highly intelligent,honest and excellent communicator. Given that, I wonder if his thinking is influenced by the fact that GH will most likely be retired at the season end and JH will probably be back next year? He doesn't want them to meet again and so this is GH's one and only shot at the Arc.GH has proven himslef against older horses at 10f, winning the Arc would be extra breeding kudos. JH has next year and as he looks as though he might mature later than GH, his chance might be greater in 12 months time.If someone asked JG directly why , he would almost certainly explain.
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Sorry Sandown- Proven himself against older horses? In knocking a delicate Free Eagle out of the way and a beating regressive The Grey Gatsby has no depth and deserves minor/no kudos respectively.
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Madhu.
The record books will show that GH won the Eclipse & the Irish Champion. No-one (i.e. breeders) ever looks into the strength of the field . |