Totally agree with CCM, the best flat racing day of the year and it's only 4 Euros to get in plus you get a free race card/book as well. Get yourself down to Longchamp Barnesy, you will not regret it!

Try and get there early if you want to get a Racing Post. As I recall one of the big bookmakers had a supply in their on track shop.

I tried on the Champs Elysee but only got the previous day`s copy.

Dont have a racebets account but surprised they are going 4/5 Treve for the Vermeille.

Don`t think the plan is to win the Vermeille necessarily.

The 4 euros entry on Arc day does not get you everywhere. There is a municipal reserved stand that costs 100 euros. I have my ticket already.

Yeah, it's all been a bit tentative, hasn't it? The place market is even worse.

Liquidity on the site isn't all dead though, I noticed a few tasty bets laid on the 1000gns.
Probably arbs, but it still means that someone got on when the bookies wouldn't have let him.

What do you want to bet, if you don't mind me asking?

And what price?

Sent you a pm. Doubt I can help, the market's quiet, as you said.

Time for some thoughts on the market at this stage.

Treve.
Surely 3.0 is a poor price for an A/P bet  with 5 weeks to go. The age factor alone (terrible record for 5 yr olds 2 wins from 89 runners since 1988) is enough for me to be hesitant even about a mare as talented as Treve. Imo she didn't improve to win last year, I don't expect her to improve this year either, why should she, although she is lightly raced with just 11 runs? She is a lay for me right now.

Golden Horn
14.5 is too big a price for this horse given its form so it seems that the market is not expecting it to run. Even if it does I would be worried that it will run flat. Leave alone  for now.I can't lay it at that price.

Jack Hobbs
This is being given a French-style preparation by Gosden. It will arrive fresh, will not be hindered by ground and must run well. At 8.0 I can argue a case for this one.

New Bay
Trained by the master trainer Fabre, given the classic prep, and although it has to improve 6lb more  on the ratings than JH who is to say it won't? Has to be considered at 10.5 although that price is taking any improvement into the calculation.

Free Eagle
On the ratings this one should be shorter than 18.0 so although it looks tempting there is an element of doubt for me. Weld has a terrible record with his French runners compared to his record elsewhere, so I'll just be having a small stake on this for the time being.

Time Test
On its form prior to York this has a chance hugely better than the 200.0 being offered so I guess it looks like a non-runner right now. A few quid only just in case.

Ampere
Possible Fabre second string. At 75.0 its over-priced so a few quid only for insurance purposes.

Found
I think that 20.0 is its price and should be backed proportionate to that.Its improving will like the trip and can handle the ground either way.

Rest
Lumped together the rest are unappealing at around 9.0 for the lot but there are some possible  hidden gems within there. For example, this time last year I was really keen on the chance of Ecot but he ran badly in the race itself after winning his trial with style. He needs some cut so I would forgive his Ascot run. He is now available at 120.0. On his best form he would be no more than 25.0 at best in my book.You take a chance on it running I guess.

So, in sum, I think Treve is a lay and doing that gives me some ammunition to back a few others who look as though they could improve  especially receiving weight off the mare.The trials will, as usual, change the picture and heavy A/P money will have to wait until then.But,the past few years have shown that waiting until the day of race when you know the all-important draw and ground is the best way to play the race now imo, so that's when I will get seriously involved.

If winning in 2014 was a huge training feat, then Treve winning again this year would be an amazing feat. The previous double winners (Ksar, Corrida, Tantieme, Ribot) were all retired without attempting a third win so Treve will be going into unknown territory here.She has had only 11 runs and she does appear to be an Autumn horse so all that is in her favour.She clearly has had her problems and I wouldn't put it past C.Head getting her to the race again in top form. But its all about odds and if enough rivals turn up there's a fair chance I can back her back at a bigger price on the day without the A/P risk, should I want to do that.

Get a bad draw and her price will go out 25%+ almost straight away, won't it?

I'm not knocking her - she won well - but she also received 3lb or more from every other runner.
She won't get that this year.

i'm with benjy here think she is actually a good price at the moment with the likely opponents and can see her being a lot shorter come race time(like sandown says though this is ante post, which needs factoring in))...she isn't my kind of bet but has had an ideal prep for the race and see no reason why she wouldn't go well...if i were a layer i'd be more keener to lay her shorter on the day

sandown out of interest on the 5 year old stat (terrible record for 5 yr olds 2 wins from 89 runners since 1988) how many of those have been mares claiming the allowance?

Harry

Assuming the 22% of runners being F&M holds then there would have been 19-20 runners who were older F&M i.e 5+ since 1988 with obviously no winners. Does that help? Wont be far out.

sandown she isn't for me but like all markets every horse has a price and with the horses who are potentially in opposition, she is a fair price imo thx for the info though makes interesting reading

bit busy trying to find a friend a rat at the DBS sales

Sandown, need a bit of perspective with those stats imo. How many of those 5+ year olds were actually entitled to win the race on known form, or even go close?

From as many renewals as I remember (I'm young) the only horses who were even remotely fancied to do it aged 5 or over were the Japs or Youmzain. The latter was never really fancied but arguably unlucky not to do so anyway.

Think a lot of 5 year olds will go off in the 50/1+ region.

Not sure you'll find too many others going in to the race having won the previous two renewals and undefeated for the season also

benjy

I entirely understand how if you have a particular opinion which is at odds with the stats, you will look at possible explanations as to why the stats will be wrong. That's fair enough but they are the stats and you have to dismiss a very large number of runners as exceptions to even get remotely close to what you might consider to be acceptable to meet with your view. In this case, we might have expected around 8-9 winners in that period as against the one. However you look at it the stats would meet any significance test. I don't offer any explanation as to why this should be the case.

In point of fact there have been any number of top class older mares at short prices who failed eg Allez France in '75 at 7/4,Dahlia same year 9/1,Park top in '71 at 4/1and in more recent years names such as Pride (twice) Only royale, Opera House come to mind , all at shortish prices.

What is certainly true is that the circumstances of this race matter most but the a priori stats must influence the assessment considerably. Anyway, each to our own opinion.

I don't think Pride was particularly strongly fancied in the Arc. I can't remember much about Only Royale's chances that year, maybe she was well fancied but it doesn't stick in my mind. Opera House was a male. I think the only reasonable comparison would be Allez France going for a repeat win but that was before my racing days so I don't know the circumstances.

Treve at 2/1 ante post makes no appeal at all to me. However, unless Jack Hobbs shows improved form next time or one of the French runners really impresses me in a trial then I'd look upon the 2/1 as fair odds on the day, particularly if there's cut in the ground. Unfortunately I think she'll be shorter than that unless we see a wide margin easy winner in a trial.

Well to be fair to Jack Hobbs he is ok on most surfaces, and certainly the AW is fine with him. It's a little bit odd, but not something I'd overthink especially with John Gosden pulling the strings.

As for Treve, I suppose we all know she is a multiple C+D winner, on ground that's likely, is aimed at the race and has an abundance of class - that makes her a worthy favourite.

But Kingston Hill couldn't raise to the level of a standard Derby winner whereas Jack Hobbs is certainly that, allow for the draw and Kingston Hill would have been right at Treve last year, so ... I'm keeping friends w Jack Hobbs and sceptical of the 2/1 about Treve,

Definitely better value to be had in other runners at huge prices also.

Personally still think Found will be brilliant on the day, as she was last year.