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** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **

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Replies: 1,179
By:
harry callaghan
When: 25 Aug 15 19:26
interesting horse this found to be fair, i'm not sure how she will go, up in trip as she shows so much pace...she showed in a pretty slowly run affair that she retains her ability and may have improved a tad stepping up to 1m2f but it was a slowly run affair and the second was a sitting duck for the fillies turn of foot so the race has be treated with a tad of caution

she has always had a lot of scope and if we knew she was a definitely going for the big race, she would still have to step up considerably on what she has done but certainly isn't without hope against a pretty poor bunch and we are talking of a 25-1 chance so a fair shout for those that have had a little dabble...

will she get home is the big question from me in a properly run affair, we will find out in the trails and i personally would be happy to watch and judge after the trail before striking a bet, with stamina the main concern from me...there is always the breeders cup filly and mare turf if she fell short
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Aug 15 19:29
And Champions Day.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 25 Aug 15 19:38
agreed sint but that race is over 1m4f and if the petrol gauge hits the red in the vermeille the breeders cup would suit better...

i thought her run against cursory glance was her best run and on fast ground, she was just done for a turn of foot and hampered...what makes you think she wants soft sint? not sure i agree tbf
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Aug 15 19:41
Harry, I thought Answered went a decent enough clip, the time might've been slow compared to the 6 and 7f races but the round course is often softer and the time stands up well in comparison to the others. I thought it was a good test in the ground and personally I've always thought she'd be shown to best effect at 12f, whether she's good enough is another matter.
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Aug 15 19:45
She handles fast Harry, plenty of form on it, I just think she is equally as good on Soft whereas others are not. I think a trip with some cut are her optimum.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 25 Aug 15 19:56
difficult figgis i thought they didn't do a tap for 2f then just went a nice even gallop, i find races like this difficult to get a proper gauge on in all fairness and am guessing to the true value of the time...answered is a good stick in my book but he wouldn't of been suited to this speed test as he needs further and was sitting duck to the speed horse, so i am just happy to just say she appears in good form but just have a nagging doubt that she wont get 1m4f at a proper pace i could be wrong and like i say i do like her, i just need to see her do it before committing to the belief she will get the distance and will find out in the vermeille which is normally a proper test unlike the other trails run on trails day
By:
ffs
When: 25 Aug 15 19:58
Aidan after the race was pretty emphatic (as much as he ever is) that the Vermeille and the Arc are the next two races,

Garry O'Brien put it to him that she could run in the Irish Champion, and while he's always equivocal he said that Highland Reel would be more likely to go for that.

On the Stamina, her dam was a brilliant miler, but her brother Iniesta was a 1m4f horse and with the way she got 8f as a 2yo I don't think there's concern about that. The ground at the Curragh was very testing and she went through the line very strongly and wasn't pulling up quickly so for me she could be best over 1m4f. Certainly when a small 2yo filly gets 8f better than any in Europe I suspect she'll improve for a step up in trip when she's a year older and significantly stronger.
By:
ffs
When: 25 Aug 15 20:02

Aug 25, 2015 -- 12:20PM, Figgis wrote:


I don't see Treve as improved this year and I think last year's winning form is beatable. I'm itching to take her on but have yet to see anything I'd bet against her with confidence.


definitely agree with this - if the form to beat is Flintshire by 2L then I'm looking for something.

