Eight evens or odds-on horses won the Arc, but fifteen did not.

Year    Fin    Name    Odds/1
1945    2    Ardan    0.1
1960    6    Charlottesville    0.4
1970    2    Nijinsky    0.4
1935    4    Brantome    0.5
2006    3    Deep Impact    0.5
1985    2    Sagace    0.6
1947    5    Tourment    0.7
1959    10    Herbager    0.7
1987    8    Reference Point    0.7
1941    3    Djebel    0.8
1942    6    Le Pacha    0.8
1979    3    Troy    0.8
2000    4    Montjeu    0.8
1963    6    Relko    0.9
1991    8    Generous    0.9

Thanks kincem, you have supplied some firm evidence which illustrates how difficult it is to beat this racing game. Evens or odds on chances have won 35% of their races. The Arc is not an easy race to win.

The question you pose figgis is not easy to explain. For starters, we can't know for certain before the event whether a horse will improve or not, or regress or not.Even if we call that correctly, it may or not be by the required amount to change the outcome. We can't be sure about how the race will unfold, or what chance event might occur.

So, its possible to set up a predicted result under those assumptions where there is still a large degree of error possible resulting from the calculations and from chance factors.

I don't think that I could ever price any horse race up with a 1.1 favourite. Let alone the Arc.I ahve priced up races where I consider the most likely winner to be odds on but I don't think that I have ever gone below 1.5

Madhu - so going by your hypothesis - a win in the Long Distance Championship (also a group winner for Galileo - there are more important statistics breeders use than overall prize money you know - why was Monsun 250K !?) - vs 4th in the Arc for prize money, 4th in the Arc is much harder for OOSG to achieve, so they'd route him to Ascot.

ffs

Whilst I agree that the horses you mention (I would add JH if he runs) are the most likelyto beat Treve, I would never rule out anything from any race. If it runs it has some sort of chance.Solemnia was 33/1  Danedream 20/1 Marienbard 16/1 Urban sea 37/1CXaroll house 20/1 All Along 17/1 just to name a few. I'm sure that kincem can do better than that list.

Probably, but that's the markets opinion and kincem has shown how well the market has done (or not) with odds on chances

Most of those odds on shots were before my time but of the latter ones, Reference Point was a similar situation to the one we have with Golden Horn. He went there after a hard season and a tough race in the St Leger, which was below his best performances. Unfortunately that didn't lead me to backing Trempolino. Generous was a similar case and I did back Suave Dancer against him, who was going into the race off the back of a career best performance in Ireland. Montjeu was odds on but that race certainly wasn't considered a one horse race with Sinndar going off a well backed 2/1 second fav, another going into the race off a career best.

Nothing is ever a gift, and I have the burned fingers to prove it

No one race result can ever prove if a price was a gift or not, but I'm sure if I could get 2.1 regularly about horses where your 4 factors applied it would be Christmas every day.

Also Sagace did actually pass the post first.

There's a few quid available for Found on here at around 24 and 25, if I fancied her I'd be snapping that up. It's interesting that there aren't many takers for those prices even with the possibility of a trade out later.

I'd say evens or even 4/5 is about the right price for Treve, or at least it would be on the day, the current price makes no allowance for the possibility something could go wrong before the big day. If the ground is good to soft and Jack Hobbs is pulled out evens could even be a touch of value.

Big fan of golden horn to would love to see that horse running in the breeders cup classic.
End of the day think the ground would be more suitible and plus golden horn against american pharoe?
If he could beat ap it would get like a zillion views on youtube the breeders would make a fortune

But if that situation was repeated today then Sagace backers would collect, unless betting on exchanges of course, so for betting purposes it would be classed as a result.

ffs –

I’ll attempt to address your convoluted last thread - Madhu - so going by your hypothesis - a win in the Long Distance Championship (also a group winner for Galileo - there are more important statistics breeders use than overall prize money you know - why was Monsun 250K !?) - vs 4th in the Arc for prize money, 4th in the Arc is much harder for OOSG to achieve, so they'd route him to Ascot- one point at a time. Have had a few and its late.....

