I'd say that Found must be a leading contender as she's just finished 3rd in the Irish champion stakes and could improve for a step up in trip and she looks the best of the 3yo fillies, I'd be looking to have her on side on the day if she's the price she is now but I'm not tying myself down to anything.

I think if I was forced to have one bet on the race now then I'd play Jack Hobbs at 8/1.

Found 37.05 for last 3f in Irish Champion fastest in race.
I would think Highland Reel ran up to his French Derby 2nd and Pleascach is an Irish guineas winner and to me the time looked good compared to last 3 races even if they did get to race on fresh ground for the
champion stakes.

Found had been given a hold up ride though and obviously didn't have the interrupted run Free Eagle had so not too surprising she finished relatively fast, and let's face it the others weren't up to much for a Gp1, with TGG looking a spent force. I have the final time performance 10lbs lower than Golden Horn's very best, although whether he can still run to that level even in a more strongly run race I'm not sure.

Looking at the Arc for each way purposes then Flintshire is a huge price. I know he's limited and a bit one paced at the highest level but if one or two don't fulfil their potential or have had enough for the year and the race is run at a good clip he'd have to have a good chance of making the frame again.

Yes, he wouldn't appeal if it comes up soft. If it does then it needs to be clear if it really is soft ground, which we won't really know until the day before, as French descriptions are far less reliable than even ours, with a tendency to overstate how soft it is.

Sandown - I think the big over-round is because of the speculative runners i.e. Intilaaq and Order of St George.
It'll even out once their prices become established.

2015* Cut and paste RP mistake.

No in RP today Benjy

Openheimmer giving caution, punters should bet "with a run"

So mentioning America,  not a waist of time?, the horse wants 12f on firm ground, I can imagine most trainers would be entertaining America given they believed those were the conditions their charge needed.

I looked at the 50 years from 1965 to 2014 to see how 5 year old and over did in the race (50years x 3 places).

1st (2); 2nd (13); 3rd (6)

Year___Fin___Name (Age)
1966___2___Sigebert (5)
1969___2___Park Top (5)
1969___3___Grandier (5)
1975___1___Star Appeal (5)
1977___2___Balmerino (5)
1982___2___Ardross (6)
1984___3___All Along (5)
1985___2___Sagace (5)
1987___3___Triptych (5)
1988___1___Tony Bin (5)
1988___2___Mtoto (5)
1989___3___Saint Andrews (5)
1993___3___Opera House (5)
1997___2___Pilsudski (5)
2002___1___Marienbard (5)
2003___2___Mubtaker (6)
2005___2___Westerner (6)
2006___2___Pride (6)
2008___2___Youmzain (5)
2008___3___It's Gino (5)
2009___2___Youmzain (6)
2013___2___Orfevre (5)

It is a big exercise to list the 5yo+ for the 50 years.  I have the books.
My guess is many were pacemakers, or social entries, especially in the earlier years.
I might run all the entries in the 50 years against my Group winners database.
I suspect the 5yo+ were two groups: previous winners/placed; pacemakers/social.

(Likely to get soft ground ..)

Why risk travelling to America in case he got travel sickness, why risk racing if he got injured (especially if he wasn't getting his ground) - A win in the Arc or at Ascot on Champions Day would be a good farewell and give the horse a bit more goodwill, but like I said, he has nothing to prove.

One important factor from Sunday's trials has not really been discussed and yet it will have an important effect on the runners taking part and the outcome. The state of the ground.

The commentators went to town describing it variously as "attritional, holding" whilst the official description was given as "very soft."

Certainly the jockeys picked up mud and there were divets coming up. Fast it was not. Good it was not. But the times did not show that it was "very soft" either.Personally, I doubt that it was soft as it was for the trials in 2013 and certainly not as soft as for the Arc that year.

However, looking back over the years, if the ground is in anyway on the soft side for the trials it is highly unlikely that it will dry up for the main day. The last time I saw that happening was back in the early 90's. The long range forecast is useless at this stage but I think it will be either like Sunday was or softer come Arc day.Not fast, for sure. Good at best.

Given that, I cannot see Golden Horn being given the gig. I think Jack Hobbs is much more likely to run than GH. It will also not help Flintshire, and Free Eagle must be a doubt as must Postponed.

Treve  will be happy and we now know that  NB will be not be inconvenienced either. (Did anyone else think that his action is quite rounded anyway. )Found will be OK as well.

I'm seeing the race now between Treve, NB, JH & Found.

yad hope for a reasonably small field as opposed to previous years and may the best horse win,like New Bay each way,Im sure Fabre has left him with a bit left in the tank..

Do you think Postponed may have had too hard a race there? they went a proper pace in that race and finished slowly. Fabre saying in RP today that an easy trial is what you want.

Some punters might want to oppose Treve because they think she's not guaranteed to run to form, which goes for any horse, no such thing as a cert, etc, and they think the price doesn't allow for that, which is fair enough. If you're opposing her for form reasons, however, then even while accepting that last year's Arc form wasn't among the best renewals we've seen you've still got to be thinking that one of the runners in this field can better that form.

Is Found's form any better than Taghrooda's was? I just don't see that, so while there's a case to be made that the big prices on here offer some value she still can't realistically have a single figure chance on known form. I'd say Golden Horn's best form gives him a chance of running Treve very close on these wfa terms, but at the same time the chance of him repeating his absolute best (because he'll need to if Treve is on form), or even improving on it, has to be slim after such a season, imo.

With New Bay you're trusting that he hasn't yet reached his peak, still has the potential to be a top horse and given his trainer and the ideal prep it will all come good on the big day. I may have a saver on him as I fear he's the unknown quantity here but while he might prove himself on the day I can't say I'd be surprised if he didn't even figure in the first three on racecourse form. Maybe Jack Hobbs has improved again after the break he was given but you'd have to back him in hope rather than any evidence of that. Postponed is a decent horse but exposed, it could be argued he's value each way odds but not much else and the same goes for Flintshire. Apart from maybe quibbling over a point or two here and there it's difficult to say the market has it wrong with the rest.

Yes, sorry, I missed out Free Eagle, and I agree it seems he'd have beaten Found. I have him better than Postponed but don't believe he's improved from 3 to 4 and have him similar to Flintshire. He could be backed with place chances but to think he can beat Treve you'd have to be reckoning that she doesn't run to form rather than him having any realistic chances on the form he's shown.

Figgis

Its all about price for me and I cannot see why/how NB is 3 times the price of Treve. I have them much closer than that even if I make Treve the most likely winner.

I'd say 5/1 is no more than fair for a horse that I'm not confident of grabbing a place.

If that were my view then I would want a double figure price before backing.