By:
sintonian
When: 25 Aug 15 20:09
She won a Group 1 at 2yo and has placed in two Group 1's at 3 both over an inadequate trip. She's always been highly regarded and has form to suggest she's pretty high class so i've just talked myself into a bet at 25/1 with Korral. Worth the risk for me.
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Aug 15 20:16
Also worth remembering AOB stated she had a ''cold'' or somekind of setback prior to the Guineas hence why she did not run and ran in a Group 3 the next day as it was an ''easier'' start point...i.e gallop! They could have save her all year for the Autumn races.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 25 Aug 15 20:21
what date is trails day at longchamp sint 6th??
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 26 Aug 15 08:14
Second Sunday in September.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Aug 15 10:16
Here's a new development. My last post will apparently have to be approved by a moderator before being allowed onto the thread.What is going on? If anything is likely to kill off a forum it is unnecessary censorship.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Aug 15 10:20
If it isn't allowed then I'm sorry to say but I will not re-submit because I didn't keep a copy. Thjere was nothing contentious at all so I do not know what is going on unless it is a glitch in the filter. If its lost, then I am mightily p****d off.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Aug 15 10:25
It happens occasionally, dunno why. I remember not so long ago when unbelievably the word Guineas was briefly being censored on this forum, the Godfather had recently been repeated on tv Crazy
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Aug 15 10:29
It was lengthy submission,Figgis, so very annoying. The essence of my post was that we can't expect Treve to have improved and that it is most likely that there will be a 3 yr old claiming the allowances that will beat her.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Aug 15 11:02
I've seen runners improve at the age of 5, usually it might only be a couple of pounds or so but occasionally it can be more, Noble Mission is a recent example of one who improved considerably. On the evidence of Treve's runs so far this season though it looks as though she's stayed where she was. She was good enough to beat the younger horses last year and at the moment the likely opposition doesn't look any stronger this time around, but there is still time.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Aug 15 11:37
Of the French opposition, I find New Bay difficult to get a handle on as the PDJC wasn't run in a great time and the form behind doesn't amount to much. Likewise the GPDP was a slowly run race and so the form of Erupt is a bit suspect. That said, the Arc hasn't always been run at a great pace in recent years and it could well be a horse that's given a good ride with the ability to quicken off a slow pace that comes out on top. Also both of those runners are relatively fresh which can prove decisive.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 26 Aug 15 12:01
One or two late Frenchies coming out the woodwork now, as is frequently the case.  Hopefully the French classic generation isn't all about New Bay and Erupt.

Ming Dynasty, Grey Lion, Migwar etc....
By:
bobbyjo
When: 26 Aug 15 15:44
The HM - any idea what Doumen is going to do with Sea Calisi ?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 26 Aug 15 16:14
Definitely Vermeille it seems bj.  She's in the Royallieu but surely won't drop down to that if she wins or runs well in the Vermeille, so then it'll be Ascot (entered) or Arc (would need supping).
By:
The Headmaster
When: 26 Aug 15 16:16
It was interesting to hear Criquette describe Sea Calisi as the best filly in France  I thought, btw.  Definitely wants adding to the Arc market.
By:
bobbyjo
When: 26 Aug 15 16:17
Interesting, thanks HM
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 26 Aug 15 18:08
Paddy have made a move and pushed Golden Horn right out to 12/1 today. Wonder what they've heard.
By:
bigmart
When: 26 Aug 15 20:04
i put up found before she coasted home on sunday for this backed it a 33s ew convinced been running her over too short imo , won a gr 1 over a mile as a 2 yr old in a fast time at the meeting
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Aug 15 20:15
Happens regularly Sandown, certainly has done to me but usually ok the next day.
By:
MrDinos
When: 26 Aug 15 20:17
Great Arc thread as usual.

I was also impressed with Found last Sunday and had an EW bet at 25-1 with PP Monday morning. I loved the way she traveled through out the race on the rain softened ground and seemed to go better the further she went. Watching last years Marcel Boussac again made my mind up.

Stepping up in trip to 12F is a slight worry but her full sister Magical Dream nearly won a G3 12f race at Cork, only losing by a head. All MD's best form was on Soft/Heavy ground, so hopefully that maybe a positive for Found as well... if it comes up Soft on the day. She seemed to go very well on Soft ground Sunday. Wink

As CCM posted 25-1 was too big and fair play Bigmart.

Sea Calisi is a very likeable filly and thought her Saint-cloud win was very good, I think she might prefer faster ground than what she encountered last week at York but she still ran a cracker. Still improving and would be a lively outsider if she runs and gets the right ground.
By:
Benjy
When: 26 Aug 15 20:19
I've decided to follow a few of you in on Found. Be interested in what other 3yo fillies turn up from GB & Ireland as well.