1. My hypothesise concerns Coolmore versus Darley and the European Sires’ championship based on overall prize money. I don't quite understand where you are exactly going with your statement - there are more important statistics breeders use than overall prize money you know. Stallion details, stud fees, stud record, pedigree analysis, nicks, average winning distance? Is that advice as a putative owner of a mare?  How and what have you bred successfully statistically?

2 Your question -Why was Monsun 250K !?

Monsun’s status as a European premier sire (in the top 4 or so of the most expensive) happened because he was a leading influential sire, almost certainly solely responsible for Germany’s breeding renaissance. His exponential rise was constituted by the international success of Shirocco (£1.4M) in the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf , producing the best horse in Europe in 2007 PoW winner Manduro (5yo £1m),  and the mare Stacelita (£1.5m), a  Prix de Diane winner that became a US champion-grass-female in 2011; his sales statistics and his relative uniqueness in having a traditional German pedigree with German staying power. I believe he also had the highest percent stakes-winners-to-foals ratio (3yo’s+) of any contemporary international stallion.  He was blind before his twilight years, an outstanding German sire, and gained due posthumous recognition and crowning as a chef-de-race master of the thoroughbred horserace breed, and may he rest in peace.

3 Concerning winning the Long Distance Championship versus 4th in the Arc for prize money- right that is £178,636.50 or £237,916.67. Well that’s not a difficult mathematical problem for us is it?

4 Moving on to your notion of 4th in the Arc is much harder for OOSG to achieve, so they'd route him to Ascot- I would hazard a guess that it is highly unlikely that Mr Magnier et al, sitting at a round table at Coolmore discussing the merit of whether this highly progressive colt has a chance of winning the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe,  will have come to such a hasty and ill-thought-out dismissal.   It is common knowledge that Coolmore wins the prestigious European sires' championship perennially. The formidable Coolmore syndicate, more or less, have the Derby in their pocket and have trampled Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley/ Godolphin breeding operation for all the years I can remember. With the championship this year running to the wire and the potential of £476,250.00, £952,500.00, or £2,380,833.33; of course Order Of St George is under consideration for the Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe. Your understanding of the Aidan O'Brien quote referring to the  ‘Melbourne Cup/Australian angle’ fails to acknowledge  a key part “…we have to make a final decision on Order Of St George.”.  Moreover, incidentally no 3yo has won the Melbourne Cup since Skipton in 1941.  Furthermore, you seem to have set aside the altruistic kincsem’s statistic- those who have won one or more Group races (or equivalent) over 14f, 15f ,16f+ before their Arc win- and his conclusion of winning a race does not prevent a horse from winning another race.

By the way ditto Figgis, your statement on Found - Depends on the runners, but assuming it's G/S and Golden Horn runs then if he's 7/1 I'd give her a good chance to improve again to beat him and so 14/1 tops, is ludicrous. I wonder if kincsem would be so kind as to provide a statistic on past Arc winners who have initially moved up in distance from 10f. I doubt she will take part. Ditto getinthere10.

I reiterate, why don’t you just wait and see sir, instead of leaving pointless page-long staggered snippets of repetitive critique and convoluted ‘twaddle’? I am not pretending to be an oracle; I am just opening up something to debate and fully acknowledge that we have been at different poles for some time now. You can throw any amount of s****ing sanctimonious twaddle my way later, if and when I have egg on my face.

Order of St George gone into quarantine for Melbourne Cup.

I assume that those short lists below are assuming that Legatissimo will not run. She would be my choice apart from Treve of everything turned up

Right eh... your humble servant in retrospect now has a slightly different evaluation than earlier that I thought you might kindly let me pass you by.