Sea Calisi was further back than intended at York and finishing well. Certainly of interest if supplemented.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 26 Aug 15 21:32
Haven't had a wholesale forum gamble for a while. Good to see one again! All she's got to do now is win Grin

Hope you are well MrD.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 26 Aug 15 22:35
cheers feltfair
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 15 07:51
Figgis, the confusion for me is reading Irish Derby where Jack Hobbs destroyed Qualify by 11.5 Lenghts, I presume Qualify did not perform? but no way could you entertain that Arabian Queen would have beat Golden Horn on that form-line,thus their must have been something wrong with Qualify that day?, or perhaps  Golden Horn a stone better horse over 12 Furlong? (very confusing this game)Confused
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 15 07:59
Just reflecting on Workforce getting beat by Harbinger,then 2 months  later winning the Arc, the excuse many gave for Workforce was the Ground when beaten?, it must have been more than just that?, but in Golden Horns position right now,the trip would be the excuse or perhaps not?, but surely a bigger factor combined with ground than the Workforce excuses?

Seek fast ground Mr Gosden,  in America.
By:
MrDinos
When: 27 Aug 15 08:05
I'm well, thanks. I hope it's the same with you too CCM. Cool

Hopefully she will run well in her next race and then go for the Arc. Like a few have suggested this race does look like it's been the long term plan. It was worth taking a chance at 25-1.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 15 09:15
MJ, the Oaks was run in a very ordinary time plus Legatissimo had just had a hard race in the Guineas. Personally I don't rate the Oaks form highly. For me, Qualify ran almost as fast when finishing eleven and a half lengths behind Jack Hobbs as she did when winning the Oaks, just one pound lower.
By:
penzance
When: 27 Aug 15 12:02
don't think its been the long time
plan,more of their colts ain't that good.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 15 12:08
I agree with penzance. They seemed determined to keep her at shorter trips early this year, one run over 7f and two at a mile. If she'd have achieved what they wanted in the mile Gp1s I seriously doubt we'd be seeing them taking this route. I still find that surprising though as I think most of us on here saw her as more of an Oaks filly.
By:
ffs
When: 27 Aug 15 13:24
Michael Tabor said on Arc day last year, Found is a Guineas filly who will definitely get further. Gleneagles won't get further. AO'B said the plan was to keep her to 1m until Ascot and back off and then up her in trip, that may have been influenced by her being held back before the Eng 1000 but whatever - When she's the best in Europe over 1m then after a year of growing and strengthening her best trip will be > 1m so why keep her to that ?
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 15 13:58
her best trip will be > 1m so why keep her to that ?

Which is the point I was making about how she was campaigned earlier on this season. It seems that last year she was considered a filly whose future would be over further than a mile, like many of us thought, although it obviously makes sense to try and bag a Guineas beforehand. On missing the English Guineas she was aimed at a 7f Gp3, probably in need of the race but when she didn't show enough toe to catch Pleascach in the Irish 1000 I thought a step up in trip would've been the obvious next move. Admittedly they already had Legatissimo for the Oaks but they haven't exactly been reluctant to run more than one in an Epsom classic before. It was the choice of the Coronation Stakes as a next race that I found odd, as there were still other chances to step her up, like the Irish Oaks and Pretty Polly.

Anyway, as I said I think she's almost nailed on to get the 12f, it's just I'm doubtful that the Arc has been a long term plan unless they say otherwise. O'Brien possibly saying it after the filly wins the race won't count Wink
By:
barnesey
When: 29 Aug 15 08:26
I'm looking to go to France for the first time for the Arc this year, is there tickets for different areas? And do I need to buy before I leave or can I buy on the gate or do they sell out?

Thanks for any replies
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 29 Aug 15 08:30
Barnesy. You just pay entry and that gets you everywhere. Not the distinction with different bits like at Uk tracks. Never too busy and pretty easy to get about. You can just pay on the door. Best days flat racing of the year IMO, hope you enjoy it!
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