Five horses from Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle yard have been placed into quarantine with a view to competing at the Melbourne Spring Carnival in Australia. Leigh Jordon, international chief scout for Racing Victoria, said "The only thing I would temper that with is that they still have to get on the plane. "Albeit by putting them into quarantine, he (O'Brien) misses the Arc weekend with any of those horses. The latter part I slightly disagree with. Horses who enter quarantine, are allowed to use designated gallops where every piece of exercise is supervised by a separate vet and a dedicated team of staff.

A day or two ago, all three were going into quarantine, although O'Brien revealed that Bondi Beach, the promoted Ladbrokes St Leger winner, and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Kingfisher were the more likely runners at Flemington on 3rd November.

O'Brien said: "The three of them are possibles for the Melbourne Cup, obviously. They have to go into quarantine with us on Tuesday and they'll possibly go in anyway.  "It's looking very possible that Bondi Beach and Kingfisher will go and we have to make a final decision on Order Of St George. What do any of you kind souls think?

Interestingly, my earlier visualisation of  Ryan Moore doing a Sir Lester and Royal Academy may happen-  Since he has ridden work for first time since suffering a neck injury in July. He looks like being available for Arc. What do you think on consideration of the chances of a shed-load of Galileo's turning up here  there and everywhere and romping home?

Effect of draw article by Simon Rowlands -- published 23rd September 2015-

https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/rowleyfile-investigates-the-prix-de-l%E2%80%99arc-de-triomphe-draw-2392015

so - the decision according to Madhu was "run him in a 2mile handicap, or the most prestigious all-age turf race in the world"  ... hmm ...

Oh you are so graceful in your premature one-upmanship ffs, steady on , it ain't over till it's over. Who really knows, two more forfeit stages, a confirmation of entry, and a supplementary period three days before to come.

Madhu - there's no one-upmanship, just a discussion about horses - you weren't very graceful when I voiced my doubts.

But, on the Galileo vs Dubawi issue - it is somewhat relevant. Posterity and Trophies mean a lot to Coolmore, now they have such a stranglehold on breeding and racing. That's why I think they'll be reluctant to let Order of St. George leave.

According to Johnny Murtagh the only day he saw John Magnier nervous was when **** went for the 4th Ascot Gold Cup. Historically that's a very important trophy - of course it was the premier race of the Royal meeting - and in Order of St. George potentially they have a horse who could dominate that scene for years.

I'd say the trio are in quarantine and two will travel - if it turns up soft then Order of St. George will probably go, but as is likely if the going is fast then Bondi Beach will go as no1.

I can sort of see the argument for Found, pretty much based on her run at the meeting last year, but a few things worry me.
1/ it will be her 3rd race in 7 weeks
2/ breeding would suggest on the dam side that 10f is her optimum trip
3/ this looks like an afterthought from Coolmore. Over the last few years, they seem to have targetted their better horses well, then They get greedy and try and win other big races without correctly prepping the horse. Camelot springs to mind and a 4yo who name I forget, but has been campaigned at the highest level from 6-10 without success, but is only a group 3 nag. IMO, found is running because they have no other suitable alternatives.

John Gosden is a trainer I like to listen to, but my worry about him is he willing to sacrifice Jack Hobbs career for Golden Horn? In the way that Coolmore sacrificed Adelaide for Australia. I don't think he knows! because like the others, they're scared of 1 horse,who's trainer public ally stated, pre season, what her agenda for the season was going to be. Maybe, Mr Gosden and Definatley Coolmore could learn something from Criquette Head.

Ffs- friends then…

What do you now after the St Leger appeal Galileo-  £5,540,885 - £400,000 versus £5,297,893. = Dubawi regains lead in sires' championship over Coolmore resident - who has topped the table of European sires by prize-money for the last five years. Galileo’s knight Order of St. George can’t go gallivanting down under to a race he can’t win, given his weight and being a 3yo; he’s on the replica Longchamp gallop every day and tucked up at night on 6ft of hay in silk pyjamas, in the nearby secluded stable facilities. And this Ryan Moore analogy to Sir Lester and his return to racing after 5 years, and riding the winner of the Breeders’ Cup within 10 days of his return is part of the equation- Why now?.